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Just when you thought we were done, it's Wild Card Weekend and we aren't going anywhere! Pick 'Em pools continue and so does the weekly column.
Each week of the NFL season, I’ll share my picks for each game, and rank the selections for those who play in a format that requires it. The games will be grouped into semi-confident picks and toss-ups. The number next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least confident pick. The winner picks are italicized.
Some weeks you may see a subcategory of “Wait and See” because some platforms require all games to be selected before the kickoff of the first game. Injury question marks for Sunday games may still be hanging. If that’s the case, I’ll leave those games off to the side and suggest where they should be placed if a player suits up or not.
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Semi-Confident Picks For Wild Card Weekend Pick 'Em Pools
6 - Buffalo vs. Pittsburgh
Easily the biggest spread of Wild Card weekend, the second-seed Buffalo Bills host the seventh-seed Pittsburgh Steelers. Oddsmakers have set the over/under at 35.5 points. The Bills are 10-point favorites at the time of this writing. That gives Pittsburgh an implied point total of just 12.75 points.
The story of the Steelers is to win by any means possible. They were outscored by 20 points this season but managed to sneak into the postseason by winning three straight under the direction of third-string quarterback Mason Rudolph. Sure, it came against two non-playoff teams, and the Ravens sitting their stars. But a win is a win.
The Bills are scorching hot. They've moved from a team "in the hunt" during the tail end of the season to the second seed in the AFC. Five straight wins, including victories over teams like Kansas City, Dallas, and Miami, put Josh Allen and Co. back in the spot that pundits predicted they'd be in all season long.
5 - Dallas vs. Green Bay
Mike McCarthy's old team travels to meet his team, in the building where he and Aaron Rodgers crushed the dreams of the Cowboys.
It's not the last time that the Cowboys lost at home but it feels like it. The Boys are riding a 16-game winning streak at Jerry World. They were the only undefeated home team this season.
The Packers found their next franchise quarterback. Jordan Love and his quartet of talented, young wideouts (plus two promising rookie tight ends) could be dangerous down the line. Right now, they don't have quite enough firepower to keep up with Dak Prescott and the league-leading 29.9 points per game that the Cowboys are posting.
NFL Pick 'Em Toss-Ups Of Wild Card Weekend
4 - Kansas City vs. Miami
Injuries may be robbing us of one of the best Wild Card matchups in recent history. The storylines are elite: Tyreek Hill returns to Kansas City to exact his revenge on his former squad, Patrick Mahomes seeks a second-consecutive Super Bowl ring, elite defense versus explosive offense.
Unfortunately for Miami, Hill may be one of the few stars suiting up for the Dolphins. Four pass rushers (Jaelan Phillips, Bradley Chubb, Andrew Van Ginkel, and Cameron Goode) are out for the season. The last two on that list were injured during the battle for the AFC East with Buffalo on Sunday. Melvin Ingram and Emmanuel Ogbah are the only two healthy edge rushers on the roster. They'll surely bring in others before Saturday.
Middle linebacker Jerome Baker, who just returned from a knee ailment, suffered a wrist injury. He's also out for the season. That leaves Duke Riley to call the signals for the defense, a role he's been doing at the tail end of this season, although not as effectively as Baker. Starting (and former All-Pro) cornerback Xavien Howard is also expected to miss his second-straight game with a foot problem. That's just the defense.
Coach Mike McDaniel noted on Monday that he is optimistic that running back Raheem Mostert (knee) and Jaylen Waddle (ankle) will be able to suit up. They missed the last two games, both losses. At least the offensive line has four of five Week 1 starters, albeit shuffled a bit.
No team is fully healthy at this point in the season. The Chiefs are dealing with some injuries at offensive tackle, but they also were allowed to rest their stars and took advantage of it. Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and L'Jarius Sneed were among the healthy scratches last Sunday.
