Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!


Receive free daily analysis


Already have an account? Log In


Forgot Password


Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Pickups & Streamers
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Manny Machado to Padres - Fantasy Impact

After months of waiting, one big fish has landed in an unexpected place. Infielder Manny Machado inked a ten-year, $300 million deal with the San Diego Padres, the largest deal ever given in free agency. Machado had experience in the NL West in his 66 games with the Dodgers last season (posting an .825 OPS), but now is slated to play at least five seasons for the youthful Friars. Machado may have only had a .182/.208/.182 slash line in last year's World Series loss against the Red Sox, but will instantly be a high-impact player in San Diego

In a lot of ways, 2018 was Machado's best offensive season, posting a sparkling .297/.367/.538 slash line while matching a career-best with 37 home runs and topping 100 RBI for the first time (107). He had double-digit steals for the second time in his career (stealing 14-of-16 bases) and had career bests in each of his slash line categories. While it is easy to say that Machado showed up in a walk season, remember that he now has four straight 30-home run seasons and has averaged 72 extra-base hits per season since 2015.

A move to San Diego may not be as nice as cozy hitter's parks in Baltimore and Los Angeles, but can Machado still be a top-20 player in San Diego?

Editor's Note: Our incredible team of writers received five total writing awards and 13 award nominations by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association, tops in the industry! Congrats to all the award winners and nominees including Best MLB Series, NFL Series, NBA Writer, PGA Writer and Player Notes writer of the year. Be sure to follow their analysis, rankings and advice all year long, and win big with RotoBaller! Read More!


How Much Will The Move To San Diego Affect Machado?

Machado's first half with the Orioles in 2018 was the best offensive output that he had provided in his career, posting a .315/.387/.575 slash line and hitting 24 home runs in 96 games. He walked 45 times, struck out 51 and even added in eight stolen bases in nine attempts. He was on his way to being a top-10, or even top-five, player last season and a trade to the Dodgers only strengthened his profile.

His play dipped a bit when he moved out west although a .273/.338/.487 slash line was still good.  Most notably, he walked 25 times and struck out 53 times in 66 games, not showing the plate discipline that he displayed in Baltimore (to be fair though, his .472 K/BB ratio in LA was still better than his career .442 mark). You could easily say that the pressure of a pennant race (and a life-altering payday) was getting to Machado, but how will the pressure of being the savior of baseball in San Diego affect him then?

Diving into advanced statistics, Machado had career-bests in basically every category in 2018. His exit velocity was at 91.6, his barrel% was at 11.3%, his hard hit ball rate was top-10 in the league at 48.2%, his K% was at a career-low of 14.7%, and his BB% was at a career-best of 9.9%. There was a bit of a dip in Machado's max exit velocity, from 116.3 in 2017 to 114.8 in 2018, but that did not stop Machado from registering 60 barrels last season (good for 6th in baseball) and his 40% GB rate was also below his 41.4% career average.

His swing profile was not great, as his zone contact rate (85.8%) was below his career average (86.7%), but his 2018 performance when he did hit the ball stood out. Other than his struggles in the World Series, there was basically no other way that Machado could have proved his worth more so than his 2018 performance. Furthermore, 2018 marked the fifth time that Machado registered at least 690 plate appearances; while some may say that signing a 26-year-old with that much mileage is a risky proposal, fantasy owners need to love that Machado is a daily lock in their lineup.

When looking at park factors, there are a lot of things to consider. The brilliant Eno Sarris of The Athletic has one way of looking at it (and, honestly, it is now a favorite of mine); HR/High Drive ratio. For those who cannot conceptualize a high drive, it is basically a hard hit ball in the air; HR/HD basically looks at the ratio of how many hard hit balls in the air turn into home runs.

Where did Machado's two 2018 teams rank in HR/HD? That would be first (LA) and second (BAL). With the notion that San Diego is a pitcher's park, now is probably the time that fantasy owners will drop Machado five or more spots on their draft board. However, San Diego was actually above average in HR/HD ratio in last season (1.034 that ranked 13th in baseball) and was actually a better park to hit in than supposed "hitter's parks" like Toronto or Houston (Minute Maid Park was actually a bit below-average according to HR/HD). No one is going to try to fool you that Petco Park is the same caliber of ballpark for Machado as Dodger Stadium or Camden Yards, but it is not outside of the realm of possibility that Machado still approaches 70 extra-base hits in 2019.


Is Machado Still Worth a Second-Round Pick?

