Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!


Receive free daily analysis


Already have an account? Log In


Forgot Password


Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Starts and Sit
Daily Fantasy
Who To Pickup
Fantasy Updates
24x7 News and Alerts

Luke Musgrave Fantasy Football Profile - NFL Rookie Sleeper

By now, we all know the drill. The Green Bay Packers are not going to use a first-round pick on a pass-catcher. It hasn’t happened since the Packers selected Javon Walker in 2002. However, that didn’t stop the Packers from adding a couple of new pass-catchers for Jordan Love in the second round.

With their first pick in the second round, the Packers selected Luke Musgrave out of Oregon State with the 42nd pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. The Packers have since lost 2022 co-starters Robert Tonyan and Marcedes Lewis to free agency. While Lewis has not signed anywhere yet, the organization has indicated they do not plan to resign him.

The only other tight end on the roster with more than 10 catches is Josiah Degura, a disappointing third-round pick from the 2020 draft. With Green Bay’s tight end depth chart, Musgrave has an amazing opportunity to see a lot of playing time very early, but can fantasy managers trust him? Let’s dive in and please use promo code "BOOM" for 10% off of any premium purchase.

Featured Promo: Battle it out on Bettle with your season-long lineups! Join the free RotoBaller weekly contests on Bettle -- just important your season-long lineups and enter! Winners get a free year of RotoBaller Premium access for all sports ($450 value) plus another free $50 in Bettle credits! Join Now!


Luke Musgrave Athletic Profile

Luke Musgrave is a bit of an enigma when it comes to NFL prospects. He appeared in just two games during his true freshman campaign of 2019 and the 2020 season was caught short due to Covid-19. He played 13 games and started nine in 2021, but was injured in the second game of his senior year this past season. Due to the limited playing time, the Packers and fantasy managers alike, are taking a small leap of faith. When it comes to tight ends, there is a significant positive correlation between productive tight end play and RAS (Relative Athletic Scores).

More than that, since 2000, Kent Lee Platte, the author of RAS, indicates that 12 tight ends who qualified for RAS scores had at least one 1,000-yard season. Of those 12, 10 of them posted a RAS score over 9.00. The connection between elite tight ends and elite RAS scores is a long one that it becomes an incredibly important indicator for potential success in the NFL. While just being an elite athlete doesn't guarantee success, history tells us it's pretty much a requirement. To be successful without elite athleticism requires a tight end to be a serious outlier.

Luckily for Musgrave, the Green Bay Packers, and fantasy managers looking to draft the rookie tight end, he has an elite athletic profile. This creates optimism for Musgrave in the long term and in the short term, as well.


Luke Musgrave College Career

In his first two years at Oregon State, Musgrave had just 29 targets, 14 receptions, and 160 yards. He played in a total of 15 games during the 2019 and 2020 seasons. It wasn't until 2021 that Musgrave finally got a chance to play and the results were somewhat mixed. In 2021, he played in 12 games, starting nine of them. He finished with 40 targets, 22 receptions, 304 yards, and 1 touchdown.

He recorded a 12.5% target share in his junior season and PFF gave him a receiving grade of 63.4. His efficiency left a bit to be desired as he finished with just a 1.23-yard per route run average. However, Beaver coaches identified Musgrave's upside as a receiver, choosing to line him up in the slot on 37.3% of his snaps. For his fantasy football potential, this is an excellent sign because it points to his upside as a receiver. However, just because there wasn't elite production statistically, that doesn't mean he didn't open eyes during his time at Oregon State. In fact, often times college production doesn't tell us much about success at the NFL level for tight ends.

In his final season, Musgrave was able to play in just two games before suffering a knee injury that cost him the rest of his senior year. In those first two games of the season, he had 15 targets, 11 receptions, 169 yards, and a touchdown. He was absolutely dominant in those games, albeit a very small sample size, but the dominance was there. He registered a 29.4% target share and was responsible for 37.9% of the team's receptions, 33.1% of the passing yards, and 33.3% of the passing touchdowns.

His yard per route run average jumped all the way up to 3.38, which was first among tight ends with 15 targets. We have to obviously take this small sample with a grain of salt, but it sure did look like Musgrave was on his way to a very impressive final season. PFF gave him a receiving grade of 79.2, another piece of evidence indicating substantial improvement from year three to year four and once again, Musgrave was used heavily in the slot at 38.3%.


Luke Musgrave Fantasy Football Expectations

From last year's team, Tonyan and Lewis combined to have 74 targets, 59 receptions, 536 yards, and 4 touchdowns. Allen Lazard, Amari Rodgers, Sammy Watkins, and Randall Cobb have also all moved on, opening up 180 targets, 111 receptions, 1,461 yards, and 7 touchdowns. There is plenty of opportunity in Green Bay for Musgrave if he can earn it. Considering the depth chart and the heavy utilization of 12-personnel last year, Musgrave is going to be on the field early and often.

