Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

Lost password? [X]

Receive free daily analysis:

NFL    NBA    MLB

Already have an account? Log in here.

[X]

Forgot Password


[X]

NFL DFS Week 10 - DraftKings Power Pivots


Thanks for joining me here at RotoBaller! Those of you that read last week's Power Pivots hopefully fared well, as our highlighted players had huge games in Week 9! I'm back on the grind for you, let's try to keep the positive momentum going as we head into Week 10.

There were several games last week that set up perfectly for DFS production. With the exception of the Saints/Bengals matchup, that doesn't appear to be the case in Week 10. We are going to discuss what players are projected to popular at each position and dig into some alternative options. Let's get to it!

All ownership projections in this article are courtesy of the awesome folks at UFCollective. They provide the most accurate ownership projections that I have found in the DFS industry and now offer their content directly to the public. It is a premium product that is worth every penny and available here. They offer NFL, NBA, and MLB content for both DraftKings and FanDuel. You can follow them on Twitter @UFCollective.

Editor's Note: Get any full-season NFL Premium Pass for 50% off. Our exclusive In-Season Lineup Tools, Lineup Optimizer and over 150 days of Premium DFS Research. Sign Up Now!

 

Week 10 NFL DFS Power Pivots for DraftKings GPPs

As I mention every week, ownership considerations should come at the end of your weekly research process. Ownership projections change throughout the week and I highly recommend that you refer back to this column before finalizing your lineups. I will update ownership projections and add injury notes with additional strategy thoughts on Saturdays.

QB CHALK: Ryan Fitzpatrick ($5,900)

Projected DraftKings Ownership: 13% *UPDATED: 11%

POWER PIVOT: Baker Mayfield ($5,400)

Projected DraftKings Ownership: 4% *UPDATED: 3%

Yeah...sure...NOW everybody wants to hop on the Fitz Magic bandwagon. Fitz was our highlighted QB pivot here last week and I was fortunate enough to be all-in on him. He fought through a slow start to post a big game against Carolina. Fitzpatrick is currently projected to be the highest-owned QB in Week 10 in a matchup against the Washington Redskins. He remains a very solid play that I will definitely have exposure to again.

Another QB that catches my eye is a little lower down the salary scale. Baker Mayfield is priced at just $5,400 this week and draws an excellent matchup against the Atlanta Falcons. The Cleveland QB didn't miss a beat with the absence of fired coaches Hue Jackson and Todd Haley last week. Mayfield looked good with Freddie Kitchens running the show, throwing for 2 TDs and nearly 300 yards against Kansas City in Week 9. He hasn't posted any slate-breaking games yet, but is quietly averaging a solid 18.24 DK points per game over his last five outings.

Mayfield draws an Atlanta defense that has struggled to contain opposing QB's this season. The Falcons injuries on defense have been well publicized this year and despite looking better against Washington last week, they are still a unit that I'm looking to target. The Falcons have allowed 300-plus passing yards in six of their last seven games and have hemorrhaged fantasy points to signal callers...the Bucs and Saints are the only teams that have allowed more points to QB's. The Falcons have also been susceptible to QB's that can run, which isn't a huge component of Mayfield's game, but he definitely has the ability to pick up yards on the ground.

There are lots of things to like about this matchup. The Falcons are listed as 4.5 point favorites with an Over/Under that is currently at 50.5, making it one of the highest projected point totals of the week. We can expect a positive game script for Mayfield in this one, as the Browns offense should be forced to keep up with Atlanta's high-octane attack. He offers a not-too-shabby $500 savings when compared to Fitzpatrick, which can be spent elsewhere in GPP lineups.

SATURDAY UPDATE: Fitz has been surpassed in ownership projections by both Patrick Mahomes ($7,200) & Philip Rivers ($6,000). Mahomes is the "safest" QB option on this slate, but you must be willing to pay way up for that safety. I'm concerned about Rivers' volume in what could very well be a blowout against Oakland. Aaron Rodgers ($6,400) headlines a group of very solid QBs in the $6-$6.5k range. This is a week where no QB stands out as a must-play for me, so it will depend on personal preference and lineup construction. Mayfield is a great discount option for those looking to use salary in other spots.

 

RB CHALK: Kareem Hunt ($8,500)

Projected DraftKings Ownership: 35% *UPDATED: 27%

POWER PIVOT: Alvin Kamara ($8,700)

Projected DraftKings Ownership: 20% *UPDATED: 16%

For the first time in a long time, Todd Gurley isn't sitting atop early ownership projections. Instead, last week's highlighted RB pivot Kareem Hunt is the back that DFS players seem to be flocking to this week. Hunt has been on fire recently and is an elite play again in Week 10.

