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Scott Cullen provides his NFL DFS prop picks for September 21st, 2020 on Monkey Knife Fight. Make your DFS picks with his fantasy football advice.
The second Monday of the NFL season brings a compelling matchup between the New Orleans Saints and the Las Vegas Raiders. As always, the game presents many opportunities to play props and win with Monkey Knife Fight.
The Saints are coming off a 34-23 win against Tampa Bay in Week One, taking advantage of three Buccaneers turnovers to cruise to a comfortable victory. The Saints entered the season as one of the expected top teams in the NFC and they did nothing to alter that opinion.
In a tighter contest that involved seven lead changes, the Raiders ultimately prevailed with a 34-30 victory at Carolina. Expectations weren’t quite as high for Las Vegas this season but they were expected to be a competitive team.
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Here are some prop angles to consider for Monday’s New Orleans-Las Vegas NFL matchup on Monkey Knife Fight:
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NEW ORLEANS-LAS VEGAS
MORE OR LESS
Drew Brees MORE THAN 268.5 PASSING YARDS
Although Brees was limited to just 160 yards passing in Week One, he did average more than 270 yards passing per game last season and that includes a game which he left with injury after throwing five passes. The Raiders allowed nearly 257 passing yards per game, the eighth-highest average in the league last season and surrendered 269 passing yards to Carolina’s Teddy Bridgewater in Week One.
The real question may be whether or not the Saints can find a way to replace the production of star wide receiver Michael Thomas, who will miss Monday night’s game due to a high ankle sprain.
Derek Carr LESS THAN 260.5 PASSING YARDS
The Raiders quarterback threw for 239 yards at Carolina in Week One and has averaged 246.8 passing yards per game in the past three seasons. New Orleans allowed 241.8 passing yards per game last season, which was a little higher than league average, but just 5.9 net yards per attempt, which was clearly better than average – it indicates a team that had strong pass defense but allowed more yardage because they were leading a lot of games so their opponents may have been more inclined to pass more frequently in order to catch up.
Josh Jacobs MORE THAN 66.5 RUSHING YARDS
In his impressive 2019 rookie season, Jacobs churned out 88.5 rushing yards per game and then he ran for 93 yards (and three touchdowns) in Week One at Carolina. While the Saints had a solid run defense last season – 91.8 rushing yards against per game was the fourth-lowest mark in the league – and allowed 86 yards, including 66 yards on 17 carries to Ronald Jones II, to Tampa Bay in Week One. This suggests that if Jacobs is the main ball carrier for the Raiders, and he is, then he will have a pretty decent shot at rushing for at least 67 yards.
Jared Cook MORE THAN 55.5 RECEIVING YARDS
The Saints tight end averaged 50.4 receiving yards per game last season and had five catches for 80 yards at Carolina in Week One. With Thomas injured, Cook should be a more frequent target for Brees and while he’s not as likely to burst over 100 yards, it’s reasonable to expect Cook to put up more than 55.
Alvin Kamara LESS THAN 22.5 FANTASY POINTS
One of the most talented playmakers in the league, Kamara was also held to 16 yards on 12 carries against Tampa Bay in Week One. He did, however, finish with 67 yards and two touchdowns because he added five catches for 51 yards. His use as a pass receiver does give him a leg up in the PPR scoring used by Monkey Knife Fight. At the same time, despite those two touchdowns in Week One, Kamara is at least somewhat at risk of losing some rushing touchdown opportunities to Latavius Murray and finding the end zone makes it much easier to get to 23 or more fantasy points. Kamara could get there but it won’t be easy so the under appears safer.
RAPID FIRE
Josh Jacobs -13.5 rushing yards vs. Alvin Kamara
Kamara’s value as a pass catcher also tends to obscure the fact that he doesn’t tend to put up huge rushing totals. Last season, he averaged 56.9 rushing yards per game, compared to Jacobs putting up 88.5 rushing yards per game. That’s enough of a spread to take Jacobs and hope that the Raiders can at least keep it close so that they get to run the ball.
Darren Waller -0.5 receptions vs. Emmanuel Sanders
Waller, the Raiders tight end, busted out last season to catch 90 passes, 5.6 per game, and opened the 2020 season with six catches for 45 yards on eight targets. Sanders had just three catches for 15 yards against Tampa Bay and caught more than five passes just three times last season while playing with Denver and San Francisco. Certainly, there is a bigger role for Sanders to play in the New Orleans offense with Michael Thomas out of the lineup but it’s pretty easy to envision Waller with half a dozen (or more) catches and still a little more difficult to see that for Sanders.
