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John breaks down fantasy football rookie sleepers and risers for Week 12 of 2024. Which NFL rookies from 2024 could be fantasy football league winners?
We're getting awfully close to the fantasy football playoffs, and it's been an interesting year for rookies. Unfortunately, even some that seemed cemented into league-winner status have had huge drop-offs in production, but yet others have emerged. Extracting value wherever you can is vitally important.
Unfortunately, there's an upcoming squeeze. With trade deadlines nearing in many leagues and already having passed in countless others, it's become a lot harder to find league-winners. However, the payoff becomes much bigger when you do, and often, rookies start playing better in the second half of the season.
Anything you can do to get an edge can make a big difference this late in the season, whether it helps you sneak into the playoffs or sets you up for a run in the fantasy postseason. So who should you try to snag this late on? Which first-year players could bring you to glory?
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Will Finally Get His First Start, Act Accordingly: Jonathon Brooks
Brooks can still probably be had for cheap. His roster percentage has remained stubbornly high throughout the season, and he's rostered in 62% of Sleeper leagues, but in deeper PPR leagues he could still be available. It's highly likely that if you're in any leagues where the trade deadline hasn't passed, you could pick him up for cheap.
How I thought it’d feel to activate Jonathon Brooks off the fantasy IR vs. how it actually felt pic.twitter.com/FrLJGysRz2
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) November 19, 2024
Those who rostered him for the whole season certainly haven't been happy for the outcome, but it's possible he gains a solid pass-catching role and has an impact down the stretch. He has more upside than most desperation starters at this point, though it will be important to monitor his snap counts.
His best-case scenario would come if lead back Chuba Hubbard were to suffer an injury. The only other back on the roster to get significant touches this season, Miles Sanders (ankle) won't be playing in Week 12, and could miss even more time, or not be 100% when he returns.
Overall, we've had one of the worst possible outcomes for Brooks' fantasy value, but there's still a glimmer of hope, and he should be stashed on benches for now.
Pounce Amid Pessimism: Brian Thomas Jr.
Questions are swirling around the Jacksonville Jaguars situation right now. They're on a bye this week, Thomas has had three mostly disappointing games in a row, scoring just 6.2 and 3.2 PPR fantasy points in Weeks 9-10 before racking up 13.6 in a blowout loss to the Detroit Lions.
The Jags are franchise steeped in misery, but Thomas could have a solid run in the fantasy football playoffs. He faces a tough schedule for WRs, but he's an absolute nightmare of a coverage assignment. If a fantasy manager has Thomas and is skeptical that quarterback Trevor Lawrence will return, you could capitalize.
It's so insane that Brian Thomas Jr. can create this much separation on horizontally breaking routes.
He's absolutely terrifying as a vertical threat,,, AND he can do this? pic.twitter.com/L5tngxM7DR
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 18, 2024
He's an absurdly talented athlete with a massive ceiling, and even with QB and New England Patriots exile Mac Jones throwing to him, he gets so wide open sometimes that he can easily make catches and gain yards after his grabs.
The fact is that BTJr does a lot of things that he doesn't widely get credited for in the fantasy community because he's on an absolutely horrible team. But even garbage time production counts for fantasy football scores. You shouldn't ignore his talents and capabilities. If you're in need of a high-upside FLEX player, he could be it.
HOW DID BRIAN THOMAS JR CONTORT HIS BODY LIKE THAT pic.twitter.com/NAtTJUXuz0
— Arye Pulli (@AryePulli) November 17, 2024
He may be a boom-or-bust WR for the rest of the season, but you're less likely to win games with low-ceiling "safe" players populating your rosters come playoff time.
Could Be Breaking Out, But Got Hurt: Keon Coleman
Buffalo Bills wide receiver Keon Coleman (wrist) had his potential breakout cut short by a wrist injury that's now sidelined him for two games. Many fantasy managers may be willing to trade him, as he has a bye in Week 12. But if you can trade for him cheaply and stash him, he could prove well worth the investment.
Keon Coleman gets open for the 44-yard catch!
📺: #TENvsBUF on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/xAxHkXXxwV— NFL (@NFL) October 20, 2024
He's the perfect example of "many rookies break out midway or late into their first season", and he has quarterback Josh Allen throwing him the ball. He'll also benefit from WR Amari Cooper (wrist) drawing away coverage from him. When healthy, Coleman could be a difference maker, and already appears to have the trust of his quarterback.
He should be a locked in WR3/FLEX for the rest of the year, with added upside for his boom games.
Buy If You Can Get Him Cheap: Malik Nabers
The New York Giants benched their starting quarterback, Daniel Jones, for Tommy Devito. It's pretty obvious this is part of a strategy to tank, but it could potentially give Nabers some upside in PPR leagues. If the Tommy Cutlets locks on to Leek and spams him with targets, it could work out in PPR.
Everyone wondering how NYG's move to Tommy DeVito will affect Malik Nabers
We remember the chicken cutlets & sacks but DeVito did challenge downfield despite a low ADoT
With Nabers' talent + soft secondaries on deck he could be fine #Giants100 pic.twitter.com/wt3W8VulMj
— John Laghezza MLB / NFL Moving Averages (@JohnLaghezza) November 20, 2024
It's an interesting situation because it's DeVito's best bet to look like a serviceable quarterback. In NYG's games before it all fell apart due to losing their star left tackle, Andrew Thomas, Nabers proved that he was a transcendent talent. He's had incredible usage, and his rest-of-season schedule is incredibly easy.
It’s Time To Buy Malik Nabers 📈 Amazing volume and an incredibly friendly rest of season schedule 😤 pic.twitter.com/8ENUR5bKWV
— Upper Hand Fantasy (@upperhandffb) November 6, 2024
He'll face three of the seven worst teams in the league at stopping opposing WRs from getting fantasy points (the Atlanta Falcons, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and Baltimore Ravens). He also has a matchup with the New Orleans Saints, who traded away their best cornerback, Marshon Lattimore (hamstring), and just got diced up by the Cleveland Browns.
It's likely that Giants head coach and offensive playcaller Brian Daboll will continue to feature Nabers heavily in the passing game, and that could make a big difference in fantasy leagues. Target Leek and trade for him if you can get him for cheap!
So What Should I Do If I Want To Win My League?
Even this late in the season, acquiring a rookie through trade can help your fantasy team immensely. Players who have easy upcoming schedules or whose managers are lower on them than they should be can produce very well down the stretch. Go get some of these guys!
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