RADIO
Analyzing all 16 drivers that made it into the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs and their chances of advancing from the Round of 16 to the Round of 12.
Are you ready for some postseason action!? With 26 races complete in the NASCAR Cup Series season, we've officially made it to the playoffs, and we now have 10 races before we crown a champion. The Round of 16 starts this weekend at Atlanta Motor Speedway, with the other two races of this first round being at Watkins Glen and Bristol.
This round of the playoffs has the potential to be chaotic. Atlanta races like a superspeedway, so we could see plenty of drivers wreck out on Sunday, and then we head to the road course at Watkins Glen before settling the first round at Bristol. If you remember back to the first Bristol race this season, tire wear was a major issue, which could throw another wrench into this first round of the playoffs if those issues reappear.
In total, 16 drivers made it into the playoffs for the Cup Series, with several notable drivers missing out thanks to some surprise victories during the regular season. Austin Cindric, Harrison Burton, and Chase Briscoe all grabbed shocking wins, keeping Chris Buescher, Bubba Wallace, Ross Chastain, and Kyle Busch out of the postseason this year.
How NASCAR's Playoffs Work
The NASCAR postseason is 10 races long and can be an exciting, elimination-filled spectacle to watch. The 10 races are broken down into four rounds; the Round of 16, the Round of 12, the Round of 8, and then the Championship race. Each of the first three rounds contains three races each, and then the Championship race is one finale.
Drivers earned playoff points during the regular season based on race wins, Stage wins, and the regular-season points standings. These points are carried over into each round for each driver; for example, Kyle Larson locked in 40 Playoff points during the regular season. He will start the Round of 16 with those 40 points already credited to him, and if he makes the Round of 12, he will once again start with 40 points.
Four drivers are eliminated after each round. If any playoff driver wins a race during the round, he is automatically locked into the next round. After that, the points standings of the rest of the drivers determine who advances and who is eliminated from contention. The driver points reset at the beginning of each round, although each driver gets their aforementioned locked-in playoff points to start each round.
Kyle Larson's Round One Outlook
Current Form: Speed-wise, Larson has been one of the best this season. He ranks second-fastest behind Denny Hamlin in Green Flag Speed this year while Larson ranks the best in Average Running Position in 2024.
A big part of that is this No. 5 team's ability to qualify well; Larson leads the series in average starting position (9.2), which is a big reason why he scored 253 Stage points in the regular season--20 points more than anybody else.
How Round One Shapes Up: Atlanta is Larson's biggest, and pretty much only weakness in Round One. He has finished 30th or worse in four of the five races there on the new configuration/surface.
At Watkins Glen, though, Larson has won two of the last three races, and at Bristol he has finished sixth or better in seven of the last eight races, including a fifth-place run there earlier this year.
Chances of Advancing To Round Two: Very high. Larson is starting the postseason with a 35-point advantage over the cutline. He's not very good at finishing superspeedway races, but "Yung Money" is elite at both Watkins Glen and Bristol. If Larson wrecks out at Atlanta and then has a mechanical issue at Watkins Glen, we can kind of start to hit the panic button, but even then he'd have a good chance at advancing.
Christopher Bell's Round One Outlook
Current Form: Christopher Bell had a very good regular season, but it had some negatives as well. He tied for the second-most in the series with three victories while piling up nine top fives and 15 top 10s.
However, Bell also led all playoff drivers with six DNFs during the first 26 races of the year (23.1%). The good news for Bell is that he is ultra-elite on the short, flat tracks, so if he can advance to the Championship race in Phoenix, he could run away with it.
How Round One Shapes Up: Bell has struggled to get good finishes at the "new" Atlanta, but he did wind up third here back in 2023, and he also crossed the stripe third at Daytona in both races this year. At Watkins Glen, Bell has never finished worse than eighth in his three career starts there, and over the last three Bristol concrete races, he is averaging 119.7 laps led per race with no result worse than 10th.
Chances of Advancing To Round Two: Very high. Christopher Bell's situation in Round One is very similar to Kyle Larson's. He struggles at Atlanta, but Bell is great at Watkins Glen and has been one of the best at Bristol in the Next Gen era.
The 27-point cushion Bell has over the cutline heading into the first should provide plenty of breathing room even if a couple of bad races happen. He really needs to clean up those DNF issues, though.
Tyler Reddick's Round One Outlook
Current Form: At the top of his game. Tyler Reddick won the regular season points championship while leading the series in average finish (11.2), top-five finishes (11), and top-10 finishes (18).
