RADIO
Joe Nicely digs into his daily fantasy Power Pivot contrarian selections for Week 10 of the 2018 NFL season, featuring low-ownership-percentage players who can help your NFL DFS lineups for DraftKings GPP tournaments.
Thanks for joining me here at RotoBaller! Those of you that read last week's Power Pivots hopefully fared well, as our highlighted players had huge games in Week 9! I'm back on the grind for you, let's try to keep the positive momentum going as we head into Week 10.
There were several games last week that set up perfectly for DFS production. With the exception of the Saints/Bengals matchup, that doesn't appear to be the case in Week 10. We are going to discuss what players are projected to popular at each position and dig into some alternative options. Let's get to it!
All ownership projections in this article are courtesy of the awesome folks at UFCollective. They provide the most accurate ownership projections that I have found in the DFS industry and now offer their content directly to the public. It is a premium product that is worth every penny and available here. They offer NFL, NBA, and MLB content for both DraftKings and FanDuel. You can follow them on Twitter @UFCollective.
Week 10 NFL DFS Power Pivots for DraftKings GPPs
As I mention every week, ownership considerations should come at the end of your weekly research process. Ownership projections change throughout the week and I highly recommend that you refer back to this column before finalizing your lineups. I will update ownership projections and add injury notes with additional strategy thoughts on Saturdays.
QB CHALK: Ryan Fitzpatrick ($5,900)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 13% *UPDATED: 11%
POWER PIVOT: Baker Mayfield ($5,400)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 4% *UPDATED: 3%
Yeah...sure...NOW everybody wants to hop on the Fitz Magic bandwagon. Fitz was our highlighted QB pivot here last week and I was fortunate enough to be all-in on him. He fought through a slow start to post a big game against Carolina. Fitzpatrick is currently projected to be the highest-owned QB in Week 10 in a matchup against the Washington Redskins. He remains a very solid play that I will definitely have exposure to again.
Another QB that catches my eye is a little lower down the salary scale. Baker Mayfield is priced at just $5,400 this week and draws an excellent matchup against the Atlanta Falcons. The Cleveland QB didn't miss a beat with the absence of fired coaches Hue Jackson and Todd Haley last week. Mayfield looked good with Freddie Kitchens running the show, throwing for 2 TDs and nearly 300 yards against Kansas City in Week 9. He hasn't posted any slate-breaking games yet, but is quietly averaging a solid 18.24 DK points per game over his last five outings.
Mayfield draws an Atlanta defense that has struggled to contain opposing QB's this season. The Falcons injuries on defense have been well publicized this year and despite looking better against Washington last week, they are still a unit that I'm looking to target. The Falcons have allowed 300-plus passing yards in six of their last seven games and have hemorrhaged fantasy points to signal callers...the Bucs and Saints are the only teams that have allowed more points to QB's. The Falcons have also been susceptible to QB's that can run, which isn't a huge component of Mayfield's game, but he definitely has the ability to pick up yards on the ground.
There are lots of things to like about this matchup. The Falcons are listed as 4.5 point favorites with an Over/Under that is currently at 50.5, making it one of the highest projected point totals of the week. We can expect a positive game script for Mayfield in this one, as the Browns offense should be forced to keep up with Atlanta's high-octane attack. He offers a not-too-shabby $500 savings when compared to Fitzpatrick, which can be spent elsewhere in GPP lineups.
SATURDAY UPDATE: Fitz has been surpassed in ownership projections by both Patrick Mahomes ($7,200) & Philip Rivers ($6,000). Mahomes is the "safest" QB option on this slate, but you must be willing to pay way up for that safety. I'm concerned about Rivers' volume in what could very well be a blowout against Oakland. Aaron Rodgers ($6,400) headlines a group of very solid QBs in the $6-$6.5k range. This is a week where no QB stands out as a must-play for me, so it will depend on personal preference and lineup construction. Mayfield is a great discount option for those looking to use salary in other spots.
RB CHALK: Kareem Hunt ($8,500)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 35% *UPDATED: 27%
POWER PIVOT: Alvin Kamara ($8,700)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 20% *UPDATED: 16%
For the first time in a long time, Todd Gurley isn't sitting atop early ownership projections. Instead, last week's highlighted RB pivot Kareem Hunt is the back that DFS players seem to be flocking to this week. Hunt has been on fire recently and is an elite play again in Week 10.
