X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Pickups & Streamers
Rookies & Call-Ups
News and Alerts

ADP Champ or Chump - Josh Hader and Arodys Vizcaino

Recent seasons have shown how a great relief corps can sometimes be a cheap and effective way to bolster a team. Moreover, the move to convert semi-viable starters to relief pitchers has increased the number of legitimately good relievers rather than hoping to luck into the good Joel Hanrahan (excellent for two years, unusable otherwise).

Josh Hader and Arodys Vizcaino represent two powerful arms in the reliever landscape. Hader sports a dynamic fastball and slider combination that made for one of the most effective pitch arsenals in all of baseball last year. Vizcaino throws his fastball at 98 MPH and complements it with an 86 MPH curve that is hard enough to double as a slider but still moves like a curveball. Currently, Hader and Vizcaino are separated by almost 100 picks: 103 and 202 respectively.

Despite the volatility of all relievers, both these players can be valuable assets to their team. The question is whether they can return that value at their current cost.

Featured Promo: Get any full-season MLB and DFS Premium Pass for 50% off. Exclusive access to our Team Sync platform, Premium articles, daily Matchup Rating projections, 15 lineup tools, DFS cheat sheets, Research Stations, Lineup Optimizers and much more! Go Premium, Win More!

 

Josh Hader (RP, MIL) – ADP: 103

Other than the unfortunate airing of his teenaged tweets during the all-star game, Josh Hader had a downright amazing 2018 season. While this author does not condone the contents of those tweets, he is also more than familiar with both the language of hip hop and the myopic foolishness of adolescence. On that basis, we’ll omit further discussion of Hader’s Twitter account and focus on his 2.43 ERA, 2.23 FIP, 2.05 xFIP, 15.82 K/9, and .811 WHIP.

In some fantasy formats, that would be enough to make Josh Hader a strong candidate to draft as a top-80 player, and I could finish my article early. The raw numbers are arresting. Hader also had the audacity to round them out with 12 saves and 21 holds. Last, but certainly not least was his .229 xwOBA. Among pitchers who faced at least 250 batters, that was second to only Edwin Diaz.

Hader’s primary weapon is his four-seam fastball, which he throws at 95 MPH. The offering has about 10 inches of vertical movement and 5.5 inches of horizontal movement, making its trajectory similar to a sinker or two-seamer. Oddly enough, the spin-rate on Hader’s fastball (2,043 RPM) is a middle of the road for a four-seam fastball. Despite that, Hader’s fastball has been one of the most effective at producing both poor contact and swinging strikes both inside and outside the zone.

Hader’s secondary pitch is his slider with a 20% swinging-strike rate. Considering that most pitchers are simply looking to induce poor contact on their slider, Hader’s ability to generate whiffs is an exceptional advantage. The fact that Hader owns two pitches with swing-and-miss potential increases his margin of error and the likelihood that even if he struggles in one game or another, it's less likely that an offense will actually catch up to him.

The major drawback for drafting Josh Hader is the fact that he remains the setup man for Corey Knebel, who is an elite closer himself. Furthermore, even if Knebel were to struggle or become hurt this season, there’s no guarantee Hader would vulture saves because of the recently resurgent Jeremy Jeffress who has made changes in his approach that would make him the lockdown closer on all but a handful of other teams.

The context and specific draft position are critical for evaluating Hader’s value. For our purposes, let’s assume that Hader provides four wins, 110 strikeouts, 2.80 ERA, and 0.90 WHIP. If he becomes the closer or even part of a closer by committee and accrues 15 saves in 2019, he’ll probably miss his ADP of 103. If he takes control of the closer position, he’ll need 20 saves to return top-100 value. That's part of why the emergence of other top-tier relievers is so important. Players like Hector Neris or Dellin Betances reduce Hader's absolute value in a traditional format.

