NHL DFS Lineup Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, SuperDraft (3/8): Value Plays, Goalies, Stacks

3 years ago by Jorge Pucks

Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season is back and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft.

If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.

Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft for Monday, March 8th, 2020 at 8:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!

NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 3/8

- Vegas Golden Knights (-115) vs. Minnesota Wild (-105) - 5.5O
- Arizona Coyotes vs. Colorado Avalanche (-190) - 5.5U
- Ottawa Senators vs. Edmonton Oilers (-245) - 6.5U
- St. Louis Blues (-160) vs. San Jose Sharks (-145) - 6O
- Los Angeles Kings (-120) vs. Anaheim Ducks - 5.5U
- Montreal Canadiens (-155) vs. Vancouver Canucks - 6O

NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix

Team	Rank GA	Rank SA	Rank GF	Rank SF	Total
Vegas	2	27	27	15	14.25
Minnesota	10	18	20	8	17.5
Arizona	15	11	7	31	12
Colorado	7	31	19	3	19
Ottawa	31	5	8	4	16.5
Edmonton	21	4	21	9	9.25
St. Louis	21	16	22	15	14.75
San Jose	30	3	10	12	17.5
Los Angeles	11	11	15	22	13
Anaheim	15	22	2	28	18.5
Montreal	11	23	29	2	13.5
Vancouver	28	2	13	7	15.25

The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the last column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.

NHL DFS Power Play Matrix

Matchup	PP%	Opp PK%
Vegas	21	6
Minnesota	31	2
Arizona	17	5
Colorado	13	8
Ottawa	27	22
Edmonton	8	23
St. Louis	20	16
San Jose	23	24
Los Angeles	8	12
Anaheim	28	11
Montreal	15	14
Vancouver	18	21

The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank.

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NHL DFS Core Plays

The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).

When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give 2-3 plays (varies on slate size) at each position at different pricing ranges so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds or needing cornerstones for your tournament builds.

NHL DFS Center Picks

Connor McDavid, EDM ($9,200 DK / 8,700 FD) - McDavid finally broke out of his cold spell as he recorded a goal and two assists against the Flames on Saturday night. Now he gets a very favorable matchup against Ottawa who he has dominated this season by recording one goal and seven assists against in just four games.
J.T. Miller, VAN ($5,600 DK / $5,700 FD) - Miller is listed as a winger on FD but has the center designation on DK so he gives you some flexibility with your DK lines. Miller has five assists in five games against Montreal this season and is coming off of a three-point outing against Toronto as he looks to have taken over the centering responsibilities for the second line while Pettersson remains out.
Jesperi Kotkaniemi, MTL ($3,300 DK / $3,900 FD) - Kotkaniemi looks to be a great value play on this slate as he has five points in five games against Vancouver this season. In addition, he has some strong wingers that he will be skating with as it looks like Tyler Toffoli and Josh Anderson will be his wingers down on the third line and they have strong goal-scoring abilities.

Other centers to consider: Draisaitl, Couture, Kopitar, O'Reilly, Suzuki, Stephenson, Vilardi, Danault, White, Glass, Bjugstad

NHL DFS Forward Picks

Max Pacioretty, VGK ($8,300 DK / $8,000 FD) - Pacioretty continues to be one of the best overall DFS plays night in and night out. He has scored eight points over his last four games and gets a good matchup against the Wild as he has netted two goals and two assists in just two games against them last week.
Evander Kane, SJS ($6,100 DK / $6,700 FD) - The Sharks and Blues games have been fun to watch and one winger that has done his part in this matchup has been Evander Kane. Kane has three goals and two assists against St. Louis this season while also averaging four shots on goal per game against them.
Vladimir Tarasenko, STL ($4,200 DK / $6,900 FD) - The pricing on Tarasenko is still too soft over on DK and he is another lock and load type of play on this slate. In his season debut, Tarasenko saw a modest 16 minutes of ice time and took four shots on goal.

