Late-Round Fliers for Fantasy Football - RB, WR, TE Draft Values

September 2, 2024

Nick Mariano's 2024 fantasy football late-round draft fliers and value picks. His running back, wide receiver and tight end sleepers to target late in drafts.

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Fantasy football drafters often spend the bulk of their preparation on their early picks only to reflexively take familiar names late, but we can't overlook those final picks. Allow this piece to help balance the workload by laying out some late-round fliers at running back, wide receiver, and tight end that are worth taking due to their upside. The name of the game here is finding players who could hit it big at little cost, but who you can cut ties with if needed when the first in-season waiver run occurs.

Those seeking kicker or defense fliers, feel free to ask but I'd advocate skipping K/DEF and using the extra bench slots on late-round RB/WR fliers. Hitting on those positions is so valuable compared to stashing a top-flight kicker or defense, which can be adequately streamed.

For today’s purposes, we're using aggregate ADP data from half-PPR drafts as of 8/12/2024. Let's dig in!

Late-Round Fliers - Running Backs

Jaylen Wright (MIA), RB46

The fast-flying Dolphins took Wright in the fourth round of the 2024 NFL Draft to bump the ceiling of their RB depth. Miami lacked that explosive player in the backfield when De'Von Achane was out last season and now Wright, who had the second-highest Athleticism Score (93) at the NFL Combine, fills that slot.

Player tracking data at the combine unlocks the ability to measure explosiveness during the forty.

Jaylen Wright (@Vol_Football) is the first running back to reach 15 mph within the first five yards of the 40-yard dash over the last two combines.#NFLCombine x @nflnetwork pic.twitter.com/m9S2Xxnp2O

— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) March 2, 2024

There’s no denying that Mike McDaniel’s scheme has a type and Miami wasn’t shy about trading some 2025 draft capital to move up and select Wright with the 120th pick this year. The 21-year-old topped 1,000 rushing yards on just 137 carries as a junior at Tennessee last season, averaging 7.4 yards per carry.

That YPC was padded by a whopping 4.35 YPC after initial contact, per Pro Football Focus. And roughly 14% of his carries went for over 15 yards. And he had a 6.0 YPC across 146 totes as a sophomore too, so don’t scream “one-year wonder.”

Tennessee didn’t heavily involve him in the passing game but that doesn’t mean he isn’t useful there. His NFL Draft profile noted how he didn’t allow a single sack over 58 pass-protection reps in 2023, which stands out more than catching 22 balls for 141 yards. You won’t see the field much if you can’t help keep Tua Tagovailoa clean.

He can make a lot happen with limited touches and has the profile to fit Achane’s role should an injury strike. Or if you're fading Raheem Mostert due to age/medical history then there's another avenue to opportunity.

Tyrone Tracy Jr. (NYG), RB54

Tracy converted from wide receiver to running back ahead of his 2022 season at Purdue. In an interview, he referred to his speed and size as “average” for a receiver, but the 5-foot-11, 209-pound Tracy plays “fast” and “big” at RB. It all came together in his senior season, as he rushed for 716 yards on 113 carries with eight TDs.

The 6.3 YPC stood out, even in the Big Ten. His fast/big claims were echoed by an estimated 86 Athleticism Score at the combine (ranking 4th). He also averaged over 25 yards per kick return last season and those new NFL kickoff rules in the NFL can’t be overlooked.

It remains to be seen whether he can evolve as a balanced rusher given the more “get into space” tendencies that an experienced WR/returner is used to. Several pre-draft scouting reports cite a tendency to extend plays too long when he needs to plow ahead and take what is given.

The optimistic view is that NFL coaches have more raw talent to mold with good RB habits to fit NYG’s specific system. Eric Gray has his backers but Tracy’s versatile upside is more worth a dart to me.

*UPDATE: Tracy did have a scare when carted off in an air cast but it seems that was precautionary and he's still a nice target.