There's also the massive home-field advantage the Chiefs bring into this matchup. Mahomes has lost just one home playoff game in his last nine starts. The forecast is calling for temperatures near zero degrees and Arrowhead will be rocking.
3 - Cleveland at Houston
Another revenge narrative is in the works here, but we'll leave the Deshaun Watson drama for another day. Joe Flacco is the real story of this matchup and the season as a whole.
The soon-to-be 39-year-old is 4-1 as a starter for Cleveland, including four straight dubs, while throwing for over 300 yards in all of the victories. One of those performances came against Houston (Week 16). Saying that Flacco destroyed that secondary is putting it lightly. 368 yards (265 of which went to Amari Cooper) and three touchdowns in less than a full game's worth of snaps is slight work for this version of Flacco. C.J. Stroud did not play in that game. Neither did linebacker Blake Cashman or edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. The secondary, however, was healthy.
If Flacco isn't the biggest storyline of the season, then it's the Houston Texans. Competing for the first-overall pick just a year ago, first-year head coach DeMeco Ryans led the Texans to an AFC South crown. His quarterback is a near-lock for Offensive Rookie of the Year.
But here's the difference between these two squads. Flacco has been here before, leading the Ravens to a Super Bowl XLVII victory. The Texans have a rookie quarterback and head coach. Take the experienced guy with the elite defense in the postseason.
2 - Tampa Bay vs. Philadelphia
There's always talk about which teams are hot heading into the postseason. The Rams, Bills, and Browns are popular picks because of their play to end the regular season. The Eagles are only in the postseason because of their sizzling start to the season. They were blown out by San Francisco and Dallas (the NFC's elite tier) and dropped games to three non-playoff teams (Seattle, Arizona, and the New York Giants). That took Philly from hosting at least one playoff game to spending the opening weekend on the road.
Their run defense appeared to rebound against Saquon Barkley in Week 18 after several disasters opposite James Conner, Kenneth Walker, and Barkley the first time around. That's encouraging because it's been proven in every game this season that they aren't slowing down opposing passing games. The secondary allowed the second-most passing yards per game in the regular season.
Granted, Tampa Bay is only four yards behind in that category. DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown are both health question marks for Monday night. If they both have to sit or not at 100 percent, the Tampa Bay secondary won't have problems shadowing Julio Jones, Olamide Zaccheaus, and Quez Watkins. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are ready to roll, which is a tough task for a banged-up and sloppy secondary.
The Eagles are too out of sorts to trust in the playoffs and Jalen Hurts has a finger issue on this throwing hand. Baker Mayfield (outside of Week 18 when he leaned on his defense) has been firing on all cylinders. A lot has changed since Week 3 when these two teams met last.
1 - Detroit vs. Los Angeles
Mike McCarthy, Deshaun Watson, Tyreek Hill. Those are amateur revenge game narratives compared to this matchup. Jared Goff and Matthew Stafford, who were traded for each other in 2021, meet in the postseason. Sunday night will be the first time in history that both starting quarterbacks will be facing their former team in the playoffs.
The Rams have been one of the hottest teams in the NFL, going 7-1 over their last eight games. The trio of Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, and Demarcus Robinson are getting open with ease against opposing defenses. Detroit has been torched by top wideouts in recent weeks (560 yards combined for Justin Jefferson and CeeDee Lamb in three weeks).
As Stafford racks up big numbers in the box score, his counterpart does so as well. The Lions may be missing tight end Sam LaPorta (knee), but Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, and Josh Reynoldsprovide more than enough firepower for Goff. The Rams are one of the worst defenses against explosive plays this season. Not to mention, both of these offenses have elite options in the backfield (David Montgomery/Jahmyr Gibbs and Kyren Williams).
All eyes will remain on the quarterbacks as they duel in the highest over/under line (51.5 at the time of this writing) on Wild Card weekend. Goff may finally get his revenge against the team that essentially told him that he wasn't good enough to win a Super Bowl.
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