He ranks fourth-fastest in Green Flag Speed thus far in 2024 and is already having a career year stats-wise. In his second full-time season with 23XI Racing, Tyler Reddick has shown to be a legitimate championship contender.
How Round One Shapes Up: Atlanta has been an alright track for Tyler Reddick since it was repaved and reconfigured, as he's earned points in four of the 10 possible Stages and finished fifth in the first race there in 2023.
Reddick is a prolific road course racer, but he has zero top-five finishes in three Watkins Glen starts (although he's never finished worse than 10th either). Still, he could win there. At Bristol, Reddick had a fourth-place finish there in 2020 but that is his only top-10 result in six career starts.
Chances of Advancing To Round Two: High. Reddick needs to avoid catastrophe in Atlanta. His 23-point cushion on the cut line to start this round is going to give him a nice amount of breathing room, and that should help the regular season champion get through his toughest round of the playoffs. Thankfully for him, this is the first round, so it's going to take a lot for a front-runner to not advance.
William Byron's Round One Outlook
Current Form: Even though William Byron has three wins this season, it's easy to think that this No. 24 team has underperformed. Byron notched just one stage win the entire regular season and kind of checked out a bit during the summer months.
Still, the No. 24 Chevrolet was third-fastest in Green Flag Speed during the regular season and Byron is currently tied for the third-most top-10 finishes in the series this year (with 13).
How Round One Shapes Up: These are three pretty solid race tracks for William Byron. In the five races on the "new" Atlanta, Willy B has won two of them, and he has earned points in seven of the 10 possible Stages.
Byron is the defending winner at Watkins Glen and also won the COTA race this season. At Bristol, Byron had issues earlier this year, but in the three races prior, he finished ninth or better each race and also grabbed points in all six stages.
Chances of Advancing To Round Two: High. Obviously, any of these drivers may have a catastrophic first round and exit the playoffs early, but these tracks set up well for William Byron.
He's a legitimate contender to win at both Atlanta and Watkins Glen, and he has two podium finishes at Bristol over the last four races as well. If he needs to fall back on a points cushion, Byron has a 17-point advantage over the cut line to start this round.
Ryan Blaney's Round One Outlook
Current Form: Blaney's No. 12 Team Penske Ford is about the only Ford that has consistently shown speed this season. He ranks fifth-fastest in Green Flag Speed this year, and the next-highest playoff driver in that category who is also in a Ford is Brad Keselowski, who ranks 12th-fastest.
Blaney's two wins during the regular season are definitely a good boost for this team thanks to the locked-in playoff points that came with those.
How Round One Shapes Up: Ryan Blaney has been one of, if not the best driver at Atlanta since the repave. He's currently on a four-race streak of top-10 finishes there and has posted a top-five finish in seven of the last eight stages at that track.
Blaney is mediocre at Watkins Glen but finished ninth there last season and has ended up inside the top 15 in five of the last six. At Bristol, the No. 12 Ford is always super fast, but Blaney tends to run into issues there; in five of the last six races in "Thunder Valley," the defending series Champion has just one result better than 13th.
Chances of Advancing To Round Two: Good but not great. Ryan Blaney has a 13-point cushion over the cut line to start this round, and that's going to be big for him. He needs to have one of his typical races at Atlanta. If he wrecks out early in that race, the team should inch closer to the panic button, because Watkins Glen isn't a great track for him.
Heading into Bristol needing a good run is never a good position for any driver, especially one that finds issues at that track like it's his job (as Blaney does).
Denny Hamlin's Round One Outlook
Current Form: The No. 11 Toyota has been one of the fastest all season long. Hamlin ranks number one in Green Flag Speed this year and was second-best in Average Running Position during the regular season. He also grabbed the third-most stage wins this season (six) and scored the second-most Stage points (233).
How Round One Shapes Up: We all know that Denny Hamlin is a great superspeedway racer, but he has just one finish better than 14th in the five Next Gen races at Atlanta (and only two top-20s). At Watkins Glen, Hamlin has posted three top-five finishes in his last four starts (including a runner-up result last season) and he has won the last two races at Bristol, leading a combined 305 laps along the way.
Chances of Advancing To Round Two: High, but there's a path we could see Hamlin have an early exit. The penalty that the No. 11 team received a couple of weeks ago only puts Hamlin at 10 points above the cut line to start this round.
If he runs into issues at both Atlanta and Watkins Glen, we could see Denny Hamlin needing to have a great race (or possibly even get a win) at Bristol to make it out of this round. That wouldn't be a good spot to be in at a track that had major tire issues the last time we raced there.
