Finding Tight End Breakouts - Champs, Chumps, and Contenders

Robert Lorge looks for fantasy football tight end breakouts heading into Week 10. He uses advanced stats for tight ends to find breakouts (champs) and fallers (chumps) to add or drop.

Week 9 was almost the first week of the NFL season where everything in the fantasy world of tight ends was right until rookie Pat Freiermuth screwed everything up. Still, we saw George Kittle, Travis Kelce and Darren Waller finish No. 2, 3 and 4 respectively in half-PPR scoring. The rookie out of Penn State ended up No. 1 overall after a two-touchdown performance on Monday Night Football.

The elite-tier of tight ends have been a bit disappointing this season. Last season, Kelce averaged 17.4 points per game with George Kittle coming in at No. 3 at 12.6 points per game. The fifth-best tight end last year was Robert Tonyan at 9.4 points per game. This season we're seeing a drastic difference. Kelce is all the way down at 13.1 points per game and the fifth-best tight end, Darren Waller is at 11.3. The difference between TE1 to TE5 is just 1.8 points compared to the eight points it was at last season.

However, despite the lower scoring from our elite options, the consistency has been much better. Last year, only four tight ends finished with 10 or more points in half-PPR scoring and through nine weeks, there are seven such players and an eight at 9.9 points per game. Last year, there were 11 tight ends who averaged eight or more points and this season there are 15 such tight ends to choose from. While fantasy managers have had to sacrifice the elite scoring, they have been provided with more consistent options.

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Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears

It was only a matter of time before Kmet had a breakout game. He garnered eight targets in the Bears' Monday night game vs the Steelers and caught six of them for 87 yards. He was the most targeted receiver and led the team in receiving yards. Not only that, but he racked up 116 air yards, which also led the team. His usage has been fantastic all season, but the lack of passing volume and poor quarterback play has held him back. While the volume didn't necessarily go up this past week, the yardage did. Justin Fields' most passing yards in a game prior to last week was 209 – he threw for 291 against the Steelers.

Top-5 TEs in Week 9 Target Share

1. Dallas Goedert 35%
2. Cole Kmet 28%
3. Dan Arnold 25%
4. Kyle Rudolph 25%
5. Tyler Conklin 25%

— Alex Johnson (@a_johnsonFF) November 9, 2021

Kmet ran a whopping 24 of his 28 total routes from the slot or out wide. Hello, wide receiver! No other Bear ran more routes from the slot than Kmet did on Monday night and this is not a new trend. Over the past three weeks, Kmet has 58 routes run out of the slot – no other Bear has over 50. Over that same period, Kmet is tied with Darnell Mooney in targets with 20.

How good was his performance in Week 9? His 116 air yards were the most among all tight ends. His 14.5 average depth of target was tied for first with George Kittle among tight ends with at least three targets. He was third in receiving yards and tied for second in receptions. The way the Bears are using Kmet, the production was not a fluke. The only question becomes how will the passing game function in the coming weeks? While it may be jumping the gun to expect Justin Fields to rattle off close to 300 yards each game, it would also be equally foolish to expect to see sub-200 performances become the norm again. As long as Fields is going to throw the ball 28–32 times and finish with around 250 yards passing, Kmet is going to be a weekly starter at the tight end position.

If there's one negative – and there is because there has to be. He's a Bear after all. Even though I'm a Packer fan and absolutely love making fun of the Bears, this isn't even that. They're just Da Bears. For the love of God Matt Nagy, why?! Why do you insist on running back-to-back fade routes to Jimmy Graham? Why is Jimmy Graham even on the roster? Why do you let Justin Fields use his best weapons to get into scoring position and then force him to throw the ball to Jimmy Graham? I do not understand because it is not understandable. It lacks reason. It lacks common sense. As a Packer fan, I can't help but feel bad for Bears fans and in the same breath, I pray Matt Nagy never leaves. Can someone ask Matt Nagy this – you have All-Pro wide receiver Allen Robinson on your roster who hasn't dropped an end-zone target since 2018 and you have a highly drafted tight end who is having the game of his life, why do you throw the ball to a 47-year-old tight end? Okay, I'm done now. This "Matt Nagy is an idiot" paragraph has gone on for far too long, much longer than I anticipated. The bottom line, Cole Kmet is good. The usage is fantastic. Buy Cole Kmet, just maybe don't expect too many touchdowns because you know, Matt Nagy.

Hunter Henry & Jonnu Smith, New England Patriots

There were hopes in fantasy circles these two guys could co-exist in a New England scheme that saw Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez dominate several years ago, but that hasn't come close to being the case. It doesn't seem Smith has been fully healthy this season. He's played over 50% of the team's snaps on just three occasions this season. Let's look at how the team is using these two tight ends differently.

Henry is averaging 38 air yards per game, which is tied for 14th among tight ends averaging at least three targets per game (39 total). Smith is averaging 16 air yards per game, which is 36th out of the 39 qualifying tight ends. Henry averages a healthy 8.9 depth of target, which ranks ninth – Smith's average is just 4.4 yards, which is good for 37th. A big part of this is the way they're being used in the Patriots' offense.

Henry has run 89% of routes from the slot or out wide position. Smith has only run 61% of his routes from those same positions. Despite all of this, their target volume is largely equal. Henry has a slight lead over Smith, 4.2 to 3.8 targets per game. Despite the similar target totals, it's the drastic difference in what kind of targets they're receiving, which is creating a clear difference in their overall effectiveness for fantasy value.

Henry has 316 yards receiving compared to the 193 Jonnu carries, but the bigger difference is in the touchdown department. Henry has five compared to Jonnu's one. This number, however, is quite deceiving. Despite the disparity in touchdowns scored, their red zone usage has been identical. They've each received nine red zone targets and they've each caught five of them. Both are tied for sixth among tight ends in red zone targets. Smith actually has more targets than Henry does inside the 10-yard line, five to four. Jonnu is second among all tight ends in regards to targets inside the 10. What all this means is, fantasy managers should be expecting Henry's touchdown rate to regress a bit. Henry is tied for first in touchdowns among tight ends, despite being 21st in targets. The other part of this is based on Jonnu's red zone usage, he should likely score a few more touchdowns moving forward than he has done thus far.

However, it won't be enough to make Jonnu fantasy relevant. Smith is nothing more than a dart throw at this point and a poor one at that. He's even off the streaming radar currently. Henry is being propped up by his touchdowns currently, which is likely to decline soon. Despite his current TE8 standing, fantasy managers shouldn't be treating Henry as anything more than a touchdown-dependant TE2. He's been held to 36 yards receiving or less in seven out of nine games. If he doesn't score, he's very likely to disappoint. The floor is quite low and the ceiling isn't worth chasing.

Dan Arnold, Jacksonville Jaguars

Dan Arnold absolutely needs to be on your fantasy roster unless you're holding one of the top-six tight ends. No, I'm not joking. If you're streaming tight ends, Arnold is the answer to your weekly problem. Since Week 5, which was the second week after his trade to the Jaguars, Arnold is the leading receiver for the Jaguars. Not Laviska Shenault. Not Marvin Jones Jr. Dan Arnold. He's tied for first with 26 targets. He's first in receiving yards with 219. How many tight ends lead their team in receiving? Two? Maybe three? And that's not to say that Arnold is going to be Travis Kelce or Darren Waller or Mark Andrews – he's not, but he doesn't need to be. That kind of volume at tight end, it plays. And it plays every single week.

Since Week 5, Arnold is sixth among all tight ends in targets per game, seventh in receptions, eighth in receiving yards and 10th in air yards per game. That's some really good standing. He's averaging 7.5 fantasy points per game in half-PPR scoring and that's with zero touchdowns. Which of course, is not ideal, but it does present upside. He's currently TE16 from Weeks 5–9 in points per game, however, all but three tight ends ahead of him have scored touchdowns. Just a single touchdown would have him in the top-10.

