X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

ADP Champ or Chump - Josh Hader and Arodys Vizcaino

David Emerick examines the fantasy baseball viability of relievers Josh Hader and Arodys Vizcaino for redraft leagues in 2019. Are they potential RP sleepers or draft day busts based on ADP?

Recent seasons have shown how a great relief corps can sometimes be a cheap and effective way to bolster a team. Moreover, the move to convert semi-viable starters to relief pitchers has increased the number of legitimately good relievers rather than hoping to luck into the good Joel Hanrahan (excellent for two years, unusable otherwise).

Josh Hader and Arodys Vizcaino represent two powerful arms in the reliever landscape. Hader sports a dynamic fastball and slider combination that made for one of the most effective pitch arsenals in all of baseball last year. Vizcaino throws his fastball at 98 MPH and complements it with an 86 MPH curve that is hard enough to double as a slider but still moves like a curveball. Currently, Hader and Vizcaino are separated by almost 100 picks: 103 and 202 respectively.

Despite the volatility of all relievers, both these players can be valuable assets to their team. The question is whether they can return that value at their current cost.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Josh Hader (RP, MIL) – ADP: 103

Other than the unfortunate airing of his teenaged tweets during the all-star game, Josh Hader had a downright amazing 2018 season. While this author does not condone the contents of those tweets, he is also more than familiar with both the language of hip hop and the myopic foolishness of adolescence. On that basis, we’ll omit further discussion of Hader’s Twitter account and focus on his 2.43 ERA, 2.23 FIP, 2.05 xFIP, 15.82 K/9, and .811 WHIP.

In some fantasy formats, that would be enough to make Josh Hader a strong candidate to draft as a top-80 player, and I could finish my article early. The raw numbers are arresting. Hader also had the audacity to round them out with 12 saves and 21 holds. Last, but certainly not least was his .229 xwOBA. Among pitchers who faced at least 250 batters, that was second to only Edwin Diaz.

Hader’s primary weapon is his four-seam fastball, which he throws at 95 MPH. The offering has about 10 inches of vertical movement and 5.5 inches of horizontal movement, making its trajectory similar to a sinker or two-seamer. Oddly enough, the spin-rate on Hader’s fastball (2,043 RPM) is a middle of the road for a four-seam fastball. Despite that, Hader’s fastball has been one of the most effective at producing both poor contact and swinging strikes both inside and outside the zone.

Hader’s secondary pitch is his slider with a 20% swinging-strike rate. Considering that most pitchers are simply looking to induce poor contact on their slider, Hader’s ability to generate whiffs is an exceptional advantage. The fact that Hader owns two pitches with swing-and-miss potential increases his margin of error and the likelihood that even if he struggles in one game or another, it's less likely that an offense will actually catch up to him.

The major drawback for drafting Josh Hader is the fact that he remains the setup man for Corey Knebel, who is an elite closer himself. Furthermore, even if Knebel were to struggle or become hurt this season, there’s no guarantee Hader would vulture saves because of the recently resurgent Jeremy Jeffress who has made changes in his approach that would make him the lockdown closer on all but a handful of other teams.

The context and specific draft position are critical for evaluating Hader’s value. For our purposes, let’s assume that Hader provides four wins, 110 strikeouts, 2.80 ERA, and 0.90 WHIP. If he becomes the closer or even part of a closer by committee and accrues 15 saves in 2019, he’ll probably miss his ADP of 103. If he takes control of the closer position, he’ll need 20 saves to return top-100 value. That's part of why the emergence of other top-tier relievers is so important. Players like Hector Neris or Dellin Betances reduce Hader's absolute value in a traditional format.

The caveat in all of this is for head-to-head leagues, deeper leagues, and leagues that value holds. In those situations, Hader’s value increases, and it is more likely that he will be worth his price. That's a fair number of exceptions. In Saves+Holds leagues, in particular, Hader projects as the second most valuable relief pitcher after Edwin Diaz, so knowing your exact format is critical in evaluating Hader.

Verdict: Fantasy Chump in standard 5x5 10-teamers; Fantasy Champ in most other formats (based on ADP of 103)

 

Arodys Vizcaino (RP, ATL) – ADP: 202

Vizcaino’s season was a bit bumpier than Hader’s. Despite coming in as the established closer with the role, the season started with whisperings about how long it would take Dan Winkler or A.J. Minter to claim the closer role in Atlanta.

