X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Pitchers With New Pitches - Should We Care For Fantasy Baseball? Part Three

Tylor Megill fantasy baseball rankings waiver wire pickups draft sleepers

Will these starting pitchers be fantasy baseball breakouts? Eric Samulski evaluates SPs who have developed new pitches for 2022, in part 3 of his series.

Welcome to another episode in this FSWA-award-winning series Pitchers with New Pitches. We take the simple premise that not every new pitch should be greeted with praise. The new pitch, like the shiny new toy, might be exciting on its own, but it also needs to be a complement to what a pitcher already has.

So instead of just celebrating that some pitchers are throwing new pitches, I watch the pitch in action, check in on its performance, and looked at the Statcast Spin Direction graphics to see if it might actually make the pitcher any more effective. From there, I try to give you a simple verdict as to whether or not we should care about this new toy or not.

It's also important to note that for many of these pitchers, this is the first time they've thrown these new pitches in a game situation, so the overall quality and consistency may get better over time, and I've tried to take that into account in my analysis. We should also note that, for the purposes of this article, I will also be including pitchers that have reworked or revamped a pitch to make it "new" even if it was technically a pitch they already threw.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Tylor Megill - Slider and Change-up (re-shaped)

Tylor Megill came out of nowhere last year and flashed some potential but finished 4-6 with a 4.52 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and 19 K-BB%. However, due to the injury to Jacob deGrom, Megill found himself in the rotation to start the 2022 season and has been a revelation, pitching to a 4-1 record with a 2.43 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and 21.5 K-BB%.

A big driver of Megill's success this year has been the result of reworking both his slider and change-up in the offseason. While the new slider is thrown at basically the same velocity as last year, Megill added three inches of drop and just over an inch of horizontal break. It's still a hard, bullet slider, with just 3.5 inches of sweep overall but the added drop now gives the pitch above average vertical movement compared to the MLB average.

The added drop also gives it more differentiation from the four-seam, which is important since the pitch doesn't sweep as much as a traditional slider. In the Spin Direction graphics below, you can see how the slider actually starts at a similar trajectory to the fastball but now has more deviation so it ends up almost opposite the fastball on the clock. This means the slider appears similar to the fastball until the bottom drops out, which can increase the effectiveness of both pitches.

On the season, the slider has registered just a .042 batting average against while racking up a 14.3 SwStr% and allowing no barrels, 76.9% poor contact against, and a -3.45 deserved ERA (dERA). Considering the pitch registered a 2.81 dERA last year, that's a massive improvement and one we need to take note of.

However, Megill might have made bigger alterations to his change-up this year. For starters, Megill is now throwing his change-up at 88.9 mph, which is a huge jump from the 85.4 mph pitch he was throwing the pitch last year. Additionally, after throwing the pitch with 28.9 inches of vertical drop and 13.2 inches of run, he's now throwing it with 27.6 inches of drop and 15 inches of run, so slightly less drop and a bit more run away from lefties.

While the movement profile alone doesn't seem like a major change, considering the 4 mph increase, it makes the pitch look markedly different and also changes the way it pairs with the fastball, as you can see in the video below.

I think that the way the three pitches work together is likely more important than the pitchers individually. In fact, the re-shaped change-up has not been more effective in 2022. It has a .267 average against, a .500 slugging percentage allowed, and a 13.3 SwStr%. Last season, Megill's changeup allowed a .256 average, .512 slugging percentage, and 18.5 SwStr%, so the contact allowed is basically the same with slightly worse swing-and-miss.

However, there have been some changes in the quality of contact. Last season, the change-up allowed a 17.2% dynamic hard-hit rate and induced just 40% groundballs. Since it was hit hard in the air (91 mph exit velocity on fly balls and line drives), that was an issue.

However, this year, the change has allowed just a 7.7% dynamic hard-hit rate and is inducing a 57.7% groundball rate. The pitch also isn't being hit nearly as hard in the air (83.5 mph exit velocity on fly balls and line drives), so while the surface-level stats aren't great, it seems as though the new change-up is inducing weaker contact and becoming a key groundball pitch for Megill.