Similar to last week's suggestion to pivot from Gurley to Hunt, I'm once again not trying to reinvent the wheel at the RB spot in Week 10. Saints RB Alvin Kamara will be a popular option, but does offer noticeably less ownership than Hunt.
Kamara flashed his tournament-winning upside against the Rams last week when he exploded for 3 TDs and 116 total yards. There was huge concern weeks ago in the fantasy community about the negative impact that Mark Ingram's return would have on Kamara, especially after Kamara threw up a dud while Ingram shined in his first game back from suspension in Week 5. Those concerns have faded as Kamara has averaged 16 carries and 25 DK points over his last three games. The former Tennessee Vol has also out-snapped Ingram in the Saints last three and, somewhat surprisingly, has outpaced Ingram 12 to 4 in red zone carries in the same span.
Kamara draws a sneaky-good matchup against a Cincy defense that is 30th in the NFL in yards allowed per carry and has allowed five rushing TD's over their last six games. Vegas has this one pegged as a shootout with a slate-high Over/Under of 54 points. Kamara should remain heavily involved for a Saints offense that has a very tight group of players that garner a high majority of the usage. New Orleans has been very content to lean on the run game this season and I look for that to continue against a sub-par Cincy run defense.
SATURDAY UPDATE: Kareem Hunt has dropped a bit in projected ownership. Melvin Gordon ($9,000) and Todd Gurley ($9,400) now sit atop ownership projections. Our pivot play Alvin Kamara is down to around 16% projected ownership and I still believe he's a terrific option vs Cincy. There are a couple of value options that I really like in Week 10. While Duke Johnson Jr ($4,700) is garnering lots of attention, I much prefer Titans RB Dion Lewis ($4,600) who has solidified his position as Tennessee's lead back in their last two games. Lewis gets a great matchup against a New England team with lead-footed linebackers. An injury to keep an eye on...Seahawks RB Chris Carson is a highly questionable, game-time decision. If he can't go, Mike Davis ($4,300) would take the reigns in Seattle's backfield and become a very viable GPP option.
WR CHALK: Michael Thomas ($8,100)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 20% *UPDATED: 17%
POWER PIVOT: Mike Evans ($7,000)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 10% *UPDATED: 13%
Folks will be flocking to the receivers in this NO/Cincy matchup. In fact, I wouldn't be at all surprised if Cincy WR Tyler Boyd overcomes Michael Thomas as the most popular pass catcher on the slate. It's a slam dunk spot for Boyd, who will be expected to carry the load for a Bengals offense that will be without A.J. Green for at least a few weeks.
I got a ton of things right in Week 9, but most of my misses came at the WR position. Tampa Bay's Mike Evans found his way into lots of my lineups, along with Fitz, O.J. Howard, and D.J. Moore (Really Carolina? Curtis Samuel?). It's an understatement to say that Evans disappointed, as he ended the game with one catch for 16 yards on 10 targets. Call me crazy, but I'm really interested in going right back to the well with Evans this week.
Despite his horrible game against Carolina, I'm comforted by the fact that Evans appears to be the one Buc that is locked into usage each week. He saw 10 targets against the Panthers and is averaging 9.8 targets per game when Ryan Fitzpatrick starts. His $7,000 price tag is his lowest since Week 1 and his ownership will be suppressed due to the dud last week.
The matchup for Evans against Washington is middle-of-the-road. The Redskins have been merely average against the pass this season and are 19th in Pass Def DVOA. Evans will see part-time coverage from Josh Norman, but that hasn't been a matchup to fear this season. We've seen the Redskins struggle to contain proficient offenses, allowing 43 points to New Orleans in Week 5 and 38 to Atlanta last week. Say what you will about the Bucs, but they have been able to score this season and have scored more than 26 points in seven of eight games.
We are taking on some risks with Evans. As we saw last week, he tends to completely disappear in a few games each year. I'm willing to gamble on a big bounce-back game from Evans and I think he has as much upside as any WR on the slate.
