X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (5/11/2025)

Bryce Harper - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Thunder Dan's best MLB player prop bets for today (5/11/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props.

I think there were around 1,000 home runs hit yesterday, and somehow none of them were from the six players I had selected for yesterday. Variance strikes again! It's a good reminder that HR props are not all that easy to hit, but it's certainly not going to stop us from trying!

On this page, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on SundayMay 112025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings or FanDuel Sportsbooks and are subject to change throughout the day. I like to target guys with higher odds in these articles, so keep that in mind when reading!

Remember to shop around at other sportsbooks to find the best odds, which gives you more value on your bets. It's also essential to only risk a small portion of your bankroll on home run props since they're tough to win. Good luck today and Happy Mother's Day!

Be sure to check all of our dynasty fantasy football resources for 2025:

 

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (5/11/2025)

Here are the hitters I'll cover for Sunday, May 11:

CJ Abrams OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+480 FanDuel Sportsbook)

It was pretty clear based on the results from the last several days that the hitting conditions are improving around the country and that finding those good weather spots is going to be a key piece in finding home runs. It's going to be 80 degrees and clear skies in Washington today for this Mother's Day clash between the Cardinals and Nationals.

And I have to pick on a guy like Miles Mikolas, who has a major fly-ball tendency and a 91% Z-Contact%. Somehow, Mikolas has allowed just one home run this season, but his splits are wide with lefties slashing .313/.378/.403 against him.

It's always tough deciding between Abrams, James Wood, and Nathaniel Lowe when I want a Nats homer, but I'm going to roll with Abrams today as he makes the most contact (only 19% K%) and trails only Wood in ISO vs. RHP at .242.

For the BvP crowd, Abrams is 3-10 lifetime against Mikolas with a home run.

Junior Caminero OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+390 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Caminero has not shown traditional splits this season, though he did go deep off lefty Jesus Luzardo to the opposite field for this home run a few days ago.

Caminero is hitting much better off RHP this season, and five of his seven home runs have come against righties. That lines up well here with his opponent, Chad Patrick, who has allowed four home runs this season, all of them to RHH. Patrick is another extreme fly-ball pitcher (28%), and that could be trouble today in Tampa, as the wind is blowing out to left field, and it's going to be warm and very humid again.

We missed on Jonathan Aranda yesterday, but there were home runs hit in that game, just by the wrong team, as it was Jackson Chourio and Joey Ortiz who went deep for Milwaukee.

Jeremy Pena OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+600 FanDuel Sportsbook)

The Astros and Reds combined for 22 runs in yesterday's game, and today could be another high-scoring affair as the Reds send rookie Chase Petty out to make his second start against Ronel Blanco for Houston.

Petty was thoroughly bashed in his debut, allowing nine earned runs without making it through three innings. He allowed two home runs, both to right-handed hitters, before yielding to the bullpen.

Now, Petty is a talented young pitcher with some strikeout potential, but I think we can still attack him for home runs, especially with some great odds here on most of the Houston hitters. The season-long stats don't look good for Houston, but Pena is a guy with some pop out of the leadoff spot. He's been swinging a hot bat lately and has five home runs on the season. These odds are fantastic, and don't forget that Houston has a short porch in left field that plays extremely well to right-handed power.

 

Sports Betting Promo Offers

Featured Promo: Get any Betting Premium Pass for 50% off using code SUMMER. Win more with exclusive betting picks from proven winners across 9 sports! Find optimal bets with our Betting Picks Tool and Bet Weighting Tool and follow along in our VIP chat rooms! Go Premium, Win More!

 

Jake Cronenworth OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+500 DraftKings Sportsbook)

After missing a big chunk of time in April and early May, Cronenworth is back in the lineup and it didn't take him long to start hitting against these Rockies pitchers this weekend. He homered in yesterday's game and has three hits already in his first seven at-bats since coming off the IL.

While I have said it before, I'll say it again. BvP is not a stat I use often, but it's hard to ignore the track record here for Cronenworth against German Marquez. "Jake the Rake" is hitting .320 against Marquez over 25 lifetime at-bats with three home runs. I'll take that matchup for these odds any day! And even if Marquez doesn't last long, this Colorado bullpen should be out of gas after the Padres scored 21 runs last night.

Bryce Harper OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+450 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Yesterday, I was on Max Kepler in a matchup against Tanner Bibee in this series, but Bibee pitched well,l and Kepler only managed a double instead of going yard. You know who went yard? Bryce Harper did as he crushed one off a lefty from the bullpen, reminding us of his raw power and ability to hit bombs off pitchers of any handedness.

I know Luis L Ortiz has some solid stuff and can pitch well at times, but he is still walking a lot of players and laboring through starts often. He's struggled with lefties throughout his career, and this year, three of the five bombs that he has surrendered have been to southpaws.

Again, Kyle Schwarber is the Philly with the best power numbers against righties, but his odds are much shorter. If we head over to FanDuel, we can get Harper at +450 to hit another bomb today! This game is the nightcap, so the temperature will have cooled off a bit, but it's still going to be very humid in Cleveland, and Harper has the kind of power that we probably don't need to worry as much about the weather helping the ball leave the yard. He can do that just with his incredibly powerful swing.