While the change-up itself isn't a better offering, the revamped arsenal is allowing Megill's four-seam fastball to play up more. Since the change-up is faster and has less hump, it appears like a fastball for longer, creating more deception with the fastball, which you can see in the video above.

So while this version of the change-up is fairly similar to last year's version, Megill's slider has been electric and his four-seam is missing more bats (16.5 SwStr% up from 10.4%) and is more effective overall (2.04 dERA compared to 5.35 dERA). To me, the improved fastball performance is likely tied to this re-shaped arsenal. That makes more sense than saying the whole reason for the improved fastball performance is because it's being thrown 0.9 mph harder. Sure, that helps, but that's not enough of a reason to see that level of improvement.

VERDICT: CLEARLY IMPACTFUL. Megill is growing as a pitcher and putting together an arsenal that works well off of one another. He may not be an elite strikeout pitcher because none of these pitches is putting up crazy SwStr% numbers, but I think that his arsenal has enough depth and deception to make him a reliable fantasy and real-life starter. We will see regression in his ratios, and his lack of elite out pitch will lead to some more laborious outings, but this is not a flash in the pan.

What is interesting to note, and a conversation, for another time, is that Megill's four-seam is the only pitch with over a 29% CSW. While the swing-and-miss rates and his change and slider are solid, his called strikes are not particularly high, which might mean he's not varying to use and location of those pitches. But that would take a deeper dive to figure out.

 

Zach Eflin - Cutter and Curve (Re-Shaped)

Last year was a solid year for Eflin, who pitched to a 4.17 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 18.8% K-BB% in 105 innings before missing the rest of the season with knee surgery. It was expected that Eflin would have a delayed start to the season, but he quickly emerged as a rotation option in Spring Training and then broke camp with the team.

Through five starts, Eflin is 1-2 with a 4.50 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and 12.7 K-BB%. However, he's also registered a 3.77 xFIP, 3.89 SIERA, and 2.66 xERA, so what can we really make of Elfin?

Well, for starters, as you can see below, Eflin has modified his pitch mix slightly as a 28-year-old in his seventh MLB season. Eflin has added a cutter while also decreasing the use of his slider, increasing the of his four-seam slightly, and making his curve his second most-used pitch.

Let's start with adding the cutter since this is an article about new pitches. On the positive side, the cutter has a 14 SwStr%, which is pretty solid. However, the pitch hasn't been great, registering a 7.35 dERA with a 37.5% hard contact rate, and a 30.9-degree launch angle, so it's also not the groundball pitch that many cutters are.

Theoretically, the cutter should be a good pairing with Eflin's primary pitch, his sinker. As you can see from the Spin Direction graphics below, the cutter and sinker approach the hitter at a similar trajectory and both have practically the same deviation, but the sinker runs in on righties, while the cutter moves away.

It may seem like using the slider, which Eflin did last year, is better because it has more overall movement, but the cutter and sinker moving almost the same but in opposite directions would allow those pitches to tunnel better together. However, so far on the season, the sinker is being hit harder than it was last year, and we already established that the cutter hasn't been overly successful.

Getting rid of the slider was also not a slam dunk move for Eflin. Last season, the slider showed the potential to be a pretty good pitch. It registered a 14.2 SwStr%, 33% CSW, and allowed just 1.6% barrel rate. The slider did have a .321 batting average against but just a .216 xBA; however, it did have an 11.3% dynamic hard-hit rate, which was the second-most of any of his pitches. For that reason, the deserved (dERA) for the slider was 6.34.

So, in short, the pitch was good at missing bats and didn't allow a lot of barrels, but the good contact it did allow did a lot of damage. So, Eflin's change was to remove a mediocre pitch, but one that was good for missing bats, and replace it with a mediocre pitch that is almost equally as good at missing bats. It's conceivable that the shape of the cutter (harder and straighter than the slider) allows the sinker, and even the change-up, to play up more than last year because the pitches would tunnel a little better than with the slider and thus create more deception for the hitter.

