RADIO
Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey is one of my favorite sports to watch and play from a DFS perspective and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings for Tuesday, September 1st, 2020 at 7:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!
NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 9/1
- New York Islanders (-115) vs. Philadelphia Flyers (-105)
- Vancouver Canucks (+197) vs. Vegas Golden Knights (-235)
NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix
| Team | Rank GA | Rank SA | Rank GF | Rank SF | Total |
| Vegas | 12 | 24 | 24 | 7 | 19.5 |
| NY Islanders | 4 | 23 | 22 | 13 | 14.5 |
| Vancouver | 9 | 11 | 20 | 22 | 12.75 |
| Philadelphia | 3 | 21 | 13 | 18 | 14.75 |
The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the last column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.
Power Play Matrix
| Matchup | PP% | Opp PK % |
| New York | 13 | 14 |
| Philadelphia | 22 | 17 |
| Vancouver | 7 | 7 |
| Vegas | 8 | 18 |
The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank. The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the last column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents to ensure we get the correct data for each slate! The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the last column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.
NHL DFS Core Four
The Core 4 picks are to help you construct your cash game lineups while also giving you plays that you can use and build around in GPPs. Stacking is critical in NHL DFS so you might want to pair these suggestions with a linemate or two, especially when building your tournament lineups.
1) DFS Center: Mathew Barzal ($6,500 DK/ $6,100 FD)
The center position is an interesting position on this slate. While there are some good options, the centers on this slate have not been as consistent as other positions. Barzal has scored a point in three out of his last four games played which offers one of the best floors relative to everyone else at his position. In seven games against Philadelphia, Barzal has generated eight total points and is averaging 10.1 DK points per game.
Other Top Center Plays:
- Brock Nelson ($5,800 DK/ $6,300 FD)
- William Karlsson ($6,100 DK/ $5,800 FD)
2) DFS Winger: Max Pacioretty ($7,100 DK/ $7,900 FD)
Other Top Winger Plays:
- Mark Stone ($6,600 DK/ $7,400 FD)
- Jordan Eberle ($5,000 DK/ $5,200 FD)
3) DFS Defenseman: Shea Theodore ($6,400 DK / $6,500 FD)
Theodore provides the highest ceiling from all defensemen on this slate. He has been on quite a hot streak as of late since he has recorded seven points in just his last four games played while also taking 18 shots on goal during that span. On the season, Theodore has notched 11 points in just six games played against Vancouver (five of those coming on the power play) while also taking a total of 25 shots on goal. If you want the best overall play at the position, look no further than Theodore.
Other Defenseman Plays:
- Alexander Edler ($5,600 DK/ $4,600 FD)
- Ryan Pulock ($5,400 DK/ $4,900 FD)
4) DFS Goalie: Robin Lehner ($8,100 DK/ $8,700 FD)
Lehner carries the highest price tag on the slate but he also has been exceptional in the postseason which warrants his high cost. Lehner is 2-1 against Vancouver throughout the postseason with his two victories also being shutouts which is ideal from a fantasy standpoint. He is carrying a .952 save percentage against the Canucks and is averaging 20.4 DK points against them this postseason. With Vegas having the home-ice advantage, Lehner looks positioned to be one of the highest-scoring players on the slate and is viable in all formats.
DFS Value Plays
DFS Value Plays: Center
- J.G. Pageau ($4,800 DK/ $5,000 FD)
- Nicolas Roy ($2,700 DK/ $3,600 FD)
DFS Value Plays: Wing
- Alex Tuch ($4,600 DK/ $4,600 FD)
- Josh Bailey ($4,500 DK/ $4,900 FD)
DFS Value Plays: Defensemen
- Alec Martinez ($4,600 DK/ $3,900 FD)
- Devon Toews ($ 4,300 DK/ $4,000 FD)
DFS Value Plays: Goalie
- Semyon Varlamov ($7,700 DK/ $8,300 FD)
Top Team and Line DFS Stacks
We have similar situations on tonight's slate as both the Islanders and Golden Knights are up 3-1 in their series and are looking to close things out here in game 5. The Islanders are averaging 3.25 goals scored per game in this series while the Flyers continue to struggle on the offensive end. Philadelphia has only scored six goals in this series which averages out to be 1.5 goals per game. The best line for the Flyers has been their second line featuring Kevin Hayes. He has produced five points in his last five games played with three of those being goals. If the Flyers pull out a win, that means their second line was able to generate chances in their matchup. From the Islanders side, the Nelson line has played really well despite being matched up against the Flyers top line. They generated 16 total scoring chances in the first two games of this series while having five high-danger opportunities.
Vegas has looked pretty dominant throughout the series as they have posted two shutouts while scoring 15 goals throughout their first four games played. They return as the home team in this game which gives them the line matching advantage over Vancouver. Looking back at their two games played as the home team in this series, Vegas went 1-1 and scored a combined seven goals. As a whole, they averaged 12 high-danger scoring chances and 37 scoring chances in those first two games while being above 50 in the corsi department. The two lines to really target from Vegas are their top line and third line. The top line provides the most upside while the third line gets to pick on the bottom six for Vancouver. The Roy line for Vegas dominated their matchup in the first two games by generating 14 scoring chances while also creating seven high-danger opportunities. If looking for value, this is a great spot to look for in tournaments.
Top Stacks (In order):
- VGK1- Pacioretty, Karlsson, Stone
- NYI2- Beauvillier, Nelson, Bailey
- NY1- Lee, Barzal, Eberle
- VGK2- Marchessault, Stastny, Smith
Value Stacks:
- PHI2- Farabee, Hayes, Konecny
- VGK3- Cousins, Roy, Tuch
- NYI3- Johnston, Pageau, Komarov
