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Scott Cullen provides his NHL DFS prop picks for September 23rd, 2020 on Monkey Knife Fight. Make your DFS picks with his fantasy hockey advice.
The puck drops on Game Three of the Stanley Cup Final Wednesday, a great opportunity to play props and win with Monkey Knife Fight.
The Tampa Bay Lightning rebounded in Game Two of the Cup Final, jumping out to a 3-0 lead and hanging on for a 3-2 victory to even up the series after the Dallas Stars took the opening game of the series with a 4-1 victory in Game One.
Through the first two games, the Lightning have carried more of the play, with 59% of score-adjusted shot attempts and 55% of expected goals during 5-on-5 play. Can they continue that territorial edge in Game Three?
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TAMPA BAY-DALLAS
MORE OR LESS
Anton Khudobin MORE THAN 27.5 SAVES
Throughout the postseason, Khudobin is averaging 30.2 saves per 60 minutes and he has 28 or more saves in five straight games. The Lightning have generated 30.6 shots per 60 minutes in the playoffs, with the opposition recording 27.94 saves per 60 minutes. All of this steers towards the over.
Andrei Vasilevskiy LESS THAN 27.5 SAVES
While Vasilevskiy has played very well in the playoffs, posting a .929 save percentage, he also doesn’t face a lot of shots so Vasilevskiy has averaged 24.5 saves per 60 minutes in the postseason. He has recorded 27 or fewer saves in seven of the past eight games. From the Stars’ perspective, they have generated 29.21 shots per 60 in the playoffs, with opposing goaltenders averaging 26.23 saves per game. Given the typical shot distributions that Khudobin and Vasilevskiy have faced in the playoffs, it’s reasonable to see one recording more than 27 saves and one with fewer than 28 saves.
Nikita Kucherov MORE THAN 0.5 ASSISTS
Tampa Bay’s playmaking winger leads the playoffs with 22 assists and 28 points in 21 games but this isn’t an automatic over because Kucherov has put up those 22 assists in just 11 games, recording zero assists in the other 10 games. This is a slight lean more than an overpowering angle but it’s tough to ignore Kucherov’s overall productivity.
Victor Hedman 3.5 SHOTS ON GOAL + BLOCKS
Tampa Bay’s star defender has been attacking more offensively in the playoffs, averaging 3.19 shots on goal per game in the postseason. Paired with 40 blocked shots (1.90 per game) makes it pretty easy to like Hedman for at least four shots on goal plus blocks in Game Three.
RAPID FIRE
John Klingberg -0.5 fantasy points vs. Miro Heiskanen
Heiskanen has had a breakout performance in the postseason, producing 23 points in 23 games, generating 49 shots on goal. At the same time, he has slumped recently, with just two assists in the past seven games so that does open the door for Klingberg, who has long been the most productive blueliner for Dallas but started slowly in the postseason. Nevertheless, Klingberg has picked up his production lately, with six assists in the past four games and has 19 points and 39 shots on goal in 22 playoff games.
Brayden Point -0.5 fantasy points vs. Jamie Benn
Point has been a dynamic offensive leader for the Lightning, taking on even more responsibility with Steven Stamkos out of the lineup, and Point has 26 points and 55 shots on goal in 19 playoff games. He has been battling an injury suffered against the Islanders in the Eastern Conference Final so he has been held off the scoresheet in two of the past three games. Benn has turned in a vintage playoff performance, producing 18 points and 62 shots on goal in 23 games though he has been held without a point in each of the first two games of the Stanley Cup Final.
As a reminder, here are point totals when it comes to MKF fantasy hockey points:
OFFENSE:
Goals = 3
Assists = 2
Shots on Goal = 1
Blocked Shots = 1
Shootout Goals = 1
GOALIE:
Goals against = -1 pt
Save= 0.2 pts
