What's up RotoBallers. In this column, I will be taking a look at the main card for Fight Night 126. My analysis will help you with your DraftKings MMA lineups. I will be keeping track based on picking winners and losers, starting fresh for 2018. I will also predict how the fight will be finished, but that will not reflect in the records (Justin's 2018 Record: 10-7).

MMA has one of the best sweats in DFS. Two fighters compete at a time with only one coming out as the winner. It's the best feeling in the world when you are watching the main event of a show and know you need a first round knockout to win the entire tournament. And nothing feels worse than when you need a first round knockout by Stipe Miocic to win thousands of dollars in a tournament, but when he lands that knockout punch, you realize that you placed 14th because Jacare Souza was too dominant in a previous fight. This was a serious scenario that I had to live through when Miocic won the Heavyweight Championship. Without anymore waiting, here are my DFS lineup picks and DraftKings analysis for the main card at Fight Night 126.

Editor's Note: Interested in RotoBaller's MMA DFS Cheat Sheet with advanced fighter statistics, deep analysis and detailed insights from MMA DFS Expert Justin Bales? Let us know here.

 

Sage Northcutt vs Thibault Gouti

Northcutt is a top prospect, who enters this fight with a 4-2 UFC record. He has a versatile offense, displaying power in his strikes to go along with decent grappling credentials. He gets a matchup against Gouti, who surprisingly has never landed a takedown in the UFC. Gouti is the more active striker, but Northcutt is the more accurate striker with better defense. Northcutt would be at the highest risk of losing this fight if it becomes a grappling match, but even so, Northcutt is no slouch on the ground himself. Young fighters also tend to take huge leaps in progress in their early year. I expect Northcutt to come out significantly better than his last fight, resulting in another win.

Sage Northcutt, TKO, 3rd Round

 

Steven Peterson vs Brandon Davis

This quietly has Fight of the Night potentially, as both fighters love striking at a high rate. Peterson lost his Tuesday Night Contender Series fight against Benito Lopez, but won his next fight via technical knockout to get a call from the UFC. Davis won his fight on DWTNCS, but then lost his UFC debut against Kyle Bochniak. Davis lost a decision because of the defensive style of Bochniak. This fight will feature significantly less defense, as both fighters love throwing without avoiding shots. Peterson could look to take this fight to the ground, but Davis has featured strong takedown defense early in his UFC career. If this fight turns into a striking matchup, as it should, Davis has the advantage.

Brandon Davis via Unanimous Decision

 

Thiago Alves vs Curtis Millender

This is one of the more difficult fights on the card to pick. Alves has enjoyed a great career in the UFC, but his tremendous power is seemingly gone, as he has only one knockout since 2008, and that knockout was a body kick. Millender has some newly found power, as three of his five career knockouts have come in his last four fights. With that being said, I simply do not feel Millender is likely to knockout Alves. If this fight goes the distance, I feel Alves is the more efficient striker. He also is the stockier, stronger fighter, and will likely be able to dictate where this fight takes place. Essentially, this comes does to whether or not Alves can get inside on Millender, and I feel he will be able to.

Thiago Alves via Unanimous Decision

 

James Vick vs Francisco Trinaldo

Trinaldo is a fighter that bases his game on his strength and power. He gets a tough matchup against Vick, though, who is a huge 155 lbs fighter. He could easily fight at welterweight, and Trinaldo will have a difficult time controlling Vick, especially with his length. Vick is an active striker that has featured tremendous defense, as well. Trinaldo also focuses heavily on defense, but do not throw at the same rate as Vick. Furthermore, Vick has found ways to win fights, whether it is via knockout or submission. Trinaldo’s elite chin takes away the probability of a knockout, leaving Vick to win with a submission or on the judge’s scorecard. With his tremendous striking, the latter is the most likely scenario.

James Vick via Unanimous Decision

 

Derrick Lewis vs Marcin Tybura

Derrick Lewis is coming off of a tough loss against Mark Hunt, but he blamed that fight on an injured back. He now claims that his back is healthy, suggesting he will get back to the form that allowed him to win six consecutive fights. He gets a matchup against Tybura, who is coming off a loss against Fabricio Werdum. Tybura is the more well rounded fighter, but Lewis possesses elite ground and pound. This fight will likely come down to whether or not Lewis can get Tybura on the ground. Tybura’s takedown defense has held up well throughout his UFC career thus far, and I feel it will. This fight is as close of a toss up as there is on the card, but I’m siding with the slight favorite.

Marcin Tybura, TKO, 2nd Round

 

Donald Cerrone vs Yancy Medeiros

Donald Cerrone has been an elite fighter throughout his career, but he is coming off three consecutive loses. Medeiros, on the other hand, has been seen as a fighter that is closer to average, but he has won each of his last three fights. Cerrone is the more efficient striker, who also comes with the better grappling. Medeiros has good enough takedown defense to keep this fight standing, though. I’d love to side with Cerrone’s striking, but this fight has five rounds to finish. Medeiros has proven time and time again that he possesses an elite chin, while Cerrone has been knocked out in two of his last three fights. I feel Cerrone is going to land the better strikes in this fight, but Medeiros will be able to walk through them to land his own, resulting in another exciting fight.

Yancy Medeiros, TKO, 2nd Round