Similar to last week's suggestion to pivot from Gurley to Hunt, I'm once again not trying to reinvent the wheel at the RB spot in Week 10. Saints RB Alvin Kamara will be a popular option, but does offer noticeably less ownership than Hunt.

Kamara flashed his tournament-winning upside against the Rams last week when he exploded for 3 TDs and 116 total yards. There was huge concern weeks ago in the fantasy community about the negative impact that Mark Ingram's return would have on Kamara, especially after Kamara threw up a dud while Ingram shined in his first game back from suspension in Week 5. Those concerns have faded as Kamara has averaged 16 carries and 25 DK points over his last three games. The former Tennessee Vol has also out-snapped Ingram in the Saints last three and, somewhat surprisingly, has outpaced Ingram 12 to 4 in red zone carries in the same span.

Kamara draws a sneaky-good matchup against a Cincy defense that is 30th in the NFL in yards allowed per carry and has allowed five rushing TD's over their last six games. Vegas has this one pegged as a shootout with a slate-high Over/Under of 54 points. Kamara should remain heavily involved for a Saints offense that has a very tight group of players that garner a high majority of the usage. New Orleans has been very content to lean on the run game this season and I look for that to continue against a sub-par Cincy run defense.

SATURDAY UPDATE: Kareem Hunt has dropped a bit in projected ownership. Melvin Gordon ($9,000) and Todd Gurley ($9,400) now sit atop ownership projections. Our pivot play Alvin Kamara is down to around 16% projected ownership and I still believe he's a terrific option vs Cincy. There are a couple of value options that I really like in Week 10. While Duke Johnson Jr ($4,700) is garnering lots of attention, I much prefer Titans RB Dion Lewis ($4,600) who has solidified his position as Tennessee's lead back in their last two games. Lewis gets a great matchup against a New England team with lead-footed linebackers. An injury to keep an eye on...Seahawks RB Chris Carson is a highly questionable, game-time decision. If he can't go, Mike Davis ($4,300) would take the reigns in Seattle's backfield and become a very viable GPP option.

 

WR CHALK: Michael Thomas ($8,100)

Projected DraftKings Ownership: 20% *UPDATED: 17%

POWER PIVOT: Mike Evans ($7,000)

Projected DraftKings Ownership: 10% *UPDATED: 13%

Folks will be flocking to the receivers in this NO/Cincy matchup. In fact, I wouldn't be at all surprised if Cincy WR Tyler Boyd overcomes Michael Thomas as the most popular pass catcher on the slate. It's a slam dunk spot for Boyd, who will be expected to carry the load for a Bengals offense that will be without A.J. Green for at least a few weeks.

I got a ton of things right in Week 9, but most of my misses came at the WR position. Tampa Bay's Mike Evans found his way into lots of my lineups, along with Fitz, O.J. Howard, and D.J. Moore (Really Carolina? Curtis Samuel?). It's an understatement to say that Evans disappointed, as he ended the game with one catch for 16 yards on 10 targets. Call me crazy, but I'm really interested in going right back to the well with Evans this week.

Despite his horrible game against Carolina, I'm comforted by the fact that Evans appears to be the one Buc that is locked into usage each week. He saw 10 targets against the Panthers and is averaging 9.8 targets per game when Ryan Fitzpatrick starts. His $7,000 price tag is his lowest since Week 1 and his ownership will be suppressed due to the dud last week.

The matchup for Evans against Washington is middle-of-the-road. The Redskins have been merely average against the pass this season and are 19th in Pass Def DVOA. Evans will see part-time coverage from Josh Norman, but that hasn't been a matchup to fear this season. We've seen the Redskins struggle to contain proficient offenses, allowing 43 points to New Orleans in Week 5 and 38 to Atlanta last week. Say what you will about the Bucs, but they have been able to score this season and have scored more than 26 points in seven of eight games.

We are taking on some risks with Evans. As we saw last week, he tends to completely disappear in a few games each year. I'm willing to gamble on a big bounce-back game from Evans and I think he has as much upside as any WR on the slate.

SATURDAY UPDATE: Really surprised that Cincy WR Tyler Boyd ($7,500) isn't at the top of ownership projections. He's in line for all the work he can handle against a Saints defense that has struggled horribly against slot receivers. Those is need of major salary savings can also give the other Bengal WRs a look. John Ross ($3,900) and Alex Erickson ($3,400) have low floors, but will see increased usage for the injury-depleted Cincy receiving corps. Lots to like in the $6k range at WR this week, both the Pats and Rams have some interesting WRs priced in this range. Green Bay's Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($5,000) will be very popular, but offers tremendous value in his secure role in the GB offense. I'm penciling him in across the board.

