8 Breakout Hitters For Fantasy Baseball Drafts: Nick Mariano's Picks

March 11, 2026

Nick Mariano's 2026 fantasy baseball hitter breakouts to target in drafts. His favorite undervalued hitters and fantasy baseball sleepers to break out.

We've come to love the word "breakout" in the fantasy lexicon. The breakouts have the talent to set new career-best marks, but without as many obvious signals where everyone is in on them. The market price on draft day does not reflect the upside that's been hinted at.

In this column, I'll detail eight of my favorite candidates to become key breakout hitters for the 2026 fantasy baseball season. I believe these bats can blow past the draft price point and take on a featured slot in your fantasy lineups. All ADP references are taken from NFBC drafts from February 22 to March 10.

Be sure to follow RotoBallerMLB on X and bring any further questions to me @NMariano53. What eight hitters do I believe you want to highlight going into your drafts? Let's check it out!

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Kyle Stowers, OF, Miami Marlins

ADP - 127

We’ll wade into the piece with a guy who seemingly broke out, but there’s more in the tank, and we also seem to be undervaluing his 162-game pace based on a 117-game 2025 season. Many will see the seasonal stat line of 25 HRs with 73 RBI and not project that across a full year, and his missing September meant no one associates him with being a winning factor.

Stowers was yet another big bat prospect for Baltimore who couldn’t snag consistent playing time, which left him on the fantasy fringe until becoming an everyday corner outfielder for Miami following a deadline deal in ‘24. Even then, he looked overmatched, with a 34% strikeout rate and sub-.600 OPS in both August and September.

Fast forward to the first month of 2025, and Stowers hit .323 with four homers, four doubles, and a triple. He logged 34 R+RBI in 28 games, and the K rate was down to 28% with a 10.8% walk rate. May and June went well, but not anything crazy, before he exploded for a 10-homer July.

All told, the 28-year-old hadn’t had a chance to build MLB-caliber confidence for a while, but something clicked in his first offseason with a starting role lined up. If Stowers can learn to hit lefties, then we could see a true ascension. Of course, if all he does is run back his Paul Bunyan-like power against RHP, then we’ll still feast.

Of 250 hitters with at least 250 PAs against RHP in 2025, only three hitters produced a slugging percentage higher than Stowers’ .601 mark. And all three of Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, and Nick Kurtz are going considerably higher up in fantasy drafts! His 19% barrel rate was sixth, with names like Pete Alonso, Juan Soto, and Kurtz behind him.

Love Stowers

Ks a concern but chase is avg

I consider 265 xBA a plus

Hes an air pull god

47% HR/BRL is below MLB avg (well below for his skill set)

Players +100PA w/higher xwOBAcon
A.Judge
S.Ohtani
G.Stanton
K.Schwarber
N.Kurtz
J.Wood
J.Soto

35-40 HR profile

— John Laghezza MLB / NFL Moving Averages (@JohnLaghezza) March 8, 2026

There's no shortage of fun to be had with his data. His being a late bloomer, whether that’s due to needing time to unlock the potential, building confidence, or getting steady reps outside of crowded Baltimore, has led us to this opportunity. Let’s see if Stowers can keep pulling those moonshots into the Miami sky.

Francisco Alvarez, C, New York Mets

ADP - 166 (NFBC is a two-catcher format, so this gets inflated)

Alvarez may feel “done and dusted” as he enters his fifth season, yet he made his MLB debut at 20 and is far from a polished product at the dish. Folks had moved on after he required a month at Triple-A to reset. He also suffered through a torn thumb ligament and a fractured pinky by September.

The overall .256/.339/.447 triple slash with 11 HRs in 76 games won’t move many needles. But in the final 41 games, despite his injuries, he delivered a .276/.360/.561 slash line. His issues catching up to the heat were addressed, with the whiff rate against them halved while his slugging percentage doubled.

Sporting a more open stance with the bat closer to his shoulder as a “ready” position, which not only helped his timing, but it allowed his swing path to attack all fields. He did overperform his xStats during the hot stretch (.240 xBA, .487 xSLG), but I’ll call it even with the maimed hand.

Give me these mechanics with a healthy Alvarez who is still approaching his prime. We got to peek at what an unlocked Alvarez is capable of, but it was brief enough that many would’ve either missed it entirely or written it off as a blip.

