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By now, we all know the drill. The Green Bay Packers are not going to use a first-round pick on a pass-catcher. It hasn’t happened since the Packers selected Javon Walker in 2002. However, that didn’t stop the Packers from adding a couple of new pass-catchers for Jordan Love in the second round.
With their first pick in the second round, the Packers selected Luke Musgrave out of Oregon State with the 42nd pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. The Packers have since lost 2022 co-starters Robert Tonyan and Marcedes Lewis to free agency. While Lewis has not signed anywhere yet, the organization has indicated they do not plan to resign him.
The only other tight end on the roster with more than 10 catches is Josiah Degura, a disappointing third-round pick from the 2020 draft. With Green Bay’s tight end depth chart, Musgrave has an amazing opportunity to see a lot of playing time very early, but can fantasy managers trust him? Let’s dive in and please use promo code "BOOM" for 10% off of any premium purchase.
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Luke Musgrave Athletic Profile
Luke Musgrave is a bit of an enigma when it comes to NFL prospects. He appeared in just two games during his true freshman campaign of 2019 and the 2020 season was caught short due to Covid-19. He played 13 games and started nine in 2021, but was injured in the second game of his senior year this past season. Due to the limited playing time, the Packers and fantasy managers alike, are taking a small leap of faith. When it comes to tight ends, there is a significant positive correlation between productive tight end play and RAS (Relative Athletic Scores).
More than that, since 2000, Kent Lee Platte, the author of RAS, indicates that 12 tight ends who qualified for RAS scores had at least one 1,000-yard season. Of those 12, 10 of them posted a RAS score over 9.00. The connection between elite tight ends and elite RAS scores is a long one that it becomes an incredibly important indicator for potential success in the NFL. While just being an elite athlete doesn't guarantee success, history tells us it's pretty much a requirement. To be successful without elite athleticism requires a tight end to be a serious outlier.
Eifert - 9.36
Pitta - 8.93
Martelleus Bennett - 8.43
Hernandez - 8.15
Julius Thomas - 7.84
Ebron - 7.88
Schultz - 7.25
Ertz - 6.36
Henry - 6.3
Witten - 9.62
Daniels - 8.71
Gresham - 7.88
Clark - 9.86
Cooley - 8.75
Walker - 7.22
Average - 8.6
Lowest - 6.3
Highest - 9.94— Rob (@RobFFSlayer) February 27, 2023
Luckily for Musgrave, the Green Bay Packers, and fantasy managers looking to draft the rookie tight end, he has an elite athletic profile. This creates optimism for Musgrave in the long term and in the short term, as well.
I get it, Travis Kelce is a unicorn. It's like chasing the Deebo Samuel type. But...this comp is pretty incredible.
My opinion: Luke Musgrave has the highest ceiling of any tight end in this class, Dalton Kincaid included. pic.twitter.com/G6F400kd4U
— Zach Kruse (@zachkruse2) April 28, 2023
Luke Musgrave College Career
In his first two years at Oregon State, Musgrave had just 29 targets, 14 receptions, and 160 yards. He played in a total of 15 games during the 2019 and 2020 seasons. It wasn't until 2021 that Musgrave finally got a chance to play and the results were somewhat mixed. In 2021, he played in 12 games, starting nine of them. He finished with 40 targets, 22 receptions, 304 yards, and 1 touchdown.
He recorded a 12.5% target share in his junior season and PFF gave him a receiving grade of 63.4. His efficiency left a bit to be desired as he finished with just a 1.23-yard per route run average. However, Beaver coaches identified Musgrave's upside as a receiver, choosing to line him up in the slot on 37.3% of his snaps. For his fantasy football potential, this is an excellent sign because it points to his upside as a receiver. However, just because there wasn't elite production statistically, that doesn't mean he didn't open eyes during his time at Oregon State. In fact, often times college production doesn't tell us much about success at the NFL level for tight ends.
Who better to learn about the #Packers' draft picks than the men who coached them?
Here's Oregon State's tight ends coach talking about Luke Musgrave.
“I’m here to tell you, he’s one of the more talented guys I’ve ever been around.”https://t.co/QgkPHO0Amn
— Bill Huber (@BillHuberNFL) May 2, 2023
In his final season, Musgrave was able to play in just two games before suffering a knee injury that cost him the rest of his senior year. In those first two games of the season, he had 15 targets, 11 receptions, 169 yards, and a touchdown. He was absolutely dominant in those games, albeit a very small sample size, but the dominance was there. He registered a 29.4% target share and was responsible for 37.9% of the team's receptions, 33.1% of the passing yards, and 33.3% of the passing touchdowns.
His yard per route run average jumped all the way up to 3.38, which was first among tight ends with 15 targets. We have to obviously take this small sample with a grain of salt, but it sure did look like Musgrave was on his way to a very impressive final season. PFF gave him a receiving grade of 79.2, another piece of evidence indicating substantial improvement from year three to year four and once again, Musgrave was used heavily in the slot at 38.3%.
Luke Musgrave Fantasy Football Expectations
From last year's team, Tonyan and Lewis combined to have 74 targets, 59 receptions, 536 yards, and 4 touchdowns. Allen Lazard, Amari Rodgers, Sammy Watkins, and Randall Cobb have also all moved on, opening up 180 targets, 111 receptions, 1,461 yards, and 7 touchdowns. There is plenty of opportunity in Green Bay for Musgrave if he can earn it. Considering the depth chart and the heavy utilization of 12-personnel last year, Musgrave is going to be on the field early and often.
A positive for both the rookie Packers tight ends - Green Bay ran 12 personnel (2 TE sets) 30% of the time in 2022, the most in the NFL
Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft will have opportunities in a weak TE room
— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) May 10, 2023
While fantasy managers should expect rookie sensation Christian Watson to lead the way among the Packers' pass-catchers, who becomes Love's No. 2 preferred target is anyone's guess. While it looks like Romeo Doubs, a 2022 fourth-round pick, would seem to have the upper hand, it shouldn't be a surprise if that person ends up being Musgrave or fellow rookie Jayden Reed. The pass-catching group behind Watson is a bit of an ambiguous group, which can present some upside.
The downside to Musgrave's fantasy potential is the team's passing volume, which has been mediocre even when they employed Aaron Rodgers at quarterback. In fact, in Matt LaFleur's four seasons as the Packers' head coach, the Packers have never, not once, been higher than 15th in pass attempts.
The most likely outcome here is that the Packers take a committee-based approach behind Watson, similar to what they did last year among their pass-catchers. Aaron Jones will continue to be used heavily out of the backfield and Watson will operate as the team's clear No. 1. However, behind those two, there's likely not to be much consistency in the target distribution. Some weeks it'll be Doubs, some weeks it'll be Reed, and other weeks it'll be Musgrave.
That'll make it very difficult for Musgrave to be a consistent fantasy option operating as the No. 3 to No. 5 target on any given week on an offense that is likely to be no higher than the middle of the pack in terms of pass attempts. Making the reasonable expectation that Love isn't as good as Rodgers in year one, makes Musgrave a long shot for fantasy relevancy as a rookie. However, in best ball and deeper leagues, he's an interesting dart throw due to his elite athleticism and the lack of defined pass-catching roles behind Watson.
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