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Yes, it has been two weeks since the National Championship game, but I've been working on something since then. I wanted to see who I made the most on and lost the most on this season, so I created a spreadsheet to show who I can pick and who I can't. I'm no different than anyone else. Sometimes a name sucks us in and leads us astray. I'll reveal some of those results at the end of the article.
That was a fun bowl season, wasn't it? We had a couple of matchups cancelled and a couple that were switched up. I'm still sticking to the fact that Memphis should have replaced Rutgers, but considering I lost 22 betting points on the Tigers this year, maybe it worked out for the best. That was my third-worst total of the season, so the Tigers were a nemesis to me.
I know on the ESPN Spread picks that I did well and in the Bowl Mania pool I finished in the top five. Hopefully that means good things for my last picks of the 2021 season. ESPNFAN8411436592 won the bowl pool with a 28-10 record and 547 points. If this is you, send me a DM on Twitter to claim your free college football subscription for premium access at Rotoballer for the 2022 season!
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CFB Betting Picks Bowl Results:
I promised transparency this year, and you will get it, warts and all. I went heavy on Wake, Kentucky, and Army so I came out ahead in real life no matter what happened here. Let's get to my final picks of the year!
Army(-7.5) vs. Navy at East Rutherford, NJ: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I didn't expect an outright win, but I knew it would be close. I probably should have went a little higher on this one.
Toledo(-10.5) vs. Middle Tennessee State at Nassau, Bahamas: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I call my losing 11 betting points on Toledo this year the Bryant Koback effect. He's so good that he tricked me into thinking that the team is better than they really are.
Coastal Carolina(-10.5) vs. Northern Illinois at Orlando, FL: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
As expected, Grayson McCall to Isaiah Likely was a problem, but the Chanticleers defense didn't do a great job either. The Bounce House is no stranger to points. Why should bowl games be any different?
Western Kentucky vs. Appalachian State(-2.5) at Boca Raton, FL: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I touted Western Kentucky all season long and I put that money where that big freaking mouth of mine is. I made 25 betting points on the Hilltoppers this year, the most of any team. Yes, that included a couple of games where I picked them to get covered. All three WKU games that I missed were in the first five weeks of the season. Bailey Zappe broke all kinds of records. I didn't think they would hang 60 on App State, but that's what happens when all of your stud players play in the bowl game. It was fun to watch Zappe all season long. I hope he has a shot in the NFL, but if not, this was a hell of a way to solidify your legacy.
UTEP vs. Fresno State(-11.5) at Albuquerque, NM: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Jordan Mims outshone Jake Haener, but Fresno still played sloppy enough to never really pull away. UTEP hung around, much like they have all season. The Miners have nothing to hang their heads over. Neither does Fresno. They won ten games and they get Jeff Tedford back. They're going to be a force next year as well.
UAB vs. (12)BYU(-6.5) at Shreveport, LA: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Tyler Allgeier still ran wild on the Blazers, but BYU sure could have used Jaren Hall down the stretch in this one. Baylor Romney wasn't bad, but when you are on a backup quarterback against a good team in a bowl game, bad things can happen.
Eastern Michigan vs. Liberty(-9.5) at Mobile, AL: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Liberty was the first team to cover in a Bowl game. Malik Willis showed why he is likely a first-round pick in this spring's draft. Again. Hey, when you go to a smaller college, never pass up a chance to impress the scouts again. Willis didn't.
Oregon State(-7.5) vs. Utah State at Los Angeles, CA: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This was another one where I was more contrarian. I bet the Utah State money line as well because I was touting them outright since the games were announced. I'm betting right along with you guys. We win or lose together!
Marshall vs. (23)Louisiana(-5.5) at New Orleans: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Some were concerned about Billy Napier leaving before the Bowl. I wasn't since Louisiana hired from within and most of the rest of the staff were intact. That was the big difference between the Cajuns and other teams that saw coaches bolt between regular season and bowl season. I sure am going to miss watching Levi Lewis there in Lafayette. He had himself a great career.
Tulsa(-9.5) vs. Old Dominion at Conway, SC: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
There was a reason I only put one on this. I knew the Tulsa offense would be an issue for the Monarchs.
Kent State vs. Wyoming(-3.5) at Boise, ID: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I'm glad I flipped on this one. For all of the running backs that Wyoming has, it was quarterback Levi Williams that ran for 200 yards and four touchdowns. Kent put up some good numbers as well, but like they did in the MAC Championship, the Flashes were repeatedly punished on the ground by the Cowboys.
San Diego State(-2.5) vs. UTSA at Frisco, TX: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
It was a disappointing end for the Roadrunners. Still, a 12-win season is a big thing for this up-and-coming program. Sincere McCormick, as good as he is, likely wouldn't have made much of a difference. Lucas Johnson had a big game for the Aztecs. McCormick couldn't have stopped that. He couldn't have helped cover Jesse Matthews either.
