X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

How to Approach Rookies in Re-Draft for Success

Rookies can be unpredictable draft assets in fantasy baseball. Chris O'Reilly advises fantasy owners how to approach rookies and prospects successfully in 2019 drafts with some simple rules.

With the NFL season officially a thing of the past, we can now turn our undivided fantasy attention to preparing for our baseball drafts. We are still waiting on the answers to a few key questions (such as, I don't know, where Bryce Harper and Manny Machado might play their home games?), but we have enough information at hand to formulate the bulk of our draft strategies for 2019.

We know to target multi-category stars in the first few rounds. We know which positions are deep enough to wait on, and which ones we should try to lock down early. We know how volatile bullpens can be, especially in this day and age, and that spending high picks on closers doesn't always pan out.

But what about the players we have only seen sparingly on a Major League diamond, or not at all? Rookies can be tricky for a multitude of reasons in re-draft leagues, but fear not. I've devised a road map for how to go about acquiring and deploying them on your rosters, starting with how they fit into your draft plan and ending (hopefully) with a league championship.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Know Your Prospects

The first thing you'll want to do is take some time to familiarize yourself with the top prospects in baseball. There are endless resources available on the world-wide web, including a great deal of prospect research right here at RotoBaller. A fine place to start is with our Top 100 prospect list.

Take note of one thing in particular regarding any MLB prospect: his estimated arrival date at the big league level. If a player is expected to make his MLB debut in 2019, follow him closely throughout spring training to see if he is trending toward an early-season (or even Opening Day) roster spot. Players who put forth an impressive effort in spring ball are the ones you want to consider on draft day. If a highly-regarded prospect struggles during the spring, however, he may be sent back down to Triple-A to work on his game before being called up during the summer. In this case, you may want to hold off until the very last rounds of your draft before spending a pick on a player in the minors.

Or, you can simply file away a few names to follow early in the season and track their progress at the minor league level. If at any point a promotion appears imminent for a given player, don't hesitate to pick him up a couple days early. It pays to keep an eye on these developments in order to give yourself an advantage over the other owners in your fantasy league.

 

Know the Organization

Another crucial aspect of dealing with rookies, particularly in re-draft leagues, is understanding the team they're eventually going to suit up for in the Majors.

It is entirely plausible that a prospect's primary position is already occupied by a quality player at the big league level. As a result, he may see time at a different position, or shuffle around the diamond altogether at the behest of the manager. Case in point: Nick Senzel of the Cincinnati Reds.

Senzel is a third baseman by trade, but Eugenio Suarez is already firmly entrenched at the position in Cincinnati. An outfield experiment seems logical then, but keep in mind that the Reds added Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp to an outfield already inhabited by Jesse Winker and Scott Schebler. Despite being a top-10 prospect believed to be prepared for the highest level, there is no ready-made path to consistent playing time for Senzel. Until we get a clearer picture of how the Reds plan to utilize him, his fantasy value takes a hit in re-draft leagues.

This is, of course, just one example, but the point remains: whether you're at your draft or browsing the in-season waiver wire, take into account the potential role a rookie will have on his respective team once called up before you acquire him.

 

Beware of Starting Pitchers

In 2018, 13 rookies recorded 100 or more innings pitched. Of those 13, six recorded 120 or more strikeouts. Of those six, three recorded an ERA below 4.00. Among starting pitchers league-wide, 120 strikeouts would have been good for the 86th-highest total, and a 4.00 ERA would have tied for 128th.

Using the same thresholds, in 2017 there were 12 rookie pitchers who accumulated 100 or more innings, four of whom recorded 120 or more strikeouts. Only one finished with an ERA below 4.00. A 120-strikeout season in 2017 would have tied for 85th, and a 4.00 ERA would have fallen in 86th.

The point here is that while it's become somewhat common to see rookie position players work their way into the upper echelons of production, rookie pitchers tend to have considerably more ups and downs. As such, you're going to deal with some turbulence if you choose to roster any.

Additionally, here's something to keep in mind if you play in a head-to-head league: everyday players give you the opportunity for fantasy production several days a week and thus can atone for a bad performance here and there. Starting pitchers, on the other hand, give you two outings a week at most. One or two disastrous starts from a couple of rookies could mean the difference between winning or losing your weekly matchup.

Now, fantasy baseball leagues come in all different shapes and sizes, and maybe you play in a deep league or have a few extra bench spots. In this case, feel free to stash a rookie pitcher or two and hope for a return on your investment. In most 10 or 12-team leagues with standard roster sizes, however, it's best to tread carefully with rookie starting pitchers, as opposed to selling out in the hope you'll strike gold with the next Walker Buehler.

 

Maintain Patience

This is easier said than done thanks to guys like Mike Trout, but it pays to remember a simple fact when dealing with rookies in fantasy baseball: not every prospect is immediately going to blossom into the second coming of Willie Mays, and that's okay.