Chase Elliott's Round One Outlook
Current Form: Chase Elliott nearly won the regular season points title but fell just short, coming in third behind Tyler Reddick and Kyle Larson. While that is impressive, Chase did that more so by avoiding problems than running extremely well.
Chase has just seven top-five finishes so far this year (tied for seventh-best among playoff drivers) and only one DNF--the lowest among the 16 postseason participants. That's not to say the No. 9 Chevrolet doesn't have decent speed though; Elliott ranked eighth-fastest in Green Flag Speed during the regular season.
How Round One Shapes Up: Really well. Elliott has won a race on this "new" Atlants track and hasn't finished worse than 15th in his four starts on it. He's an elite racer at Watkins Glen and has finished fourth or better in four of his last five starts there, including two victories. At Bristol, Chase has been very good in the Next Gen era, with three straight finishes of eighth or better there.
Chances of Advancing To Round Two: Very high. With a small cushion over the cut line (nine points) as well as a few really good race tracks coming up, Chase Elliott just needs to avoid disaster in this first round and he should be good to continue in the postseason. His ability to avoid problems in races this year should play to his advantage in a relatively volatile first round of races.
Brad Keselowski's Round One Outlook
Current Form: Keselowski had a strong regular season this year. In those 26 races, he had the fifth-best average finish (14.1) despite ranking just 12th-fastest in Green Flag Speed. He didn't earn any Stage wins, though, and getting points during the stages is going to be key to a strong playoff run.
How Round One Shapes Up: Superspeedway racing is one of Keselowski's strengths, so Atlanta is a good start for him. In the five races on this new surface, Kez has an average finish of 14.2 and he has scored points in six of the 10 stages during that span.
Watkins Glen is likely going to be a struggle for Brad--he has just one finish better than 15th in the last six races there--but the No. 6 Ford should contend at Bristol. Keselowski is a three-time winner there and finished third earlier this season.
Chances of Advancing To Round Two: Slightly above average. Keselowski needs to survive Atlanta and grab some stage points there along with a decent finish. He's going to be mediocre at Watkins Glen, but Keselowski should be a true contender at Bristol.
Obviously, that's not the best position to be in--having to rely on a good Bristol race to advance--but more often than not, Kez has performed well at Bristol, especially in this Next Gen car. His three-point cushion above the cut line to start this round could end up being huge.
Joey Logano's Round One Outlook
Current Form: Will Team Penske do what Team Penske does and turn things up for the playoffs? Logano hasn't been overly fast this season, as the No. 22 Ford ranks 16th-fastest in Green Flag Speed and his average finish of 18.3 ranks third-worst among the 16 playoff drivers.
Statistically, Logano is having one of the worst seasons of his career in 2024, but like I said before, this team seems to always find speed in the postseason.
How Round One Shapes Up: Logano tends to run really well at Atlanta, and he won from the pole there in 2023, but he's finished 17th or worse in three of the last four races there, so nothing is guaranteed.
Road courses have never been a strong suit for Logano, but at Watkins Glen, Joey has 10th- and third-place finishes to his credit there in the Next Gen era. Bristol is where things get rough, though. Logano hasn't had a top-10 finish in "Thunder Valley" since the 2019 season.
Entering the Round of 16, Joey Logano needs to maximize points and avoid the wrecks at Atlanta and bring home some stage points at Watkins Glen because Bristol has been terrible for the #22Team in the NextGen. pic.twitter.com/r0ABlDsfKQ
— NascarMario (@enrique_cucalon) September 2, 2024
Chances of Advancing To Round Two: Slightly below average. Logano's two-point cushion to the cut line to start this round leaves him little room for error. If the No. 22 team runs into issues at Atlanta, Logano could be facing an uphill battle to make it into the second round with two "decent at best" tracks for him in Watkins Glen and Bristol.
We could definitely see an early postseason exit for Joey this year, who likely wouldn't have made the playoffs at all if it wasn't for that miraculous fuel saving at Nashville.
Austin Cindric's Round One Outlook
Current Form: We can't really act like Austin Cindric had that great of a regular season. He posted just three top-10 finishes in the first 26 races, which was the second-least among playoff drivers and ranked in the bottom half of the field in terms of Green Flag Speed as well (23rd-fastest).
In terms of average finish this season, Cindric ranks second-worst among playoff drivers, as his 20.6 average result is only better than Harrison Burton's 25.3 average.
How Round One Shapes Up: The first two races in Round One shaped up quite well for Austin Cindric. He's a great superspeedway racer and has finished 12th or better in the last four races at Atlanta, including a fourth-place finish earlier this year.