Ray Davis (BUF), RB56

This is more about James Cook failing to earn trust with his 2023 campaign than about Davis being a stunning prospect. Davis didn’t play much at Trinity in 2019-20 before transferring to Vanderbilt ahead of a 2021 season that he mostly missed due to a right toe injury.

But he came on strong with a 261-touch 2022 campaign after that, eventually transferring to Kentucky for an explosive red-shirt senior season (199 rushes, 1,129 yards, 14 TDs, 33 catches, 323 yards, 7 TDs). This raised many eyebrows.

James Cook was occasionally benched with four fumbles last season. Davis had a pair of fumbles in 2022 and ‘23, so his early form at camp/preseason will have a chance to make or break that reputation. Buffalo’s RB1 where it counts – by the end zone – is Josh Allen. There’s no changing that.

But Davis has a chance to improve on the Latavius Murray short-yardage role from 2023. If Allen’s own TD variance pulls back with an RB to rely on for the trench work then Davis could pop on a team whose receiving room is undergoing a reset.

Ray Davis is a more complete back than James Cook.

He’s a better pass-catcher, a better blocker, and might be a better runner.

Cook’s familiarization with the offense gives him a leg up, but wouldn’t be shocked to see these two in a split backfield by end of szn.

— Jake Estes (@dynasty_jake) June 25, 2024

Late-Round Fliers - Wide Receivers

Dontayvion Wicks (GB), WR66

The Packers boast an immensely talented WR corps in 2024. Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, and Romeo Doubs are typically drafted as top-50 WRs in fantasy drafts, with Wicks effectively being a WR handcuff to Watson/Doubs. Wicks dazzled with 581 yards on 39 catches and led the WRs with five broken tackles and 101 yards after contact.

His plus production on limited work made him the highest-graded PFF WR on Green Bay at 77.8, the No. 26 WR overall. Doubs (73.6, 39th), Reed (73.3, 41st), and Watson (68.2, 59th) are no slouches either.

Of course, this all flowed through Jordan Love, who threw multiple TDs in seven of their last eight games as the QB2 in that span, trailing only Josh Allen. This was even more impressive than being the QB6 in PPG and QB5 across the entire year.

Wicks is primarily a hedge against Watson’s hamstring/general health holding up. There may also be a rotation between Watson/Wicks on the outside next to Doubs. Wicks' snap count was 50% or greater in the six games that he fully played without Watson. And great things happen when he gets targets!

Yards per Target leaders
[Including only on-target throws]

- Amari Cooper pops in any stat that controls for adequate QB play

- The people love Dontayvion Wicks for good reason pic.twitter.com/lTdV66uWK4

— Fantasy Points Data (@FantasyPtsData) May 25, 2024

Jalen McMillan (TB), WR85

The Bucs tried Trey Palmer as a viable No. 3 WR behind Mike Evans and Chris Godwin,  but he posted just one week with more than nine PPR points. Deven Thompkins mostly contributed on special teams. Cade Otton is fine but doesn’t command a hefty target share. Rachaad White was very involved in the passing game but there’s room for a third WR to emerge here.

And that’s where McMillan enters the picture. Tampa selected the 6-foot-1 wideout with the 92nd overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft after a down season at Washington where he was largely affected by a Grade 2 MCL sprain in his left knee. Even so, he put up a 45-559-5 receiving line after a 79-1098-9 line as a redshirt sophomore.

That’s the man who Tampa envisions earning a perimeter role alongside Evans as Godwin moves back into the slot. Now, McMillan was largely a slot man in his last two years at Washington but lined up outside over 80% of the time in 2021.

We’ll see how he operates with an improved Baker Mayfield, who is coming off of his first career 4,000-yard season and career bests in completion rate (64.3%) and touchdowns (28).

#Bucs HC Todd Bowles on Jalen McMillan:

“He had a lot of versatility in college. He played slot, he played Z, he played X, so he’s a very intelligent player, so that gives us some advantages.”