Missouri vs. Army(-5.5) at Fort Worth, TX: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Sure....now Missouri's run defense shows up. They had been MIA all season. Missouri nearly – and probably should have – won this game even with a backup quarterback. I'll be shocked if Brady Cook isn't Missouri's starting quarterback next fall.
Miami(OH)(-2.5) vs. North Texas at Frisco, TX: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
So much for home field advantage. Brett Gabbert to Jack Sorenson looked good in the final time.
Central Florida vs. Florida(-6.5) at Tampa, FL: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I should have went more on this. The Gators have been trying to avoid this game for a while now. They had opts outs. UCF really didn't. Northwestern transfer Isaiah Bowser had the game that UCF fans have been waiting for since he transferred. He ran for 155 yards and a pair of touchdowns.
Ball State vs. Georgia State(-5.5) at Montgomery, AL: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
The Ball State offense had their best game in a while. The defense had one of their worst games of the season. Jayshon Jackson had a coming out party for the Cardinals, but the GSU defense made plays when they needed to and Darren Grainger did whatever he wanted, especially in the 28-point third quarter for the Panthers.
Western Michigan(-6.5) vs. Nevada at Detroit, MI: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
If Nevada didn't have their starting QB and top four receivers either opt our or hit the transfer portal, it may have been a different story. Maybe. The Nevada defense still had no answer for Sean Tyler.
(20)Houston vs. Auburn(-2.5) at Birmingham, AL: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was the first bowl game that featured two defenses that really performed well. Tank Bigsby coming back to Auburn was a huge lift, but the Tigers couldn't cover Nathaniel Dell. There aren't a lot of guys that caught ten passes against Auburn this year. Jahan Dotson and John Metchie were the only ones to do it and they are both likely first-round picks.
Louisville(-1.5) vs. Air Force at Dallas, TX: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I picked Air Force outright, but even I didn't expect Haaziq Daniels to throw for 252 yards on just ten attempts. He completed nine of them, including two for touchdowns. Air Force really did take to the air in this one, to the surprise of nearly everyone.
Mississippi State(-9.5) vs. Texas Tech at Memphis, TN: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Getting destroyed in a game that he should win is nothing new for Mike Leach. Anyone remember the 2008 game in Norman? Mike Leach and Texas Tech came to Norman ranked second in the nation......and lost by 44 points. This was a statement by Texas Tech and one more final screw you to Leach. He just sat there and took it.....
West Virginia vs. Minnesota(-5.5) at Phoenix, AZ: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The West Virginia defense played a good game, but the offense was nowhere to be found. Minnesota locked them down a little better than the Mountaineers did to them.
Maryland(-3.5) vs. Virginia Tech at Bronx, NY: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
My bad, this should have been a max bet. Maryland had been tiptoeing around a nice game for a while before this one. Taulia Tagovailoa proved that Tua isn't the only good football player in the family. The difference is that this time many people outside of the states of Maryland and Hawaii saw it.
(19)Clemson(-2.5) vs. Iowa State at Orlando, FL: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This was the defensive battle that everyone expected. If Breece Hall had elected to play in this, I would have taken the Cyclones. The interception return for a touchdown by Clemson helped seal this one.
(14)Oregon vs. (16)Oklahoma(-6.5) at San Antonio, TX: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Bob Stoops came out of retirement for this one! There was no way Oklahoma was losing this! The Oklahoma defense in the third quarter is cause for concern, but with all of the staff changes, this defense will barely be recognizable come August. That might be a good thing.
North Carolina(-9.5) vs. South Carolina at Charlotte, NC: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This game was never really that close. The North Carolina defense was as awful as ever and Kevin Harris plowed through the defense without issue. TE Jaheim Bell had his coming out party with 159 yards and a pair of touchdowns. The Gamecocks might be pretty good next year.
Tennessee(-6.5) vs. Purdue at Nashville, TN: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The officiating in the overtime took some of the luster off of this great game. That sure looked like a touchdown on Tennessee's possession to me, especially when no one was being called down earlier in the game. That's not to say that the Vols still wouldn't have lost. We'll never know. Still, it would have been nice not to have that controversy in this good of a game.
(12)Pittsburgh vs. (10)Michigan State(-2.5) at Atlanta, GA: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Nick Patti going down in the first quarter doomed Pitt in this one. He was off to a really nice start too. Nice enough that I thought my bet might be in trouble. The Pitt defense held tough until Michigan State finally broke through in the fourth quarter.
Wisconsin(-6.5) vs. Arizona State at Las Vegas, NV: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Braelon Allen ran for as many yards as Jayden Daniels threw for and Wisconsin still only won by a touchdown. The Sun Devils stood strong in the second half, but their inability to run the ball was a huge problem, much as we all thought would be the case.