 

TE CHALK: Travis Kelce ($7,000)

Projected DraftKings Ownership: 17% *UPDATED: 20%

POWER PIVOT: Jimmy Graham ($4,600)

Projected DraftKings Ownership: 9% *UPDATED: 10%

KC's Travis Kelce leads the way at TE this week. Kelce carries the position's highest salary and highest projected ownership. I almost never pay up at the TE spot, but I have to admit, it's very tempting to lock-in Kelce and the safety he brings in an ugly week at the position.

For the first time in several weeks, no one is really "popping" for me at TE. My stumping for David Njoku in this article has turned into a running joke at this point. I've also developed a DFS crush on O.J. Howard over the last few weeks.

Both of those guys are legit options, but in the interest of keeping things fresh, I'm going to give Green Bay TE Jimmy Graham some run this week. The Packers big off-season acquisition has settled in nicely with Aaron Rodgers. Graham had an ugly debut in the season opener and threw up a dud against the Rams a couple of weeks ago, but has otherwise been a rock-solid option at TE end on a weekly basis.

Graham found the end zone last week for just his second TD of the season and is due for some more positive regression in that department. He is averaging 7.25 targets per game over his last four. He is set to square off against a Dolphins defense that has allowed five TD's to tight ends in their last four games. Graham may not have the freakish upside that he used to possess, but he is a very solid option in what's a thin week at the TE position.

SATURDAY UPDATE: Big Jim trails only Kelce in projected ownership. Both are solid options at what's an ugly position this week. I'm kind of shocked that Tampa's O.J. Howard ($5,300) is currently projected to only garner a miniscule 2% ownership share. If Howard's projection stays that low, I will definitely go overweight on him in an attempt to gain leverage on the field. I will continue to keep an eye on David Njoku ($4,200) who has been dinged up, but gets a juicy matchup against the Falcons.

,
D/ST CHALK: New York Jets ($3,400)

Projected DraftKings Ownership: 19% *UPDATED: 20%

POWER PIVOT: LA Chargers ($3,500)

Projected DraftKings Ownership: 11% *UPDATED: 11%

The New York Jets lead ownership projections at DEF/ST. The Jets are taking on the lowly Buffalo Bills, who will trot out veteran journeyman Derek Anderson. I'm pretty disappointed that I don't get to employ my patented Nathan Peterman flow chart that goes like this..."Is Nathan Peterman starting? If 'Yes' auto-play opposing defense in 100% of lineups."

Since there's no Peterman this week, I'm sticking with my "common sense" approach to DEF/ST that has served me well over the last several weeks. Besides the Bills, the most lifeless offense that I have seen recently belongs to the Oakland Raiders. Void of talent and apparently pride, Oakland appears to have quit on this season and are entering full-on tank mode.

The Raiders are facing a quickly improving LA Chargers defense that is $100 more expensive than the Jets, but brings a whole lot more talent to the table. The Chargers are finally playing like the defense we all thought they would be this year. They have held opponents under 20 points in five consecutive games and have scored over 10 DraftKings points in three of their last four. I've made a pledge to myself to stop "overthinking" things at the DEF/ST spot and LA makes the most sense to me in a smash matchup against the Raiders.

SATURDAY UPDATE: Not much movement ownership-wise here. I'm keeping a close eye on the Bills QB news, as Derek Anderson as been ruled out. The Jets are a terrific play either way, but if Peterman is named the starter, I'm all-in. I still really like the Chargers against the tanking Raiders. The Chiefs are a sneaky-good defensive unit at home and have rookie QB Josh Rosen coming to Arrowhead. They are a solid leverage play in large-field situations.