The caveat in all of this is for head-to-head leagues, deeper leagues, and leagues that value holds. In those situations, Hader’s value increases, and it is more likely that he will be worth his price. That's a fair number of exceptions. In Saves+Holds leagues, in particular, Hader projects as the second most valuable relief pitcher after Edwin Diaz, so knowing your exact format is critical in evaluating Hader.

Verdict: Fantasy Chump in standard 5x5 10-teamers; Fantasy Champ in most other formats (based on ADP of 103)

 

Arodys Vizcaino (RP, ATL) – ADP: 202

Vizcaino’s season was a bit bumpier than Hader’s. Despite coming in as the established closer with the role, the season started with whisperings about how long it would take Dan Winkler or A.J. Minter to claim the closer role in Atlanta.

However, Vizcaino finished the season with a 2.11 ERA, a 9.39 K/9 rate, a respectable 1.17 WHIP, and thoroughly entrenched in the closer’s seat. Unfortunately, Vizcaino’s season was a bit more tumultuous than the final results indicate. For starters, there was an injury that resulted in his temporarily losing the closer’s job, and Vizcaino was ineffective even after he returned. Worse, AJ Minter was as impressive as he’d been advertised.

What saved Vizcaino’s spot as the closer was that Minter did not always look comfortable in the ninth inning. Plus the Braves have the incentive to reduce Minter’s arbitration value by limiting his saves, and they envision him as their own version of the elite setup man.

To Vizcaino’s credit, he brings an elite fastball as well as a curve and changeup, which he can use to get swinging strikes. None of the three offerings are as effective as Hader’s, but Vizcaino doesn't need them to be. He still manages a strong Swinging-Strike rate (14.3%) and a K% (25.3%). The advanced ERA indicators will never love him because he allows too many walks and gets outs on contact. However, Vizcaino induces his share of poor contact (e.g., 10% career IFFB), explaining why his BABIP (.268) is unlikely to regress to all the way to league average (.293).

The biggest knock against Vizcaino is injury. He’s never managed to pitch more than 60 innings in the major leagues. Since 2015, his innings total has been 33.2, 38.2, 57.1, and 38.1, so he's likely to miss time. The question is whether the Braves become adept can become adept enough at managing his health that they can keep him on the field for more than 50 innings.

Having just sung a song of caution about Josh Hader, it feels dirty to write this, but Vizcaino is one of the few opportunities to buy a top-15 closer towards the end of the draft. Let’s be clear: this is not an ode of celebration for Arodys Vizcaino, who is quite talented. It’s a ballad of opportunism. There are a few closers available after pick 200, but aside from Drew Steckenrider, I don’t see any who are likely to hold their job as closer.

Verdict: Champ (based on ADP of 203)




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Pickups & Streamers
Rookies & Call-Ups
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jorge LĂłpez7 hours ago

Jorge Lopez Agrees To One-Year Deal With Mets
Diontae Johnson7 hours ago

Scores Again In Week 14 Loss
Ezekiel Elliott8 hours ago

Dominant While Earning 29 Touches
D'Onta Foreman8 hours ago

Practices In Full Again
Hunter Henry8 hours ago

Scores Two Touchdowns In Week 14
Bailey Zappe8 hours ago

Throws For Three Touchdowns In Week 14 Win
Harrison Bader9 hours ago

Giants, Padres Interested In Harrison Bader
Justin Jefferson10 hours ago

Gets In Another Full Practice
Ha-Seong Kim10 hours ago

Red Sox Interested In Ha-Seong Kim?
Pete Alonso10 hours ago

Mets, Pete Alonso Haven't Talked Extension
Kareem Hunt10 hours ago

Gets In Limited Practice Session
Juan Soto10 hours ago

Yankees Haven't Had Extension Talks With Juan Soto
Aaron Judge10 hours ago

Toe Injury "A Resolved Issue"
Jamal Murray10 hours ago

Considered Probable For Friday
LeBron James10 hours ago

To Play On Thursday
Malcolm Brogdon11 hours ago

Questionable For Friday's Game
Deandre Ayton11 hours ago

Unlikely To Suit Up Friday
Jalen Duren11 hours ago

Will Miss Next Two Weeks
Jordan Clarkson11 hours ago

Questionable For Friday
Raheem Mostert11 hours ago

Sits Out On Thursday
Tyreek Hill11 hours ago

Picks Up DNP In First Practice
Geno Smith12 hours ago

Added To Injury Report With Groin Issue
Zach Charbonnet12 hours ago

Kenneth Walker III, Zach Charbonnet Limited Thursday
Tyler Higbee12 hours ago

In Danger Of Missing Week 14
Puka Nacua12 hours ago

Practices Without Limitations Thursday
DeVante Parker12 hours ago

Ruled Out, JuJu Smith-Schuster Active Thursday
Najee Harris12 hours ago

Officially Active Thursday Night
Markelle Fultz12 hours ago

Wendell Carter Jr., Markelle Fultz Remain Out Friday
Mark Williams12 hours ago

Listed As Questionable Friday
Trae Young12 hours ago

Uncertain For Friday With Illness
Taysom Hill12 hours ago

Absent Again On Thursday
Jalen Duren13 hours ago

Out With Ankle Sprain Friday
Chris Olave13 hours ago

Rashid Shaheed Miss Thursday's Practice
Derek Carr13 hours ago

Practices Again Thursday
Tyler Herro13 hours ago

No Return For Tyler Herro Against Cavaliers
Lauri Markkanen13 hours ago

Back At Thursday's Practice
Kristaps Porzingis13 hours ago

Likely To Return Against Knicks
Bam Adebayo13 hours ago

Still Out With Bruised Hip
Dalton Schultz13 hours ago

Downgraded At Thursday's Practice
Bradley Beal13 hours ago

Grayson Allen Out Friday
Dallas Goedert14 hours ago

Another Full Practice For Dallas Goedert
Derrick Henry14 hours ago

Should Be Good To Go For Week 14
Kevin Durant15 hours ago

Sitting Out Against Kings
Malcolm Brogdon16 hours ago

Held Scoreless Before Departing
Jalen Duren16 hours ago

Reaches Double-Double Before Exiting
Zach LaVine16 hours ago

Gets PRP Injection Amid Recovery
Jordan Hicks17 hours ago

Being Eyed By Yankees
Evgeny Kuznetsov20 hours ago

Expected To Return To Lineup Thursday
DET20 hours ago

Patrick Kane Ready For Red Wings Debut On Thursday
Zach Hyman20 hours ago

Stays Hot With Second Hat Trick
Nick Senzel20 hours ago

Heads To Nationals
Evan Rodrigues20 hours ago

Matches Career High With Four Points
Jeimer Candelario20 hours ago

Reds Agree With Jeimer Candelario
Victor Hedman21 hours ago

Notches Two Assists Wednesday
John Klingberg21 hours ago

Out For Season
Luka Doncic21 hours ago

Rolls To 40-Point Triple-Double
Joel Embiid21 hours ago

Feasts Against The Wizards
San Diego Padres1 day ago

Jung Hoo Lee High On Padres' Wish List
Eduardo Rodriguez1 day ago

Agrees To Four-Year Deal With Diamondbacks
Kyle Higashioka1 day ago

Padres Acquire Michael King, Kyle Higashioka, Others From Yankees
Trent Grisham1 day ago

Yankees Complete Trade To Acquire Juan Soto, Trent Grisham
Eduardo Rodriguez1 day ago

Diamondbacks Are Finalists To Land Eduardo Rodriguez
Dylan Cease1 day ago

White Sox "Pulling Back" On Dylan Cease Trade Talks?
Aaron Judge2 days ago

Could Be Regular Center Fielder
New York Yankees2 days ago

Yoshinobu Yamamoto Expected To Meet With Yankees Monday
Dylan Cease2 days ago

White Sox Have High Asking Price For Dylan Cease
Trent Grisham2 days ago

Expected To Be Shipped To Yankees
Bryce Harper2 days ago

Hoping To Discuss Another Long-Term Deal
Craig Kimbrel2 days ago

Orioles Agree To One-Year Deal
Nathan MacKinnon2 days ago

Extends Scoring Streak With Three-Point Effort
Tomas Hertl2 days ago

Posts Sixth Career Hat Trick
Vladimir Tarasenko2 days ago

Shines In Win Over Rangers
J.T. Miller2 days ago

Grabs Three Points In Loss Versus New Jersey
Jack Hughes2 days ago

Continues Tear Versus Canucks
Matt Boldy2 days ago

Notches Three Points In Tuesday's Win
Connor Ingram3 days ago

Takes Winning Streak To Five Games With Second Shutout
Clayton Keller3 days ago

Records Hat Trick Of Assists
Travis Konecny3 days ago

Logs Two Assists In Monday's Win
Anthony Cirelli3 days ago

Nets Two Goals As Tampa Bay Ends Slide
Andrei Vasilevskiy3 days ago

Bounces Back In Style On Monday
Nikolaj Ehlers3 days ago

Takes Down Hurricanes
Beneil Dariush4 days ago

Suffers First-Round Knockout Loss At UFC Austin
Beneil Dariush4 days ago

Arman Tsarukyan Knocks Out Beneil Dariush In 64 Seconds
Jalin Turner4 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Bobby Green4 days ago

Gets Knocked Out In The First Round
Punahele Soriano4 days ago

Dustin Stoltzfus Submits Punahele Soriano
Punahele Soriano4 days ago

Loses Back-To-Back Fights
Nathan MacKinnon4 days ago

Pushes Point Streak To Eight Games
Quinton Byfield4 days ago

Pots Two Goals Against Colorado
Alex Tuch4 days ago

Exits With Injury
Clay Guida5 days ago

Falls To .500 In The UFC
Joaquim Silva5 days ago

Gets Decision Win At UFC Austin
Kelvin Gastelum5 days ago

Submitted In Welterweight Return
Sean Brady5 days ago

Returns To Win Column
Rob Font5 days ago

1-4 In Last Five Fights After Loss At UFC Austin
Deiveson Figueiredo5 days ago

Wins Bantamweight Debut

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
C.J. Stroud - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Fantasy Football Warning Signals for Week 14: C.J. Stroud, Tony Pollard, and Calvin Ridley

Week 14 of the fantasy football season is underway and while we may have drafted certain players at a premium, it is okay to consider benching them despite their name value. We often hear the phrase "start your studs" and it is a tried and true method, especially earlier in the season. When injuries, tough... Read More


Fantasy Football Start 'Em, Sit 'Em - Week 14 Matchups Analysis

Welcome back RotoBallers to our Week 14 matchups analysis and Start Em, Sit Em column for fantasy football. Last week knocked out more starting quarterbacks, headlined by Trevor Lawrence. The constant roulette at the position across the NFL makes it difficult to project how an offense will perform. That's not ending this week either because there... Read More


Brandin Cooks - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

The King's Week 14 Lineup Rankings and Analysis (Premium Content)

Scott "The King" Engel issues his full Week 14 lineup rankings in PPR, Half-PPR, and Standard formats. He also includes insights on key players at each position, with chunks of relevant statistical indicators. Regular starting options are also included in the statistical highlights to show how well your best players might be performing. Much of... Read More


Lamar Jackson - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Fantasy Football Injury Reports For Week 14 (Thursday Updates): Lamar Jackson, Aaron Jones, Isiah Pacheco, Trevor Lawrence, Christian Watson, Breece Hall, and more

The 2023 NFL continues racing along with Week 14 ready to get underway with the Patriots vs. Steelers on Thursday Night Football, fantasy managers are busy tracking injuries to their key fantasy studs. We have the latest notable injury updates as of Thursday, December 7, 2023. Fantasy football assets such as Aaron Jones, Isiah Pacheco,... Read More


Darren Waller - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Fantasy Football Late-Season Heroes Returning From Injury

At this point in the NFL season, there aren't too many players out there on the injured reserve who stand to return this season and make an impact. It's already December and there's just not a ton of football left to be played. However, there are a few players who should return down the stretch... Read More


Diontae Johnson - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Patriots vs. Steelers TNF Start 'Em, Sit 'Em - Ezekiel Elliott, Demario Douglas, Najee Harris, Jaylen Warren, Diontae Johnson, and More

If the last three Thursdays have been the first three courses of some fantasy fine dining, Week 14's matchup between the New England Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers is the unappetizing platter to finish off the meal. After Bengals-Ravens, Thanksgiving, and then the epic Seattle-Dallas bonanza last week, this week we get Bailey Zappe vs. Mitch... Read More


DeVon Achane - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL DFS Picks, Injury News

Rest of Season Half-PPR Rankings: Fantasy Football Top 200 for Week 14

Fantasy football playoffs are right around the corner and it is time to take stock of your FF pantry. Let us assist you in constructing a championship battle plan with our Week 14 fantasy football half-PPR rankings for the rest of 2023, as of December 7. Check where key players shifted, such as Kyren Williams,... Read More


Joshua Dobbs - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Sneaky Starts, Pivot Plays, and Post-Waiver Pickups for Week 14 - Joshua Dobbs, Keaton Mitchell, Isaiah Likely, DeeJay Dallas

It’s the final week of the fantasy football regular season. I cannot believe I am typing those words already. The weeks have flown by, but that means it's been a very fun season. Thank you for reading my work and supporting RotoBaller all season long!  If you are still reading this, it means you are... Read More


Dalton Kincaid - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Is Dalton Kincaid the Next Travis Kelce?

If you're a fan of the NFL, you know that Travis Kelce is a beast. He's not only the best tight end in the league, but he might also be the best to ever play the position. His size, speed, route-running, and hands are a nightmare matchup for any defense. He's also a leader and... Read More


Minnesota Vikings Defense D/ST Streamers, Rankings, Waiver Wire - Danielle Hunter Fantasy Football IDP

Top Fantasy Football D/ST Rankings (Weeks 14, 15, 16, 17) - Defense Streamers and Starts

At this point in the season, streaming defenses in fantasy could be the difference in a playoff victory or not. If you still need to win in Week 14, prioritize a D/ST pickup for this weekend.  Despite the Cowboys and Ravens ranking as the top two fantasy defenses through 13 weeks, they have some tough... Read More


Cooper Kupp - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Updated Fantasy Football Staff Rankings

      Fantasy Football Rankings by NFL Position ALL - QB - RB - WR - TE - DEF Above you will find all of RotoBaller's fantasy football rankings, tiers, player news and stats for your 2023 fantasy football leagues. Our Ranking Wizard displays our staff's fantasy football rankings for various league formats, all in one easy place. Here's what you'll find: Fantasy Football... Read More


CeeDee Lamb - Fantasy Football Rankings, DFS and Betting Picks, NFL Injury News

WR/CB Matchups to Target and Downgrade - Week 14 (2023)

Welcome to Week 14 of the WR/CB Matchups article. For those who are not familiar, this is a weekly series looking at fantasy football matchups for wide receivers versus the cornerbacks who are projected to cover them. During the past three seasons, I have tweaked my process to make the chart more user-friendly and predictive,... Read More


CeeDee Lamb - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Targets, NFL Injury News

Wide Receiver Sleepers, Risers, Breakouts for Fantasy Football - Targets, Air Yards, Snaps Trends for Week 14

You are already aware that wide receivers will play a critical role in the success of your fantasy football teams. The undeniable volatility that exists with the running back position has also presented an increasing rationale for prioritizing wide receivers when you build your rosters -- both at the onset of your drafts and as... Read More