What's up RotoBallers. In this column, I will be taking a look at the main card for Fight Night 120. Our analysis will help you with your DraftKings MMA lineups. We will be keeping track based on picking winners and losers. We will also predict how the fight will be finished, but that will not reflect in the records (Justin's Record: 161-81).

MMA has one of the best sweats in DFS. Two fighters compete at a time with only one coming out as the winner. It's the best feeling in the world when you are watching the main event of a show and know you need a first round knockout to win the entire tournament. And nothing feels worse than when you need a first round knockout by Stipe Miocic to win thousands of dollars in a tournament, but when he lands that knockout punch, you realize that you placed 14th because Jacare Souza was too dominant in a previous fight. This was a serious scenario that I had to live through when Miocic won the Heavyweight Championship. Without anymore waiting, here are our DFS lineup picks and DraftKings analysis for the main card at Fight Night 120.

Editor's Note: Interested in RotoBaller's MMA DFS Cheat Sheet with advanced fighter statistics, deep analysis and detailed insights from MMA DFS Expert Justin Bales? Let us know here.

 

Joe Lauzon vs Clay Guida

This is an extremely interesting card. Joe Lauzon and Clay Guida are both well past their primes, but they make for a fun fight against each other. They are both fairly well rounded fighters at this point in their careers. Lauzon is a submission specialist, though, while Guida is a cardio machine. Lauzon is only 2-3 in his last five fights, though, and his one win was more than questionable against Marcin Held. Guida is coming off a win against Erik Koch and he was easily beating Brian Ortega before he was caught with a knee with only a few seconds left in the fight. I’m not completely sure what to make of this fight, but I believe Guida’s cardio and wrestling will be enough to pull out a decision victory.

Clay Guida via Unanimous Decision

 

Raphael Assuncau vs Matthew Lopez

The UFC continues to feed Raphael Assuncao up-and-coming fighters and he continues to set them down. He has only lost once since 2011, which was a fight against new bantamweight champion T.J. Dillashaw. Matthew Lopez is still fairly new to the UFC, but he has looked good with a 2-1 record through his first three fights. He is a fighter that can finish fights in multiple different ways, as he has both power and slick submissions. With that being said, Assuncao is a difficult fighter to finish and Lopez has had a few issues with cardio in the past. Assuncao is such a defensive wizard that it will be difficult for Lopez to hit him on the feet or get him to the ground. If this fight stays standing, which is the most likely scenario, Assuncao should have no problems picking apart Lopez’s striking.

Raphael Assuncao via Unanimous Decision

 

Nate Marquardt vs Cezar Ferreira

Cezar Ferreira has struggled at times in the UFC, but he has finally found his footing, winning three of his last four fights. He gets a matchup against an aging fight in Nate Marquardt, who has a record of 3-8 since 2013. Marquardt has looked extremely hesitant recently, and that will not work against someone like Ferreira, who is always attacking for a takedown. Once Ferreira gets this fight to the ground, which will inevitably happen, it simply becomes a question of whether or not he can finish Marquardt. Keep in mind, Marquardt does come with tremendous power, but it will be difficult for him to land a knockout shot while spending the majority of this fight on the ground.

Cezar Ferreira, Submission, 2nd Round

 

Junior Albini vs Andrei Arlovski

I remember watching Junior Albini’s UFC debut live in New York. No one could believe how easily he handled Timothy Johnson, including myself. He now gets a matchup against Andrei Arlovski, who has lost each of his last five fights. Arlovski’s chin is nearly nonexistent at this point, but he does come with elite power in his hands. I’m not sure if Albini is going to want to test that power in this fight. Albini has slick submissions for a heavyweight if he can drag this fight to the ground. I’m aware that is no easy task against Arlovski, but it is Albini’s safest route to a win. With that being said, I also feel Albini has an advantage on the feet, as well. These are heavyweights, though, and anything can happen with their power.

Junior Albini, Submission, 1st Round

 

Matt Brown vs Diego Sancez

These are two legends of the sport going toe to toe this weekend. It should be a fun fight, but it has no true implications on the UFC because both fighters are on their way out. Brown has lost five of his last six fights with his only win coming in surprising fashion against Tim Means. He has fought elite competition, though, including Donald Cerrone, Demian Maia, and Robbie Lawler. Sanchez, on the other hand, has gone 3-3 in his last six fights. With that being said, he is a fighter that is known for an elite chin that seems to be vanishing before our very eyes. Sanchez has been knocked out in the first round in two of his last three fights. Brown is a powerful fighter, who likely will not be looking to go 15 minutes this weekend. I believe this fight is significantly closer than the odds suggest, but I simply have no faith in Sanchez’s chin at this point, especially against a powerful fighter in Brown.

Matt Brown, TKO, 2nd Round

 

Dustin Poirier vs Anthony Pettis

This is the fight everyone has been waiting for. Poirier was tearing through the division before suffering a loss to Michael Johnson in 2016. He then beat Jim Miller and was winning against Eddie Alvarez before an accidental knee turned the fight into a no contest. Anthony Pettis failed to make weight in a featherweight title fight, which resulted in him moving up a weight class. He looked like the elite fighter we all remember him as against Jim Miller in that fight. Poirier is a different beast than Miller, but it was impressive nonetheless. Poirier loves to turn fights into firefights, which may not be a good decision against someone with the power of Pettis. With that being said, I believe Poirier’s activity will be the difference in this fight. He is an extremely active fighter that can fight for five rounds. Pettis should find a new home in this division, but I do not believe he will be able to keep up with someone as talented as Poirier at this point in his career.

Dustin Poirier via Unanimous Decision