RADIO
Alright folks, the big week before Opening Day is upon us and that means that draft lobbies are popping off like Who Let the Dogs Out just came on at a party. What? That’s not a thing? Don’t be ridiculous.
I have plenty of teams already with a few more to be drafted and figured this was a good time to break out the barometer and speak on who I found myself getting on multiple teams.
2016 "Ride or Die" Squad Members
Giancarlo Stanton (OF, MIA)
So much for subscribing to safer picks early on. For so many years I have been a proponent of just grabbing a healthy floor in the early rounds and I’ve been successful, so what the heck is this?
The fear of fragility has pushed his stock down just enough going into this year where I feel comfortable taking a shot here. In a snake draft I was able to nab him with the 12th pick, and in two respective auctions I got him for less than most other conventional first rounders. We know the story by now, that he is a physical freak with 50 home run potential in a bat that has been bogged down by injuries.
Look I get it, but I’m definitely not holding the whole “fastball to the face” thing against him and quite frankly his hamate bone injury last year just means it can’t happen again (they remove the bone fragment). My main worry has been that he is simply too strong for his frame which makes him prone to soft tissue injuries, which were the main culprits from 2011-2013 for Stanton. Hamstring strains, an abdominal strain, a quadriceps strain, they really took their toll in those earlier years.
I think there’s a lot of profit to be had this year on Stanton, but I understand that I’m not a doctor and it’s still a risk. He hasn’t missed time with a soft tissue injury in 2014 or 2015 and there’s no rollover risk from the facial fracture in 2014 or the hand fracture that ended his season last year. He was able to start taking swings in December and hasn’t suffered any setbacks since. His spring has been fine and he’s powered a few homers in recent games.
I believe this year provides the best balance of risk/reward you can get on Stanton and I’m taking it. You can either join me at the punch bowl or laugh at me, your call.
J.D. Martinez & Justin Upton (OF, DET)
These guys are both heavy targets of mine heading into this season. They aren’t surprising anyone, but honestly I just believe they aren’t getting the respect they deserve. My friend recently had a draft where he was able to snag both of them, with Justin Upton falling to him in the sixth round! Okay, so part of that was ESPN’s default rankings I’m sure, but still that is ridiculous to me.
J.D. Martinez saw his average drop as the BABIP regressed from an insane .389 to a more realistic .339, but the power did not regress. His beautiful 43.3% hard hit rate only dropped a hair to 42.8% while the fly ball rate soared from 36.8% to 43.5%, making for a sustainable 20.8% HR/FB. His swing mechanics are sustainable and the adjustments are real, but he was “just a guy” for too many seasons where he still doesn’t get his due respect. In today’s age of buzzy prospects who have been touted for years before even reaching the majors, late breakouts can make for considerable profits.
Speaking of buzzy prospect types, Justin Upton has been a big name since his 2009 breakout. He’s as old as J.D. Martinez, turning 28 years old this season. Last season he nearly went 25/20 for the Padres, hitting 26 homers with 19 steals. It was fantastic to see the steals come back after back-to-back seasons with eight swipes in Atlanta. The average took a hit, and while some may look at the BABIP and conclude he’ll easily bounce back, well it could be a matter of his elevated fly ball rate (44.1%). This was also on San Diego, where he and Matt Kemp practically had to try to win on their own. Now he is poised to bat second in front of some guy named Miguel Cabrera and could very well post 100 runs, 25-30 homers, 85 RBIs, and 15 steals with a .260s average. I’m buying hard.
Okay these are pretty big names here that will be taken fairly rigidly across the board so how about some middle round names?
What a smart and fair question, thank you wise responder.
Shin Soo Choo (OF, TEX)
I expect the skills to continue to drop off a bit but I still find that he’s falling a round or two extra past the tenth round. If OBP is relevant to your leagues then you’ll want to target him even more. Hitting second with Delino DeShields Jr. on base ahead of you and Prince Fielder/Adrian Beltre behind you is prime position for counting stats. Choo doesn't steal anymore and it's possible that someone in your league will overpay based on his run + RBI totals from last season, but what I've encountered is draft rooms letting him sit for a while after names like Christian Yelich, Adam Eaton, Kole Calhoun, and Brett Gardner have gone. He seems to be the odd man out in that tier of players.
Jose Quintana (SP, CWS)
It isn’t as though Q doesn’t get love, as we have him nestled between Masahiro Tanaka and Jake Odorizzi as our SP31 in the RotoBaller consensus ranks (he’s ranked SP35 between Raisel Iglesias and Justin Verlander on FantasyPros), but there’s just something to be said for the consistency that he brings. If you went risky early and need some middle round safety, here’s your guy. 200 innings, 175 Ks, 3.30 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP seem pretty bankable at this point based on his past three seasons.
Here’s the kicker though, the White Sox improved their defense and quite frankly I think Quintana has been unlucky to only win exactly nine games in each of his last three seasons. It has deflated his value up to this point, but we know how wins can be. If that number jumps to say, 14, then I’d be thrilled grabbing him around the 11th or 12th round.
Patrick Corbin (SP, ARI)
Corbin’s strong spring has started to really put him on radars which will probably cut into that sweet profit margin, but there’s still fun to be had here. Our rankings peg him as the SP41, with me being the high man at #33 and my bold predictions article included him finishing as a top-25 SP. I like him. You’re not taking him to be your ace, but if he can give you 180 innings with a mid-3s ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 160 Ks then you’re sitting pretty out of the 15th round or so.
Kevin Pillar (OF, TOR)
Pillar is poised to bat leadoff for 2016’s version of Murderer’s Row in Toronto. Even if it were Ryan Goins leading off for them I’d probably have him here. Insert Pillar who has double-digit power and some wheels to steal? Yes please. Tell me why he can’t get 100+ runs, 12 homers, 60 RBIs, 25 steals with a .275 average. If you round out your outfield with Pillar then you’re in prime position to party.
Jason Hammel (SP, CHI)
Hammel is about as exciting as it gets for a pitcher entering his age-33 season. After a horrid 2013 he has posted two strong seasons in a row now with the peripherals to back them. While his ERA jumped from 3.47 in 2014 to 3.74 last year, he actually pitched much better. His strikeouts kicked up to more than a batter per inning (172 Ks in 170.2 IP), his walk rate dropped a hair (6.2% to 5.6%), and he induced soft contact at a higher clip (15.2% to 18.7%). He didn’t get lucky with homers, BABIP, or strand rate. His 3.45 SIERA looks like a decent expectation for 2016, and with the strikeouts and a very strong Cubs team supporting him, he could win 15 games with above average ratios and be a fantastic back-end rotation find close to the 20th round.
Trevor Story (SS, COL)
There isn’t much more for me to say about him. I’m blessed to be the news desk writer here at RotoBaller for the Rockies and I’ve been watching him all spring. His playing time isn’t guaranteed as they could open the year with Cristhian Adames at short to save on some service time, but Story is appropriately going around the 20th round which is a nice segue into his 20/20 potential from the MI slot. This is what late round flier dreams are made of.
Danny Valencia (3B/OF, OAK)
Valencia is getting written off by most everyone as an afterthought thanks to his having spent most of his six major league years as a platoon guy. Teams were wise to utilize him in such a manner as he had struggled against righties and dominated lefties. Well last season, at the ripe age of 30, Valencia started to square up righties as well. He still struck out more and walked less against them, but posted an insane .271 ISO vs. RHP against his .160 ISO vs. LHP. His BABIPs were nearly identical (.330 vs. LHP, .329 vs. RHP) so don’t throw that at me. He can play third base and outfield, something Oakland loves and fantasy owners can utilize. Even with some regression baked in, he’s earned some more ABs and could provide a sneaky shot at 25 homers with a .275 average in the last rounds for you.
Others of note:
Yasmani Grandal (C, LAD) - It's a shame he'll most likely start on the DL, but hopefully that forearm strain clears up quickly and the retroactive date can allow him to be activated on April 9th.
Brad Miller (2B, SS, OF - TB) - Very cheap power/speed combo guy with plenty of versatility. Love getting him late as Tampa Bay should give him steady playing time, something he's rarely seen. Don't discount what a consistent and reliable job can do for a guy.
Jean Segura (SS, ARI) - Yeah his spring is driving his price up, but if he can hold a spot on top of that Arizona lineup and steal some bases then I'm all for burning a late pick on him.
Devon Travis (2B, TOR) - Don't ever let your DL spots go unused. I could - and probably should - write a whole piece about that, but the point here is that stashing Travis is a favorite move of mine. Ryan Goins will man second for now but the job is Travis' when he returns. He demands the same pitch as Pillar in that if you can get a piece of that Toronto juggernaut then you should do so.
Vincent Velasquez (SP, PHI) - He has the kind of pitches that can get you more than a strikeout per inning and I will always target that talent. Update: Velasquez has been given the fifth rotation spot! Rejoice, rejoice. Those in leagues where wins are big pieces won't be as excited since he does pitch for the Phillies and he won't post a 3.00 ERA, but when you can get a starter this late with such upside then you grab him.
Francisco Rodriguez (RP, DET) - He just seems to be getting written off due to how long he's been around and being someone who once was great. He set the bar high with his prime and this can cause a great year like his 2015 to still go under-appreciated. As such, I find myself ending up with him even though I don't seek out relievers at all.
You may have noticed zero first basemen listed here. Interestingly enough, I have zero repeat ownerships of any one-bagger thus far. Stay tuned.
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