While fantasy managers should expect rookie sensation Christian Watson to lead the way among the Packers' pass-catchers, who becomes Love's No. 2 preferred target is anyone's guess. While it looks like Romeo Doubs, a 2022 fourth-round pick, would seem to have the upper hand, it shouldn't be a surprise if that person ends up being Musgrave or fellow rookie Jayden Reed. The pass-catching group behind Watson is a bit of an ambiguous group, which can present some upside.

The downside to Musgrave's fantasy potential is the team's passing volume, which has been mediocre even when they employed Aaron Rodgers at quarterback. In fact, in Matt LaFleur's four seasons as the Packers' head coach, the Packers have never, not once, been higher than 15th in pass attempts.

The most likely outcome here is that the Packers take a committee-based approach behind Watson, similar to what they did last year among their pass-catchers. Aaron Jones will continue to be used heavily out of the backfield and Watson will operate as the team's clear No. 1. However, behind those two, there's likely not to be much consistency in the target distribution. Some weeks it'll be Doubs, some weeks it'll be Reed, and other weeks it'll be Musgrave.

That'll make it very difficult for Musgrave to be a consistent fantasy option operating as the No. 3 to No. 5 target on any given week on an offense that is likely to be no higher than the middle of the pack in terms of pass attempts. Making the reasonable expectation that Love isn't as good as Rodgers in year one, makes Musgrave a long shot for fantasy relevancy as a rookie. However, in best ball and deeper leagues, he's an interesting dart throw due to his elite athleticism and the lack of defined pass-catching roles behind Watson.

As a reminder, if you're interested in purchasing any of our premium packages for the upcoming fantasy football season, use promo code "BOOM" to receive a 10% discount.

Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!

Win Big With RotoBaller

Be sure to also check out all of our other daily fantasy football articles and analysis to help you set those winning lineups, including this new RotoBaller YouTube video:

More NFL Rookie Profiles


Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Starts and Sit
Daily Fantasy
Who To Pickup
Fantasy Updates
24x7 News and Alerts


Deebo Samuel13 mins ago

49ers "Optimistic" Deebo Samuel Will Play
Baltimore Orioles50 mins ago

Felix Bautista To Undergo Tommy John Surgery
Philipp Kurashev3 hours ago

Sits Out Blackhawks Morning Skate Saturday
Alex Killorn3 hours ago

Out 4-6 Weeks With Broken Finger
Saquon Barkley4 hours ago

Now Listed As Doubtful For MNF
David Njoku4 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Week 4 Against Baltimore
Saquon Barkley6 hours ago

Expected To Be Game-Time Decision
Derek Carr7 hours ago

Likely To Be Game-Time Decision
Justice Hill7 hours ago

Expected To Play Sunday
Bobby Witt Jr.8 hours ago

Joins Rarefied Air With Homer In Win
Jake Guentzel8 hours ago

Returns To Practice
Cale Makar8 hours ago

Joins Avalanche Practice In Regular Jersey
Zach Whitecloud9 hours ago

Ruled Out For Rest Of Preseason
John Gibson9 hours ago

Injured In Friday's Preseason Game
Marcus Foligno9 hours ago

Inks Four-Year Extension With Wild
CBJ9 hours ago

Spencer Martin Lands In Columbus
Anthony Davis9 hours ago

Lakers Brass Impressed With Anthony Davis' Offseason Work
Jayson Tatum10 hours ago