JAX receiving usage

Marvin Jones - 26 routes, 5 tgt, 3-21 (51 air), 5.1 PPR
Shenault - 24 routes, 4 tgt, 4-24 (4 air), 6 PPR
Jamal Agnew - 20 routes, 5 tgt, 3-27 (6 air), 6.8 PPR
DAN ARNOLD - 23 routes, 7 tgt, 4-60 (50 air), 10 PPR

Arnold should NOT be on waivers

⬇️⬇️

— Josh Larky ↗️ (@jlarkytweets) November 10, 2021

The lack of red zone targets are likely going to hold Arnold back a bit from a fantasy-scoring perspective – he only has two in four weeks – but that doesn't mean he's not a valuable fantasy commodity. The other downside to Arnold, at least right now, is his average depth of target which is at a disgustingly low 5.7 yards. These two factors solidly lower his ceiling, but the floor is outstanding and that's because of the volume.

There are only 7–8 tight ends who are going to see 7+ targets per week and right now, Arnold is one of them. Since Arnold became the weekly starter in Jacksonville, there are only six tight ends who are running more routes per game from the slot position than Arnold. He is seeing over 80% of his routes come from either the slot or out wide position. He's an absolute buy right now especially with the Jaguars likely to find themselves in pass-heavy game scripts more often than not.

Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh Steelers

So which rookie tight end was supposed to light the world on fire again? Just kidding because Kyle Pitts has really been amazing. In fact, I don't think he's getting enough recognition for what he's doing as a rookie. Although, the flip side of that is Pitts isn't really a tight end. He's just a wide receiver who happens to be a bit bigger than other receivers so we call him a tight end. Anyways, Freiermuth... welcome to the NFL! Just as Kmet was breaking out for the Bears, Freiermuth decided he would introduce himself to the league as well and boy, did he ever!

He received six targets and managed to catch five of them for 43 yards and two scores. Both were contested catches in the end zone and Ben Roethlisberger showed a lot of trust in the rookie to throw him those jump balls. Over the last three games, the former Nittany Lion has corralled 16 of 19 targets and turned them into 145 yards and three scores. It's been very impressive. It has helped a great deal that fellow tight end, Eric Ebron, missed two of those three contests. Maybe not coincidentally, those last three games have been played without JuJu Smith-Schuster who was lost for the season.

Pat Freiermuth has a 20% target share since Week 6 (games without JuJu)

— Frank Stampfl (@Roto_Frank) November 10, 2021

Freiermuth has likely played his way into a prominent role in the passing offense moving forward and he'll likely continue to work ahead of Ebron even once he returns. Let's take a look at his usage in Week 6 vs Weeks 8–9. Week 6 was played with Ebron where Freiermuth had seven receptions for 58 yards.

In Week 6, the rookie played 60% of the snaps compared to 75% in Weeks 8–9. This resulted in a rather significant route participation difference between the two timeframes as well. In Week 6, Freiermuth ran a route on just 55% of Big Ben's dropbacks. In Weeks 8–9, that number jumped to 78%. Interestingly, his wide receiver snaps – in the slot or out wide – didn't differ very much. In Week 6, he ran a route out of a wide receiver position on 30% of Pittsburgh's pass attempts compared to 36% in Weeks 8–9.

Another aspect that was fairly similar regardless of Ebron's status was Freiermuth's average depth of target. Without Ebron, it was 3.6 yards and with him, it was 5.8. Either way, that's a very low number. As were his air yards where he's averaged just 28 air yards per game from Weeks 6–9. His target share without Ebron was at 21.7% and in Weeks 8–9 and 17.9% in Week 6 with him.

Even if Freiermuth maintains a hold on the starter's role in Pittsburgh, Ebron will likely cut into his role as he had done from Weeks 1–6. What to expect of Freiermuth moving forward likely falls between what we saw in the first six weeks of the season compared to what we've seen in the past two weeks. The excitement around the rookie is certainly justified, although it's likely getting a bit too high after his two-touchdown performance.

