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John Brubaker's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 9/3/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and MLB player props.
Happy Saturday, RotoBallers, we're back for another day of MLB betting picks. Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Saturday, September 3rd, 2022.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 58-63-2, -18.2 units
- Sides: 31-33-1, -12.77 units
- Totals: 26-30-1, -7.13 units
- Props: 1-0 +1.70 units
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Phillies @ Giants
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: SF +106
PHI: Noah Syndergaard | SF: Jakob Junis
We finished 1-1 yesterday, taking a loss on the Phillies/Giants first inning under due to some poor pitching by Kyle Gibson and poor defending by Kyle Schwarber. It happens, and I'll be running it back this afternoon. The Phillies will be sending "Thor", Noah Syndergaard (8-9, 3.98 ERA) to the mound. Syndergaard has been up and down since joining the Phillies, but has been solid in the first inning this year. While he has allowed a run in seven of 20 starts overall, he's held opponents scoreless in six of eight first innings on the road in 2022.
The Giants will be sending Jakob Junis (4-4, 4.04 ERA) to the hill tonight. While, like Syndergaard, Junis has been up and down this season, he's been excellent in the first inning. He's yet to allow a run in any of his 14 starts this season, seven of which coming at Oracle Park.
Not much has changed on the offensive after last night, other than the Giants scoring in the first while the Phillies were held scoreless. The Phillies have scored in roughly 29% of first innings overall and 21% when they're on the road. Conversely, the Giants have scored in just 21% of first innings both at home and overall. While my model gives the first inning under a 64.01% chance of hitting, FanDuel Sportsbook has the line at -102, good for 50.5% implied odds. It's a bit of a shaky one with Syndergaard on the mound, but the value is too good to pass up here.
Pick: Under 0.5 First Inning Runs (-102) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Rockies @ Reds
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: CIN -126
COL: German Marquez | CIN: Nick Lodolo
I'm heading out to Cincinnati for our second play of the day. While we won't be looking at a first inning under here, we'll be looking at a first-five under. The visiting Rockies will be sending German Marquez (7-10, 4.97 ERA) to the mound. Marquez has been up and down all season, but it is worth noting he's been a bit unlucky this season, given his 3.91 xFIP. Marquez is also better on the road, coming into this one with a 3.69 ERA on the road compared to a 6.09 ERA at home.
On the other hand, the Reds will be sending southpaw Nick Lodolo (3-5, 4.30 ERA) to the mound. Lodolo is still young and a bit raw, but has shown the upside of being an elite starter. Like Marquez, he's been a bit unlucky this season, given his 3.92 xFIP. Also, like Marquez, he has a split advantage. He's pitched to a 6.75 ERA in five starts on the road while pitching to a 2.93 ERA in eight starts at home.
Both of these teams come in the middle of the pack when it comes to scoring. While the Reds are better offensively at home, it is worth noting that the Rockies struggle away from Coors Field, averaging 3.02 runs per game on the road, the worst in the league. These two teams scored five runs in total last night, three of which came in the first five innings. In theory, the two pitchers on the mound this evening are better, and while I don't have first five projections in my model (hopefully coming next season!), my model points to this one staying under.
Pick: F5 Under 4.5 Runs (-115) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. See you tomorrow!
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