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NFL DFS Prop Picks for 9/12/19 - Monkey Knife Fight


Thursday night football doesn’t seem to bring the best out of NFL teams and that certainly held true in the first week of this season as the Bears and Packers slogged their way through a miserable game but there is a chance for more excitement this week when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers visit the Carolina Panthers.

The takeaway from Week One for the Bucs is that they underperformed. Quarterback Jameis Winston struggled and that left his receivers wanting more. Can they fix the aerial attack at Carolina?

In the Panthers’ case, their offense was much more according to plan. A heavy dose of Christian McCaffrey and a dash of D.J. Moore had them hanging close with the Los Angeles Rams before ultimately falling short. Will that same game plan work against Tampa Bay?

Here are some angles to consider when making prop picks on Monkey Knife Fight for Thursday’s game.

TAMPA BAY-CAROLINA

View Contest

OVER/UNDERS

Jameis Winston OVER 277.5 PASSING YARDS – There’s not much reason to be optimistic following Winston’s Week One performance, when he completed 55.6% of his passes for 196 yards with one touchdown and three interceptions in a 31-17 loss to San Francisco. It would be easy (and fun, too!) to write off Winston and decide that he’s not equipped to make the most of this Bruce Arians passing attack. Carolina’s pass defense was a little below average last season, allowing 240.4 yards per game, and 7.7 yards per attempt and while that’s not a big swing, it’s enough reason to like Winston as an underdog who may need to throw to keep the Bucs in the game.

Cam Newton UNDER 264.5 PASSING YARDS – The thing with Newton is that he can have a monstrously productive game even with modest passing stats. Such is the power of his rushing attack. After throwing for 239 yards in Week One, it’s hard to make the jump to 265-plus yards this week because while Newton threw for 265 yards or more in six of 14 games last season, every one of those games was on the road – he hasn’t thrown for 265 yards or more at home since Week Two in 2016!

Chris Godwin UNDER 16.5 FANTASY POINTS – One of the most popular sleepers in fantasy football this year, the third-year receiver had three catches for 53 yards and a touchdown on six total targets in Week One. That’s fine, pretty much an average week for him since the start of last season, but to cover that number he needs a notable uptick in yardage or another touchdown and it’s a dicey proposition to lean too heavily on needing a score.

D.J. Moore OVER 15.5 FANTASY POINTS – While Moore had a respectable seven catches for 76 yards in Week One, the fact that he was targeted 10 times was a great sign for the second year wideout’s role in the Panthers offense. While it’s difficult to get too excited about the Panthers’ passing game, it’s not unreasonable to have some optimism for Moore’s place in that offense.

Christian McCaffrey OVER 28.5 FANTASY POINTS – Feed the beast. The Panthers gave the ball to McCaffrey 29 times in Week One and he responded with 209 yards from scrimmage, including 81 yards on 10 catches. Considering the PPR nature of Monkey Knife Fight’s fantasy scoring system, McCaffrey is a player with enormous upside, enough to think he might cover this huge number.

Ronald Jones UNDER 42.5 RUSHING YARDS – The second year running back had a total of 23 rushes for the Bucs as a rookie and wasn’t very impressive. In Week One, he delivered 75 rushing yards on 13 carries, an intriguing and somewhat surprising development in his battle for backfield touches with Peyton Barber.

Mike Evans OVER 85.5 RECEIVING YARDS – Last season, Evans averaged 95.3 receiving yards per game and he stumbled out of the gate this season with two catches for 28 yards in the opener. When the marquee receiver gets shut down in the first week, get that game plan ready to get him on track in Week Two.

RAPID FIRE

Christian McCaffrey -1.5 receptions vs. Mike Evans – As much as the Bucs game plan could use a whole lot more of Evans this week, there’s much more uncertainty there. McCaffrey was targeted 11 times in Week One, compared to just five for Evans. Given how consistently McCaffrey is part of Carolina’s passing game, he’st still the safe play here.

Peyton Barber +4.5 rushing yards vs. Ronald Jones – Jones’ surprising Week One performance came at the expense of Barber, to some degree. Considering that Barber has a little more track record to lean on and the possibility that some touches are up for grabs, give the underdog a shot.

D.J. Moore +2.5 receiving yards vs. Chris Godwin – These are two promising young receivers who have potential to become big-time receivers for their respective teams but Moore is more likely to get more targets from his quarterback, enough to like him as a slight underdog when it comes to receiving yards.

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