However, Vizcaino finished the season with a 2.11 ERA, a 9.39 K/9 rate, a respectable 1.17 WHIP, and thoroughly entrenched in the closer’s seat. Unfortunately, Vizcaino’s season was a bit more tumultuous than the final results indicate. For starters, there was an injury that resulted in his temporarily losing the closer’s job, and Vizcaino was ineffective even after he returned. Worse, AJ Minter was as impressive as he’d been advertised.

What saved Vizcaino’s spot as the closer was that Minter did not always look comfortable in the ninth inning. Plus the Braves have the incentive to reduce Minter’s arbitration value by limiting his saves, and they envision him as their own version of the elite setup man.

To Vizcaino’s credit, he brings an elite fastball as well as a curve and changeup, which he can use to get swinging strikes. None of the three offerings are as effective as Hader’s, but Vizcaino doesn't need them to be. He still manages a strong Swinging-Strike rate (14.3%) and a K% (25.3%). The advanced ERA indicators will never love him because he allows too many walks and gets outs on contact. However, Vizcaino induces his share of poor contact (e.g., 10% career IFFB), explaining why his BABIP (.268) is unlikely to regress to all the way to league average (.293).

The biggest knock against Vizcaino is injury. He’s never managed to pitch more than 60 innings in the major leagues. Since 2015, his innings total has been 33.2, 38.2, 57.1, and 38.1, so he's likely to miss time. The question is whether the Braves become adept can become adept enough at managing his health that they can keep him on the field for more than 50 innings.

Having just sung a song of caution about Josh Hader, it feels dirty to write this, but Vizcaino is one of the few opportunities to buy a top-15 closer towards the end of the draft. Let’s be clear: this is not an ode of celebration for Arodys Vizcaino, who is quite talented. It’s a ballad of opportunism. There are a few closers available after pick 200, but aside from Drew Steckenrider, I don’t see any who are likely to hold their job as closer.

Verdict: Champ (based on ADP of 203)

More Fantasy Baseball ADP Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Quentin Johnston

Scores Twice in Brazil
Justin Herbert

Spectacular in Win Over Chiefs
Marquise Brown

Sees Absurd Target Share Friday
Bobby Witt Jr.

Exits Early on Friday
Xavier Worthy

Injures Shoulder Early in Brazil, Questionable to Return
Adolis García

Adolis Garcia Placed on Injured List With Quad Strain
Tyler Glasnow

Scratched on Friday With Back Tightness
Jayden Reed

Questionable to Play in Season Opener
Christian McCaffrey

Listed as Questionable for Season Opener With Calf Issue
Tyreek Hill

Cleared for Week 1
Rasmus Hojgaard

Finishes Tied For Second at Omega European Masters
Tyrrell Hatton

Finishes Tied for 32nd at LIV Indianapolis
Matt Fitzpatrick

Finishes Fifth at Omega European Masters
Patrick Cantlay

Finishes Tied For Second in 2025 FedEx Cup Standings
Xander Schauffele

Finishes 42nd in 2025 FedEx Cup Standings
Tyler Glasnow

Scratched From Friday's Start for Undisclosed Reasons
Christian Kirk

Ruled Out for Week 1
Shohei Ohtani

Returning to the Mound on Friday
Kyle Finnegan

Lands on Injured List With Adductor Strain
Aaron Judge

Returns to Right Field on Friday
De'Von Achane

Without Injury Designation Heading Into Week 1
Christian McCaffrey

Seen Working on Side Field During Friday's Practice
Malik Nabers

Cleared to Play on Sunday
Willson Contreras

' Suspension Reduced, to Start Serving it on Friday
Kodai Senga

Mets Send Kodai Senga to Triple-A to Get Right
Chris Godwin

Officially Ruled Out for Week 1
Malik Nabers

' Reps Limited Friday Due to "Tight" Back
Caio Borralho

Set For A Title Eliminator Bout
Nassourdine Imavov

Looks To Earn A Title Shot
Mauricio Ruffy

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Benoît Saint Denis

Benoit Saint Denis Set For UFC Paris Co-Main Event
Modestas Bukauskas

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Paul Craig

In Dire Need Of Victory
Mason Jones

Set for Main-Card Bout
Bolaji Oki

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Rhys McKee

Set To Open Up UFC Paris Main Card
Axel Sola

Set To Make His UFC Debut
Saquon Barkley

Scores Touchdown in Low-Yardage Outing
Jalen Hurts

Rushes for Two Touchdowns on Thursday
Javonte Williams

Salvages Inefficient Outing With Two Touchdowns
CeeDee Lamb

110-Yard Game Marred by Four Drops
Will Shipley

Questionable to Return on Thursday Night
Pablo López

Pablo Lopez Expected to Return on Friday
Micah Parsons

Expected to Play in Week 1
Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Exits With Knee Contusions
Christian McCaffrey

Listed as Limited With Calf Injury
Justin Jefferson

Not on Week 1 Injury Report
Will Smith

Unlikely to Play This Weekend
Shohei Ohtani

to Pitch on Monday
Jon Rahm

Looks to Prove His Importance on European Ryder Cup Team
Tommy Fleetwood

Among Leaders of European Ryder Cup Team
Brandon Sproat

to Start for Mets on Sunday
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Close to Triple-Double Versus Serbia
Nikola Jokić

Nikola Jokic Fills Box Score Against Turkey
Nikola Jović

Nikola Jovic Shakes Off Minor Injury
E.J. Liddell

Inks Two-Way Deal With Nets
NBA

Ben Simmons Reportedly Considering Retirement
P.J. Washington

Agrees to Four-Year, $90 Million Extension
Mike Trout

Plans to Return on Thursday
Will Smith

X-Rays Negative on Will Smith's Hand
Will Smith

Exits With Hand Contusion
Jackson Chourio

in Lineup Wednesday Despite Hamstring Cramps
Sepp Straka

Gets Captain's Pick to Join Team Europe
Christian Yelich

Dealing With Soreness in Lower Back
PGA

Victor Hovland to Make Third Ryder Cup Appearance for Team Europe
J.J. Spaun

Set to Represent Team USA for First Time at Bethpage
Russell Henley

Makes First Ryder Cup Appearance at Bethpage
Harris English

Named to Ryder Cup Team for Second Time
Kyle Finnegan

Dealing With Groin Issue
Shohei Ohtani

Will Pitch "Sometime This Weekend"
Justin Thomas

Making Fourth Ryder Cup Team Appearance at Bethpage
Ben Griffin

Making First Career Ryder Cup Appearance at Bethpage
Bryson DeChambeau

Set to be Part of Team USA at Bethpage
Santi Aldama

Bags Double-Double in Losing Effort
Guerschon Yabusele

Erupts for 36 Points Against Poland
Luka Dončić

Luka Doncic Leads Slovenia Into Next Round at EuroBasket
San Antonio Spurs

Stanley Umude Signs Training Camp Deal With Spurs
Reece Beekman

Joins Magic for Training Camp
Justin Minaya

Signs Exhibit 10 Deal With Magic
Alexandre Sarr

to Miss Rest of EuroBasket
Jared McCain

"On Pace" for Training Camp
Luke Hughes

Devils Optimistic About Signing Luke Hughes
Martin Fehérváry

Martin Fehervary on Track to Be Ready for Training Camp
Dylan Holloway

Good to Go for Start of Season
Josh Morrissey

Fully Healthy for Start of Season
Dennis Hildeby

Signs Three-Year Extension With Maple Leafs
Franz Wagner

Collects Double-Double in Blowout Win
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Achieves Rare Numbers at EuroBasket
Nikola Vučević

Nikola Vucevic Dominates Against Sweden
Kristaps Porzingis

Finding Form at EuroBasket
Nikola Jović

Nikola Jovic Suffers Minor Injury at EuroBasket
Victor Wembanyama

Looking "Quite Stellar"
Denny Hamlin

Ends Eventful Day at Darlington in Seventh Place
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Almost Earns a Top-Five Finish at Darlington
John Hunter Nemechek

has His Best 2025 Performance at Darlington
Ryan Blaney

Has An Underwhelming Performance At Darlington
Josh Berry

Crashes Early and Suffers A Playoff Setback at Darlington
Giannis Antetokounmpo

"Staying in Milwaukee"
Chase Elliott

Under Playoff Pressure After 17th-Place Darlington Finish
Kyle Larson

Despite Hendrick Mediocrity, Kyle Larson Remains Pretty Safe in Playoffs
Alex Bowman

Opening-Lap Crash and Botched Pit Stop May Have Sunk Alex Bowman's Playoff Hopes
Erik Jones

Darlington Master Erik Jones Comes Up Short but Still Finishes Third
AJ Allmendinger

A.J. Allmendinger Impresses at Southern 500
Daniel Suarez

is A DFS Risk for Darlington Lineups?
Noah Gragson

Should Fantasy Managers Roster Noah Gragson for Darlington?
Ty Dillon

is an Excellent Punt Option for Darlington DFS Lineups

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP