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Aidin Ebrahimi's fantasy football projections for every 4,000-yard passer in the NFL for 2025. His quarterback analysis and stat projections for fantasy football, including Josh Allen, Jared Goff, Michael Penix Jr. and more.
2,575. That's the number of every single player who has ever attempted a pass in NFL history, according to Pro Football Reference's database. Of those 2,575 players, only 74 of them have ever had a 4,000-yard season. So yeah, throwing for over 4,000 yards is a big deal.
It's not the be-all and end-all for QBs, but it's still a pretty important milestone. 1999 was the first season that saw five QBs throw for over 4,000 yards, and that number doubled in 2009. In 2016, we had an all-time high of 13 different signal callers who reached the 4,000-yard mark, though that number has declined in recent years. In 2024, only six QBs threw for 4,000 yards, the first time we've had fewer than eight 4,000-yard passers since 2010.
Without further ado, let's predict the QBs who will throw for over 4,000 yards in 2025. There has been an average of 9.4 quarterbacks who have passed for over 4,000 yards in the last three seasons, so we're assuming that there will be nine quarterbacks who will reach this milestone in 2025. This list is in order of each player's passing yards in 2024.
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Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
Let's start with the 2024 NFL passing leader. Burrow has had three healthy seasons in his career so far, and has put up at least 4,400 yards in every one of them. He already has more 4,000-yard seasons than Steve Young, John Elway, and Joe Montana, and he's only getting started.
burrow threw for 4900 yards and 43 tds with this blocking for him pic.twitter.com/Dvx3J2ah7f
— 🎠 (@PlutoCooked) January 8, 2025
Burrow is statistically one of the best pocket passers ever, despite playing behind a terrible offensive line. PFF ranked the 2024 Bengals first in passing and 29th in pass blocking.
It doesn't matter who will protect him up front, as long as he stays healthy and has Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, Burrow will throw for over 4,000 yards.
Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
From a QB who has a terrible offensive line to one who has an excellent O-Line, Goff's career resurgence has been nothing short of spectacular.
Despite recording two 4,000-yard seasons and leading the Rams to a Super Bowl appearance, Goff flamed out in LA, and his first year in Detroit was terrible.
However, he managed to bounce back and has put up three consecutive seasons with over 4,400 yards, increasing his yardage, touchdowns, and completion percentage each year.
The departures of OC Ben Johnson and elite lineman Frank Ragnow might hurt, but it's hard to imagine Goff having a bad year with Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Sam LaPorta, and the electric Jahmyr Gibbs to throw to.
Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Goff isn't the only former first-overall pick who has had an inspirational career turnaround. After being dumped by the Browns, Mayfield played for the Panthers and Rams in 2022 and was on the fringes of the league when he signed a one-year "prove it" deal with the Bucs in 2023.
Baker's newest weapon in Tampa Bay 🔥 pic.twitter.com/gCJDGSujG4
— Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@Buccaneers) May 29, 2025
But against all odds, Mayfield has proven everyone wrong, recording consecutive 4,000-yard seasons and establishing himself as one of the best signal-callers in the world.
The Bucs have one of the best receiving groups in the league with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Cade Otton, Jalen McMillan, and rookie Emeka Egbuka, not to mention their running backs, who recorded 894 total receiving yards last season.
Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
Note: This segment was written before it was announced that Brandon Aiyuk and Ricky Pearsall would be placed on the PUP list. However, Purdy remains on the list due to the presence of Kittle, Jennings, and McCaffrey, not to mention the chance of Aiyuk and Pearsall returning after the first few weeks.
The 49ers' 2024 season was a nightmare and a far cry from their dominance in recent years. However, Purdy was still on track to have his second consecutive 4,000-yard season before missing the final game of the season.
Having signed a monster five-year, $265 million contract extension with the 49ers in the offseason, Purdy wants to prove his doubters wrong and shed the "one-season wonder" label.
He has Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, Jauan Jennings, and the sophomore Ricky Pearsall to throw to, but Christian McCaffrey will be the X-factor.
If CMC can return to being arguably the best receiving back in the world, Purdy won't have too much difficulty crossing the 4,000-yard mark.
Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
Stafford is aging like a fine wine. He is one of two QBs on this list who haven't had a 4,000-yard season since 2023, but that's mostly because he didn't play in the final week in 2023 and 2024 due to the Rams' playoff position being locked up in both seasons.
From Year 1 to Year 17 for Matthew Stafford 😤 pic.twitter.com/fteH2nH97Z
— NFL (@NFL) July 13, 2025
That's unlikely to be the case in 2025 due to the likely resurgence of the 49ers and Cardinals, and Stafford will have to work harder than ever to make the playoffs for the fourth time in five years as a Ram.
Luckily, Puka Nacua and new arrival Davante Adams can help him do just that. Tyler Higbee is also an underrated weapon who is ready to put an injury-plagued 2024 behind him.
Stafford also has the most 4,000-yard seasons of anyone on this list, with nine, and he's looking to join the six QBs who have 10 or more 4,000-yard seasons under their belts.
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
Allen recorded four consecutive 4,000-yard seasons from 2020 to 2023, but failed to extend that streak last year due to playing in 44.5% of his team's snaps in the final two games of the year. Still, that didn't stop him from taking home the MVP award for the first time in his career.
Despite his lack of standout receiving targets, it's hard to bet against a man who has more 4,000-yard seasons than Dan Fouts, Kurt Warner, and Steve Young. If Keon Coleman can break out and become a 1,000-yard wideout, Allen's passing volume will likely increase.
Internally, the Bills are also counting on Coleman to break out, as they didn't make a major WR addition in the offseason.
"You could tell he had been working drill-wise, weight room-wise, so [I'm] real proud of what he's done to this point in the offseason," said Bills HC Sean McDermott when asked about Coleman in the offseason.
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
It's hard to believe, but Lawrence is entering his fifth season in the NFL. Despite already having two 4,000-yard seasons in his resume, the former first-overall pick has struggled to fulfill his potential and turn into the superstar QB we all expected him to be.
Trevor Lawrence finished tied for 75th at the American Century Championship. pic.twitter.com/0RKExbdYzy
— Jamal St. Cyr (@JStCyrTV) July 13, 2025
However, 2025 will be his best chance to change the narrative. Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter are generational prospects, and new HC Liam Coen did a tremendous job as Tampa Bay's offensive coordinator last season.
Talking about Coen's offensive scheme, Lawrence said: "You have to know your stuff, but it gives you all the answers. You don't feel like you're stuck in a play that's not set up for success."
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
I'm not ready to stop gushing about Prescott. Since 2019, the Mississippi State product has averaged over 235.3 yards per game in each season, which is the number of yards per game needed to finish a 17-game season with over 4,000 yards.
Prescott has many things going for him this year. A youthful offensive line, the addition of George Pickens, which creates a scary receiving group with CeeDee Lamb, Jalen Tolbert, and Jake Ferguson, and the "odd year Dak" phenomenon, which has helped him excel in odd-numbered years since 2019.
Michael Penix Jr., Atlanta Falcons
Easily the boldest prediction on this whole list, I was originally going to pick Patrick Mahomes in Penix's place. But now that Rashee Rice is facing a potential suspension under the NFL's personal-conduct policy, the odds of Mahomes taking it easy and coasting during the regular season once again are higher than ever.
If you're curious what Patrick Mahomes thinks of QB Michael Penix Jr. and the Atlanta Falcons right now: pic.twitter.com/MkMl7Uv8Mn
— Cory Woodroof (@CoryWoodroof47) July 17, 2025
Penix is the only QB on this list who hasn't had a 4,000-yard season yet, and that's because he has only started in three games so far. However, his potential caused the Falcons to bench Kirk Cousins in his favor, and the entire fanbase is hoping Penix can lead them back to the postseason for the first time since 2017.
Penix threw for 9,544 yards in his final two years of collegiate football and impressed NFL fans by averaging 245.7 yards per game in his three career starts.
With Drake London, Darnell Mooney, Bijan Robinson, and the eighth-ranked offensive line by PFF, the Falcons are tired of waiting and are putting all their faith in Penix right now.
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