What's up RotoBallers. In this column, I will be taking a look at the main card for Fight Night 131. My analysis will help you with your DraftKings MMA lineups. I will be keeping track based on picking winners and losers, starting fresh for 2018. I will also predict how the fight will be finished, but that will not reflect in the records (Justin's 2018 Record: 30-17).

MMA has one of the best sweats in DFS. Two fighters compete at a time with only one coming out as the winner. It's the best feeling in the world when you are watching the main event of a show and know you need a first round knockout to win the entire tournament. And nothing feels worse than when you need a first round knockout by Stipe Miocic to win thousands of dollars in a tournament, but when he lands that knockout punch, you realize that you placed 14th because Jacare Souza was too dominant in a previous fight. This was a serious scenario that I had to live through when Miocic won the Heavyweight Championship. Without anymore waiting, here are my DFS lineup picks and DraftKings analysis for the main card at Fight Night 131.

Editor's Note: Interested in RotoBaller's MMA DFS Cheat Sheet with advanced fighter statistics, deep analysis and detailed insights from MMA DFS Expert Justin Bales? Let us know here.

 

Gian Villante vs Sam Alvey

Alvey looked good in his 205 debut, but he also had a man walk towards him with his hands around his waist. Villante has been on a bit of a skid recently, but he has been losing to tough competition more often than not. Overall, neither fighter truly has any impressive wins in their last few fights. Alvey utilizes a counter-punching approach, while throwing heavy hands, while Villante is a more active fighter. This fight essentially comes down to Villante’s chin. If his chin holds up, he will have the advantage. That’s far from a guarantee, though, and I feel as if this fight is extremely close to a pick ‘em.

Gian Villante via Unanimous Decision

 

Julio Arce vs Daniel Teymur

Arce looked good in his UFC debut, while Teymur displayed solid striking, but very little grappling credentials. While Arce is a fighter that loves to strike, I would imagine his gameplan is to grapple with Teymur, who showed holes in his last fight. Arce is no slouch in the striking department, though, and he has a very real chance of winning if this fight stays standing. Overall, Arce simply has more ways to win this fight and more tools if the fight is not going his way. Teymur is wild, powerful, and does come with some submission potential. This is one of the more interesting fights on the card, but Arce should be able to edge his opponent this weekend.

Julio Arce via Unanimous Decision

 

Jake Ellenberger vs Ben Saunders

This fight is a true toss up. Neither fighter should truly be in the UFC at this point in their careers, and this could potentially be a retirement fight. Ellenberger is likely the better striker, but I can’t ignore the vicious knockout he suffered at the hands of Mike Perry. Ben Saunders was also knocked out in his last fight, but he displayed some semblance of a chin before that happened. Saunders likely has the slightly better chin at this point in his career, and in a fight that is almost guaranteed to end in a knockout, I’ll side the with the better chin.

Ben Saunders, TKO, 2nd Round

 

Walt Harris vs Daniel Spitz

Harris is the bigger, faster, and stronger fighter in this bout. He has the takedown defense to keep this standing, and if that’s the case, he has the clear advantage. He’s the significantly better striker, and I do not particularly think this fight will be very close. Keep in mind, they are both heavyweights, but it’s tough to side with Spitz against a fighter like Harris.

Walt Harris, TKO, 1st Round

 

Gregor Gillespie vs Vinc Pichel

Gillespie has been nothing short of spectacular in his UFC career. He is 4-0, finishing each of his last three fights. He has displayed elite wrestling to go along with solid striking. Pichel is no slouch himself, and I feel this fight will be significantly closer than Vegas is suggesting. Gillespie is somewhat small for the division, and Pichel may be able to take advantage of that. With that being said, Pichel lost the only fight that his opponent landed a takedown. Gillespie is a relentless wrestler, and it’s tough to believe that Pichel will easily be able to neutralize that wrestling. Pichel has the power to change this fight with one punch, but Gillespie has a serious advantage in skill.

Gregor Gillespie via Unanimous Decision

 

Jimmie Rivera vs Marlon Moraes

 

This is an elite main event fight. Both fighters are coming off impressive wins, and they are two of the fastest rising fighters in the division. Rivera is the more active fighter, but he’s also more hittable. Both fighters also come with tremendous takedown defense, suggesting we could potentially see 25 minutes of striking from these two. This fight is so close that it is almost impossible to pick a winner, but Moraes certainly has the finishing edge over Rivera. I believe the power Moraes possesses will be enough to slightly separate him in what should be one of the best fights of the year.

Marlon Moraes via Unanimous Decision