NFL Rookie Spotlight - Kyle Pitts

June 30, 2021

Phil Clark breaks down rookie TE Kyle Pitts' skill set and fantasy value for the 2021 season to see if he is a good option to draft.

The enthusiasm for NFL draft prospects surges to enormous levels on an annual basis, while reaching its pinnacle when the destinations for members of each rookie class have been determined. You can find the words “generational talent” and “freak athlete” contained in the evaluations of certain newcomers, and each of these terms is largely overused. But both designations apply to Atlanta’s Kyle Pitts, whose exceptional blend of size, speed, and athleticism is rarely found in a player who is classified as a tight end.

This has launched him onto the fantasy landscape with a wave of hype that transcends the usual expectations for a player who performs at his position. He is minimally a top-three selection in the majority of rookie drafts and is extremely capable of delivering an immediate impact. He also provides the potential for accumulating highly productive performances on a repeated basis during the foreseeable future.

Pitts will be infused into a Falcons' offense that will be guided by a first-year head coach and will undergo an on-field transformation following the departure of Julio Jones. These elements of transition will blend with other factors in determining Pitts’ usage and output, and his prospects of matching the escalating expectations will be examined in this profile.

Making NFL Draft History 

Pitts became the 10th tight end since 2010 to be selected in Round 1 of the NFL Draft, and the 25th to receive that designation since 2000.

With the 4th pick in the #NFLDraft, we have selected TE Kyle Pitts.

Welcome to Atlanta, @kylepitts__!

? - https://t.co/VylCMxJ5MQ pic.twitter.com/9vfttC18Dn

— Atlanta Falcons (@AtlantaFalcons) April 30, 2021

 
He was also the first tight end in league history to be drafted inside the top-five when Atlanta selected him fourth overall.

Pitts initially performed at quarterback during his high school career. But he made the transition to tight end after transferring before his junior year. He eventually became a four-star recruit before his enrollment at Florida (2018), then proceeded to collect 100 receptions, assemble 1,492 yards, and generate 18 touchdowns during his three seasons as a Gator.

? pic.twitter.com/psoY2OeOWu

— James Simpson (@JS_Football) April 9, 2021

Pitts also produced 97 receptions, 1,419 yards, and 17 touchdowns during his final two years at Gainesville. This includes the 12 touchdowns that he accumulated during 2020, which tied him for third among all players regardless of position.

His overall yardage total was the highest for a tight end in Florida’s history, while he also generated the second-highest number of career receptions. Pitts became the first tight end to be named as a finalist for the Biletnikoff Award, which is presented to the most outstanding receiver in college football regardless of position. He also received the John Mackey Award, which is presented to the nation’s premier tight end on an annual basis.

#Gators TE @kylepitts__ wins the John Mackey Award pic.twitter.com/vHVU3LvKJ2

— Zach Abolverdi (@ZachAbolverdi) January 8, 2021

Pitts was also a unanimous first-team All-American and finished among the top-10 in voting for the Heisman Trophy. His aforementioned combination of speed, size, and athleticism allowed him to demonstrate his prowess as both a highly proficient receiving weapon and an unquestioned matchup nightmare for overwhelmed opponents. This also elevated him among this year’s most intriguing prospects prior to his first-round selection by the Falcons.

An Exceptional Pro-Day

Pitts’ performance at Florida's Pro-Day supplied a favorable fusion of appealing measurables with impressive results in multiple events. The 6’6”, 245-pound Pitts provided reminders of the unique qualities that he possesses on a repeated basis, which included his completion of the 40-yard dash in a scorching 4.44.

.@MoveTheSticks' No. 2 overall prospect: Florida TE @kylepitts__

He just ran a 4.44u. ⏱?

?: @GatorsFB Pro Day LIVE on @nflnetwork pic.twitter.com/7CYGd8bKNx

— NFL (@NFL) March 31, 2021

The display of speed was significant, as it vaulted Pitts atop a list of times that were generated by recent prospects at his position.