However, I don't think that makes Eflin a different pitcher. The only thing that really changes him is that he responded to cutting back on his sinker by increasing the use of his curve. In 2021, Eflin's curve had a 4.10 dERA, 16.8% SwSr%, and 36.4% CSW, so even last year, it was his best pitch for swings and misses. This year it's been even better and has a 17.9% SwStr. Eflin is now also throwing the pitch 24% of the time in two-strike counts after throwing it just 15% in similar situations last year. Last year, he also threw the slider 21% in two-strike counts but has cut that down to just 11% now.

So this is certainly a promising development, but it has nothing to do with the cutter.

VERDICT: NOT IMPACTFUL. Eflin using the curve more overall and in two-strike counts is the big news here. The addition of the cutter really does nothing for me. Eflin's slider is also still offering nothing, so it's possible that he should just ditch one of those offerings. There's really no reason he needs to be throwing six pitches.

If he focuses on the sinker and curve and then continues to use the four-seam as a two-strike pitch, which he's been doing successfully this season, he would have the foundation of a strong arsenal. He would then be able to mix in the cutter and change-up depending on the handedness of the batter, but right now he's throwing a little bit of everything at everybody and it's not really working for him. However, he's an intriguing arm if he can iron out his pitch mix. 

 

Merrill Kelly - Change-Up (re-shape)

Merrill Kelly is off to a fast start, pitching to a 1.22 ERA and 1.03 WHIP after six starts. He's also improved his strikeout rate to 23% and his K-BB% has climbed to a solid 16.9%. Now, Kelly is still not a strikeout pitcher, with just a 9.3 SwStr% so the questions we have to ask are: How is he doing this, and is it sustainable?

Well, three things jump out in regards to how. The first is that Kelly's fastball velocity is up just under one mph, which has also led to his sinker and changeup also being thrown slightly harder. The second is merely health, which I covered in an offseason article detailing how solid Kelly was last year before testing positive for COVID.

However, the third change that we need to discuss is how Kelly re-shaped his changeup. In the offseason, Kelly added spin to his changeup, which helped to create more drop and arm-side run in relation to similar pitches. You can see the difference and the way in which the change-up pairs with his other pitches here.

I believe the pairing of the change-up and the cutter are crucial for Kelly. In fact, those are the biggest changes to his pitch mix as well. Kelly has upped the use of his cutter from 14.1% in 2021 to 22.6% in 2022 and has upped the use of his change-up from 17.4% in 2021 to 23.6% in 2022, making it his second most-used pitch.

Both of those pitches have currently returned a batting average under .200 and have allowed Kelly to move away from using his sinker, which was his worst pitch last year. So why is the new change-up such a good pairing with the cutter? For starters, let's look at the Spin Direction graphics below.

The first thing that should stand out is that the four-seam, change-up, and cutter all approach the batter at a similar trajectory (image on the left) but then the cutter has a +45 deviation to the left, so away from a right-handed hitter, while the change-up has a -60 deviation into the right-handed hitter. The four-seam rides the middle, which creates nice deception between the three offerings.

You'll also notice that the sinker and change-up move in similar directions, with the same deviation, so it's not really necessary for Kelly to feature both. Since the change-up is four mph slower and has more vertical drop, it has become the better partner for the other offerings and has a 30% whiff rate on the season, the most of any of Kelly's pitches. It has also allowed just a .179 batting average against, which has made it Kelly's best pitch overall.

Just as a final note, you'll see that Kelly's curve is almost a perfect mirror of the three other offerings, so while Kelly is not using that pitch as much this year, it gives him a fourth pitch that meshes well with his other offerings, which helps raise his floor.

