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Happy Wednesday, RotoBallers! I'm excited to be covering another fun DFS slate. The MLB season has been good to me in the early going, so I'm looking forward to sifting through another crop of games. Let's break down my favorite plays from today's main slate!
With a few games scattered throughout the day, we're left with a robust 12-game main slate. Today's matchups feature an intriguing array of pitching options, opening up plenty of opportunities to get creative with your lineup builds. I'll point out the standout plays.
This article will provide my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 6/14/2023 and the main slate locking at 7:05 pm ET. The lineup picks will range from some elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports here. It's also essential to monitor injury news and today's MLB starting lineups. Now that we got all that out of the way, it's onto the picks!
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DraftKings, FanDuel Pitchers - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Luis Castillo, SEA vs. MIA ($9,800 DK, $10,800 FD)
All things considered, Luis Castillo stands out as the slate's top pitching play. He sports a 2.70 ERA through 13 starts, and the underlying numbers support his sustained success. Castillo carries a 3.38 xERA, including a 3.24 xFIP, .290 xwOBA, .221 xBA, and a 5.5% walk rate.
He's not immune to hard contact, but putting the ball in play is far from a given, as evidenced by Castillo's elite 33.2% whiff rate and 30% strikeout rate. Limiting damage and striking batters out is about all you can hope for from an ace, and Castillo embodies that as well as anyone today.
The Marlins are a vastly improved team this season, sitting in second place in the NL East with a 37-31 record. However, that success is not because of their offense. Miami scores just under four runs per game on the season, and they do most of that damage against southpaws. Against right-handed pitchers, they own a weak .693 OPS alongside similarly mediocre numbers, like a .139 ISO and 91 wRC+. It's a very favorable matchup for Castillo.
Castillo looks fantastic in this spot. He creates a solid floor and ceiling with phenomenal strikeout production and should match up well against a struggling Miami offense. Factoring in the pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park as the setting, you can't ask for much better optics.
Tyler Glasnow, TB vs. OAK ($9,400 DK, $10,100 FD)
Tyler Glasnow's 2023 sample size is just three starts deep, but the results have been encouraging for the oft-injured ace. He sports a 2.87 ERA and 31.3% strikeout rate after navigating a murderer's row of opponents in the Dodgers, Red Sox, and Rangers. He has hardly pitched since 2021 but posted a 2.74 xERA, 2.70 xFIP, and a 36.2% strikeout rate across 88 innings that season. Glasnow's long-term value is severely clouded by injury concerns, but when healthy, he is as dominant as anyone. He won't work deeper than six innings, but Glasnow's strikeout upside is better than anyone else on this slate.
After the difficult opponents Glasnow successfully shut down, facing the Athletics will be a relief. Despite having won seven games in a row entering today, Oakland sports a horrible .648 OPS against right-handed pitchers, including a .129 ISO and 87 wRC+. They also strike out at a 25.4% rate, the third-highest mark in baseball.
As a further bonus, Oakland plays in a very pitcher-friendly ballpark, which further bolsters the case for rostering Glasnow. The Rays are understandably playing it cautious with Glasnow's workload, so his ceiling is capped somewhat to whatever he can accomplish in about six innings. That said, with a weak opponent and a career 30.2% strikeout rate, Glasnow can accomplish a lot in six innings.
Also consider: Clayton Kershaw, Framber Valdez, Ranger Suarez
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DraftKings, FanDuel Infielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Freddie Freeman – 1B, LAD vs. Mike Clevinger ($6,300 DK, $4,500 FD)
Freeman is in the midst of another outstanding season, slashing .338/.413/.586 with 13 home runs and a league-leading 24 doubles. That includes some absolute top-tier numbers, like a .343 xBA, .625 xSLG, .436 xwOBA, 91.4 mph average exit velocity, 45.2% hard-hit rate, and 13.2% barrel rate. You can feel confident rostering Freeman any day, but today looks like a particularly good matchup.
Mike Clevinger's best days are firmly behind him. He sports a 4.76 xERA and 5.38 xFIP through 11 starts this season. That includes a .435 xSLG, .339 xwOBA, and 8.9% barrel rate. The majority of that damage occurs against left-handed hitters, who are slugging .500 against Clevinger. As a bonus, the White Sox bullpen carries the fifth-worst ERA in the majors (4.75), so Freeman should have great opportunities all game.
Nolan Jones – 1B/3B/OF, COL vs. Garrett Whitlock ($3,900 DK, $3,900 FD)
Nolan Jones has been red-hot since getting recalled from Triple-A. He owns a 159 OPS+ alongside four home runs, five doubles, and four stolen bases through 17 games. That includes slugging .692 with a .308 ISO against right-handed pitchers. The sample size is small, but for what it's worth, Jones was tearing it up in Triple-A to the tune of a .356/.481/.711 slash line with 12 home runs across 25 appearances. He's a bright spot in a largely quiet Rockies lineup.
Garrett Whitlock has a tendency to give up power. He's allowed an atrocious .292 xBA, .483 xSLG, and 10.1% barrel rate in six starts this season. He's getting crushed by hitters of all handedness, though left-handed batters have historically given him more trouble in his career.
