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This year, more than 30 million people will bet on the Super Bowl. The total amount that will be bet is estimated at close to $8 billion, according to the American Gaming Association.
Betting on the outcome can be a fun way to get yourself in on the game and test your predicting ability, but for first-time bettors, it can feel a little bit confusing.
There are dozens of betting websites competing for your attention. There’s a whole new language and mathematics to learn. Where do you even start?
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Betting Against the Spread
The two main kinds of bets you can place on game results are betting against the spread and betting on the moneyline. Betting against the spread trying to pick the margin by which a team will win or lose. As I write this, the Philadelphia Eagles are 1.5-point favorites (PHI -1.5) to beat the Kansas City Chiefs in the Super Bowl. That means that if you bet on the Eagles, they must win by two points or more in order for you to win the bet. You can bet on the Chiefs, and if they either win or lose by just one point, you will win.
The favorite is denoted with a minus in front of the expected margin. So with Philly being 1.5-point favorites, the line is PHI -1.5. It is common to see teams favored by a number ending in a half point (also known as “the hook”) in order to prevent bets from pushing.
Think of it like this: 1.5 points are going to be subtracted from Philadelphia’s point total. If the Eagles win by two, you subtract 1.5 from 2, and the Eagles are still in positive territory, meaning they covered the spread.
The underdog is KC +1.5 because 1.5 points will be added to their total. If Kansas City loses by one, then you add 1, and KC covers the spread.
Understanding Odds in Point Spread Bets
The spread is set by bookmakers with the goal that both sides have a 50% chance of occurring (or that both sides will attract 50% of bettors’ money). Despite this, the payout on both sides is not 50-50. In fact, the winnings will only be 47.6% of the payout.
The odds for either side of the bet are -110, which means for every $110 you bet, you will make $100 in winnings and get back $210 total (the stake plus the winnings) if you win. However, the bookmaker will keep all $110 if you lose. That extra $10 built-in commission the bookmaker keeps from losers is called the vigorish (vig) or the juice, and it is the primary way most bookies make a profit. The vig on a standard point spread bet is about 4.8% (10/210), so you must win more than 52.4% of your even-line game bets to make a profit after accounting for the vig.
When betting on the spread, the odds (and hence the payout) for both sides of the spread are equal for both teams in all games, but the necessary win margin is different.
Betting the Moneyline
When betting on the moneyline, the spread is equal for both teams (0), but the odds are different. You just need to pick the winner—by any margin. Unlike betting on the spread, the probability of each team winning is not 50%. If you bet the Chiefs over the Broncos, for example, you won’t get paid as much in winnings as if you bet on the Broncos and the Broncos somehow pull the upset.
For the Super Bowl, the betting market perceives the Eagles as the slight favorite, so the moneyline odds are PHI -123 and KC +103. As with betting on the spread, the favorite is indicated with a minus sign, and the underdog is indicated with a plus sign. The number for the favorite (PHI -123) means the bookie will pay you $100 in winnings for every $123 you bet if Philly wins. The number for the underdog (KC +103) means you only have to bet $100 in order for the bookie to pay you $103 in winnings if the Chiefs win. The numerator and denominator flip.
Implied Odds and Expected Value
To think of it in terms of winning probabilities, you can calculate the implied odds of one side winning by dividing the stake by the total payout. For favorites, you strip away the minus sign and take the absolute value of the odds as the numerator and divide it by the total winning payout. The equation looks like this: Negative Odds / (Negative Odd + 100). In the case of the Eagles, it is 123 / (123 +100) = 0.552 = 55.2%.
The Eagles are priced as having a 55.2% chance of winning. If you think their chances are much greater than 55%, then they could be a good bet. It would have a positive expected value.
If you think the game is leaning Eagles but closer to 50-50, then avoid this sucker bet. You’ll lose money in the long term taking teams at odds with implied probabilities less than their true probabilities.
To calculate the implied odds for the underdog, the formula is flipped: 100 / (Positive Odds + 100). That means KC +103 is 100 / (103 + 100) = 49.2%. You can do these equations automatically with online betting odds calculators.
The Vig in the Moneyline
You might notice that the implied odds of both teams combined are over 100%. They are priced as having a 104.4% chance of either team winning. The extra 4.4% is the vig, the bookmaker’s profit. Hence, the price of betting on one or both teams must be more expensive than the true value.
The lines will change as news comes out and bettors put money on one side or the other. And the lines could be slightly different at one bookie or another, but they generally follow pretty closely because if there is a large discrepancy between books, the bookmaker with the most profitable line (for bettors) is going to get hammered and lose money.
Over/Under and Other Bets
You can bet on all kinds of factors about a game. The next most popular bet is on the total amount of points scored. Will the Super Bowl go over or under 49.5? That is the current line. It is relatively high because both teams have high-powered offenses. But bettors have a tendency to exaggerate the likelihood of the game score going over—probably because most people overvalue the impact of offense and personally want to see a high-scoring game.
In fact, most games went under in 2022. There were only five teams (including the Eagles) for which the games they were involved went over the expected total more than 52.4% of the time. (Over-under bets are priced at -110 odds, so 52.4% is the magic break-even number.)
You can also bet over or under on same game props. (Will Patrick Mahomes throw for over 284.5 yards?) You can bet on the first half score or first-quarter score. You can bet on who will score the first touchdown or even who will win the coin toss. The odds for the props and exotic bets are different than the more traditional bets, and the vig is often higher.
There are more varieties of bets than that, but these are the basics.
Which Bookmaker Should I Choose?
Now that you have learned some basics of betting on NFL games, how do you know which betting platform to sign up for?
It depends on what state you are in. Not all bookmakers are available in all states. But FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, and Caesars are available in most states. FanDuel leads the market with about 47% of the share, while DraftKings has 20%.
Each website offers somewhat different bets and daily fantasy games. Many offer sign-up bonuses. Common sign-up bonuses include “risk-free bets,” which let you place multiple bets worth the stake if you lose the first bet, and free betting credits with new deposits of a certain value.
It may be best to start on one platform first to simply get the hang of betting, but when you get really into it, you might want to join multiple platforms so that you can take advantage of small differences in odds across platforms.
I hope this helps you enjoy the fun of betting on the NFL! While the season will be over soon, that doesn’t mean betting action is on hiatus. You can still bet on the NFL Draft and get early picks in on the division winners and Super Bowl winner for 2024.