Conclusion

I am well aware of Salvador Perez's insane BvP numbers against Lucas Giolito, but Sal isn't hitting much right now, and the Royals are at home, where their park tends to play much more favorably for pitchers. The BvP crowd can chase that one!

While yesterday’s power surge across MLB left our picks just short, the beauty—and challenge—of home run props lies in their high-risk, high-reward nature. Staying disciplined, targeting favorable matchups, and leveraging weather and pitcher splits remain key when betting these volatile markets.

Whether it's a hot bat like Bryce Harper or a juicy matchup like Jake Cronenworth vs. German Marquez, every slate offers opportunities to find value if you’re willing to dig deep. Be sure to shop around for the best odds and always wager responsibly. We’ll be back tomorrow hunting more home run props—because variance may slow us down, but it won’t stop us from swinging for the fences.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Viktor Hovland

a Strong Play at Travelers Championship
Deebo Samuel Sr.

Dan Quinn Says Deebo Samuel Sr. Still Has Plenty of Speed
Sam Burns

' Near Miss at Oakmont May Not Mean Big Things at Travelers
Jalen Coker

Not a Roster Lock?
Ludvig Aberg

Looks to Rebound at Travelers Championship
Ryan Fitzgerald

Favored to Win Panthers Kicking Job?
Efton Chism III

Mixing in with First-Team Offense
Jurickson Profar

Starting Rehab Assignment on Tuesday
Derion Kendrick

Rams Bring Back Derion Kendrick
Jalin Hyatt

Leaves Tuesday's Practice Early with Leg Injury
Will Vest

Likely to Avoid Injured List
Travis Kelce

Expected to Attend Mandatory Minicamp
Travis Hunter

Jaguars Think Travis Hunter Can Play Both Ways in Full Games
Rafael Devers

Expected to Make Giants Debut on Tuesday
Aaron Rodgers

a Perfect Fit for Steelers?
Sam Howell

Could be Front-Runner for No. 2 QB Job
J.J. McCarthy

has Shown Plenty of Arm Strength
Chet Holmgren

Has Tough Shooting Night in Game 5 Against Pacers
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Outstanding at Both Ends Monday
Jalen Williams

Erupts for 40 Points in Game 5 Win
Pascal Siakam

Has Best Game of Finals Monday
Tyrese Haliburton

Determined to Battle Through Calf Injury
LeBron James

Progressing Well From Knee Injury
Lucas Giolito

Strikes Out Season-High 10 in Monday's Win
Logan Gilbert

Fans 10 in Return on Monday
Pittsburgh Steelers

Steelers, DeShon Elliott Agree to Two-Year Extension
Ryan Pepiot

Strikes Out 11 in Win
Hunter Goodman

Homers Twice, Drives in Three
Stephen Curry

"Not Even Close" to Retirement
Jonathan Kuminga

Linked to Bulls, Heat
Kevin Durant

Has "No Desire" to be Traded to Minnesota
Isaac Paredes

Returns as DH on Monday
New York Giants

Mike Kafka Expected to Reclaim Play-Calling Duties
Jon Runyan

Limited During Minicamp
Saquon Barkley

Feels Great Physically
Justin Simmons

Panthers Have Talked With Justin Simmons
Jordan Addison

Trial Date Set for July 15
New York Jets

Jets Sign Kingsley Jonathan, Marquis Hayes
Jarace Walker

Remains Sidelined for Game 5
Justin Verlander

Returning to the Rotation on Wednesday
Tony Finau

Finishes Tied For 38th at U.S. Open
Bud Cauley

Misses The Cut at U.S. Open
Cameron Young

Finishes Tied For Fourth at U.S. Open
J.J. Spaun

Wins U.S. Open
Xander Schauffele

Finishes Tied For 12th at U.S. Open
Robert MacIntyre

Finishes Second at U.S. Open
Si Woo Kim

Finishes Tied For 42nd at U.S. Open
Vershon Lee

Vikings Ink Undrafted Offensive Lineman Vershon Lee
Luke Clanton

Misses The Cut at RBC Canadian Open
San Francisco 49ers

C.J. West Signs Rookie Deal with San Fran
Jaylen Warren

Training to Handle Larger Workload
Giancarlo Stanton

to Make Season Debut on Monday
Kamaru Usman

Gets Back In The Win Column
Joaquin Buckley

Winning Streak Comes To An End
Miranda Maverick

Drops Decision At UFC Atlanta
Rose Namajunas

Wins Decision At UFC Atlanta
Andre Petroski

Suffers Unanimous-Decision Loss
Edmen Shahbazyan

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Raoni Barcelos

Wins Third Fight In A Row
Chase Elliott

Ends Mexico City with A Great Finish of Third
Christopher Bell

has A Strong Runner-Up Performance At Mexico City
Chase Briscoe

Wild Day Ends with A Top-10 Finish
Michael McDowell

Leaves Mexico City with A Top-Five Finish
Cody Garbrandt

Loses Back-To-Back Fights
Cody Brundage

Defeated After Accidental Clash Of Heads
Cody Brundage

Mansur Abdul-Malik Defeats Cody Brundage By Technical Decision
Oumar Sy

Suffers His First Loss
Alonzo Menifield

Scores Upset Win
Alex Bowman

Delivers Bravura Performance After Michigan Injury
Tyler Reddick

Inexplicably Mediocre on his Once-Best Track Type
John Hunter Nemechek

Canny Strategy Gives John Hunter Nemechek Best Career Road-Course Finish
Cole Custer