More Weekly DFS Analysis




More Recent Articles

 

Week 8 Defense (DEF) Streamers and Starts - 2019 Fantasy Tiers, Rankings

This was a REALLY difficult week to rank, because there are so many usable DSTs this week. There are usable options all the way down to Tier 4 this week, and you're going to have something available to you on the waiver wire in even the deepest of leagues. Below are RotoBaller's Week 8 defense... Read More


Week 7 Start/Sit: Monday Night Football Matchups Analysis

Even if this doesn’t turn out to be great MNF game, at least it's a divisional game with some importance. This is what Jets fans need to tell themselves heading into their second Monday Night Football game of the season. With the New England Patriots coming to town off their annual semi-bye in which they... Read More


Week 8 Waiver Wire Pickups & Adds

It's Chase Edmonds' world, we're just living in it. Wait, what? Hopefully you added him, as suggested in this column the past two weeks, because even if David Johnson is deemed healthy enough to actually play, it's likely Edmonds continues to see action. In QB news, by the halfway point of Thursday night, we already had... Read More


Running Back Waiver Wire Pickups - Week 8

The regular season continues to advance at a relentless pace as we have now entered planning for Week 8. Some of you are ecstatic with the level of production that has been delivered by your running backs. But many of you have been contending with unwanted developments at this position including injuries, inconsistent usage, and... Read More


Wide Receiver Waiver Wire Pickups - Week 8

We're heading into Week 8 of the NFL season. By now, some of y'all are getting a good sense of where you're at fantasy-wise, if you're heading to the postseason or playing for fun or, in a dynasty league, building for the future. This look at wide receivers is for all of you. As we... Read More


Week 8 Tight End Waiver Wire Picks and Streamers

A two-team bye week is a lot easier for fantasy football players to navigate than a four-team bye week. Fantasy owners are going to have to live without Dallas’ Jason Witten and Baltimore’s Mark Andrews in Week 8. If you have one of the those players as your starting tight end, the problem is that... Read More


Quarterback Waiver Wire Pickups and Streamers - Week 8

Tragedy struck a few top quarterbacks this week, as both Patrick Mahomes and Matt Ryan left games with injuries. We already know Mahomes will miss 3-6 weeks, while more will be revealed about Ryan's status later today. Either way, owners of these quarterbacks will need a backup plan in place, and this week the waiver... Read More


Waiver Wire Express - Week 8 Lightning Round

The better part of seven weeks is in the fantasy football books, making those early trends very real -- for better or worse. One must still consider the matchups played thus far and those to come, but usage and volume are becoming reliable. Week 8 sees the Ravens and Cowboys hit their bye week. To... Read More


Fantasy Football News and Injuries - Running Updates

Below is a quick-hit list of running notes on relevant injuries and player news, including pre-game reports and live in-game updates. Stay tuned for updates all throughout the week and on Sunday morning game day:   Week 7 Will Fuller (hamstring) is expected to miss several weeks. Matt Ryan is out for the game with an... Read More


Week 7 Fantasy Football Staff Rankings

Below you will find all of RotoBaller's fantasy football weekly rankings, tiers, player news and stats for the 2019 NFL season. Our Ranking Wizard displays our staff's rankings for various league formats, all in one easy place. Here's what you'll find: Weekly PPR Rankings Weekly Half-PPR Rankings Weekly Standard Rankings Dynasty League Rankings     Fantasy... Read More


NFL Matchup Ratings Tool - Weekly Player Projections

  If you see the red "Upgrade" button below, then you are not a Premium subscriber, or have not yet logged in. Learn more about our NFL Matchup Ratings and projections system.   NFL Matchup Ratings - Weekly Lineup Projections FLEX RB WR TE QB DEF K ** click column headers to sort table Player... Read More


Week 7 Chat - Live Fantasy Football Game Day Q&A

It's Sunday Morning Week 7... Do You Know Who to Start? Each Sunday morning of the NFL season, RotoBaller's experts will be moderating the industry's leading live chat room and answering a bunch of your fantasy football questions, from around 10:30 AM to 1:00 PM ET. Come join in on the fun, and get your... Read More


Updated Week 7 PPR Rankings (Top 300)

Welcome to Week 7 RotoBallers. Below are our updated consensus Week 7 PPR rankings for fantasy football, including some running notes on relevant injuries, player news and rankings updates: Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Geronimo Allison are both active. Todd Gurley is officially active, Malcolm Brown is out. Christian Kirk is not expected to play this week. David... Read More


Fantasy Football Starts and Sits: Matchups Analysis for Week 7

Welcome to our Week 7 matchup analysis and start/sit column for fantasy football. We'll be covering every single contest from the Sunday slate in one convenient location, helping you make the best decisions for your fantasy lineups. Be sure to check back regularly because this article will be updated as news comes in regarding injuries and other... Read More


Wide Receiver Matchups To Target in Week 7

In Week 6, Julio Jones didn't score, but he came through with a decent fantasy day, going over 100-yards receiving. Brandin Cooks brutal Week 6 showing was a little bit of a surprise given his 2018 track record against the 49ers, but the Rams offensive line was overwhelmed which led to a rough day for... Read More