Flag Hunting: PGA Betting Picks - Dell Technologies Match Play

Despite seemingly holding his game together with zip ties for much of the week (and his score together with ten-foot par saves), Jordan Spieth managed to give us the biggest opportunity we’ve had to date to cash our readers an outright winner. An ugly swing off of 16 tee and a missed six-footer on 17 officially sealed his fate at the Valspar.

All I ask for to start each week is a chance on Sunday afternoon. Jordan gave us exactly that, and with two third-places and a fourth-place finish over the last three weeks, it’s only a matter of time before things begin to fall our way down the stretch. Credit to Taylor Moore and those that backed him, as the 29-year-old Arkansas alum played as rock-solid as anyone on the leaderboard that afternoon.

He executed the clutch shots that Spieth could not in the treacherous “Snake Pit,” and going birdie-par-par on those final three holes is extremely impressive for a player who had yet to experience the pressure of that kind of stage. The trials and tribulations from the final group certainly helped his cause, but Moore’s play was fully deserving of his first PGA Tour title.

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Event Preview

Moving out of the Florida swing and officially onto the road to the Masters (16 days!!), we head into a different test entirely as handicappers: the Dell Technologies WGC-Match Play. Outside of Ryder Cups and Presidents Cups, this is the only opportunity we ever get as golf fans to watch the best in the world go head-to-head in a match-play format. 

Although the final day has drawn some ire due to the limited golf shots on offer, the electricity of Wednesday-Friday pool play and the eight knockout matches to start Saturday morning more than makes up for the downtime on Sunday afternoon. I’ll be quite dejected to see this event off the schedule when 2024 rolls around, but let’s not dwell on that. Instead, let’s provide as much information as possible to help y’all cash a ticket on Austin’s farewell tour!

First and foremost, here’s a quick format rundown for those unfamiliar with how things will be structured this week: 64 of the best players in the world have first been grouped into 16 pools of four. Just like in the World Cup, the objective in the first three rounds is to accrue enough points to advance out of group play (1 point awarded for a win, ½ for a draw, and 0 for a loss).

Each player will play one match per day from Wednesday-Friday, and at the end of those three matches, the man at the top of the group will advance into the weekend. The remaining three will pack their bags and begin final preparations for Augusta in a couple of weeks. Another note: there are no tiebreakers when it comes to deciding who advances out of group play. If two players are tied at the top of their group on Friday afternoon, they will face off in a sudden-death playoff to determine who moves into the weekend.

After that, the 16 group winners get sorted into a pre-seeded bracket (The Group 1 winner faces the winner of Group 16, Group 2 faces Group 15, etc). We’ll play single-elimination match-play over four rounds and the player who’s able to survive four consecutive matches over the weekend will be declared the champion. 

Because the bracket has already been predetermined, it makes it much easier as handicappers to decipher the potential road each player has to the final. Looking ahead to the knockout rounds, we could well be in store for Saturday morning duels between Jordan Spieth and Max Homa, Collin Morikawa and Viktor Hovland, or Jon Rahm and Cameron Young. 

However, those that follow this tournament year in and year out will know just how rare the chalk comes through in this event. Historically, only 33% of Pool 1 players (the highest-ranked player within a group), have advanced to the weekend, and a whopping 22% of Pool 4 players (the lowest-ranked in a group) have been able to topple the marquee names on route to a Round of 16 birth. 

For every Dustin Johnson-Jon Rahm or Jason Day-Louis Oosthuizen dream final we’ve gotten over the six years here in Austin, we’ve also seen our share of largely unheralded journeymen make runs deep into this event (Kevin Kisner, Matt Kuchar, Bill Haas to name a few). Much of that is to do with the venue we visit this week: our second Pete Dye design within three weeks, and a bit of a safe haven for shorter players that will not have enjoyed the collection of 480-yard Par 4’s that litter the Florida swing. 

 

The Golf Course

The Dell Technologies WGC-Match Play has been held at Austin Country Club since 2016. This 7,100-yard Pete Dye design is about as perfect of a match-play venue as you could draw up. Not only does it feature a multitude of risk-reward holes and birdie opportunities, but its meager length opens up the possibility for anyone in the field to contend.

Unlike the last two venues we’ve gotten in International Match Play (Whistling Straits and Quail Hollow), Austin CC does not put a premium on length off the tee and long-iron play into greens. Instead, only three Par 4’s measure over 470 yards, and by my estimation, players will have no more than a wedge or short iron into 9-10 of the holes this week.

For the top players in the game, this severely limits the advantages they typically possess over your average PGA Tour player. The ability to drive it 315 down the middle and play towering long irons from 200 yards plus are skills typically reserved for those at the very top of the world rankings. Accurate driving and good wedge play, on the other hand, isn’t nearly as reliant on elite physical gifts and are therefore much more attainable to the masses on the PGA Tour.

This isn’t to say this event is a complete crapshoot, as three of the last six champions of this event had attained the number one spot in the world rankings within that very same year. But if you look at some of the outliers that have found continued success around Austin CC, you’ll find a very similar skillset to one that you’d look for around Harbour Town, PGA West, or TPC River Highlands (which also happen to be Pete Dye designs). 

Three of the six winners at Austin CC have closed at 50-1 or deeper on odds boards. If that’s a route you want to take this week, I’d suggest looking at strong wedge players with a propensity to get hot with the putter. 

Scouting the Routing

There isn’t a lot to be said for the routing of this golf course since every twosome will be playing the same holes in the same order, with the only objective being to defeat your playing partner on a given hole. However, that doesn’t at all mean that live-bettors cannot find success at an event like this. On the contrary, I believe there is a greater edge to be found to those that remain diligent early in the week.

Because a match can be won or lost on a single shot, and the difference between starting (1-0) in pod play as opposed to (0-1) or (0-0-1) has been so significant historically, this is a perfect opportunity for live-bettors to hold fire until a decisive blow has been struck. I’d argue that one hole over the course of the week here in Austin means exponentially more than a rogue birdie on your typical Friday afternoon.

How significant has matchday one been on a player's prospects to advance? Since this event moved to Austin CC in 2016, nearly 80% (76/96) of all group winners have started their week with a win on Day One. 10% have halved their opening match, and the remaining 10% have overcome an opening match loss to advance out of group play.

Notably, the players that have managed to come back from an opening day setback have skewed far more towards the back of the board than the very top. Only one Top 10 seed (Dustin Johnson, 2016), has come back from an opening match loss/tie to top his group, and surprisingly, we’ve seen 13 players from Pools 3 and 4 (seeded 33-64 in the field), accomplish this feat.

I won’t say I’m necessarily looking to target lower-tier players off of an opening loss, but these numbers do throw some cold water on my traditional practice of buying low on some of the slower-starting elites. It should also be noted that with the Masters in less than two weeks, motivation has to be called into question with some of the top seeds should things start badly for them.

The pay jump isn’t that substantial from a group stage to a Ro16 exit, and with the sheer volume of elevated events on the schedule within the last two months, I don’t think it would be the end of the world for some of these guys to avoid a potential gauntlet of seven matches in five days. If I were to jump into the live market this week, I’d much prefer to hop on an intriguing lower seed that finds early success, rather than the brand-name player who could well have one foot out the door off of an opening day loss. 

 

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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

 

The Betting Card

Patrick Cantlay (20-1): One of the clear winners coming out of Monday’s draw and my number one pick to win the Dell Technologies Match Play this week is Patrick Cantlay. In a 64-man field, I’d consider anything in the 20-1 range more than fair for the number four player on the planet, but particularly when his initial group contains names like Brian Harman, K.H. Lee, and Nick Taylor (all three reside in the bottom half of my comprehensive model).

Cantlay has excelled on short, easy, wedge-intensive golf courses over the course of his career (think Harbour Town, Pebble Beach, River Highlands, PGA West, TPC Summerlin, etc), and he’s coming in off of the back of some of the best sustained ball-striking form we’ve seen from Patty Ice - particularly in an area of the country that he’s traditionally struggled in. 

Now, coming in as the 4th overall seed, Cantlay not only gets his own quarter of the bracket away from the “Big Three,” but perhaps the clearest road of anyone into the final 8. Not only is he simply a class above everyone in his initial group, but Patrick would also draw the winner of Group 13 in the Sweet Sixteen (Sam Burns, Adam Scott, Seamus Power, Adam Hadwin). 