There are many ways to answer the question above and there are external reasons as to why Machado may/may not reach value. The key reasons are the revitalization of Eric Hosmer and the development of both Luis Urias and Fernando Tatis Jr. If Hosmer is the player that he was in 2017 (or at least is not basically a replacement value 1B) and Urias/Tatis Jr. make the kind of impact that the Padres' brass think they can, Machado could approach 200 R+RBI. Even without a ton of production from his teammates in San Diego, though, remember that Machado was raking in Baltimore before his trade to the Dodgers and the Orioles were among the worst offenses in baseball last season.

A move to the Yankees may have moved Machado to the back end of the first round in deeper leagues, but it is not wise to wait past the middle-to-late second round for Machado with his move to the Padres. Currently coming off of the board as the 14th pick in NFBC drafts, Machado is likely to provide similar, if not better, production than the players that he is sandwiched between (Javier Baez and Jose Altuve). Yes, it is not trendy to pick a Padre in the second round, but these are your father's Padres now! 1984 World Series anyone???

More 2019 MLB Advice and Analysis


Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Pickups & Streamers
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts


Josh Richardson6 mins ago

Probable For Thursday's Matchup
Keita Bates-Diop13 mins ago

Ruled Out For Thursday
Jae'Sean Tate21 mins ago

Still Out Thursday
Max Strus31 mins ago

Listed As Probable For Thursday
Pascal Siakam31 mins ago

Leads Raptors To Win On Wednesday
Brandin Cooks36 mins ago

Expected To Miss Another Game
Terance Mann40 mins ago

Out Thursday
Nikola Vucevic41 mins ago

Gathers Double-Double Against Washington
Zion Williamson45 mins ago

Scores Game-High 29 Points In Win
Kawhi Leonard50 mins ago

Won't Play Thursday
Jrue Holiday50 mins ago

Drops 31 Points Against Sacramento
Kyle Lowry57 mins ago

Rested On Thursday
Domantas Sabonis59 mins ago

Puts Up Strong Stat Line Against Bucks
Ja Morant1 hour ago

Collects Second Triple-Double This Season
Joe Mixon1 hour ago

Has Cleared Concussion Protocols
Bruno Fernando1 hour ago

Questionable On Thursday With Illness
Josh Christopher1 hour ago

Tagged As Questionable Against Spurs
Nikola Jovic1 hour ago

Available To Play Against Clippers
Duncan Robinson1 hour ago

Probable For Thursday's Game
San Francisco Giants2 hours ago

Giants Acquire Blake Sabol From The Reds
Austin Brice2 hours ago

Diamondbacks Sign Austin Brice To Minor-League Deal
Jason Heyward2 hours ago

Dodgers Sign Jason Heyward To Minor-League Deal
Trevor Williams3 hours ago

Mets Could Reunite With Trevor Williams
Baker Mayfield3 hours ago

Expected To Be Active, Could Start
Marcus Mariota4 hours ago

Benched For Desmond Ridder
Andrei Kuzmenko7 hours ago

Heating Up Again
Josh Jacobs7 hours ago

Expected To Play Thursday Night
Mika Zibanejad7 hours ago

Enjoys A Three-Point Night Versus Vegas
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins7 hours ago

Piles Up Three Points Wednesday
Connor McDavid7 hours ago

Goes Off For Another Four Points
Linus Ullmark7 hours ago

Shuts Out Colorado
Taylor Hall7 hours ago

Grabs Three Points In Wednesday's Win
Patrik Laine7 hours ago

Nets Two Goals Wednesday
Alex Tuch8 hours ago

Posts Career-High Four Points
Kirill Kaprizov14 hours ago

Extends Point Streak In Loss
Alex Ovechkin14 hours ago

Scores Twice In Victory
Joe Jiménez14 hours ago

Braves Acquire Joe Jimenez From Tigers
Xander Bogaerts15 hours ago

Padres Agree With Xander Bogaerts On 11-Year Deal
Tage Thompson15 hours ago

Scores Five Goals In Dominant Victory
Tyler Herro16 hours ago

Probable For Meeting With The Clippers
Buddy Hield16 hours ago

Scores 26 Points In Loss
Tyrese Haliburton16 hours ago

Plays Well In Return From Injury
Giannis Antetokounmpo16 hours ago

Has Game-High 35 Points In Win
Dansby Swanson19 hours ago

Four Teams Showing Serious Interest In Dansby Swanson
Xander Bogaerts20 hours ago