Gunnar Henderson – 3B/SS, BAL vs. Jose Berrios ($3,700 DK, $3,100 FD)
One of the hottest hitters in baseball over the past week, Henderson is a strong play with useful positional flexibility. He's homered in four of his past five games, including four multi-hit efforts in that span. Henderson was struggling at the plate earlier this season, but the underlying numbers have always suggested positive regression was on the way. He carries a .463 xSLG, 13.8% barrel rate, 50% hard-hit rate, 92 mph average exit velocity, and .356 xwOBA.
Jose Berrios has a longstanding problem with left-handed hitters. They're slugging .457 against him in 2023, down from .514 with 20 home runs last season. He's limited the long ball better so far this year, but the underlying numbers suggest he's due for negative regression. I like Henderson and several other Baltimore lefties to jump on Berrios in this spot.
DraftKings, FanDuel Outfielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Mike Trout – OF, LAA vs. Andrew Heaney ($6,000 DK, $3,600 FD)
Trout's slash line is a little muted compared to what we're accustomed to seeing, but he's still having a very productive year at the plate. He sports a .512 xSLG, .384 xwOBA, 15.7% barrel rate, 51.8% hard-hit rate, and 92 mph average exit velocity. Trout is due for some positive regression, and this looks like a great opportunity to kick-start that process.
Heaney is a middling arm, carrying a 4.24 xERA through 12 starts. The damage against him has come almost exclusively against right-handed hitters. Righties are slugging .447 against him with 10 home runs and a .334 wOBA.
Luke Raley – OF, TB vs. Luis Medina ($3,600 DK, $3,200 FD)
If pinch-hitting didn't exist, Raley's price tag would be much higher. He's absolutely crushing the ball this season, slashing .265/.351/.585 with 11 home runs. That includes a .587 xSLG, .398 xwOBA, 54.6% hard-hit rate, 93.4 mph average exit velocity, and 20.6% barrel rate. There's always a chance the Rays will sub him out if a southpaw takes the mound, but Raley has hit lefties well when given the opportunity. Either way, he's too cheap for his production level.
Luis Medina isn't fooling anyone this season. He sports a 6.06 xERA, including a .519 xSLG, .376 xwOBA, 43% hard-hit rate, and 10.3% barrel rate. Both right-handed and left-handed hitters are slugging north of .540 against Medina, so feel free to attack him from any number of angles.
Rob Refsnyder – OF, BOS vs. Austin Gomber ($2,600 DK, $2,600 FD)
Refsnyder is far from the scariest bat in Boston's lineup, but he's cheap to roster and typically hits near the top of the order against left-handed pitching. He slugged .594 against southpaws in 2022, down to a still-respectable .464 slugging percentage this season, including a .418 wOBA and 166 wRC+. Other Boston bats like Rafael Devers and Adam Duvall look great today, too. For salary relief, Refsnyder is an excellent play.
Austin Gomber is getting crushed by hitters on both sides of the plate. Altogether, he's surrendered a horrible .323 xBA, .582 xSLG, .413 xwOBA, 44.3% hard-hit rate, and 9.9% barrel rate. That amounts to 16 home runs allowed, the third-most in the majors this season.
DraftKings, FanDuel MLB DFS Stacks
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Luis Medina
The Rays have dropped the first two games of this series, but I expect them to bounce back in a huge way today. They score 5.6 runs per game on the season, including a strong 110 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Their lineup is loaded with talent, ranging from premium names like Wander Franco and Yandy Diaz to midrange options like Luke Raley and Isaac Paredes. Most stacks will come with a price, but the payoff should be worthwhile in this matchup.
Luis Medina is getting lit up by everyone this season. He carries a 6.06 xERA, consisting of a .519 xSLG, .376 xwOBA, 43% hard-hit rate, and 10.3% barrel rate. Hitters of all handedness are crushing Medina, so no Rays' bat is off the table. Further, Oakland's bullpen has by far the worst ERA in baseball (5.93). Even when Medina's day is done, the scoring opportunities will keep coming.
Favorite Plays: Wander Franco, Yandy Diaz, Randy Arozarena, Luke Raley, Josh Lowe
Boston Red Sox vs. Austin Gomber
The Red Sox will likely be among the most popular stacks again today. With Adam Duvall back in the mix, their lineup is loaded with potential. Guys like Devers and Yoshida will come at an expensive price, but cheap bats like Justin Turner, Rob Refsnyder, and Christian Arroyo will make stakes very accessible. As a team, they carry a .789 OPS against left-handed pitching, including a 118 wRC+.
In short, Austin Gomber has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball this season. He sports a 7.65 xERA, including a .323 xBA, .582 xSLG, .413 xwOBA, 44.3% hard-hit rate, and 9.9% barrel rate. Hitters from both sides of the plate are slugging north of .560 against Gomber, so all Red Sox bats are on the table.
Favorite Plays: Rafael Devers, Adam Duvall, Masataka Yoshida, Justin Turner, Alex Verdugo
Also Consider: Baltimore Orioles, Los Angeles Dodgers, Cincinnati Reds
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