SATURDAY UPDATE: Really surprised that Cincy WR Tyler Boyd ($7,500) isn't at the top of ownership projections. He's in line for all the work he can handle against a Saints defense that has struggled horribly against slot receivers. Those is need of major salary savings can also give the other Bengal WRs a look. John Ross ($3,900) and Alex Erickson ($3,400) have low floors, but will see increased usage for the injury-depleted Cincy receiving corps. Lots to like in the $6k range at WR this week, both the Pats and Rams have some interesting WRs priced in this range. Green Bay's Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($5,000) will be very popular, but offers tremendous value in his secure role in the GB offense. I'm penciling him in across the board.
TE CHALK: Travis Kelce ($7,000)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 17% *UPDATED: 20%
POWER PIVOT: Jimmy Graham ($4,600)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 9% *UPDATED: 10%
KC's Travis Kelce leads the way at TE this week. Kelce carries the position's highest salary and highest projected ownership. I almost never pay up at the TE spot, but I have to admit, it's very tempting to lock-in Kelce and the safety he brings in an ugly week at the position.
For the first time in several weeks, no one is really "popping" for me at TE. My stumping for David Njoku in this article has turned into a running joke at this point. I've also developed a DFS crush on O.J. Howard over the last few weeks.
Both of those guys are legit options, but in the interest of keeping things fresh, I'm going to give Green Bay TE Jimmy Graham some run this week. The Packers big off-season acquisition has settled in nicely with Aaron Rodgers. Graham had an ugly debut in the season opener and threw up a dud against the Rams a couple of weeks ago, but has otherwise been a rock-solid option at TE end on a weekly basis.
Graham found the end zone last week for just his second TD of the season and is due for some more positive regression in that department. He is averaging 7.25 targets per game over his last four. He is set to square off against a Dolphins defense that has allowed five TD's to tight ends in their last four games. Graham may not have the freakish upside that he used to possess, but he is a very solid option in what's a thin week at the TE position.
SATURDAY UPDATE: Big Jim trails only Kelce in projected ownership. Both are solid options at what's an ugly position this week. I'm kind of shocked that Tampa's O.J. Howard ($5,300) is currently projected to only garner a miniscule 2% ownership share. If Howard's projection stays that low, I will definitely go overweight on him in an attempt to gain leverage on the field. I will continue to keep an eye on David Njoku ($4,200) who has been dinged up, but gets a juicy matchup against the Falcons.
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D/ST CHALK: New York Jets ($3,400)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 19% *UPDATED: 20%
POWER PIVOT: LA Chargers ($3,500)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 11% *UPDATED: 11%
The New York Jets lead ownership projections at DEF/ST. The Jets are taking on the lowly Buffalo Bills, who will trot out veteran journeyman Derek Anderson. I'm pretty disappointed that I don't get to employ my patented Nathan Peterman flow chart that goes like this..."Is Nathan Peterman starting? If 'Yes' auto-play opposing defense in 100% of lineups."
Since there's no Peterman this week, I'm sticking with my "common sense" approach to DEF/ST that has served me well over the last several weeks. Besides the Bills, the most lifeless offense that I have seen recently belongs to the Oakland Raiders. Void of talent and apparently pride, Oakland appears to have quit on this season and are entering full-on tank mode.
The Raiders are facing a quickly improving LA Chargers defense that is $100 more expensive than the Jets, but brings a whole lot more talent to the table. The Chargers are finally playing like the defense we all thought they would be this year. They have held opponents under 20 points in five consecutive games and have scored over 10 DraftKings points in three of their last four. I've made a pledge to myself to stop "overthinking" things at the DEF/ST spot and LA makes the most sense to me in a smash matchup against the Raiders.
SATURDAY UPDATE: Not much movement ownership-wise here. I'm keeping a close eye on the Bills QB news, as Derek Anderson as been ruled out. The Jets are a terrific play either way, but if Peterman is named the starter, I'm all-in. I still really like the Chargers against the tanking Raiders. The Chiefs are a sneaky-good defensive unit at home and have rookie QB Josh Rosen coming to Arrowhead. They are a solid leverage play in large-field situations.
