RADIO
Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey is one of my favorite sports to watch and play from a DFS perspective and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings for Friday, August 14th, 2020 at 2:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!
NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 8/14
- Arizona Coyotes (+170) vs. Colorado Avalanche (-200)
- Montreal Canadiens (+135) vs. Philadelphia Flyers (-155)
- Vancouver Canucks (+125) vs. St. Louis Blues (-145)
- New York Islanders (EVEN) vs. Washington Capitals (-120)
- Dallas Stars (+180) vs. Calgary Flames (-240)
NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix
| Team | Rank GA | Rank SA | Rank GF | Rank SF | Total |
| Philadelphia | 4 | 30 | 31 | 21 | 14.25 |
| Calgary | 27 | 11 | 30 | 11 | 17 |
| Vancouver | 26 | 1 | 25 | 25 | 15 |
| Washington | 31 | 16 | 21 | 14 | 18.75 |
| St. Louis | 8 | 28 | 17 | 16 | 21.5 |
| Colorado | 3 | 25 | 13 | 26 | 9.5 |
| Montreal | 20 | 23 | 12 | 11 | 23.75 |
| Dallas | 10 | 15 | 11 | 19 | 16.5 |
| Arizona | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 12.5 |
| NY Islanders | 21 | 23 | 5 | 23 | 19.75 |
The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the last column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents so for example, the Islanders GA and SA will get matched with the Panthers GF and SF.
| Matchups | PP % Rank | Opp PK % |
| Arizona Coyotes | 23 | 4 |
| Colorado Avalanche | 15 | 7 |
| Montreal Canadiens | 31 | 15 |
| Philadelphia Flyers | 8 | 22 |
| Vancouver Canucks | 5 | 27 |
| St. Louis Blues | 13 | 19 |
| New York Islanders | 28 | 21 |
| Washington Capitals | 22 | 9 |
| Dallas Stars | 8 | 14 |
| Calgary Flames | 1 | 28 |
The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank.
NHL DFS Core Four
The Core 4 picks are to help you construct your cash game lineups while also giving you plays that you can use and build around in GPPs. Stacking is critical in NHL DFS so you might want to pair these suggestions with a linemate or two, especially when building your tournament lineups.
1) DFS Center: Evgeny Kuznetsov ($5,500 DK/ $7,200 FD)
Kuz looks to be a great play on this slate as he will be centering the top line for the Capitals while also being apart of their top power play line. He is coming off of a six-shot performance against the Islanders in the opening game of their series and even notched an assist. While Nicklas Backstrom is out, Kuz while see an uptick in ice time which of course could lead to more opportunities and chances.
Other Top Center Plays:
- Sean Monahan ($5,900/ $6,800 FD)
- Nathan MacKinnon ($8,500 DK/ $8,600 FD)
- Kevin Hayes ($5,900 DK/ $5,400 FD)
2) DFS Winger: Alex Ovechkin ($8,400 DK/ $8,200 FD)
Ovechkin is starting to heat up and while he has yet to record a goal in this postseason, his shot volume is starting to go up. He has taken 11 total shots over his last two games and has posted back-to-back double-digit DK point performances. On the year, Ovechkin has registered four points in five total games played against the Islanders and is averaging 15 DK points per game so he will find the score sheet soon.
Other Top Winger Plays:
- Mikko Rantanen ($7,600/ $7,800 FD)
- TJ Oshie ($5,200 / $6,800 FD)
- Claude Giroux ($6,900 / $7,400 FD)
3) DFS Defenseman: John Carlson ($6,300 DK / $6,800 FD)
The Caps got off to a hot start in their opening game against the Islanders and Carlson is one of the main reasons for that. He saw 23 minutes of ice-time and was able to register two assists in his first game back with the team since the break. The Caps will need performances like this from Carlson if they want to win and take this series from New York so look to him in all formats, especially with a reduced price point.
Other Defenseman Plays:
- Mark Giordano ($6,200 DK/ $5,400 FD)
- Shea Weber ($5,900 DK/ $5,800 FD)
- Cale Makar ($6,100 DK/ $5,700 FD)
4) DFS Goalie: Carter Hart ($8,200 DK/ $8,600 FD)
Hart has been so consistent all season long and he is even better when he is at home. Philly gets to be the home team for the second game of this series and overall, Hart is 21-3-2 with a 1.61 goals allowed average when the Flyers are the home team. Hart has been great against Montreal this season as he has a 2-0 record and has posted a 1.49 goals allowed average with a .942 save percentage. When looking at these numbers, it is easy to see that Hart is viable in all formats and should be one of the best overall options on the slate.
Other Goalie Options:
- Phillip Grubauer ($8,400 DK/ $8,800 FD)
DFS Value Plays: Center
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau ($4,600 DK/ $4,500 FD)
- Lars Eller ($3,400 DK/ $3,000 FD)
- Joe Pavelski ($4,200 DK/ $5,300 FD)
DFS Value Plays: Wing
- Josh Bailey ($3,900 DK/ $4,700 FD)
- Joel Farabee ($3,700 DK/ $3,400 FD)
- Anthony Beauvillier ($3,300 DK/ $5,200 FD)
DFS Value Plays: Defensemen
- Oliver Eckman-Larsson ($4,400 DK/ $4,800 FD)
- Devon Toews ($4,300 DK/ $4,000 FD)
- Noah Hanifan ($3,700/ $3,900 FD)
DFS Value Plays: Goalie
- Darcy Kuemper ($7,100 DK/ $7,300 FD)
- Carey Price ($7,200 DK/ $7,600 FD)
Top Team and Line DFS Stacks
Washington Capitals (L1, PP1, L2)
As you can tell from above, the Caps are a team that look to be in a good spot. They allowed four unanswered goals to the Islanders and can't afford going down 0-2 in this series so we should expect the Capitals to really put pressure on the offensive end. While they did struggle at even strength, the Caps succeeded when they had the odd0man advantage. They produced an 85.71 corsi for percentage and generated seven high-danger chances. If they can get to the odd-man advantage several times against New York, they should be able to capitalize and notch a few goals.
Colorado Avalanche (L1, L2)
The Avs really controlled the puck and pace of play against the Coyotes in the first game of the series. While they only generated eight high-danger opportunities throughout the game, they did a great job generating 33 scoring chances while limiting the Coyotes to only 17 scoring chances. The top line for the Avs had a strong showing as they had an 84.62 corsi and generated six scoring chances. Both of the Avs top lines should be considered in tournaments with their second line being lower owned so if you're needing a pivot or salary saving line, this would be the one to turn to.
Other Stacks that could be lower owned: NYI (1,2), PHI (L1, L2)