Six Teams Talking With Xander Bogaerts
Pittsburgh Pirates21 hours ago

Pirates Take Jose Hernandez In Rule 5 Draft
Ryan Noda21 hours ago

A's Pluck Ryan Noda Away From The Dodgers
Boston Red Sox21 hours ago

Red Sox Reel In Masataka Yoshida On Five-Year Deal
Cole Hamels21 hours ago

Wants To Pitch In 2023
Josh Jacobs21 hours ago

Questionable For Thursday Night Football
New York Mets21 hours ago

Mets Remain Involved With Kodai Senga
Carlos Rodón21 hours ago

Yankees Remain In On Carlos Rodon
Mike Williams21 hours ago

Set To Practice This Week
Carlos Correa21 hours ago

Giants Have Talked With Carlos Correa
Thad Ward22 hours ago

Nationals Select Thad Ward With First Rule 5 Pick
Zach Hyman22 hours ago

Set To Return Wednesday
James Van Riemsdyk22 hours ago

James van Riemsdyk Returns To Flyers Lineup
Craig Smith22 hours ago

Back For Bruins Wednesday
James Reimer22 hours ago

Misses Another Game
Nico Sturm22 hours ago

Back In Action Wednesday
Jack Eichel22 hours ago

Sits Out A Second Game
Filip Chytil23 hours ago

Ready To Go Wednesday
Jimmy Garoppolo23 hours ago

A Long Shot To Return In Playoffs
Joe Mixon24 hours ago

A Full Participant In Practice
Los Angeles Rams1 day ago

Aaron Donald Ruled Out For Thursday Night
Trevor Lawrence1 day ago

Expects To Play In Week 14
Brooks Raley1 day ago

Mets Acquire Brooks Raley From Rays
Casey Sadler1 day ago

Mariners Sign Casey Sadler To Minors Deal
Tucker Barnhart1 day ago

Pirates Interested In Tucker Barnhart
Seth Lugo1 day ago

Drawing A Lot Of Interest To Start
Courtland Sutton1 day ago

Unlikely To Play In Week 14
Xander Bogaerts1 day ago

Red Sox In Heavy Discussions With Xander Bogaerts
David Njoku1 day ago

Ready To Play
Buffalo Bills1 day ago

Von Miller Undergoes Surgery, Out For The Year
Mark Ingram II1 day ago

Likely Done For The Season
Trevor Lawrence1 day ago

Up In The Air For Week 14
Tua Tagovailoa1 day ago

Expected To Be Limited In Practice
Davis Mills1 day ago

Texans Going Back To Davis Mills At QB
Magomed Ankalaev1 day ago

Can Realize His UFC Dream
Jan Blachowicz1 day ago

Set For Title Redemption
Jared Gordon1 day ago

Has An Opportunity For A Huge Victory
Paddy Pimblett1 day ago

Set To Showcase In UFC 282
Matt Murray1 day ago

Records A 44-Save Shutout
Pierre-Luc Dubois1 day ago

Extends Hot Streak With Three Assists
Anze Kopitar1 day ago

Collects Three Assists
Dricus Du Plessis1 day ago

Hoping To Continue To Rack Up Wins
Darren Till1 day ago

Looking For A Key Victory At UFC 282
Ilia Topuria1 day ago

Meets Fellow Top-15 Undefeated Featherweight
Bryce Mitchell1 day ago

Set To Open UFC 282 Main Card
Greg Dortch2 days ago

Cardinals Hopeful Rondale Moore, Greg Dortch Return This Week
Jimmy Garoppolo2 days ago

Will Avoid Surgery, Could Return In Playoffs
Baker Mayfield2 days ago

Claimed By The Rams
Kevin Holland3 days ago

Takes The Loss In Saturday's Main Event
Stephen Thompson3 days ago

Earns Victory In Main Event
Bryan Barberena3 days ago

Unable To Secure A Win Saturday
Rafael Dos Anjos3 days ago

Rafael dos Anjos Takes Co-Main Event By Submission
Matt Schnell3 days ago

Matthew Christopher Schnell Takes The Loss Saturday
Matheus Nicolau3 days ago

Continues Run With TKO Victory
Tai Tuivasa3 days ago

Suffers Second Straight Loss
Sergei Pavlovich3 days ago

Earns Fifth Straight Victory With Knockout Win
Jack Hermansson3 days ago

Ends 2022 With Losing Record
Roman Dolidze3 days ago

Makes Most Of Opportunity With TKO Victory
Kyle Daukaus3 days ago

Has His Night Come To An Early End
Eryk Anders3 days ago

Gets It Done With A Second TKO Performance
Kevin Holland5 days ago

Hoping To Rebound With Main-Event Victory