By my numbers, this is one of the weaker groups in the entire event, and unless Burns can carry over some extra momentum from his Valspar performance, there is nobody in this Ro16 matchup that should scare a player of Cantlay’s caliber. If we see anywhere near the same guy we’ve gotten since the start of the season, Cantlay should have no trouble dispatching anyone within his 8-man cell, and we should be well set up for when crunch time rolls around on Saturday afternoon. 

 

Scottie Scheffler (14-1): For the second straight week, I’m taking advantage of a repeat Champion prop offered by one of my favorite offshores (frequently referenced on Twitter: @flag_hunting). The 14-1 I bet hours after Scottie’s PLAYERS Championship win has now been slashed into the single digits, but even at those prices, I wouldn't blame anyone for hopping on board. 

Scottie has dominated Austin CC in two appearances here: winning 10 of 14 matches and reaching the final both times. Now the defending Champion enters this year's iteration playing some historically good golf: with eight consecutive finishes inside the top 12 and two wins against elevated fields at Scottsdale and Sawgrass. 

Scottie hasn’t lost strokes from tee-to-green since last year's PLAYERS Championship (where the wind blew 30mph around the most penal golf course on the PGA Tour), and he ranks first in both Bogey Avoidance and Birdie opportunities created over his last 24 rounds. Outside of some cold spells with the putter, there isn’t a single hole to be found in Scheffler’s game. 

Simply put, you’re either betting on Scottie this week, or you’re praying your guys are lucky enough to avoid him. He’s the scariest guy in professional golf, and he happens to own a 2-0 Match Play record against the only other man that could be considered a legitimate rival. I’m in this week, and I’m already in for a potential Masters repeat (10-1). Stay hot Scottie, stay hot.

 

The Shortlist

With only two outright bets (and only one of the prices currently available), I’ve decided to run down each group individually to outline a few names I’ll be monitoring in each. With Scheffler and Cantlay locked in on the card, I’ve still got about 25% of the weekly budget to play with. That leaves me room to add a name in the 20s if I see fit, or scattershot on 2-3 names deeper down the board.

Group 1: Scheffler, T. Kim, Noren, Riley

I’m locked in on Scottie, so it makes no sense to invest anything else in Group 1. Stylistically, I do think Tom Kim is a good fit for this place, but the recent ball-striking splits leave a lot to be desired. Riley’s iron play actually makes him the most dangerous player in the group for me, as he can create birdie chances in bunches when he’s firing (also fresh off of an 8th, 19th, and 29th place finish over four starts in Florida).  

Group 2: Rahm, Horschel, Fowler, Mitchell

Of all of the top seeds, Rahm got a pretty rotten draw in the group stages. Horschel made the final here in 2021 and has gotten out of the group stage in his last two appearances. Mitchell is one of the few guys on Tour that can match Rahm’s driving prowess. And Rickie is playing the best golf we’ve seen him play in 3-4 years.

Of the three, it’s actually the lower two seeds that would worry me the most as a Rahm supporter, Mitchell and Fowler rank fifth and 12th in birdie or better rates, and Rahm’s one Achilles heel through time has been his sub-standard wedge play. Trouble could certainly be afoot for the No. 2 seed.

Group 3: McIlroy, Bradley, McCarthy, Stallings

Like Rahm, Austin CC doesn’t seem to be a dream fit for Rory’s game. He’s got a career record of (10-7-3) in this event since 2016 and hasn’t made it past the Round of 16 in his last four starts. Couple this history with a severely balky putter to start 2023 (lost >2.5 strokes per tournament in four PGA appearances), and the door could well be open for another potential upset of a marquee name.

Of the three others in the group, Bradley and McCarthy have my attention for completely opposite reasons: Bradley is one of the few 2-seeds that can match Rory’s ball striking, and Denny is one of the best putters in the field (also notably gained 4.3 shots on Approach last week at Valspar). The winner of that Keegan-Denny Wednesday match would have my full attention in the live market, particularly if Rory continues to show some frustration on the greens.