Other wings to consider: Rantanen, RNH, Toffoli, Perron, Gallagher, Boeser, Brown, Fiala, Anderson, Batherson, Tatar, Iafallo, Puljujarvi, Drouin, Pearson, Armia, Labanc, Greenway, Parise, Saad

NHL DFS Defenseman Picks

Brent Burns, SJS ($6,700 DK / $6,300 FD) - Burns has had some success against St. Louis this season and with his pricing in a decent range on both sites, he could be a great play in all formats. So far against the Blues, Burns has recorded one goal and four assists on 17 shots and is seeing over 28 minutes of ice time in this matchup. While the point scoring has been down for him, the shot volume will always be up there which makes him viable.
Samuel Girard, COL ($5,200 DK / $5,300 FD) - If Makar remains out, Girard should still be the Avs defenseman to consider. Girard has recorded a point in three of his last four games and has two assists against Arizona this year.
Erik Karlsson, SJS ($4,200 DK / $4,500 FD) - If spending up for Burns is too much, you can drop down to Karlsson who has picked up on the offensive end a bit. He has three points over his last four games and is averaging four peripheral stats over his last six games played.

Other defensemen to consider: Nurse, Petry, Chabot, Barrie, Theodore, Doughty, Toews, Martinez, Faulk, Brodin, Myers, Bouchard, Reilly

NHL DFS Goalie Picks

Mike Smith, EDM ($8,400 DK / $7,800 FD) - Mike Smith has been very impressive this year as he is now 7-2 with a 2.29 goals allowed average and a .925 save percentage and looks to be one of the steadier goaltenders in the North division. Smith is 1-0 against Ottawa this season and in his lone win, he stopped 27 of 28 shots. The Sens are on the end of a back-to-back so there could be some slight fatigue on their part that could benefit Edmonton as a whole.
Marc-Andre Fleury, VGK ($8,100 DK / $8,100 FD) - Fleury is now riding a five-game win streak as he pitched his fourth shutout of the season against the Sharks on Saturday night. The case can be made that Fleury has been the best goaltender in the league this season and with his pricing both in the low 8k range on this slate, it makes him a great option in all formats. Fleury is 2-0 against the Wild this season as he has conceded only five total games in those two games played on 67 shots faced.
Philipp Grubauer, COL ($8,300 DK / $8,300 FD) - The Avs are one of the largest favorites on the slate and if Grubauer is in the net for them, it is hard to not give him some consideration in all formats. Grubauer is 12-6 on the season with a 2.06 goals allowed average and a .921 save percentage and is 1-0 against Arizona. In that lone game, he stopped 23 of 25 shots and racked up a .920 save percentage.

Other goalies to consider: Quick, Price

Note: If you do roster a goalie listed above, it is sometimes best to make a hedge lineup in tournaments and take the opposing offense against them incase he gives up a few goals while that opposing team carries lower ownership.

Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks

EDM 1/ PP
- RNH/ McDavid/ Puljujarvi ( Nurse/ Barrie, d-men add on)
  - It is time to go back to the top Edmonton line as they finally got things corrected against Calgary over the weekend. This line has one of the highest expected goals for rates per 60 minutes of ice time as it sits at 3.25 expected goals for while also generating 37.46 scoring chances for per 60. While this is a very strong even-strength unit, McDavid and RNH also correlate on the power play which is where Ottawa tends to struggle so adding in Barrie makes for a strong three-man correlating stack since he will be skating with McDavid and RNH for most of the game.
SJS 1
- Kane/ Couture/ Labanc (Burns, d-men add on)
  - The Sharks top line continues to produce good numbers and has done well in 37 minutes of ice time against St. Louis this year. In the five games played against the Blues, this top Sharks line has a 2.89 expected goals for rate while generating 43.41 scoring chances for and 12.86 high danger chances for per 60 which are very good numbers and rates against a specific team. On the season, this line has a 2.91 expected goals for rate per 60 and is generating 30.93 scoring chances and 13.55 high danger chances for which are the highest rates on the entire Sharks team.
MON 3
- Toffoli/ Kotkaniemi/ Anderson
  - The Canadiens shuffled up their lines a bit and placed Toffoli and Anderson on the third line with Jesperi Kotkaniemi which makes for a very strong third line for Montreal. Toffoli and Anderson rank first and third on the team when it comes to most goals scored on the season and both are in the top seven of the Canadiens squad when it comes to most points on the year. The one downside to this line is that there is no correlation throughout the line when it comes to the power play units but the upside at even strength is just too good to pass up, especially in the given matchup against a Canucks squad that carries the highest expected goals allowed rate in the entire league (2.63 goals allowed per 60 minutes).