Kyle Pitts 4.44 40-yard dash is faster than:

? Darren Waller - 4.46
? Jared Cook - 4.49
? Noah Fant - 4.50
? O.J. Howard - 4.51
? George Kittle - 4.52
? Mike Gesicki - 4.54 pic.twitter.com/GU3G8ldrXW

— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) March 31, 2021

This demonstration of his blazing speed combined with other Pro Day results to raise expectations surrounding his eventual output at the NFL level. Pitts also accumulated 22 reps in the bench press, completed a vertical jump of 33 ½ inches, and delivered a broad jump of 10 feet, 9 inches.

Official Pro Day numbers for Florida TE Kyle Pitts:

6055, 245 pounds

4.44 40-yard dash (99th percentile)

1.55 10-yard split (87th percentile)

33.5" vertical (57th percentile)

129" broad (97th percentile)

4.35 20-yard shuttle (52nd percentile)

7.12 3-cone (55th percentile) pic.twitter.com/T1eAJFpcL9

— Marcus Mosher (@Marcus_Mosher) April 3, 2021

— NFL (@NFL) April 1, 2021

Joining An Offense In Transition

The selection of Pitts represented just one of the Falcons’ high-profile changes that transpired during the offseason. This included a transformation within the front office and the coaching staff when owner Arthur Blank replaced former General Manager Thomas Dimitroff and Head Coach Dan Quinn with Terry Fontenot and Arthur Smith, respectively.

Smith now enters his first season as a head coach at the professional level, and his deployment of the players that comprise Atlanta’s offense will not replicate his usage of weaponry during his tenure as Tennessee’s offensive coordinator (2019-2020). However, it remains beneficial to review the Titans’ numbers while Smith was the architect of their attack.

Arthur Smith #Titans OC 2019-2020

- 51% pass, 49% run - only the Ravens ran more
- 33% play action (2nd in NFL)
- 29th in NFL with 45% 11 personnel (3 WRs)
- 3rd in NFL with 32% 12 personnel (2 TEs)

Target breakdowns:
- 13% to RBs (30th)
- 56% to WRs (16th)
- 26% to TEs (5th)

— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) January 16, 2021

Tennessee had ranked 25th in total offense (312.4 yards per game), 29th in passing (185.9 yards per game), and 27th in scoring (19.4 points per game) during 2018 before Smith was promoted to the offensive coordinator position. But the Titans rose to 10th in total offense during 2019 (362.8 yards per game) while averaging 50.4 additional yards per game. Their passing attack improved to 21st (223.9 yards per game) and the offense soared to 10th in scoring (25.1 points per game).

Tennessee also climbed to third in total offense in 2020 (396.4 yards per game) while completing the year as one of just four teams to average over 30 points per game (30.7). The Titans also finished 30th in pass play percentage (49.5%), with Derrick Henry operating as the foundation of their attack. However, only four teams distributed a higher percentage of targets to their tight ends (29.6%), while Tennessee finished 19th in targets to wide receivers (55.9%) and tied for 31st in targets that were allocated to running backs (12.4%).

Mike Davis is primed to operate as the Falcons’ lead back after generating career highs in rushing attempts (165/11 per game), rushing yards (642/42.8 per game), and rushing touchdowns (six) for Carolina in 2020. However, he does not have the capacity to match the effectiveness that has been delivered on a weekly basis by Henry. This ensures that Henry’s extensive usage with Tennessee will not function as a blueprint for Smith’s design of Atlanta's offense.

Smith also inherits an attack that has jettisoned Julio Jones, who stockpiled 1,322 targets (9.8 per game), 848 receptions (6.3 per game), and 12,896 yards (95.5 per game) during 135 regular-season games with the Falcons. Jones also accumulated 12,000 career yards faster than any receiver in NFL history (125 games). That included the 9,388 yards (1,565 per year) that he accumulated from 2014-2019 while averaging 162 targets and 104 receptions during those six seasons. Atlanta’s decision to trade Jones clearly has removed a potent weapon from the team’s offensive arsenal. However, it also eliminated a sizable obstacle that would otherwise have placed restraints on Pitts’ weekly target totals.