Group 4: Cantlay, Harman, K.H. Lee, Taylor

Again, I’m heavily invested in Cantlay, so no reason to dive too far into this group. Of the four top seeds, I think Pat got by far the easiest road, and even if someone was to topple Cantlay in the opening round, there’s not a single name I trust to progress that far in the knockout stages. Patty Ice or nothing in this group.

Group 5: Homa, Matsuyama, Kisner, Suh

Before the draw came out on Monday, I saw Cantlay and Homa in very comparable tiers in terms of course fit. Homa’s irons have been as hot as anyone on the planet over the last few months, and he’s someone I trust wholeheartedly over an eight-foot putt to clinch a match. The draw, however, was less favorable to Max, as he gets Hideki coming off a T5 at Sawgrass, Austin CC legend Kevin Kisner, and an up-and-comer that a lot of us liked last week in Justin Suh.

Homa is still a name I’ll be monitoring throughout the week, but he certainly faces a stiffer test than Cantlay does over the first three days. Matsuyama is the man I’d consider the biggest danger to Homa’s group stage chances, but I’m not particularly compelled to bet Hideki outright in this format. The putting floor is just too for me to trust over the course of seven matches.

Group 6: Schauffele, Hoge, Wise, Davis

This is a group I’ll be monitoring very closely. Xander has had some real struggles in Austin throughout his career: most notably crashing out to Takumi Kanaya in last year's group stage. He also happens to be grouped with some of Golf Twitter’s favorite sons, and one in particular that I believe suits this venue perfectly.

Tom Hoge (currently priced at 66-1 outright), is one of the best wedge players on the planet. He ranks number one in approach proximity from inside 125 yards by a large margin and is fresh off a T3 finish at Sawgrass where he set the course record and gained 8.9 shots with his irons. Hoge is easily my favorite play from over 50-1, and if he shows any early life in his opening match with Aaron Wise, you can bet I’ll be taking a close look at his in-play price.

Group 7: Zalatoris, Fox, English, Putnam

I don’t have a ton of interest in the outright market for this group but I will be keeping an especially close eye on Will Zalatoris’s play. The community breathed a collective sigh of relief after Will’s T4 at Riviera in February, but 53rd and 73rd place finishes in Florida have quickly taken the air out of all Willy Z 2023 Masters hype. This will be the last event Zalatoris will have to revive the excitement level ahead of the year's first major. He does at least have one of the easier draws for a top seed, as Fox, English, and Putnam shouldn’t offer a ton of resistance for an in-form Zalatoris.

Group 8: Hovland, Kirk, S.W. Kim, Kuchar

Very reminiscent of Group 5: a top seed I really like (Hovland), paired with three very dangerous group mates. Kuchar has made a living on positional, wedge-intensive courses like this, and he’s shown a lot more life than you’d expect out of a 44-year-old vet. His profile actually reminds me a lot of Kisner’s last year: perfect course fit on paper, well past his peak, but has flashed some nice recent results at corollary courses.

Si Woo and Kirk are both tailor-made for a positional test like this, and both have secured victories in 2023. This is one of the few groups where I have an interest in just about everybody. Hovland in peak form is clearly the class of the four, but one off-day could easily create opportunities for any one of Kirk, Kim, or Kuch.

Group 9: Morikawa, Day, Svensson, Perez

Morikawa’s balky putter always makes him a dicey proposition in match play, although the iron play was in full form last time out at Sawgrass. Day/Svensson have both shown real life with the ball-striking as of late, they will not be easy outs, and Perez has made a semi-final here in 2021, but he has to be considered fourth best within this group.

A lot of people are penciling in Day for this group, and I do love his recent consistency, but Svensson is a sneaky tough match for him on Day 1. I’ll be keeping a close eye on how the Canadian carries over his form from a very successful Florida swing. At 125-1, he’s one of the more compelling longshots in the field.

Group 10: Finau, Kitayama, Meronk, Bezuidenhout

Finau was another name (alongside Homa), that I very much considered to complete my card pre-tournament. The ball-striking has been rock-solid to start 2023, and the only thing keeping Tony from contending every week has been some big-time regression with the short game. It shouldn’t hurt him too much in the opening round, as his iron play is on a bit of a different level compared to his group mates. But if he wants to take down the big guns en route to the final, the putter is going to need to find its range consistently from <10 feet.

