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For many, Black Friday is all about sales and hunting for the best values on the goods that they're looking for. I'm not stepping foot inside a retail store today, but I am still hunting for value when it comes to NBA games on which to wager.
After a day off, (you know the NBA has to let the NFL have their fun for a day) basketball is back and we get a really fun, loaded, Black Friday slate tonight with some really appealing matchups. These games tonight are part of the in-season tournament, which has produced some really fun games so far, but I don't really treat these games any differently than regular-season games when it comes to handicapping.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for the first full NBA slate of the season that tips off at 7:00 PM EST on Friday, November 24. Follow me for more NBA bets and daily insights @ThunderDanDFS!
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NBA Betting Picks: Game Totals
Sacramento Kings (+4) @ Minnesota Timberwolves (229.5 total)
With scores trending up in a big way here early in the NBA season, here are two teams with negative total +/- on their totals this season. The Wolves enter tonight's game as home favorites and they've earned it. After going 1-2 in October, the Wolves have won 11 of their last 12 games in the month of November.
Minnesota is doing it largely on the strength of their defense. The T-Wolves have the top-rated defensive unit in the NBA with a defensive rating of 106.2. The twin towers of Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns are healthy and Minnesota's emerging superstar Anthony Edwards is playing some incredible basketball on both ends.
Minnesota has a blue-collar feel with veterans like Mike Conley and Kyle Anderson being much more valuable rotation players than will appear on the stat sheet. Naz Reid might be the best backup big man in the game, too.
As much as I like the Kings this year, this Minnesota team is a bad matchup for them as they play so much of their offense through their center Domantas Sabonis. They'll be without Keegan Murray tonight, too, who has been a solid two-way player for them this year in his second season.
I like the Wolves to win, but instead of betting the spread we are angling for the under here, which really popped on my model this morning as I project this game for just around 223 points.
The Pick: UNDER 229.5 total points (-110 DraftKings)
Boston Celtics (-6.5) @ Orlando Magic (221.5 total)
If you love defense, you should like this game. I mentioned that the Wolves were the top defense in the NBA right now and the two teams right behind them in defensive rating are - you guessed it - Orlando and Boston.
The Celtics look fantastic this year and made a pretty big statement on Wednesday night when they defeated the Milwaukee Bucks 119-116. At 12-3, Boston has been the best team in the East so far this year without question. However, the Magic might be the most improved team this year and they look like a potential playoff team as they have now won five in a row and sit at 10-5.
This spread has moved in favor of Boston this morning, but I respect the Magic too much to lay points on the Celtics on the road, no matter how good they have looked. Instead, I am angling for another under here as I think both teams will be content to play more half-court offense, and the intensity that Orlando plays with forces Boston to buckle down and play their best defense, too.
As my model shows, this game is projected to be slower than average (which is around 101 possessions) and has one of the lowest efficiency projections (meaning the offensive and defensive skills of both teams combined favor the defenses).
The pick: UNDER 221.5 total points (-110 DraftKings)
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NBA Betting Picks: ML and Spreads
New Orleans Pelicans (+5) @ LA Clippers (226.5 total)
I have been a big proponent of New Orleans as a team on the rise in the West. Unfortunately, they lost a key piece of their team when C.J. McCollum went down with a lung issue and he has yet to return (but word is that he is close). This team dropped five in a row earlier this month, but since then, they've won four of their last five including wins over good teams (Sacto twice, Denver, and Dallas) with their only loss in that stretch being a one-point defeat to a very good Minnesota team.
Brandon Ingram went from 4/12 with 8:33 left in the 3rd to finishing 9/18 (including 4 of his last 6 at the rim.) pic.twitter.com/Sk5Mi4Pvmz
— JC’s Pops (@JDub9911) November 23, 2023
Obviously, the Clippers are a similar story in that they look to be righting the ship after they started off this month 0-6 but have won their last three games. They moved Westbrook to the bench and the big three of Harden, George, and Leonard are starting to gel nicely.
New Orleans will need big games from Ingram, Zion, and more steady play from their role players, but they could pull an upset here. If not, I still think they'll be in this game until the final few possessions. I'll take the Pellies and the points tonight.
The Pick: Pels +5 (-105 DraftKings)
Favorite ML Parlay: IND + PHO + GSW (+102 DK)
Favorite Teaser (buying 4.5 points): MIA +10, ORL +11, NOP +9.5 (+150 DK)
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