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The 2021 MLB is underway and there is a ton of excitement surrounding it! It was a long offseason, but we have finally reached the beginning of the MLB season. We will be here week in and week out offering up advice for some of the best prop picks in the industry with Monkey Knife Fight.
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A couple of games we can look at today include the Pirates at Tigers, Cardinals at Nationals, and Giants at Phillies.
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Pirates @ Tigers
More or Less Contest
Tyler Anderson more than 4.5 strikeouts and Michael Fulmer more than 3.5 strikeouts
Tyler Anderson has pitched relatively decent to begin the season and has gone over this total in two games against the Chicago Cubs. He did, however, fail to go over this total against the San Diego Padres, but the Padres have only posted a strikeout rate of 23.5% vs. left-handed pitching over the previous 10 days. Enter the Tigers who are posting a K rate of 29.3% vs. lefties over the previous 10 days. This ranks them fourth-worst in the league over that span. The Tigers are also posting a wRC+ mark of just 29, which is ranked worst in the league over the previous 10 days and makes it less likely that Anderson will run into trouble early.
Michael Fulmer has started the season strong as he now has 12 strikeouts across his first 12 innings pitched. He recently struck out five Cleveland Indians and four Minnesota Twins across a combined seven innings pitched. The strikeouts against the Twins are considerably impressive as they currently boast the best K rate against right-handers over the previous 10 days with a mark of just 17.6%. He will now be facing the Pirates who have a rate of 24% over that same span. While 24% is not incredibly high, it should be high enough for Fulmer to be able to pull down four strikeouts and get over the threshold.
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Cardinals @ Nationals
More or Less Contest
Patrick Corbin less than 5.5 strikeouts and Adam Wainwright more than 4.5 strikeouts
Patrick Corbin has had an abysmal start to 2021 as he is 0-2 with a 21.32 ERA with only six strikeouts across 6 1/3 innings pitched. In his most recent start, he was absolutely obliterated by the Arizona Diamondbacks for nine earned runs in just two innings. Now, he gets the St. Louis Cardinals who have been strong against left-handed pitching over the previous 10 days as they are posting a K rate of just 13.2%, which is ranked second-best in baseball over that span. They are also posting a ridiculous 201 wRC+ mark over that same span, which ranks as the best in baseball. This is a tough spot for Corbin.
Adam Wainwright just faced these Nationals and managed to strike out seven of them across five innings pitched. That makes this 4.5 prop a tad odd, but we will go with the more than here as it is a full 2.5 strikeouts less than he achieved in his last start. Wainwright also managed to get six Brewers the start before the Nationals game. Washington is posting a 20.8% K rate vs. righties over the previous 10 days, which is ranked in the middle of the pack but are also only posting a 6.8% walk rate and a wRC+ mark of just 94. These latter stats lead me to believe Wainwright should be able to last long enough to get to the five strikeout threshold.
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Giants @ Phillies
More or Less Contest
Zack Wheeler more than 6.5 strikeouts and Logan Webb more than 4.5 strikeouts
Zack Wheeler also has a more than 17.5 pitching outs prop that I like in this contest tonight if you want to play that as well. He gets a solid matchup vs. the Giants who are striking out at a clip of 27.7% vs. right-handers over the last 10 days, which ranks sixth-worst in the league over that span. He has 20 strikeouts through his first 18 innings pitched, including a 10 strikeout game against the Atlanta Braves and a six strikeout game against the Mets. The Mets game is worth noting as they are not striking out much vs. right-handers, so the fact he was able to sit down six of them is a solid barometer for what he can do vs. these Giants. The Giants are also only walking at a clip of 8.3% and posting an 85 wRC+ mark vs. righties over the previous 10 days, which is why I like him over 17.5 pitching outs.
Logan Webb is coming off the Covid-19 list tonight after experiencing side effects from his second vaccine. He will get a Phillies lineup that is striking out at a rate of 26.8% vs. right-handers over the previous 10 days, which ranks 10th-worst over that span. He has managed to strike out over this total in both of his two starts this season. As long as he feels well enough to take the mound, he should be able to get five Phillies and go over the total.
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