Chase Claypool did miss practice on Wednesday and seemed to suffer an injury of some sort late in the Chicago game. It sounds as if Claypool escaped a season-ending injury, but will likely miss games moving forward. If that's the case, fantasy managers should continue using Freiermuth as they have the past two weeks with Ebron out. Ebron was limited and looks poised to return this week. These are two storylines fantasy managers will need to follow to get a good idea on Freiermuth's value moving forward.

Tyler Conklin, Minnesota Vikings

Conklin has put together back-to-back outings of seven targets and he's been modestly productive with them. He's caught 10 of them for 102 the past two weeks. It's nothing to get overly excited about, but seven targets for a tight isn't nothing. So is Conklin someone fantasy managers should be looking at as someone who can be trusted?

The answer is... kind of. He has five games with four or more catches and five games with 40 or more yards. He's the third option in the passing attack for Minnesota, which means he's a fairly safe option week-to-week and he'll have a few games where he'll pop. Is that enough to get on our fantasy radar? The real answer is not really. He's averaging just 26 air yards per game, which ranks 24th at the position among those who are averaging at least three targets and his average depth of target is even worse, 35th at 4.7 yards. Such low numbers show a limited amount of upside. His weekly receiving yardage is unlikely to ever be high considering how close he is used to the line of scrimmage, which means he's highly dependent on touchdowns. That's true of most tight ends, to be fair.

On the season, Conklin has only run 33% of his snaps from the slot or out wide position. That lines up perfectly with his air yards and average depth of target. As a tight end who runs the majority of his routes from the in-line position, he's not threatening the defense down the field. He is averaging 5.5 targets per game, which is just slightly ahead of K.J. Osborn for third among Viking receivers. Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen are commanding such a high target share, 24.1% and 23.4% respectively, that it leaves everyone fighting for crumbs. Conklin just so happens to be first in line for those.

He has a solid enough role in the offense that he can be a viable streamer in the right matchup, but his utilization leaves a lot to be desired. He's nothing more than touchdown-dependent TE2 who fantasy managers can use when the matchup is right.

George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers

This is the only time George Kittle is going to end up in this article because well, he's George Kittle. I actually feel bad writing his name with the others here. One of these is very much not like the others, but after a three-game absence, I think it makes sense to look at just how elite his usage was. It's always been elite, but he's struggled with injuries this season and last and it feels he's beginning to slip a bit when talking about the truly elite fantasy tight ends. Make no mistake, he is absolutely that.

George Kittle (calf) went off in return Sunday:

* 43-of-59 snaps
* 33 routes on 49 Jimmy G dropbacks
* 14 snaps slot or wide
* 8 targets for a 20% share
* 6-101-1 result

— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) November 8, 2021

Kittle has now played in five games this season and fantasy managers shouldn't forget the kind of elite asset that Kittle is. Over those five games, the 49ers attempted a total of 176 passes. During that time, he has run a total of 152 routes, or 86%. If we eliminate Week 1 where Kittle blocked on over 38% of the team's pass attempts – he hasn't blocked on more than 16% in any other game – his route participation jumps up to 90%. Very few tight ends have that kind of route participation. Kittle is the rare tight end who doesn't see his average depth of target and air yards suffer despite his lack of wide receiver usage. Out of his 152 routes this season, only 46% have come from a wide receiver position, but that hasn't mattered.

Kittle is averaging the fifth-most targets per game among tight ends, fifth-most receiving yards per game, sixth-most air yards and 14th highest average depth of target. He has a 23.9% target share, which ranks second among tight ends and his market share of his team's air yards is 25.1%, which ranks third among tight ends. His yards per reception average is 13.1, which is seventh among tight ends averaging at least three targets per game. Needless to say, George Kittle is elite. He proved that in Week 9. Fantasy managers should be ecstatic to have him back in their lineups.

Evan Engram, New York Giants

There are very few tight ends who have the ability to disappoint fantasy managers quite like Evan Engram can. Despite Sterling Shepard missing four games, Kenny Golladay missing three, Darius Slayton missing three and Saquon Barkley missing four games, Engram has been unable to distinguish himself. This has been a common trend for Engram. Despite being the No. 4 most targeted tight end last year with 102, he finished as just the TE16 in half-PPR scoring. The trend has only continued this season.