Consider this: in Ronald Acuna's first full month of playing time (May) in 2018, he hit .235 and struck out more times than he reached base. Then he got hurt, missed most of June, and put up half-decent numbers across 22 games in July. It wasn't until August that he truly broke out with a .336/.405/.698 slash line that included 11 home runs, 21 RBI and 25 runs scored.

If you're the owner who spent a draft pick on a highly-touted prospect like Acuna, don't give up on account of a rough first month or two. Baseball season is a long and winding road, and even if a young player isn't helping you early on, he can still play a vital role in your quest for a title down the stretch.

Conversely, if you notice a development like this elsewhere in your league, don't be afraid to exploit it. If an impatient league mate is growing frustrated with the performance (or lack thereof) of a rookie, try to acquire the player in a buy-low deal. Acuna's 19 post-All Star break home runs in 2018 (good for fourth in the entire league) would have been well worth sending away a couple mid-tier veterans early in the season.

 

Finding Hidden Gems

So we've established that it pays to monitor the progress of highly-regarded prospects in spring training and early in the regular season. We've also discussed exercising patience with these youngsters once we acquire them, whether it be through the draft, free agency or a trade. This is all well and good for high-profile players, but what about the ones flying under the radar? Not every prospect is going to arrive at The Show on a hype train.

While the baseball community swooned over Acuna, Juan Soto and Gleyber Torres in 2018, there were plenty of other rookie position players who made an impact at various points throughout the season.

Willy Adames of the Rays posted the highest batting average among shortstops with 200 plate appearances after the All-Star break. Daniel Palka of the White Sox tied Miguel Andujar for the rookie lead in home runs despite recording 156 fewer at-bats. Miami's Brian Anderson crossed the plate 87 times, good for 18th among all outfielders league-wide. If you're not paying attention, you're going to miss the boat on guys like these.

And so my last bit of advice is simple: don't get complacent. Everyone in your league is going to be looking for the next Acuna, the next Soto, the next Torres. Maybe you'll beat your league mates to the punch on guys like those, and you'll be well off because of it. But if you want to separate yourself from your adversaries, you have to be the owner in your league who knows to look for the next Adames, Palka or Anderson as well.

By now, I hope you feel well-prepared for this aspect of your fantasy baseball season and confident that you're going to make the right calls when the time comes. Just remember to put in the preparation, have some faith in yourself, and be sure to check back here at RotoBaller as draft season gets into full swing for updates on prospects around the league.

More 2019 Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Corey Heim

Does Not Qualify for Cup Race at Chicago Street Course
LaJohntay Wester

Stands out on Special Teams
Clarke Schmidt

Likely to Undergo Tommy John Surgery
Nolan Arenado

Scratched from Saturday's Lineup
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Starting on Saturday
Corbin Carroll

Activated from 10-Day Injured List
Cincinnati Bengals

Shemar Stewart, Bengals Continue Contract Talks, No Progress Made
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Potential Giannis Antetokounmpo Trade may not Happen Until "August, September"
Ha-Seong Kim

Removed Early During Season Debut
ARI

Christian Fischer Retires From NHL at 28
NHL

Spencer Martin Moves to Russia
WAS

Anthony Beauvillier Re-Signs With Capitals for Two Years
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Sitting Out With Foot Issue
Isaiah Neyor

