MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (5/11/2025)

Thunder Dan's best MLB player prop bets for today (5/11/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props.

I think there were around 1,000 home runs hit yesterday, and somehow none of them were from the six players I had selected for yesterday. Variance strikes again! It's a good reminder that HR props are not all that easy to hit, but it's certainly not going to stop us from trying!

On this page, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Sunday, May 11, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings or FanDuel Sportsbooks and are subject to change throughout the day. I like to target guys with higher odds in these articles, so keep that in mind when reading!

Remember to shop around at other sportsbooks to find the best odds, which gives you more value on your bets. It's also essential to only risk a small portion of your bankroll on home run props since they're tough to win. Good luck today and Happy Mother's Day!

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MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (5/11/2025)

Here are the hitters I'll cover for Sunday, May 11:

• CJ Abrams, Washington Nationals
• Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay Rays
• Jeremy Pena, Houston Astros
• Jake Cronenworth, San Diego Padres
• Bryce Harper, Philadelphia Phillies

CJ Abrams OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+480 FanDuel Sportsbook)

It was pretty clear based on the results from the last several days that the hitting conditions are improving around the country and that finding those good weather spots is going to be a key piece in finding home runs. It's going to be 80 degrees and clear skies in Washington today for this Mother's Day clash between the Cardinals and Nationals.

And I have to pick on a guy like Miles Mikolas, who has a major fly-ball tendency and a 91% Z-Contact%. Somehow, Mikolas has allowed just one home run this season, but his splits are wide with lefties slashing .313/.378/.403 against him.

It's always tough deciding between Abrams, James Wood, and Nathaniel Lowe when I want a Nats homer, but I'm going to roll with Abrams today as he makes the most contact (only 19% K%) and trails only Wood in ISO vs. RHP at .242.

For the BvP crowd, Abrams is 3-10 lifetime against Mikolas with a home run.

Junior Caminero OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+390 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Caminero has not shown traditional splits this season, though he did go deep off lefty Jesus Luzardo to the opposite field for this home run a few days ago.

Junior Caminero - Tampa Bay Rays (7)
pic.twitter.com/KnU8QuxrCQ

— MLB HR Videos (@MLBHRVideos) May 8, 2025

Caminero is hitting much better off RHP this season, and five of his seven home runs have come against righties. That lines up well here with his opponent, Chad Patrick, who has allowed four home runs this season, all of them to RHH. Patrick is another extreme fly-ball pitcher (28%), and that could be trouble today in Tampa, as the wind is blowing out to left field, and it's going to be warm and very humid again.

We missed on Jonathan Aranda yesterday, but there were home runs hit in that game, just by the wrong team, as it was Jackson Chourio and Joey Ortiz who went deep for Milwaukee.

Jeremy Pena OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+600 FanDuel Sportsbook)

The Astros and Reds combined for 22 runs in yesterday's game, and today could be another high-scoring affair as the Reds send rookie Chase Petty out to make his second start against Ronel Blanco for Houston.

Petty was thoroughly bashed in his debut, allowing nine earned runs without making it through three innings. He allowed two home runs, both to right-handed hitters, before yielding to the bullpen.

Now, Petty is a talented young pitcher with some strikeout potential, but I think we can still attack him for home runs, especially with some great odds here on most of the Houston hitters. The season-long stats don't look good for Houston, but Pena is a guy with some pop out of the leadoff spot. He's been swinging a hot bat lately and has five home runs on the season. These odds are fantastic, and don't forget that Houston has a short porch in left field that plays extremely well to right-handed power.

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Jake Cronenworth OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+500 DraftKings Sportsbook)

After missing a big chunk of time in April and early May, Cronenworth is back in the lineup and it didn't take him long to start hitting against these Rockies pitchers this weekend. He homered in yesterday's game and has three hits already in his first seven at-bats since coming off the IL.

While I have said it before, I'll say it again. BvP is not a stat I use often, but it's hard to ignore the track record here for Cronenworth against German Marquez. "Jake the Rake" is hitting .320 against Marquez over 25 lifetime at-bats with three home runs. I'll take that matchup for these odds any day! And even if Marquez doesn't last long, this Colorado bullpen should be out of gas after the Padres scored 21 runs last night.

Bryce Harper OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+450 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Yesterday, I was on Max Kepler in a matchup against Tanner Bibee in this series, but Bibee pitched well,l and Kepler only managed a double instead of going yard. You know who went yard? Bryce Harper did as he crushed one off a lefty from the bullpen, reminding us of his raw power and ability to hit bombs off pitchers of any handedness.

Bryce Harper pads the @Phillies lead with a 421-foot blast! pic.twitter.com/aBR4OBdYwm

— MLB (@MLB) May 11, 2025

I know Luis L Ortiz has some solid stuff and can pitch well at times, but he is still walking a lot of players and laboring through starts often. He's struggled with lefties throughout his career, and this year, three of the five bombs that he has surrendered have been to southpaws.

Again, Kyle Schwarber is the Philly with the best power numbers against righties, but his odds are much shorter. If we head over to FanDuel, we can get Harper at +450 to hit another bomb today! This game is the nightcap, so the temperature will have cooled off a bit, but it's still going to be very humid in Cleveland, and Harper has the kind of power that we probably don't need to worry as much about the weather helping the ball leave the yard. He can do that just with his incredibly powerful swing.

Conclusion

I am well aware of Salvador Perez's insane BvP numbers against Lucas Giolito, but Sal isn't hitting much right now, and the Royals are at home, where their park tends to play much more favorably for pitchers. The BvP crowd can chase that one!

While yesterday’s power surge across MLB left our picks just short, the beauty—and challenge—of home run props lies in their high-risk, high-reward nature. Staying disciplined, targeting favorable matchups, and leveraging weather and pitcher splits remain key when betting these volatile markets.

Whether it's a hot bat like Bryce Harper or a juicy matchup like Jake Cronenworth vs. German Marquez, every slate offers opportunities to find value if you’re willing to dig deep. Be sure to shop around for the best odds and always wager responsibly. We’ll be back tomorrow hunting more home run props—because variance may slow us down, but it won’t stop us from swinging for the fences.

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