Group 11: Fitzpatrick, Theegala, M.W. Lee, Spaun

Given his sub-standard wedge play, lack of birdie upside, and potential injury concerns, it’s not difficult to see Fitzpatrick as the most vulnerable top seed in the field. Theegala and Min Woo look to be the most primed to take advantage of a hobbled 1-seed, but I don’t like either of their ball-striking profiles enough to take a leap on an outright number. Instead, I believe the weakness within this group only further bolsters my case for the winner of Group 6 (Xander, Hoge, Wise, Cam Davis), as it feels like whoever comes out of that spot should be considered no worse than 50/50 against any of these four.

Group 12: Spieth, Lowry, Montgomery, Hughes

If you like 10-foot putts for par, this is the group for you. Hughes and Montgomery carry in some putrid ball-striking form and if Spieth’s driving difficulties carry over from this past Sunday, he’s capable of ejecting at any time. My eyes (as always), lean towards Lowry, but the putter has been about as bad as anyone in the field over the last 24 rounds. This is still a really nice opportunity to take a shot at 50-1, as these positional Pete Dye tracks have suited the Irishman's eyes very well over the course of his career.

Group 13: Burns, Power, Scott, Hadwin

Like Group 11, the lack of conviction I have within this group only further emboldened my case for Cantlay in Group 4. I still don’t trust Burns’ ball-striking enough to consider him a contender for these top titles, Adam Scott’s iron play has taken a nosedive, and Hadwin just crashed and burned in a premier spot for him at Innisbrook. Seamus would be my pick out of this group: as he made the quarterfinals here last year and boasts a stellar track record on shorter golf courses. Not nearly enough conviction to consider an outright investment. I can only hope Cantlay’s warmed up sufficiently enough to send the Group 13 survivor out to pasture on Saturday morning. 

Group 14: Hatton, Henley, Herbert, Griffin

I missed the train on the Hatton 40-1 posted on DraftKings all weekend, but I congratulate those that were able to catch it. Despite his winless drought extending to over two years, Tyrell comes into this week playing some of the best golf of his life: finishing 2nd, 4th, and 6th in three of his last four starts and ranking inside the top 10 in a multitude of key stats (SG: OTT, Good Drive %, SG: APP, Birdie Chances Created, Birdies or Better Gained). He’s one of the few players I trust in every phase of the game and if recent form is anything to go off, Henley, Herbert, and Griffin all lag far behind the Englishman’s current pace. 25/1 is still a move I’m considering, but not enough value there to compel me pre-tournament. 

Group 15: Young, Straka, Conners, Thompson

From one of the trendier lower seeds last year, Cam Young finds himself as the top dog of his group in 2023. It’s tough to find a more dangerous ball-striking profile (6th Off-the-Tee, 13th on Approach, 9th in Birdies or Better Gained), but the short game has really held him back from reaching that winning ceiling. Conners would seem to be his biggest threat, having come 3rd in this event last year and possessing a lot of the tools you’d like to see on a 7,100-yard golf course (accurate driving, stellar iron play).

Thompson and Straka are dangerous enough to make things interesting, but not nearly as consistent enough to trust over all five days. Seems to me like whoever is more generous with gimmes inside 5 feet has the inside track into the Round of 16. We’ll see if Canadians really are as nice as they say.

Group 16: S.J. Im, Fleetwood, Poston, McNealy

From top-to-bottom, Group 16 certainly seems like the most balanced group. There’s nobody I’m particularly interested in from an outright perspective, but Sungjae’s inconsistency with his approach play certainly makes him a prime candidate to be upset. Fleetwood and Poston both hit the ball phenomenally well at Innisbrook, and McNealy’s riding about as hot of a putter as anyone on the planet. 16 is certainly a group to take a look at in prop markets and in DFS, although the potential of getting Scheffler on Saturday morning depresses the upside I see in similarly wide-open groups like 6 and 8.

Final Shortlist Roll Call:

• Max Homa (22-1)
• Tony Finau (25-1)
• Tyrrell Hatton (25-1)
• Shane Lowry (60-1)
• Tom Hoge (66-1)
• Si Woo Kim (66-1)
• Adam Svensson (125-1)
• Cameron Davis (125-1)

 

 

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