Impresses at Minicamp
Houston Rockets

Jock Landale Waived by Rockets
Bo Bichette

Back in Blue Jays Lineup
Jonas Valančiūnas

Jonas Valanciunas Considering Returning to Europe
Miles Sanders

Works With Starters During Mandatory Minicamp
Jabari Walker

Signs Two-Way Deal With Sixers
Chimere Dike

Titans Could Move Chimere Dike Inside
Keandre Lambert-Smith

KeAndre Lambert-Smith not Guaranteed Roster Spot
Anthony Bradford

Working Hard to Win Back Starting Job
Byron Young

Still Improving?
Cody Simon

Jonathan Gannon has Been Impressed With Cody Simon
SirVocea Dennis

has Impressive Offseason
Trevor Penning

Could Still Have a Role in New Orleans
Jonathan Kuminga

Warriors Decline Recent Offer for Jonathan Kuminga
Orlando Magic

Moritz Wagner, Magic Agree to One-Year Deal
Clarke Schmidt

Placed on Injured List
José Soriano

Jose Soriano Throws Gem Against Braves
Robbie Ray

Earns Ninth Win in Complete Game
T.J. Watt

Likely to Reset the Edge-Rush Market
George Springer

Blasts Two Homers, Drives in Four
James Wood

Goes Yard in Five-Hit Night
Bradley Beal

Suns Discussing Potential Buyout
Los Angeles Lakers

Jaxson Hayes Staying with the Lakers
NBA

Damian Lillard "Open" to Signing With a Team This Offseason
Max Muncy

Out at Least Six Weeks
Clarke Schmidt

Leaves Start with Forearm Tightness
Colson Montgomery

Promoted to the Major Leagues
Pittsburgh Steelers

Omar Khan, Steelers Agree to Three-Year Contract
Max Muncy

Goes on Injured List With Knee Bruise
Max Muncy

Out of Thursday's Lineup
James Wood

Joining Home Run Derby
SJ

Sharks Claim Nick Leddy Off Waivers
Max Scherzer

Cleared to Start on Saturday
SJ

Sharks Sign Dmitry Orlov to Two-Year, $13 Million Contract
CAR

Nikolaj Ehlers Joins Hurricanes on Six-Year Contract
Kodai Senga

Could be "in Play" to Return Before All-Star Break
Ha-Seong Kim

Rays Reinstate Ha-Seong Kim From Injured List
Chau Smith-Wade

Having Stellar Offseason
Ace Bailey

Inks Rookie Contract With Jazz
Divine Deablo

Could be the Quarterback of the Defense
Isaiah Rodgers

a Likely Starter for the Vikings
Jacob Monk

Sees Plenty of Work With Starters
Avonte Maddox

has Impressed Dan Campbell
Boston Celtics

Josh Minott Inks Deal With Celtics
Chicago Bears

Ruben Hyppolite Shows Notable Improvement
Sandro Mamukelashvili

Heading to Toronto
Daron Payne

Commanders Coaches Impressed With Daron Payne
Danny Gray

Makes Impression During Offseason Workouts
Jared McCain

Not on 76ers Summer League Roster
Dylan Harper

Unavailable for California Classic
COL

Brent Burns Inks One-Year Deal with Avalanche
STL

Blues Land Pius Suter on Two-Year Deal
Morgan Frost

Agrees to Two-Year Extension with Flames
WPG

Gustav Nyquist Moves to Winnipeg
Cody Glass

Devils Re-Sign Cody Glass to Two-Year Deal
PIT

Anthony Mantha Joins Penguins
Cleveland Cavaliers

Larry Nance Jr. Headed Back to Cavaliers
Eric Gordon

Remaining with 76ers
Los Angeles Lakers

Deandre Ayton Joining Lakers
Emil Heineman

Signs Two-Year Deal with Islanders
Simon Holmstrom

Re-Signs with Islanders for Two Years
UTA

Nate Schmidt Signs Three-Year Deal with Mammoth
UTA

Brandon Tanev Moves to Utah on Three-Year Contract
NJ

Evgenii Dadonov Joins Devils on One-Year Deal
BUF

Sabres Snap Up Alex Lyon on Two-Year Contract
Dallas Mavericks

Dante Exum Returning to Dallas
Ryan McLeod

Inks Four-Year Extension with Sabres
NAS

Predators Bring in Nick Perbix on Two-Year Deal
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Has Surgery to Repair a Turf Toe Injury
LA

Cody Ceci Moves to Los Angeles
Charlotte Hornets

Spencer Dinwiddie Lands With Charlotte
Bud Cauley

in Great Form Ahead of John Deere Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

a Player to Avoid at John Deere Classic
Jake Knapp

Riding Momentum Ahead of John Deere Classic
PGA

Sungjae Im Looking for Consistency at John Deere Classic
Ryan Gerard

a Solid Option at John Deere Classic
Rickie Fowler

Looking to Rebound at John Deere Classic
Cameron Champ

a Volatile Option at John Deere Classic
Jackson Suber

Staying Below 70 is Key to Success for Jackson Suber
Kevin Roy

Playing Better Heading into John Deere Classic
Justin Lower

Hoping for Something Positive in Illinois
Ben Kohles

a Long Shot at John Deere Classic
Stephan Jaeger

Attempts to Stop Roller-Coaster Ride
Beau Hossler

Needs a Challenge in Illinois
Harry Higgs

Has Potential at John Deere Classic
Nick Dunlap

Keeps Plugging Through Tough 2025 Season
Milwaukee Bucks

Taurean Prince Staying in Milwaukee
Kevin Yu

a Near Must-Play at TPC Deere Run
PGA

J.T. Poston Returns to John Deere Classic Looking for Another High Finish
Thriston Lawrence

a Decent Fit For John Deere Classic
Tom Kim

Not Finding Much to be Happy About Ahead of John Deere Classic
Si Woo Kim

is a Prohibitive Fade at John Deere Classic
Ben Griffin

is the Appropriate Favorite at TPC Deere Run
Daniel Suarez

and Trackhouse Racing Parting Ways After 2025 Season
Ilia Topuria

Becomes The New Lightweight Champion
Charles Oliveira

Knocked Out At UFC 317
Kai Kara-France

Alexandre Pantoja Submits Kai Kara-France
Kai Kara-France

Submitted At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Extends His Win Streak
Brandon Royval

Drops Decision
Renato Moicano

Loses Back-To-Back Fights
Beneil Dariush

Gets Back In The Win Column
Felipe Lima

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Payton Talbott

Bounces Back
Alex Bowman

Competitive Run Ends With Third-Place Finish at Atlanta
Erik Jones

Secures A Top-Five Finish After Adversity In Atlanta
Tyler Reddick

Collects A New Career-Best Finish At Atlanta
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF