RADIO
Justin Carter outlines the sixth seed Houston Cougars before predicting their run in the West Region of the upcoming NCAA Tournament.
The NCAA Tournament is finally here, and RotoBaller is also here to give you as much information as we can to help you fill out your brackets. Brackets are a big deal, and you, dear reader, could be the first person to ever fill out a perfect one, right?
In this piece, I'm going to preview a possible sleeper team, the Houston Cougars. I spent four years at the University of Houston, a time span that featured the Cougars only tournament appearance since 1992, when UH lost in the first round in 2010. That team was led by senior Aubrey Coleman, and it was a team I liked a lot--loved, even--but it didn't feel like a team that could make the noise that this one can.
Let's take a deep dive on these Cougars.
Editor's Note: Be sure to check out the rest of our NCAA tournament columns and advice, including a guide to fill out your bracket, Tournament winners/picks, sleepers, busts and breakdowns of each region.
The 2017-2018 Facts
Win/Loss Record: 26-7, 14-4 in AAC
Leading Scorer: Rob Gray (18.5)
Leading Rebounder: Devin Davis (6.1)
Leading Assister: Rob Gray (4.5)
Houston ranks in the top 50 in three point percentage (38.7 percent, 35th in the nation) and total rebounds (32nd in the nation). Defensively, they hold opponents to 64.9 points per game.
Losses: Drexel (this is a bad loss), LSU, Wichita State, Tulane, Memphis, and twice to Cincinnati, including a loss in the AAC title game.
Wins: Cincinnati, Wichita State (twice), and wins over the following major conference teams: Wake Forest, Arkansas, and Providence.
Rob Gray
I am devoting an entire section to Rob Gray because ROB GRAY. The senior guard -- who leads the team in scoring and assists -- sparked Houston's run through the American Tournament, including a huge game in the win over Wichita State in which he scored 33 points. Gray can go cold at times, and he can hold the ball too long, but he can also do things like what you see in the highlights from the Wichita State game, especially what happens near the end of the video:
With less than a minute to go, Gray came up with a big steal and assist to keep Houston's hopes of winning alive. There's a craftiness to his play that was on display at the end of that game. He's a determined player who just seems to always be ready to make a play. I know there's something of a cop out in that statement, but it's what rings the most true when I watch Gray play -- he's ready to make plays. And even if he has issues like he did in the Cincinnati game, when he was part of a long Cougars cold spell that didn't let them take advantage of Cincinnati's own cold spell, at his best he's able to make big shots and get his team the win.
Okay, do I need some stats here? Gray's able to do a bit of everything for Houston. He leads the team in points and assists per game and is fourth in rebounds per game. He's second on the team in steals per game. He can be inefficient at times, but he shoots over 50% from inside the three point line.
The Other Players
I can't just talk about Gray, so let's talk about Corey Davis Jr. and Devin Davis. While Gray is actually shooting just 34% from deep, Davis Jr. is making 44% of his threes on seven attempts per game. His three point percentage ranks 19th in the country. Only one player -- Nevada's Kendall Stephens -- shoots better than Davis Jr. on that many attempts. While the ball runs through Gray, Davis Jr.'s shooting ability gives Houston a chance against anyone. He's one of the best three point shooters in the country, which is something you really want to have in March.
Devin Davis can't stretch the floor, but he shoots 51% on two point shots. While that's not elite production, he's able to do some good work inside.
Armoni Brooks is another strong shooter -- he makes 42% of his threes on 5.9 attempts. Again, making threes can help you win in March.
Galen Robinson Jr. exists and leads the team in steals. He's #ENERGY. He can disrupt opponents. While it would be nice if he also had an outside shot, he makes up for it with hustle, defense, and passing.
Tournament Chances
I like Houston as a Sweet 16 pick. I'm not sure I love them past there, but I think they have winnable situations in the first two rounds of the West Region.
Round 1
Houston (6) vs. San Diego State (11)
Houston ranks 17th in ESPN's BPI. San Diego State ranks 51st. The Aztecs are a decent defensive team, but they lack the offensive firepower to keep up if Houston is making their shots. SDSU ranks just 233rd in three point percentage and is outside the top 100 in overall field goal percentage. They're led by Malik Pope and Devin Watson. Houston might be one of the safer six seeds to pick this year. I don't like the Aztecs at all as an upset pick.
Round 2
If Michigan beats Montana, we get a 3/6 game that is closer than you might think. Michigan is just three spots ahead of Houston in BPI. Michigan doesn't turn the ball over much, and they hold opponents to the eighth fewest points in Division One. They don't set the world on fire themselves offensively, though, and rank 157th in points per game.
Michigan is the favorite in this matchup and should be, but they'll need to slow down Houston's three point shooting. Opponents shoot 33.8% against them from deep, which suggests they have the ability to give Houston's shooters trouble.
Overall, Houston could be a team that makes a little bit of a run due to their top notch three point shooting. The Cougars have two deadly outside threats and Rob Gray running the offense. This might not be Phi Slamma Jamma, but it's the best Cougar team I can remember watching. They've beaten the other good teams in the American and maybe, maybe they'll get a shot to beat the Michigan Wolverines. Past that, they would be hoping to avoid North Carolina.