An Opportunity To Thrive 

Smith should concoct an attack that will emphasize the distribution of passes from Matt Ryan to Atlanta’s most proficient receiving weapons. This will undoubtedly include Pitts.

Atlanta ranked 18th in total offense during 2020 (368.4 points per game), while the Falcons’ passing attack finished fifth overall (272.7 yards per game) and 16th in scoring (24.8 points per game). Ryan led the NFL in passing attempts (626/39.1 per game) and completions (407/25.4 per game) during the 2020 regular season. He was also fourth in passing yardage (4,581/286.3 per game), which extended his streak to 10 consecutive seasons with 4,000+ yards.

That QB-TE connection ?@M_Ryan02 ➡ @kylepitts__ for the TD pic.twitter.com/bAEDhBPbEl

— Atlanta Falcons (@AtlantaFalcons) June 15, 2021

Atlanta was also eighth in pass play percentage (62.1%) and seventh in targets that were distributed to wide receivers (66.3%). The Falcons also ranked just 24th in team targets to their tight ends (17.2%). However, that percentage is destined to rise as Smith reshapes the team’s attack. Smith should capitalize on Pitts' ability to function effectively on routes that extend beyond the usual range for tight ends.

This will present a major challenge for defensive coordinators, who will be required to become highly creative in their allocation of resources. That also presents Smith with an opportunity to exploit matchup advantages that simply did not exist with his tight end options in Tennessee. Smith can now maximize the collection of attributes that Pitts possesses while blending deeper routes into the rookie’s expansive route tree. This will result in a contrast to Smith’s deployment of Jonnu Smith, who averaged 5.5 aDOT (average depth of target) and 6.9 yards per target during 2020.

The selection of Pitts automatically ended Hayden Hurst's one-year tenure as Atlanta's TE1. The Falcons had received the former first-round pick from Baltimore during March of 2020, in exchange for two draft selections (second-round/fifth-round).

But even though the addition of Pitts instantly fueled Hurst's descent on the Falcons' depth chart, Smith's extensive deployment of 12 personnel should remain intact. This should keep Hurst involved in the offense. But he will fail to approach the 14.4% target share that he attained last season.

Competition For Targets

Pitts will not contend with formidable competition for targets with the exception of Calvin Ridley, who commandeered a team-high 25.1% share during 2020. This continued his steady career progression, as Ridley finished at WR5 in scoring while leading the league in air yards (2,018) and yards before catch (1,099).

He also eclipsed 100 yards in a league-high eight games while finishing fourth among all wide receivers in receiving yardage (1,374) and seventh in first down receptions (65). Ridley also established new career-highs in yards per reception (15.3) and in aDOT (average depth of target - 14.3) while placing among the top-13 in both categories.

Ridley also expanded his per-game averages in 2018-2019 (6.4 targets/4.4 receptions/51.2 yards) to 9.5 targets, 6.0 receptions, and 91.6 receiving yards last season, as he finished fourth among all receivers in yardage (1,374), fifth in first down receptions (65), seventh in targets (143/9.6 per game), and 11th in receptions (90). Ridley also established new career-highs in yards per reception (15.3) and also in average depth of target (14.3).

Ridley also ascended beyond Jones to become Atlanta's top receiving weapon. Now, the Falcons' decision to extract Jones from their roster should fuel Ridley's rise into elite status. Any lingering doubt that Ridley can benefit statistically from Jones' departure can be eviscerated by his per-game averages during the seven games in which Jones was absent in 2020 (11.3 targets/7.1 receptions/109.3 yards).

