NFL Betting Picks For Week 3 (9/27/2020) - Moneylines, Totals, and Spreads

September 26, 2020

Steve Janik analyzes the NFL Week 3 slate of games and recommends his best bets. He selects three games and breaks down each team's roster, recent performance, and situation to help you make informed decisions when gambling on this NFL season.

Week 2 brought along one of the worst, in terms of injuries, that we've seen in a long time. It didn't quite affect my picks, but Christian McCaffrey going down definitely made things hard for Carolina down the stretch. Green Bay almost hit the over themselves, so that was an easy cash. Then Sunday Night Football came along and gave us one of the most exciting offensive explosions we've seen in awhile. All-in-all, not a great week for us, but as usual, it's onto the next!

• Week 2: 1-2 (33%, -.8u)
• 2019 Season: 2-4 (33%, -1.9u)

Things are going to get interesting with the amount of injuries we're seeing around the league, but that will make capping more fun, I think? I'm not a professional but I love researching stats and finding value. My goal is to provide you with information that can help you make informed bets, whether you agree or disagree with me. I "bet to lose" one unit on almost every play but will definitely label it if I do differently.

I'm here to bring you my best bets and recommendations for Week 3 of the 2020 NFL season. I'll be here at Rotoballer all season long and you can find me on Twitter @RotoStevieJ. I am always down to chat and spend most of my days and nights browsing for information or news. You can also follow me on the Action app (@sgjanik6) where I'll post every pick I have for a day and week. With that, I hope you enjoy, best of luck, and please bet responsibly!

Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4, -205)

O/U: 45

Man do the Texans miss DeAndre Hopkins. David Johnson struggled against the Ravens a week ago and gets an even tougher matchup this week, but he'll need to start producing to makeup for the missing Nuk. Naturally, Deshaun Watson has felt extra pressure to make plays, and while he still has some weapons in Brandin Cooks and Will Fuller, no one can predict when they show up and when they don't. As an offense, they're middle of the pack with an average of 5.8 yards per play (ypp) but they've averaged just 18 ppg through the first two weeks and have struggled getting red zone opportunities so far. Defensively, they've allowed just under 400 ypg and given up 61 points to the Chiefs and Ravens, two great offenses. While the Steelers aren't at that level, they sure are talented.

Nature is healing when you have Ben Roethlisberger slinging the rock 41 times to nine different receivers. There were obvious questions about him coming into the season, and while they haven't been completely answered, we've seen an eagerness from the future Hall of Famer. His backfield mate James Conner is a bit of a wild card but when he's healthy and getting opportunities, he thrives in this offense, as evidenced by the 106 rushing yards and a score last week. The Steelers also have a potentially league-winning trio of receivers in JuJu Smith-Schuster, Diontae Johnson, and Chase Claypool. The latter two are more trusted, but at any point one could take over a game. There's not much that needs to be said about the Pittsburgh defense, though they did get a little lackadaisical in the second half against the Broncos last week, this is not so arguably the best defense in the NFL.

If there were fans in the stands, the Steelers might be at -6. While I don't believe it will be quite that one sided, books have the Steelers at -2.5/3 in the first half and I like that spot as well. Coming down to the nitty gritty, the Steelers at home is a different animal, with or without fans and Roethlisberger will give his defense an early lead so they can put pressure on Watson and force him to make mistakes.

Pick: Pittsburgh -4 (+109, Draftkings 20% Profit Boost) 1 Unit

Tennessee Titans (-2.5, -141) at Minnesota Vikings

O/U: 49.5

The Titans were a sleeper team in the AFC Coming into 2020, and they've made good on that by starting 2-0. Ryan Tannehill has gotten off to a blazing start with six touchdowns and no interceptions through two games, while Derrick Henry has averaged 100 yards but has yet to find pay dirt. Top receiver A.J. Brown (knee) will miss his second-straight game which leaves unproven Corey Davis and Jonnu Smith as the leading receivers for an offense that averages only 239 passing yards to start the season. Defensively, the Titans are one of nine teams to allow an average of at least 400 yards per game to their opponents. A problematic stat early in the season is the four redzone trips that their opponents average.

Minnesota has been severely disappointing, leading to an 0-2 record. Sure they scored 34 Week 1, but they still lost by double digits. Kirk Cousins is having a real probelm throwing to anyone bu Adam Thielen, who's caught both of Cousins' touchdowns. Unsurprisingly, the Viking shave relied on Dalvin Cook to pace their offense, and his three scores show that, but just 113 yards through two games isn't going to get it done. On the defense, the Vikings have allowed 10 red zone trips through two games, so that's an obvious "room for improvement."

We're buying the hook here. Minnesota has the best ATS record at home since 2014 (when Mike Zimmer became head coach) at 33-17-1. Both of these offenses might struggle to move the ball, which leads me to believe it will be ket quite close, and at home I favor the Vikings.

Pick: Minnesota +3 (Draftkings) 1 Unit

New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts (-11.5, -560)

O/U: 44

It's hard to find nice things to say about the Jets. They've averaged just 15 ppg (only better than the Giants) and just 4.6 yards per play. Sam Darnold hasn't been awful but the only weapons he does have keep going away. Le'Veon Bell (hamstring) and Jamison Crowder (hamstring) are both out, leaving the eternal Frank Gore, Breshad Perriman, and Chris Herndon to make all the plays; not exactly a recipe for success. The Jets Defense has given up at least 27 points and over 350 yards per game, and granted it was against the Bills and 49ers, but flat out the Jets defense will be bad all season.

This is certainly a new look Colts offense with Phillip Rivers taking snaps. Things haven't been all sunshine and rainbows, as the offense lost two producers, but their fill-ins will be able to handle the workload. Johnathan Taylor has been impressive with 135 yards and a score on the ground, and while the passing game hasn't taken off yet, T.Y. Hilton is still in town with Parris Campbell and Mo Allie Cox expected to see increased workloads. Defensively, I expect the Colts to have their way with Adam Gase's offense. They've held the Jags and Vikings to under 250 yards of offense, and that was with giving up 27 points in a loss to Jacksonville. With seven sacks, they've been one of the best at getting to the quarterback, and that means errors made by Darnold.

I don't have confidence in the offense moving the ball consistently. Sure, they'll have their moments, but Indy has a sneaky good offense that can create opportunities with pressure. I also think the Colts will have their struggles on offense until Taylor gets more comfortable in the NFL. I'm looking for a low-scoring, easy win for the boys from Indianapolis.

Pick: Under 44 (Draftkings) 1 Unit

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