(17)Wake Forest(-16.5) vs. Rutgers at Jacksonville, FL: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Rutgers was really overmatched. I would have much rather seen Wake take on Memphis.
Washington State(-6.5) vs. Central Michigan at El Paso, TX: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I almost flipped on this one a couple of times. At the very least, I should have lowered the bet. Central Michigan dominated in the first half and held on in the second. As expected, Lew Nichols III was a horse for the Chippewas with 30 carries for 138 yards. That will wear the defense out over the course of 60 minutes.
(4)Cincinnati vs. (1)Alabama(-13.5) at Jerry World: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I'm not upset about this at all. I don't feel like Cincinnati played poorly or looked like they didn't belong. Alabama was just the better team. If the gap is that large between one and four, spare me your argument for playoff expansion. It's almost hard to argue for four at this point considering the lopsided nature of many of the semifinals over the last five years.
(3)Georgia(-7.5) vs. (2)Michigan at Miami, FL: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
There's that infamous Harbaugh choke job. Michigan looked like they had no business being in this game. We know that isn't true, but that's what it looked like. This was absolute domination by Georgia.
Penn State vs. (21)Arkansas(-2.5) at Tampa, FL: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
It turns out that I didn't have much to be worried about here. Arkansas showed up ready on both sides of the ball, but especially on defense.
(9)Oklahoma State vs. (5)Notre Dame(EVEN) at Glendale, AZ: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I was ready to take my loss and move on, but Spencer Sanders and the Pokes had other ideas. This game ended up being exactly what Vegas thought it would be. This loss isn't on Marcus Freeman. I still think the Irish made the right hire. This was just a tough way to begin his tenure. Who would have thought Jack Coan would throw for 509 yards and five touchdowns and still lose?
(15)Iowa vs. (22)Kentucky(-2.5) at Orlando, FL: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
The Iowa defense showed up, but the offense was a comedy of errors again. Wan'Dale Robinson finally got a win over Iowa. He accounted for 170 of the 233 passing yards for Will Levis.
(11)Utah vs. (6)Ohio State(-4.5) at Pasadena, CA: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This one has to sting for Utah, but that was a hell of a rebound by Ohio State after getting smoked by Michigan and getting down big early in this one. C.J. Stroud threw for an amazing 573 yards and six touchdowns. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is already a Buckeye legend and solidified it with a staggering 15 receptions for 347 yards against a good defense. Is Ohio State the title favorite for 2022 already? I can certainly make a case for it.
(7)Baylor vs. (8)Mississippi(-1.5) at New Orleans, LA: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Chalk up a win for those on the side of players skipping bowl games. I sure hope Matt Corral avoided serious injury, but if he could do it all over again, I bet he would have played anyway. Both defenses did what was expected, but Abram Smith finally wore down the Ole Miss defense. Would this have been different if Corral could have played the whole game? Maybe, but this wasn't a cheapy for Baylor. They showed up to play in this one.
LSU vs. Kansas State(-3.5) at Houston, TX: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
With all of the public money on Kansas State, I chickened out on raising this to a max bet like I wanted to. I knew better. LSU had nothing to play for and no quarterback and it showed.
(3)Georgia(-2.5) vs. (1)Alabama at Indianapolis, IN: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This game didn't turn for the worse for Bama until Jameson Williams got hurt. There were a lot of dropped passes and routes that weren't run as well by the backups as Alabama tried to mount a comeback. You can't blame Bryce Young for this one. This was on the receivers.
College Football Betting Season Results:
A few of the bowls got COVIDed, but I still managed to have a solid bowl season, going 20-16. That put me at 388-379 on the season. 50.6% was short of my goal, but I promise this is harder than it looks. There were some teams that I picked well. Some I did not. The playoffs turned Alabama into my biggest loser of the season with 25 points lost on the Tide. I lost 23 on Nebraska and 22 on Memphis, so that hurt as well.
I offset Bama by winning 25 points on Western Kentucky. That was the only team I cleared 20 with. I gained 19 on both New Mexico and Maryland, mostly by betting against the Lobos.
Now it's time to tally up the points. The weekly totals follow the bet. Season totals are in parentheses.
1. 1-1 (61-73) = -12
2. 4-4 (145-153) = -16
3. 7-7 (127-91) = 108
4. 5-2 (33-39) = -24
5. 3-2 (22-23) = -5
I did have a strong bowl season just based on points though. Even though my four and five point beds were lackluster during the regular season, I hit on eight of 12 of those in bowl season. I ended up coming out 17 points ahead on the bowls and 51 points total on the season. That means I am up 78 points in six years of counting the points. I will open the 2022 season with a nice little bankroll. Hopefully my articles helped you come out ahead this year as well. It was a very enjoyable season, and I hope you'll join me again next year!
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