VERDICT: CLEARLY IMPACTFUL. I think Kelly was being underrated coming into this season, but the new change-up makes him even more stable in my book. The fact that he has enough confidence in his new change-up to significantly dial back on his sinker usage is just a feather in his cap. Kelly has optimizes his arsenal, which will help him get consistent results. He's not going to be a high strikeout arm, and we know his ratios will not remain this low, but I think Kelly will remain a strong 12+ team league pitcher this whole year. 

 

Spenser Watkins - Slider and Curve (re-shaped)

Now, let's look at an option for deep leagues. You're probably not rostering Watkins anywhere right now except maybe in AL-only leagues; however, the right-hander has a 3.22 ERA and 1.39 WHIP across 22.1 innings to start the season; albeit, with just a 10.3% strikeout rate.  

Coming over from Detroit last year, Watkins was solid in Triple-A for Baltimore, but got hit around to an 8.07 ERA and 2.30 HR/9 in 16 games for Baltimore at the MLB level. A big issue for Watkins was his fastball, which allowed a .347 batting average, .643 SLG, and six of his 14 total home runs.

On top of that, Watkins really had nothing to support it. He threw his cutter 30.9% of the time, but it had a .275 BAA and just a 10.2 SwStr% and 21.4% CSW. His curveball got slightly more whiffs - with an 11.4 SwStr% - but it allowed a .382 average and .765 SLG. In short, nothing worked.

In 2022, three things are different for Watkins. The easiest to see is that his four-seam is up to 92.4 mph, which is a 1.6 mph increase from 2021. That's not nothing; however, his fastball is pretty flat and still has just a 2.6% whiff rate in 2022 despite only a .240 batting average against.

The other keys for Watkins might be his new slider and re-shaped curveball. The slider has been great for Watkins partially because it gets well-above-average 16.3 inches of horizontal movement, but also because of the way it pairs with the curve, which you can see here:

Although he only throws the pitch 16.4% of the time, the slider gives Watkins a true swing-and-miss pitch. As of now, he is using it pretty much exclusively for righties.

I think that Watkins could even get away with using the slider more to lefties because it pairs relatively well with the cutter but is 8 mph slower and could keep hitters off balance. It would also give him a true strikeout pitch against lefties because the cutter, change, and the curve have not proven to be that.

However, the curve is also an intriguing new pitch since Watkins is throwing it a full mph slower but has also added far more movement. Last year, Watkins' curve had 0.5 inches of horizontal movement; this year, it has 5.6 inches of break. Last year, it also had 51.7 inches of drop, but this year it has 59.5 inches of drop. He is currently earning a 23.8% called strike rate on the pitch and 33.3% CSW, which shows that it might be fooling hitters.

Those are two pretty drastic changes to his arsenal, which shouldn't be overlooked, but we're also talking about a 29-year-old who has yet to break through in the majors, so I don't think this will wind up being anything other than AL-Only fodder or potentially a one-off streamer in deep leagues.

VERDICT: POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL. Now, remember, potentially impactful for Watkins means that he might be relevant in deep leagues, which would be a big change given where he was last season. He'll need the curve and the slider to both be impactful because he has a bad fastball, but there is a future where Watkins ditches his fastball and could carve out a value for himself as a pitcher with a low walk rate who pitches to a low 4.00 ERA and a K/9 just under 8.00. That's usable in deeper leagues but certainly not something you're chasing in redraft formats.  



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Shemar Stewart

Not Practicing With College Team
Uchenna Nwosu

Seahawks Place Uchenna Nwosu on PUP List
Taylor Decker

Alim McNeill, Taylor Decker Placed on PUP List
Tyrion Davis-Price

Titans Waive Tyrion Davis-Price
Tre Harris

Chargers Relying on Tre Harris to Be Starting X Receiver
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Expected Back Friday
Micah Parsons

Will Become Highest-Paid Non-QB
MarShawn Lloyd

Vying for RB2 Role
Keandre Lambert-Smith

KeAndre Lambert-Smith Finds End Zone in First Training Camp Practice
Tyler Shough

Pushing for Fully Guaranteed Rookie Deal
Ar'Darius Washington

Goes on PUP List
Lamar Jackson

to be Even Better in 2025?
Tre Harris

Agrees to Terms on Rookie Deal
Justin Herbert

Off to Good Start at Training Camp
Jameson Williams

Earning Rave Reviews from Lions Coaches
Christian Mahogany

Expected to Start for Lions
Zach Allen

an Extension Candidate in Denver?
Zaire Franklin

May Miss Start of Training Camp
Portland Trail Blazers

Damian Lillard Returning to Portland
Mason Taylor

to Play "Crucial" Role in Jets' Offense
Paul Skenes

Pirates Could Preserve Paul Skenes in Second Half
T.J. Watt

Once Again Becomes Highest-Paid Non-QB
RJ Harvey

Reaches Agreement on Four-Year Rookie Contract
Rashee Rice

Chiefs Believe Rashee Rice Will Receive Two- to Four-Game Suspension
Brooks Barnhizer

Grabs 19 Points, Nine Boards in Summer League Win
Jeremiah Fears

Scores 22 Points in Summer League Loss to Thunder
Isaiah Collier

Collects 17 Points In Summer League Win
Caleb Houstan

Joins Hawks
AJ Johnson

Erupts for 25 Points in Summer League Loss
Washington Wizards

Leaky Black Logs Double-Double in Loss to Jazz
Connor Norby

Undergoes Surgery, Expected to Miss 6-8 Weeks
Trey Alexander

Tallies 25 Points in Losing Effort
Johni Broome

Records Second Consecutive Double-Double
Jahmir Young

Has Historic Summer League Outing
Rob Dillingham

Plays Big Role in Wednesday's Win
Tyrese Proctor

Erupts for 35 Points Against Kings
Cody Williams

Leads Jazz to Victory Against Wizards
LeBron James

Mavs Not Interested in "Gutting its Roster" For LeBron James
Josh Hart

Undergoes a Procedure on Right Finger
Jake Burger

Goes on 10-Day Injured List With Quad Strain
Sal Frelick

Dealing With Grade 1 Hamstring Strain, TBD for Start of Second Half
Chris Sale

Plays Catch
Los Angeles Clippers

Bradley Beal Heading to Los Angeles to Join Clippers After Contract Buyout
Rayan Rupert

Scores 24 Points in Summer League Win
Derik Queen

Collects Third Consecutive Double-Double in Summer League Loss
GG Jackson II

Records 13 Points in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Johni Broome

Logs Double-Double Against Wizards
DaRon Holmes II

Records Double-Double in Summer League Loss to Raptors
Kyle Schwarber

Named All-Star Game MVP
Harris English

Takes Stellar 2025 Performance to The Open Championship
Aldrich Potgieter

Seeks Better Result in Northern Ireland
Cameron Young

Likely to Hang Around at The Open Championship
Cameron Smith

Just Trying to Make the Cut at Royal Portrush
Jordan Spieth

Is Jordan Spieth Still a Natural for Links Style Golf?
Patrick Reed

a Viable Option at The Open Championship
PGA

Sungjae Im Wants to Rebound from Last Experience at Royal Portrush
Xander Schauffele

Looks to Defend His Claret Jug at Royal Portrush
Tony Finau

Trying to Turn Tide at Royal Portrush
Daniel Brown

Seeks a Rebound at The Open Championship
Rory McIlroy

Will be the Most Watched Player This Week at Royal Portrush
Daniel Berger

Trending Poorly as The Open Championship Looms
Clayton Kershaw

Retires Both Batters In ASG Appearance
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Hit In Pinky In All-Star Game, X-Rays Negative
MLB

