Free NBA Betting Picks and Best Bets (1/22/24)

Thunder Dan Palyo's top NBA betting picks and best bets for today's NBA games on 1/22/24. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and NBA player props.

After a thrilling weekend of NFL playoff games in the Divisional round, we have no football for an entire week and the NBA takes center stage in the sports world once again!

It's Monday and we have a lovely eight-game slate on top. Unfortunately, we do have some major mismatches that carry double-digit spreads (three of these to be exact) that I really don't mess with when it comes to bets. But the remaining five games are up for grabs and perhaps the most compelling matchup on the board is the red-hot Cleveland Cavaliers traveling to the upstart Orlando Magic in a game with only a 1.5-point spread.

In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for the NBA slate that tips off at 1:00 p.m. EST on Monday, January 15. 

NBA Betting Picks: Totals

Cleveland Cavaliers (-1.5) at Orlando Magic (215.5 total)

My Cleveland Cavaliers just happen to be the hottest team in the league! They have won seven straight games and 12 of their last 15, battling through injuries to key starters while doing it, too. I know some people like betting on streaks, while others like betting AGAINST them, but today we will be doing neither because I am not about to jinx my favorite squad when they have a really tough matchup against an Orlando team that is surging as well.

Cavs cruise past Hawks as win streak hits 7 https://t.co/Y3NudVAKsg pic.twitter.com/6yq4tKMHKx

— Reuters (@Reuters) January 21, 2024

The Magic have been the surprise team in the Eastern Conference this season, at 23-20 they trail the Miami Heat by only one game and they are coming off an impressive win over Miami last night. Orlando has been dealing with injuries of their own, but they got one of their best players, Franz Wagner, back last night and are slowly getting Markelle Fultz back up to speed.

This should be a battle! These two teams have split the season series so far, with the Cavs winning the first meeting in a game that saw 232 points scored and the Magic securing the second game in the season series a week later by the score of 104-94. Those are two very different point totals and today's total (215.5) is just about in the middle of those two final scores.

But I am backing the under here and I expect a final result that is more similar to the second matchup. These two teams are both playing some excellent defense right now, with the Cavs ranking 2nd and Orlando ranking 6th in defensive rating over their last ten games. Furthermore, both teams are content to play at a slower pace, too as Cleveland ranks 16th and Orlando ranks 30th (dead last) in pace over that last ten-game span.

The trends tend to support this conclusion, too, as Orlando has hit the under at the third-highest rate (57%) this season and Cleveland isn't far behind at 54%. I can't wait to watch this game and see how this young Orlando team handles Donovan Mitchell and Jarrett Allen, who have both been playing at an All-Star level. But both teams have deep benches and solid role players, too, who will be sure to have an impact on this outcome. This feels like a low-scoring, close game and I think we stay under this total...I hope for a Cavs win to keep the streak alive.

The Pick: UNDER 215.5 points (-110 DK)

NBA Betting Picks: ML & Spreads

Boston Celtics (-3) @ Dallas Mavericks (239 total)

This is the other game that I really have an interest in watching tonight. We have a fun storyline with Kristaps Porzingis playing in Dallas for the first time since he left their franchise two seasons ago and Kyrie Irving also facing one of his former teams as he had a brief run with the Celtics not all that long ago.

Mavericks vs. Celtics tonight.

This will be Kristaps Porzingis’ first game in Dallas since he was traded by the Mavericks in 2022. pic.twitter.com/SOyLK8Umd8

— Mavs Film Room 🐴🎥 (@MavsFilmRoom) January 22, 2024

Most importantly we have two pretty good teams. Well, the Celtics are a great team and Dallas has shown that they can compete with just about anyone when they are healthy.

I don't want to speak in hyperbole, but I do think the Celtics have the best players 1-6 in their rotation of any team in the league. Al Horford is their super sub and often starts when another starter is out or being rested and he's still playing at a high level even in his late 30s.

Kristaps Porzingis has fit in perfectly alongside Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, while Jrue Holiday has also acclimated quite well. Holiday doesn't have to be a scorer on this team and can focus a lot more on defense and getting shots for his teammates. And Derrick White is having a career year, playing some great basketball on both ends of the floor.

Boston has 33 wins for a reason - they are really good on both ends and you have to play your absolute best basketball (and maybe catch them on a bad night, too) to beat them.

Luka and Kyrie have both missed some time this year, but when they are on the court together they have been a formidable duo. Dallas still feels like they are missing a third option, but for now, Tim Hardaway Jr. has been a solid scorer off the bench and the rest of the Dallas role players have played well enough alongside their two stars.

Boston, to me, is just the better team and they are in better form here having won 7 of their last 10 with an impressive +8.9 net rating. Dallas is 6-4 over their last ten but with just a +1 net rating.

Luka and Kyrie are always capable of going crazy and carrying a team to a win with huge individual performances. But Boston is balanced and just never stops. I like the Celtics to win on the road and cover this small spread tonight.

The Pick: Celtics -3 (-108 DK)

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NBA Betting Picks: Teasers and Parlays

MONEYLINE PARLAY: MIL + SAC + PHI + MIN = (-138 DK)

Thanks for reading and good luck with your wagers tonight!

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