Skipped Offseason Surgery
Theo Maledon10 hours ago

Returns To Charlotte On Two-Way Deal
Edmond Sumner10 hours ago

Picked Up By Hornets
Los Angeles Clippers10 hours ago

Josh Primo Set To Join Clippers
Patrick Mahomes17 hours ago

Good To Go In Week 4
Nico Hoerner17 hours ago

Forced From Friday's Game
Jorge Polanco17 hours ago

Day-To-Day With Sore Ankle
Jon Gray18 hours ago

Rangers Lose Jon Gray To Forearm Tightness
Los Angeles Chargers22 hours ago

Derwin James Doubtful For Week 4
Jimmy Garoppolo23 hours ago

Officially Questionable For Week 4
San Francisco Giants23 hours ago

Gabe Kapler Let Go By Giants
Adley Rutschman23 hours ago

Scratched On Friday
Brandon Aiyuk1 day ago

Will Play Against Arizona
Deebo Samuel1 day ago

Questionable To Play In Week 4
Gus Edwards1 day ago

Removed From The Injury Report
Los Angeles Chargers1 day ago

Joey Bosa Misses Practice Again On Friday
Austin Ekeler1 day ago

Not Expected To Play Sunday
Yandy Díaz1 day ago

Yandy Diaz Back Against Blue Jays
Luis Arraez1 day ago

Remains Out Friday
Paul Goldschmidt1 day ago

Back In Cardinals Lineup
Justice Hill1 day ago

Questionable For Week 4
Jameson Williams1 day ago

Eligible To Return In Week 5
Odell Beckham Jr.1 day ago

Rashod Bateman, Odell Beckham Jr. Ruled Out
Derek Carr1 day ago

Will Be Questionable In Week 4
Joe Burrow1 day ago

Not On Final Injury Report
Tyler Higbee1 day ago

Rams List Tyler Higbee As Questionable
Cooper Kupp1 day ago

Will Practice Next Week
Cole Perfetti1 day ago

Back At Practice Friday
Mats Zuccarello1 day ago

Signs Extension With Wild
Dustin Wolf1 day ago

Likely Starting Season In AHL
Brandon Nimmo1 day ago

Season Likely Over
MLB1 day ago

Phillies-Mets Postponed On Friday
Connor Bedard1 day ago

Hands Out Two Assists In Blackhawks Debut
Mason Appleton1 day ago

Nursing Lower-Body Injury
Nate Schmidt1 day ago

Day-To-Day With Lower-Body Injury
Cam York1 day ago

Considered Day-To-Day
Mattias Ekholm1 day ago

Set To Be Available Soon
Ryan McLeod1 day ago

On Track To Return For Start Of Season
Matthew Savoie1 day ago

Expected To Return To Practice Next Week
Tanner Scott2 days ago

Back From Paternity List
Jeff McNeil2 days ago

Has Partial UCL Tear
Freddy Peralta2 days ago

Brandon Woodruff Won't Pitch This Weekend
Kris Bryant2 days ago

Remains On The Bench With Illness
Luis Arraez2 days ago

Still Out Of Lineup With Sprained Ankle
Paul Goldschmidt2 days ago

Has Back Tightness, May Return Friday
Jeff McNeil2 days ago

Closes Year On Injured List
Mikael Granlund2 days ago

Skates For 30 Minutes Thursday
Shakir Mukhamadullin2 days ago

Likely To Begin Season In AHL
Ty Smith2 days ago

Placed On Waivers By Penguins
Brian Anderson2 days ago

Garrett Mitchell Reinstated, Brian Anderson DFA'd
Pablo López2 days ago

Pablo Lopez To Start Game 1 Of Wild-Card Series
Golden State Warriors3 days ago

Rudy Gay Signs Deal With Warriors
3 days ago

Kobe Brown Healthy To Begin Training Camp
Victor Oladipo3 days ago

Won't Be Ready For Training Camp
Miami Heat3 days ago

R.J. Hampton Joins Heat On Two-Way Deal
Kawhi Leonard3 days ago

Paul George Healthy For Training Camp
Nassir Little3 days ago

Keon Johnson Shipped To Suns
Grayson Allen3 days ago

Headed To Phoenix
Jrue Holiday3 days ago

Moved To Portland In Massive Swap
Jusuf Nurkic3 days ago

Joining Suns In Three-Team Deal
Deandre Ayton3 days ago

Portland Obtains Deandre Ayton In Huge Trade
Damian Lillard3 days ago

Bucks Acquiring Damian Lillard In Blockbuster Trade
Damian Lillard4 days ago

Joining Heat Becoming "Unlikely"
Scottie Barnes4 days ago

"Not Available" In Trade Talks
Buddy Hield4 days ago

Pacers Want To Keep Buddy Hield
Chris Paul4 days ago

Steve Kerr Still Undecided On Chris Paul's Role
Ryan Preece4 days ago

Will Remain With Stewart-Haas Racing In 2024
Los Angeles Clippers4 days ago

Clippers, Brodric Thomas Agree To Exhibit 10 Deal
Rafael Fiziev5 days ago

Suffers Knee Injury To Cut Main Event Short
Rafael Fiziev5 days ago

Mateusz Gamrot Victorious After Rafael Fiziev Suffers Knee Injury
Michelle Waterson-Gomez5 days ago

Dominated In TKO Loss
AJ Fletcher5 days ago

Drops To 1-3 In The UFC
AJ Fletcher5 days ago

Bryan Battle Submits AJ Fletcher For Second Straight Finishing Win
Ryan Blaney5 days ago

Speeding Penalty Costs Him Big At Texas
William Byron5 days ago

Earns Sixth Win Of Season At Texas
Denny Hamlin5 days ago

Secures Third Straight Top-Five Finish At Texas
Tyler Reddick5 days ago

Late Wreck Ruins Tyler Reddick's Race At Texas
Chase Briscoe5 days ago

Delivers Big Value At Texas
Kyle Busch5 days ago

Championship Hopes Take Big Hit After Texas Wreck
Ross Chastain5 days ago

Overcomes Throttle Issue To Finish Second At Texas
NASCAR5 days ago

Bubba Wallace "Gave it Away" At Texas, Finishes Third
Chris Buescher5 days ago

Has Another Strong Points Day At Texas
Kyle Larson5 days ago

On Playoff Hot Seat After Wrecking At Texas