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Today's free MLB prop betting picks for Wednesday, August 9, 2023. Use Dan Palyo's top baseball prop picks and MLB prop bet recommendations to win money on sports books.
It's a weird week for my writing schedule as I find myself back on MLB props for the fourth straight day (spoiler alert, I will be back tomorrow, too). This is the time of year when I start juggling all the writing schedules and filling in for my fellow comrades where it's needed. So more props today and hopefully some more winners (we were 3-2 yesterday if you are keeping score!)
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Wednesday, August 9, 2023. If you ever want to chat about strikeout props or any other MLB bets, you can find me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS.
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Max Fried OVER 4.5 strikeouts (-180 DraftKings)
I know that's a lot of juice, but I feel pretty good about Fried for five or even six strikeouts today. This number will almost surely move to 5.5 at some point today in which case I think you can still bet it at plus odds there.
Fried showed no rust at all after a nearly 3-month layoff as he whiffed eight Cubs and allowed just three hits and no walks. Keep in mind, the Cubs were the hottest team in baseball at the time, too. The Pirates are not good and even if they somehow magically beat Spencer Strider the other night, I think they'll struggle against the crafty lefty Fried who can really give hitters fits with his offspeed stuff.
Jordan Montgomery OVER 4.5 strikeouts (-165 DraftKings)
This is another prop with odds that I don't love betting straight up, but I want to grab it early this morning before it moves. If you hate betting straights over -150, then you can parlay Jo-Mo with Fried and get a nice return at +149.
Monty had a successful debut with his new team, the Texas Rangers, last week when he struck out six Marlins and allowed just two runs on six hits and one walk.
He will face a weak-hitting Oakland team tonight that carries a 23% K% to lefties. That's only slightly below average, but remember that we only need five strikeouts here and that Monty has regularly pitched six innings this season. Even if Mad Max and E-Rod burned us last night, I have to go back to a good pitcher who only needs to strike out about a batter per inning to hit his prop.
Bailey Ober OVER 5.5 strikeouts (+105 DraftKings)
And now for a prop with some good odds! Ober is coming off a few underwhelming starts against Kansas City and Arizona, but he is still a guy with a 24% K% who has a great matchup here with Detroit, a team that struck out 10 times against Sonny Gray last night and raised their K% against RHP to almost 27% over the last month.
Ober tied his season-high in strikeouts with eight against Detroit back in late June and showed that this is a matchup he can thrive in, so I am good with taking him to get six strikeouts tonight to double our money!
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Rafael Devers OVER 1.5 total bases (-125 DraftKings)
We went two for two on hitter props last night, so let's see if we can keep it rolling today. I am going with two bonafide stud lefties in great spots against lesser pitchers tonight. Let's start with Devers, who faces Jordan Lyles and the Royals.
Devers numbers against righties are almost identical to Lyles's numbers allowed to righties. Check this out.
Devers vs. RHP: .362 wOBA, .262 ISO
Lyles vs. LHH: .362 wOBA, .246 ISO
Devers also happens to be 6-17 against Lyles in his career with three doubles and a home run. He has hit this prop in three of his last four games.
Matt Olson OVER 1.5 total bases (-105 DraftKings)
Quinn Priester has been a disaster for the Pirates since coming up to the big leagues. He has an 8.69 ERA and 1.84 WHIP through his first four starts and now he has to take on Olson and the best offense in baseball.
Pray for Priester because I think it's going to get ugly. Olson has been mashing righties this year and continues to pile up extra-base hits in bunches. He leads the NL in home runs with 39 and is sixth in hits with 112, 20 of those being doubles. He had hit this prop in five straight before getting a single and walking twice last night (productive, but not enough to cash the prop).
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