However, Ridley will not be the only returning Falcon who will commandeer a larger target share following the exodus of Jones, as Russell Gage should emerge as the Falcons' WR2. Gage began 2020 with career totals of 616 snaps, 84 targets (2.7 per game), 55 receptions (1.8 per game), and 509 yards (16.4 per game). But he obliterated those numbers last season - 109 targets (6.8 per game), 72 receptions (4.5 per game), 786 yards (49.1 per game).

Gage operated from the slot on 74% of his routes while his career-best 68% snap share placed third behind Ridley and Hurst. He collected 10+ targets in four different matchups, although just two of those outings transpired without Jones in the lineup.

Gage averaged 6.4 targets, 4.3 receptions, and 48.6 yards per game during the seven matchups when Jones was sidelined, which did not produce a significant rise or drop when contrasted with his averages during the regular season. Gage did eclipse 100 yards during Atlanta’s season opener (114) and surpassed 80 yards in both Weeks 14/17. But he also failed to reach 50 yards in eight different matchups.

Olamide Zaccheaus will also begin his third season with the prospects of an expanded role. After minimal involvement during his 2019 rookie season (87 snaps/5.0 targets/115 yards), Zaccheaus performed on 308 snaps (27% share) and averaged 2.9 targets, 1.8 receptions, and 24.9 yards per game in 2020. He ran 58% of his routes outside, which were blended with his deployment from the slot (39%).

A toe injury abruptly concluded his season after Week 12, which limited him to just two matchups without Jones in the lineup (5.0 targets/2.5 receptions/27 yards per game). However, Zaccheaus received his highest snap shares in Weeks 3 (79%) and 5 (97%) when Jones was unavailable.

Hurst finished third on the team in targets (88/5.5 per game) and receptions (56/3.5 per game) and was second to Ridley in receiving touchdowns (six). All of those numbers established new career highs for Hurst while he also finished TE10 in PPR scoring. The addition of Pitts negatively impacted Hurst’s value. But his outlook became more favorable following the migration of Jones, as Smith’s penchant for 12 personnel should keep him sufficiently involved in the passing attack to retain relevance.

Davis finished third among all running backs in targets (70/5.0 per game) and receptions (59/3.9 per game) and was fourth in receiving yards (373/24.9 per game) from Weeks 2-16. He will commandeer a respectable share of opportunities as a pass-catcher from the backfield.

Pitts' Outlook

Kyle Pitts' 96.1 grade was first among all TEs AND WRs in any single season since 2014 pic.twitter.com/zqlNqOxh5x

— PFF College (@PFF_College) June 15, 2021

It is possible that Pitts will encounter a formidable learning curve while navigating the intricacies that exist when transitioning to the NFL. However, there is a far greater likelihood that Pitts will evade the usual hurdles that impede rookie tight ends from accumulating favorable numbers. He should navigate all obstacles, as the convergence of exceptional talent and enormous opportunity propel him to a highly productive season.

Pitts’ exclusive set of attributes have provided Smith with enormous incentive to utilize him as an integral component in Atlanta’s restructured attack. The departure of Jones has also accelerated his timeline for that process to develop.

Kyle Pitts is going to finish the season with like 45 touchdowns pic.twitter.com/461acPW72i

— Cover 3 Podcast (@Cover3Podcast) October 3, 2020

Pitts will also operate with a level of usage that will only be exceeded by Ridley within Atlanta’s receiving arsenal. He can consistently unleash a rare level of athleticism on overmatched opponents. He also possesses agility that defies his size and blends it with route running acumen that allows him to achieve separation - even when executing patterns that would normally be reserved for wide receivers.

He also delivers the propensity to prevail when he encounters congested-catch situations. This will allow Smith to maximize Pitts' versatility since he is capable of functioning as an effective weapon regardless of where he is deployed on the field.

Combining these factors with the shortage of enticing options at the tight end position should compel fantasy managers to confidently select Pitts among the top three during any remaining rookie drafts. He can also be targeted during Round 4 in redraft and best-ball leagues while he is also worthy of selection in Round 3 of TE Premium leagues.

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