Overvalued, Undervalued Trade Targets - Buy/Sell for Fantasy Baseball (Week 21)

August 18, 2023

Trade candidates to buy or sell in fantasy baseball after Week 21 of the 2023 MLB season. Ben Rosener lists overvalued and undervalued players to target or trade away.

Making the right trades can be crucial to championship success in fantasy baseball. It's almost as important as the draft, if not more. While most trades can have a significant impact on your fantasy team, it’s the deals where you acquire undervalued players and witness their production improve that can really tip the scales in your favor in terms of the standings.

The same can certainly be said about trading away players at the right time when they have the most fantasy trade value. Those deals could happen in the second week of April or the last week of August, but they’re impactful all the same.

Here are some candidates who are currently undervalued and worth pursuing in trades, as well as some overvalued players who you should consider dealing if they currently occupy a spot on your roster.

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Undervalued Players To Trade For

Joc Pederson, OF, San Francisco Giants

Since signing with the San Francisco Giants prior to the 2022 campaign, Joc Pederson has been a fixture either at the top of the team’s lineup or in the heart of it.

Last year, it wasn’t hard to see why. The veteran hit .274 with a .353 on-base percentage, 23 home runs, and three stolen bases in 433 plate appearances while finishing in the 80^th percentile or better in xBA, xwOBA, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate.

This year, the outfielder is batting .229 with a .340 on-base percentage and 11 home runs in an even 300 plate appearances. And while his surface-level metrics have changed a bit, Pederson has continued to make elite contact.

Let's play a quick game of spotting the (significant) difference between his two seasons. Really, outside of a few fewer barrels, Pederson is pretty much doing the same thing at the plate this year that he was last year in terms of contact.

• Joc Pederson In 2023: .262 xBA, .374 xwOBA, 12.9% barrel rate, 52.1% hard-hit rate, .423 xwOBAcon, 20.7 K%, 13.0 BB%.
• Joc Pederson In 2022: .266 xBA, .367 xwOBA, 15.1% barrel rate, 52.1% hard-hit rate, .443 xwOBAcon, 23.1 K%, 9.7 BB%.

He’s also continued to hit in decidedly fantasy-friendly spots in the Giants' lineup. All but 17 of Pederson’s 300 plate appearances this season have come hitting either first, second, third, or fourth.

And while the outfielder is just 7-for-43 with a 4.7% walk rate in 43 plate appearances this month, he’s also posting a 14.7% barrel rate and a 52.9% hard-hit rate during that span. If anything, that might make it easier for fantasy managers to complete a trade given the recent struggles. Because if anything, Pederson was a fantasy difference-maker in playoff races last season and looks poised to do the same once again. Just don’t let the surface numbers fool you.

Overvalued Players To Trade Away

Isaac Paredes, 1B, 2B, 3B, Tampa Bay Rays

With the calendar showing the middle of August, the real question with Isaac Paredes’ production this season is, can he maintain it?

The infielder is batting .246 with a .352 on-base percentage, 23 home runs, and a stolen base in 409 plate appearances. Except, you wouldn’t exactly know it if you just looked at his underlying metrics.

Paredes has generally been pretty good about not swinging and missing all that much (he owns an 18.6% strikeout rate and a 19.3% whiff rate) as well as taking free passes, as evidenced by a 10.5% walk rate. All three metrics rank in the 72^nd percentile or better. Where he hasn’t been as good this season is making consistent quality contact.

The 24-year-old is sporting a .312 xwOBA, a 29.5% hard-hit rate, and a 6.5% barrel rate. He’s logged just a .316 xwOBAcon so far as well. In fact, speaking of the low barrel rate, the fact that Paredes has connected on so many home runs isn’t the most common thing. Entering play Wednesday, of the 41 players with at least 20 home runs this season – including Paredes – only seven had a single-digit barrel rate. Of those seven, just one other batter – Corbin Carroll at 7.7% – has a barrel rate south of 8.0%.

It only seems like a matter of time until Paredes’ numbers start to falter. In reality, it might already be happening. The 23-year-old is batting just .210 with a .314 on-base percentage since July 1. Though, it is worth noting that he slugged 10 home runs while logging a rather low .174 BABIP during that stretch. At any rate, now might be the ideal time to trade him. If you acquire an above-average fantasy starting pitcher for Paredes, it’d be a definite win transaction-wise.

Cody Bellinger, 1B, OF, Chicago Cubs

Cody Bellinger has enjoyed a quality bounce-back season with the Chicago Cubs – and for fantasy managers – this season, batting .325 with a .377 on-base percentage, 18 home runs, and 17 stolen bases in 374 plate appearances.

He’s by no means as much of a serious regression candidate at the plate as Paredes is, but he probably won’t continue to be this good moving forward. The 28-year-old is batting .325, yet owns a .271 xBA. He’s benefiting from a rather high, but not incredibly unsustainable, .341 BABIP. And oh yeah, there’s a significant gap between his .391 wOBA and .336 xwOBA.

With the stolen base numbers and eligibility at first base and in the outfield in Yahoo! leagues, the veteran certainly brings enough to the table to continue to be a quality fantasy option. This fact remains even if his production numbers take a bit of a hit.

However, there might not be a better time to trade the outfielder and first baseman, who is hitting a staggering .399 with a .439 on-base percentage, 11 home runs, and seven stolen bases in 180 plate appearances dating back to June 27. His underlying metrics during that span, just like his underlying metrics for the season, sum things up rather well in terms of lack of sustainability – at least where power production is concerned.

• Cody Bellinger Since June 27: 127 plate appearances, 6.8% barrel rate, 30.6% hard-hit rate
• Cody Bellinger This Season: 371 plate appearances, 6.4% barrel rate, 31.2% hard-hit rate

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