Earns Best Finish Since Cup-Series Comeback at Mexico City
Grant Holmes

Punches Out 15 in Loss
Elly De La Cruz

Goes Yard in Fourth Straight Game
Will Vest

Dealing With Finger Injury
Jackson Merrill

Placed on Seven-Day Concussion Injured List
Shohei Ohtani

Will Be Dodgers' Starting Pitcher Monday
Roki Sasaki

Shut Down From Throwing
Jordan Hicks

Headed to Boston
Kyle Harrison

Traded to Red Sox
Brady House

Nationals Promoting Brady House to Major Leagues
Rafael Devers

Traded to San Francisco
Logan Gilbert

to Start on Monday
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

on the Move to Memphis
Cole Anthony

Dealt to the Grizzlies
Desmond Bane

Traded to Orlando
Steven Adams

Rockets Agree to Three-Year Contract Extension
Ty Dillon

Is a Respectable Cap Flexiblity-Focused DFS Option For Mexico City
Corey Perry

Produces 10th Postseason Goal
Connor McDavid

Scores First Finals Goal
John Hunter Nemechek

Is John Hunter Nemechek Worth Rostering In Mexico City DFS Lineups?
Sam Bennett

Nets Another Road Goal in Game 5 Win
Eetu Luostarinen

Earns Two Points Saturday
Brad Marchand

Pots Two Goals in Game 5 Victory
Sergei Bobrovsky

Ties NHL Record with 10th Road Win
Ross Chastain

Trackhouse Racing's Mexico Focus Makes Ross Chastain a Leading Contender for the Win
Kyle Busch

One of Two Past Mexico City Winners in the Field
Ryan Preece

Earns Surprising Front-Row Start
Austin Cindric

Not as Strong of a Road Racer as People Think
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Stronger on Infield Road Courses Than Purpose-Built Ones
Joey Logano

Seemingly Alternating Between Good and Mediocre Races
Brad Keselowski

One of the Few Drivers with Mexico City Experience
Denny Hamlin

Ryan Truex Makes First Cup Series Start Since 2014
Erik Jones

Mexico City Will Likely be a Struggle for Erik Jones
Noah Gragson

Front Row Motorsports' Speed May Make Noah Gragson a Decent DFS Option
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Road Courses Are Ricky Stenhouse Jr.'s Worst Track Type
Evander Kane

Drops to Fourth Line Saturday
Kasperi Kapanen

Won't Play on Saturday
Calvin Pickard

Starts Game 5 for Oilers
Tyrese Haliburton

Struggles in Friday's Loss to OKC
Chet Holmgren

Dominates the Glass in Game 4
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Leads the Way in Game 4
Jalen Williams

Has a Quality Showing on Friday Night
Russell Westbrook

to Decline Player Option
Kevin Durant

Trade Could Happen in the "Next Few Days"
Joaquin Buckley

Set For Main Event
Kamaru Usman

An Underdog At UFC Atlanta
Miranda Maverick

Set For Co-Main Event
Rose Namajunas

Looks To Bounce Back
Andre Petroski

Looks To Extend His Win Streak To Four
Edmen Shahbazyan

A Favorite At UFC Atlanta
Raoni Barcelos

Set To Take On Former Champion
Cody Garbrandt

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Mansur Abdul-Malik

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Connor Hellebuyck

Wins Vezina And Hart Trophies
Aleksander Barkov

Records Two Power-Play Assists Thursday
Sam Reinhart

Collects Three Points in Thursday's Loss
Matthew Tkachuk

Notches Three Points in Losing Effort
Calvin Pickard

Joins Exclusive List with Thursday's Win
Mattias Ekholm

Logs Two Assists in Comeback Victory
Leon Draisaitl

Delivers Victory in Overtime Thursday
Myles Turner

Playing Through Illness
Anze Kopitar

Wins Third Lady Byng Trophy
Sergei Bobrovsky

Heading Out for Win No. 15
John Klingberg

Won't Play in Game 4 Against Panthers
Viktor Arvidsson

Sits Out Game 4 Against Panthers
Stuart Skinner

Remains in Oilers Crease Thursday
Matt McCarty

Comes Off Season-Best Showing at RBC Canadian Open
Justin Thomas

Desperate to Continue Good 2025 Season
Jon Rahm

Seeks Revenge at U.S. Open
Tom Kim

Aiming for Improvement in U.S. Open
PGA

Sungjae Im Expects Solid Performance at Oakmont
Brian Harman

Aims to Rebound From the Memorial
Tony Finau

has Been Up and Down at U.S. Open
Patrick Cantlay

Hoping This is the Year at Oakmont
Akshay Bhatia

Improving in Time for U.S. Open