This is very bullish for McMillan. Bowles classifies non-Evans/Godwin receivers as… pic.twitter.com/hrVMrnwDaT

— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) June 11, 2024

DJ Chark (LAC), WR87

Chark will turn 28 in the first month of the 2024 NFL season and could sneak right in as Justin Herbert’s best downfield option. Perception is down on Chark after he slogged through the 2023 Panther experience and some minor injuries.

The 6-foot-4 Chark still caught five of Bryce Young’s 11 passing TDs. That hurt to type, but it speaks to Chark’s go-and-get-it ability to muster that in a watered-down offense.

And now he gets a cannon-armed Herbert behind a robust offensive line that’ll give Chark time to operate downfield. The competition is Joshua Palmer, who has yet to stand out, and Quentin Johnston, who flopped as a rookie in ‘23. Ladd McConkey’s usage shouldn’t overlap with Chark’s route tree often. If health holds, who is to say that Chark isn’t Herbert’s new Mike Williams? Let’s find out.

Late-Round Fliers - Tight Ends

Chigoziem Okonkwo (TEN), TE23

Okonkwo has yet to see steady enough involvement to justify any significant draft pick, but the 2024 Titans are set to pass, pass, and pass. Will Levis is now surrounded by DeAndre Hopkins, Calvin Ridley, Tyler Boyd, and a pair of receiving RBs in Tony Pollard/Tyjae Spears. The initial reflex here is that there’s not much left for Okonkwo, but what if we re-frame it as a philosophical shift?

The age of Mike Vrabel and Derrick Henry pounding the rock is gone. New offensive coordinator Nick Holz comes from Jacksonville, where Trevor Lawrence was eighth in air yards and the Jags were top 10 in passing attempts and yards.

That’s neat, but he won’t be calling the plays. The new head coach, Brian Callahan, who comes from a Bengals team that let Joe Burrow sling it, will be. Zac Taylor chose the playcall in Cincy, but Callahan and Burrow put together the call sheet.

Back to Okonkwo, who often had snap counts above 60% and collected half of his 528 yards after the catch in 2023. It’s not his fault that TEN was a run-happy team. Did you know he was the No. 12 TE in team target share at 16.1%, earning a TE1-caliber piece of the pie?

But he only had six red-zone targets because who wouldn’t just give it to King Henry down there? Take a chance on the overall volume being the tide that lifts all ships, with Okonkwo being the overlooked one.

If Josh Whyle winds up siphoning routes run instead of just soaking up run-block assignments then we pivot. That's the beauty of fliers!

Colby Parkinson (LAR), TE31

Tyler Higbee suffered a torn ACL in the Rams’ Wild Card loss to the Lions, which imperils his early-season form. Parkinson has a 6-foot-7 frame with a career 73% catch rate in four Seattle seasons.

This isn’t about Parkinson being a hidden superstar, but his competition on the Rams is a rehabbing Higbee, Davis Allen, and Hunter Long. This is a Rams squad that loves its 11 personnel with a stellar top-three WR group but can still effectively run the ball.

Parkinson was PFF’s seventh-best run-blocking TE in 2023 (64.1) and a serviceable top-25 pass-blocker. This should help him earn reps out of the gate and have a chance to catch fire with Matthew Stafford’s slinging ways.

There’s reason to believe a 31-year-old Higbee will need much of the season to truly recover his full form, which gives Parkinson plenty of runway.

Everyone is asking the question why the hell did we sign Colby Parkinson?

- Run Blocking Machine
- Red Zone BIG THREAT (6ft 7')

McVay is going to work his magic to make his name known in the NFL pic.twitter.com/e4xzv3DOoK

— Rams HQ 🏙️ (@RAMSHQNFL) March 11, 2024

**Other options to consider are Denver's Greg Dulcich, New Orleans' Juwan Johnson, and Cincinnati's Mike Gesicki. Bully for you if your format still qualifies Taysom Hill as a TE too, because it seems they're going to use him everywhere this year!

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