Engram has been in an absolute smash spot for fantasy scoring this season, just like last year, and has simply not delivered. Despite playing more games than Shepard and Golladay, he's been out-targeted by both. Through seven games, he's run 208 routes and 175 of them have been from a wide receiver position. That is 84% of his routes, most of which are coming out of the slot – 160 of them. Despite this awesome usage, his average depth of target is a putrid 4.5 yards and he's averaging only 23 air yards per game. The air yards rank 27th among tight ends averaging at least three targets per game of which there are 39. His average depth of target ranks 36th.

Engram is the rare occasion where despite his excellent utilization, fantasy managers have seen this movie before. Engram is once again receiving the kind of usage we love to see our fantasy tight ends have, but the lack of effectiveness has led to a limited number of targets. He's averaging just 5.1 targets per game, which ranks 15th among tight ends. Despite that volume and having the upper hand he has based on where he's running his routes vs his other tight ends, he's just 23rd among the position in receiving yards per game.

Out of his seven games played, he has four with three or fewer catches, as well as four with less than 30 yards. With Shepard's injury likely to keep him out for the next couple of weeks based on recent reports, Engram has a chance to stay fantasy-relevant, but based on what he's done recently with ample opportunity, fantasy managers shouldn't be expecting too much. Engram is nothing but a touchdown dependent TE2 fantasy managers should be looking to use in only the best of matchups.

Adam Trautman, New Orleans Saints

I'll be the first to admit, I loved Trautman this offseason as a late-round dart throw to any drafter who was planning on waiting until the very end of their draft to select a tight end. First off, you had Jameis Winston at quarterback and his love for throwing to the position in Tampa Bay is well-documented. You had the draft capital the Saints used to draft him the previous season – quite literally all of their Day 3 picks. He had a very productive final season in Dayton and he was the lone tight end on the roster after Jared Cook left. There were lots of reasons for optimism.

However, the first few weeks of the season didn't play out that way and Trautman quickly made his way to the waiver wire and with good reason. Not only was the production terrible, but his utilization was bad too. In Weeks 1–4, he played 74% of the total snaps. From Weeks 5–9, he's been above 86% in every single game. The biggest problem in Weeks 1–4 was the lack of routes. He ran a route on just 58% of Winston's dropbacks. Between Weeks 5–9, that number has jumped to 81% route participation. Now, that's what we're talking about.

Adam Trautman this week:

- 88% snap share (higher than any WR/RB/TE)
- 80% route participation
- 17% target share (tied Kamara, only behind Deonte Harris)
- 29 snaps at WR. Up from the previous 3 weeks.

Trautman will be moving further up the list this week.
Big waiver add. https://t.co/7mvRJSVps5

— Andrew Cooper (@CoopAFiasco) November 8, 2021

That's not the only positive in terms of Trautman's usage that fantasy managers should be excited about. In Weeks 1-4, he ran just 44% of his routes from a wide receiver position. In Weeks 5–9, that number jumps up to 64%. We're seeing positive signs in almost every facet of his game. In Weeks 1–4, Trautman only averaged nine air yards per game with just a 4.5 average depth of target. In the last four games (Week 6 bye), those numbers have jumped to 30 air yards per game and a 6.6 average depth of target. His targets per game went from just two up to 4.5. His target share has climbed from 9.8% to 13.5%. In the last four games, Trautman has been over 35 yards receiving three times.

His more recent usage has put him on the streamer radar in plus matchups, and if this continues, he could find himself living up to the potential many fantasy managers had during the offseason. With Michael Thomas now out for the season, there's a pathway for Trautman to become one of the top target earners in New Orleans. Unfortunately with the injury to Winston, this team will likely continue to operate as a run-heavy offense, which will limit the overall volume available to go around.

With that in mind, it's unlikely Trautman becomes anything more than a high-end TE2, but there's upside here now that wasn't present just a few weeks ago. He's certainly someone to keep an eye on as this offense evolves and to observe who either Trevor Siemian or Taysom Hill lock onto after Alvin Kamara.

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