NL All-Stars Win On Tie-Breaker Home Run Swing-Off
Robert MacIntyre

Hoping to Bounce Back at Open Championship
Shane Lowry

Hopes to Repeat at Royal Portrush
Brian Harman

Hopes to Rekindle Some Magic at the 153rd Open
UTA

Michael Carcone Returns to Utah on One-Year Contract
Bowen Byram

Signs Two-Year Deal with Sabres
Morgan Barron

Jets Re-Sign Morgan Barron for Two Years
PGA

Chris Gotterup Punches Ticket to Royal Portrush With Win at Scottish Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Hopes to Reverse Links Golf Struggle at the 153rd Open
Keegan Bradley

Needs to Find The Weekend at Royal Portrush for Ryder Cup Hopes
Oneil Cruz

Ties Home Run Derby Distance Record
Cal Raleigh

Wins 2025 Home Run Derby
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied For 22nd at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Genesis Scottish Open
Jon Rahm

Finishes in Second at LIV Andalucia
Tallison Teixeira

Suffers First-Round TKO
Derrick Lewis

Scores First-Round TKO
Michael Lorenzen

Royals Put Michael Lorenzen on Injured List With Oblique Strain
Stephen Thompson

Loses Controversial Split Decision
Gabriel Bonfim

Wins Controversial Split Decision
Calvin Kattar

Gets Outclassed At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Extends His Win Streak
Nate Landwehr

Gets Knocked Out
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere Scores Third-Round Knockout
Austen Lane

Suffers Submission Loss
Vitor Petrino

Scores First-Round Submission In Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Earns His First UFC Win
Junior Tafa

Unsuccessful in his Light-Heavyweight Debut
Chase Elliott

Charges to A Finish of Third At Sonoma
Chase Briscoe

Finishes Second With his First Career Road-Course Top-Five at Sonoma
Christopher Bell

Rollercoaster Day Ends With Top-5 Finish at Sonoma
William Byron

Maintains the Regular-Season Points Lead
Kyle Busch

Earns A Hard-Fought Top-10 Finish At Sonoma
Alex Ovechkin

Not Thinking About Retirement
PIT

Penguins Acquire Arturs Silovs
NHL

Nikolai Kovalenko Returns to Russia
Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Tosses Gem Against Giants
Shota Imanaga

Shuts Down Yankees on Sunday
Nathan Eovaldi

Dominant Again in Seventh Win
Tyler Reddick

Evades Near Upset to Remain Alive in In-Season Challenge
Ty Gibbs

One of Three Tylers to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinals
Kyle Larson

Curiously Mediocre at Sonoma Before Late-Race Crash
NASCAR

John H. Nemechek Edges Out Teammate to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Alex Bowman

Ty Dillon Bumps Alex Bowman to Advance to In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Chicago White Sox

Billy Carlson Goes 10th Overall to White Sox
Cincinnati Reds

Steele Hall Selected Ninth by Cincinnati
Toronto Blue Jays

Blue Jays Select JoJo Parker with Eighth Overall Pick
Miami Marlins

Marlins Select Aiva Arquette With Seventh Overall Pick
Pittsburgh Pirates

Pirates Select Seth Hernandez with Sixth Overall Pick
Shane Van Gisbergen

Can Anyone Beat Shane van Gisbergen at Sonoma?
Tyler Reddick

Better at Sonoma Than Record Shows
Chase Elliott

a Prime DFS Option at Sonoma
Michael McDowell

Struggling a Bit at Sonoma
NASCAR

Christopher Bell Has Never Finished Better Than Ninth at Sonoma
Ryan Blaney

Has Top-10 Upside at Sonoma
NASCAR

Sunday at Sonoma Will Likely Be a Long Race for Bubba Wallace
Kyle Larson

Is A Likely Top-Five Contender for Sonoma
Ryan Preece

Points Position Could Affect Race at Sonoma
Todd Gilliland

Struggling to Find Speed at Sonoma
Ty Gibbs

May be an Underrated Favorite to Compete for the Win at Sonoma
Erik Karlsson

Open to Move Away From Pittsburgh
Zach Hyman

Hopes to be Ready for Start of Next Season
SJ

Jeff Skinner Joins Sharks on One-Year Contract
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF