MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (3/30/2026)

March 30, 2026

Jamie's best MLB player prop bets for today (3/30/2026). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Bobby Witt Jr., Munetaka Murakami, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

The first scoring period is in the books! Did you make any money off the previous RotoBaller articles, because some of our picks hit nicely in this first week? I profited from TWO days of Munetaka Murakami homer props, which was a solid beginning to the bankroll (spoiler alert - you'll find him in this article as well!).

HR props are always a bit more difficult early on, and it'll help when we have a bit more 2026 data to go on. That said, we have some unseasonably warm games on tap for today, and the wind is going to play a huge factor in some of these parks as well. Use that extra advantage in your betting and also stacking in DFS.

Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Monday, March 30, 2026. The current odds given reflect the best price as of the publication, but remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary significantly from one sportsbook to another.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (3/30/2026)

Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Monday, March 30.

Bobby Witt Jr. OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+325 TheScore)

The Royals seem to be in a prime spot to succeed this afternoon. They're sporting an IRT (implied run total) of 5.5 runs, which is the highest of any squad going today. The forecast in Kansas City looks prime for hitting, with a projected temperature of over 90 degrees with winds surging out to left-center at 20 MPH.

Minnesota sends Simeon Woods Richardson (no hyphens) to the bump today to try and navigate the heat and wind, and he could be in for a world of hurt against some of the Royals' hitters. This goes for the righties even more, as Woods Richardson is a reverse-split pitcher who struggles with same-handed hitting (especially for power).

The Twins' righty allowed a 46.8% HHR, 15.4% barrel rate, and .183 ISO to RHB last season, and Bobby Witt's 15.3% barrel rate against righties was the third-best on his team last season (and the best for right-handed bats). Witt has yet to go yard this season after KC lost the opening series to the Braves, and it looks like a solid bet to get his first this evening in these conditions.

“I don't think there's a player in the game who can impact their team more this season than Bobby Witt Jr.”

- @CY24_7 on #MLBTonight pic.twitter.com/piKQ4c9r2N

— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) March 29, 2026

Munetaka Murakami OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+480 FanDuel)

The White Sox made some eye-opening moves this offseason to at least produce some hope for their fans, so it had to have been pretty discouraging to be swept by the Brewers in their opening series. However, Pale Hose fans still had something to cheer about, and Japanese superstar Murakami went yard in ALL THREE GAMES of the series to begin his career.

THREE MLB GAMES
THREE HOME RUNS

Munetaka Murakami is blasting baseballs to start his MLB career 😤 pic.twitter.com/Gnprk793bO

— MLB (@MLB) March 29, 2026

Now, I understand that betting this means you're banking on a fourth straight day, which has only happened once before in MLB history (that crown belongs to Trevor Story, who began his career that way for the Rockies back in 2016). I'm into it, though. Murakami has already moved up to a prime hitting spot for Chicago (why wouldn't he?), and has a good shot at five plate appearances on the road in Miami.

The Marlins will have Chris Paddack on the hill, who was a touted prospect but has been derailed by injuries much of his career. He has always struggled against lefties, and that was no different in 2025 as he allowed a .237 ISO and 1.99 HR/9 to LHB. The White Sox lineup is pretty questionable if you look at it from top to bottom, but the prospects at least give their fans something to scream about. Let's go four games in a row for big M.M.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+350 TheScore)

When the Rockies signed Tomoyuki Sugano, I was practically salivating over the prospect of stacking against him in DFS when the time came. That dream becomes a reality tonight, even though his first start is not in Coors Field (can you imagine the Dodgers' lineup against him in Coors when the time comes??). Sugano will go against former AL East rival Toronto, against whom he held his own as a Baltimore pitcher.

Sugano was a launching pad in 2025, however, allowing 1.9 HR/9 and a .206 ISO on the season. He limited hard contact to righties a bit more than he did lefties, but his 15.3% K rate against them still leaves a lot to be desired. Guerrero has made a career out of lambasting same-handed pitching, and 2025 was no different.

Last season, 23 of Vladdy's 31 homers came against righties, and he posted a respectable .858 OPS and 13.8% barrel rate against them as well. Colorado once again projects to have a bottom-five bullpen in both FIP and ISO allowed, so we get nine innings of upside here. Toronto's IRT is currently at five runs, and I expect it to rise.

Maikel Garcia OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+600 Hard Rock)

I almost went with a second rookie in Chase DeLauter here (holy cow, that guy), but I'm double-dipping on the Royals instead (and may even throw Garcia and Witt together in a single-game parlay). Garcia is not the power threat that some of his teammates are, but the strides he took last season are mighty encouraging in that department.

Garcia elevated his ISO from a .101 in 2024 to a .162 mark in 2025, and his 16 homers more than doubled his previous career-high. Garcia cut his K rate down to a meager 12.2% last year as well, meaning he's seeing the ball incredibly well. His reward is the Royals entrenching him as their leadoff hitter.

Garcia will face the same favorable hitting conditions as mentioned in Witt's blurb above, and hitting leadoff gives him upside for additional plate appearances (and shots at the left-field wall). I don't mind taking shots on the higher-hanging fruit like this, and even going multiple Royals for the HR bets.

Longshot: Carlos Santana OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+670 DraftKings)

I'm clearly traumatized, as the first thing I thought when I saw Carlos Santana's DraftKings odds was "six-seven". Sigh. Anyway, this is a really fun longshot play of one of the oldest hitters in the game facing one of the oldest pitchers (Justin Verlander makes his return to the Detroit mound tonight).

I'm not generally a BvP (batter vs pitcher) guy, but this one made me notice it enough to write about it. Santana and Verlander have been in the league (and often the same division) for so long that they've faced each other 98 times. While people will often misread BvP due to small sample sizes, 98 plate appearances is a legitimately large enough number to draw tangible data from.

Santana has 19 hits in 86 at-bats against Verlander (12 walks as well). That number is good for only a .221 batting average, but not so fast. 14 of those 19 hits have been of the extra-base variety, and nine of them are home runs. This is clear data that Santana sees the ball well from Verlander, as is also evidenced by his 12:19 BB:K ratio.

Neither player is nearly what he used to be at his peak powers, but I have no problem throwing $5-10 on a fun longshot like this. Arizona is desperate for its first win as well, so maybe it's the veteran who puts the team on his back tonight. (Angels in the Outfield - "Hey, it could happen").

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