On road courses, Cindric is a capable driver, and he has posted 13th- and 16th-place finishes in his two Cup Series starts there. Bristol is the Achilles, though. Cindric's best finish there in three starts has been 20th, and his average driver rating of 36.3 in those races ranks down with the backmarkers.
Chances of Advancing To Round Two: Not likely, but there's a path. Cindric could make things interesting heading into Bristol if some other playoff drivers have issues at Atlanta and/or Watkins Glen, while Cindric just does his thing at those two tracks.
If there's a sleeper I like the most in Round One, it's Austin Cindric. He starts the round with a two-point cushion above the cut line, which is pretty minimal, but could end up being a major factor.
Daniel Suarez's Round One Outlook
Current Form: Trackhouse Racing has taken a step back this season and if Daniel Suarez hadn't pulled off that crazy win at Atlanta, we likely wouldn't have either Trackhouse car in the playoffs this season.
Suarez has been remarkably bad this year, ranking 27th-fastest in Green Flag Speed and 22nd-best in Average Running Position. There were rumors that this No. 99 team was testing after their Atlanta win, so for them, I hope that is true. Otherwise, it could be a very early exit for Suarez from this year's postseason.
How Round One Shapes Up: Actually...decent. Suarez is one of the best on this "new" Atlanta track, as he's finished sixth or better in four of the five races since this reconfiguration, including the win earlier this season.
3-WIDE AT THE LINE! WHAT A FINISH. Repost to congratulate Daniel Suárez on his Atlanta Motor Speedway WIN! pic.twitter.com/RdewRqJiwg
— FOX: NASCAR (@NASCARONFOX) February 26, 2024
Suarez has always had upside at Watkins Glen and has three top-five finishes in six career starts there. At Bristol, though, he struggles, as Suarez hasn't finished better than 18th there since the 2019 season.
Chances of Advancing To Round Two: Better than you probably think, but not high. Suarez's postseason life is likely going to come down to his performance at Bristol. He's been one of the best at Atlanta, so if that continues, it'll be a great start for this Trackhouse team.
The No. 99 Chevrolet has taken a bit of a step back on road courses these last two years, but Suarez is capable to Watkins Glen. If there is chaos at Atlanta, and Suarez somehow improves a notch at Bristol, he could sneak into the next round. He starts the postseason with a one-point advantage on the cutline.
Alex Bowman's Round One Outlook
Current Form: For most of the regular season, Alex Bowman has been able to outperform his actual speed. He is currently tied for the fourth-most top-10 finishes in the Cup Series this year (with 12), but the No. 48 Chevrolet ranked just 15th-fastest in Green Flag Speed during the regular season. Bowman only scored 91 stage points during the first 26 races--which was fifth-least among playoff drivers.
How Round One Shapes Up: This is a tough round of races for Alex Bowman, especially considering he has no cushion over the elimination line to start the playoffs. Bowman has three finishes of 26th or worse in the five "new" Atlanta races.
Even though he has emerged as one of the better road course racers in this Next Gen car, Watkins Glen seems to have Bowman's number, as he's never finished better than 14th there in seven career starts. Historically, Bristol is a mixed bag for Bowman, although he has finished fourth and 13th there in the past two races.
Chances of Advancing To Round Two: Slightly below average. There's a very good chance that Alex Bowman's Championship hopes could come down to him not making any mistakes at Bristol (and having a decently fast car). That's not a good position to be in. Issues at Atlanta and just a typical race at Watkins Glen could have Bowman pretty far out of advancing when the series heads to Bristol.
Chase Briscoe's Round One Outlook
Current Form: Chase Briscoe is on pace to have one of the best seasons of his career, but that isn't saying much. Through 26 races this season, Briscoe has an average finish of 17.4 (his career-best is 17.3 in 2022) with just six top-10 results.
Only three playoff drivers (Harrison Burton, Austin Cindric, and Daniel Suarez) have a lower amount of top-10 finishes this season. In terms of Green Flag Speed this year, Briscoe's No. 14 Ford is middle of the road, ranking 18th-fastest in that category.
How Round One Shapes Up: Briscoe is decent at the three tracks in Round One, but not great. In the five races on the "new" Atlanta surface, he has a best result of 15th, and in three career starts at Watkins Glen, he has one good finish--a ninth in the 2021 race.
Bristol is probably Briscoe's best track in Round One, as he has finished 13th or 14th in three of his four career starts on the concrete there, but that's still not great.
Chances of Advancing To Round Two: Well below average. Briscoe is likely going to have to rely on several other playoff drivers having issues in the first round and him avoiding any problems if he wants to make it to the Round of 12. It's not impossible, but it's certainly not probable.
Briscoe has only scored 56 stage points all season. He's going to need to turn it up a notch and grab some more in the playoffs if he wants to have a chance to point his way into the next round. With just one victory in the regular season, he's tied at the cut line to start these playoffs.
Harrison Burton's Round One Outlook
Current Form: Harrison Burton is easily the worst driver in this playoff field. He ranked 33rd-fastest in Green Flag Speed during the regular season and only got into the postseason due to a very surprising victory at Daytona. In terms of average finish this season, Burton is the worst among all full-time drivers, with an average result of 25.7 over the first 26 races.
How Round One Shapes Up: Not good. Burton is decent at Atlanta--he has finishes of 11th and 10th there over the last four races--but he's atrocious at road courses and has never finished better than 28th at Watkins Glen.
At Bristol, Burton survived over a third of the field having issues in 2022 to finish 16th, but in the two races there since then, he's walked away with 28th- and 32nd-place results.
Chances of Advancing To Round Two: Almost zero. Can lightning strike twice and the No. 21 Ford get another superspeedway victory at Atlanta? That's pretty much the only way Harrison Burton advances out of this round. If that doesn't happen, you can pretty much write Harrison Burton off already.
Ty Gibbs's Round One Outlook
Current Form: Ty Gibbs has shown strong potential all season long but has had trouble getting the finishes he deserves. The No. 54 Toyota ranked 10th-fastest in Green Flag Speed during the regular season and fifth-best in Average Running Position. This Joe Gibbs Racing car has the potential to run up front every week. Gibbs just needs some more experience and to get a little more steady on race days.
How Round One Shapes Up: These three races actually set up well for Ty Gibbs. At Atlanta, he has posted top-10 finishes in two of his three career Cup Series starts, and the Joe Gibbs Racing driver has emerged as a top-tier road course racer.
He finished fifth at Watkins Glen last season. At Bristol, Gibbs won both stages earlier this year before ultimately finishing ninth, and he came home fifth in the concrete race last season.
Chances of Advancing To Round Two: Good. Obviously, being on the outside looking in to start this round isn't a great position (Gibbs starts one point below the cut line), but he just needs to survive at Atlanta and then could legitimately challenge for the win at both Watkins Glen and Bristol. The No. 54 team has to feel confident in advancing out of this round.
Martin Truex Jr's Round One Outlook
Current Form: For Truex's sake, I hope he's gotten his bad luck out of the way early. This No. 19 team started the season with seven top-10 finishes in the first 12 races with no result worse than 18th over that span.
In the 14 races since then, Truex has posted 10 finishes outside of the top 20 entirely and is currently on a five-race streak of results of 24th or worse. It'd be hard to find someone with less momentum than MTJ right now.
How Round One Shapes Up: This isn't a bad round for Truex at all. He's gotten points in five of the last six stages at Atlanta and walked away with a 12th-place finish there earlier this season. At Watkins Glen, he has finished seventh or better in six of the last seven races there, including a win back in 2017. At Bristol, Truex ran runner-up to teammate Denny Hamlin earlier this year.
Chances of Advancing To Round Two: It's hard to be confident, but chances are good. Truex can't keep running into all of this bad luck week after week, right?
Martin Truex Jr. is happy to have a reset after a frustrating several weeks leading into the playoffs. And is he trying to soak it in a little bit considering it is his last full-time season? pic.twitter.com/0n6L7KHjTy
— Bob Pockrass (@bobpockrass) September 7, 2024
This No. 19 Toyota ranks sixth-fastest in Green Flag Speed this year despite all of the bad results in the second half of the regular season. Just a few months ago, we were talking about Truex as a Championship contender. If he can get out of this first round, he's still a threat.
Jordan's Round of 16 Elimination Predictions
This first round of the playoffs has the potential to be electric. We have two races in Atlanta and Bristol that could end up being wildly unpredictable, and only a handful of this year's playoff drivers are top-notch at Watkins Glen.
As much of a speed gap there is among many of the drivers in the postseason this year, this round could end up seeing some of the "heavy hitters" go home early. Not to mention, if we have tire issues at Bristol yet again, anything can happen.
This round is sure to be entertaining, and as has been the case for many races this season, we should expect the unexpected.
Jordan's first four out: Harrison Burton, Daniel Suarez, Chase Briscoe, and Joey Logano
Potential "big name" drivers with a surprise early exit: Ryan Blaney
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