Francisco Alvarez just hit one 439 feet over the batter's eye in center field. He's OPS'ing 1.636 this spring. pic.twitter.com/VcuTy91Ntx

— Anthony DiComo (@AnthonyDiComo) March 10, 2026

Tyler Stephenson, C, Cincinnati Reds

ADP - 258

Stephenson’s age-29 season should give him an excellent shot at blowing past his previous career high of 19 home runs. Many fantasy players were hopeful of a next-level breakout last year, though a spring oblique injury ruined the party. He then missed time in August after being hit on the thumb.

The man was robbed of the chance to find a groove! Toss in Great American Ball Park as a hitter-friendly cushion behind him and the surrounding cast to help inflate Stephenson's floor (as long as health holds up).

If the worse contact and horrible 33.9% strikeout rate from last year show up early, then we'll move along. However, we squint through the injuries to see an enticing 14.4% barrel rate (90th percentile) and 42.2% launch angle sweet spot rate (98th percentile).

Some players push through injury-marred campaigns with atrocious contact rates on top of poor contact, so at least we can hang our batting helmets on something. The 18.7% Pull AIR rate was a breath of fresh air after the mark fell under 13% in back-to-back seasons. We could approach 30 HRs if lessons learned from 2025 join with 2026's clean bill of health.

Miguel Vargas, 1B/3B, Chicago White Sox

ADP - 271

Vargas made some noise by hitting .263 with seven HRs in May after an icy March/April, but the cold snap returned in June. He would supply a .791 OPS after the All-Star break compared to .681 beforehand.

The .530 xSLG on competitive swings ranked 49th out of 266 hitters (min. 100 PAs). And he made the improvements while making gains with plate discipline, which was already solid. His 8.9% walk rate in the first half grew to 11.6% while the K rate only rose from 17.4% to 18%. More chances for contact help our man out.

He makes good swing decisions, as evidenced by the 89th percentile chase rate, and the launch angle sweet spot rate did climb by nearly eight percentage points (28.9% to 36.6%). He’d struggled to turn a good eye into strong contact, but his average exit velocity also climbed from 86.2 to 89.7 mph.

This writer is not suggesting that Vargas will suddenly become a 30-homer bat, but I think he can threaten 25 while delivering a steady diet of extra-base hits. The R+RBI tally should also climb as other young bats around him rise, namely Munetaka Murakami, Colson Montgomery, and Kyle Teel.

A rising tide lifts all boats! That trio also all swing lefty, which means Vargas’ righty bat should find the heart of the order. We don’t need the White Sox to make a playoff push, but they should beat last year’s mark of the fourth-lowest run output in MLB (647).

Another reason for the lesser buzz here is that Vargas was a top prospect on a stacked Dodgers team, which drew more attention and set a high bar. Those who bought his 2020 Bowman Chrome cards may not get the investment back, but let’s see if he can build on the solid signals seen in 2025.

Jordan Lawlar, 3B, Arizona Diamondbacks

ADP - 285

Lawlar has been a notable top prospect since being selected with the sixth overall pick in the 2021 MLB Draft, but has looked overwhelmed across two brief big-league stints. Last year, this amounted to a .182/.257/.288 slash with 26 strikeouts in 74 PAs.

But the man rocked 11 HRs with 20 SBs and a .313/.403/.564 line in 63 Triple-A games as well. Despite only being 22 years old, some were starting to dust off the “Quad-A” label on social media. Needless to say, it’s way too early to go there.

The reason he only played 91 total games in ‘25 and 23 in ‘24 was a torn UCL in his right thumb during spring training, then a left hamstring issue, which was injured twice. He hurt that same hamstring in late June ‘25 as well. But this spring is showing the talent shine against MLB-caliber arms.

Per Baseball Reference, Lawlar carried a respectable 7.6 Opponent Quality grade (between AA and AAA) through 29 PAs. He’d gone 8-for-23 with three homers and a 6:8 BB:K in that small sample, only to hit homer No. 4 off of Tyler Glasnow on Tuesday. That’ll up the OppQual score, eh?

Jordan Lawlar continues his strong spring with a homer off Tyler Glasnow.pic.twitter.com/RFpUetIyhN

— Eric Cross (@EricCrossMLB) March 10, 2026

This is a talent with the ability to swipe 30-40 bases and grow into his power stroke. Lawlar’s versatility will also help him find as many starts as possible, with recent work helping him add outfielder to his 3B/SS resume.

And finally, there’s the fact that he’ll hit at Chase Field. According to Statcast Park Factors, only Coors Field has a higher offensive impact on righty hitters over the last three years. It’s slightly below-average for homers, but Lawlar could lead the league in doubles or triples with those dimensions and his wheels.

Cam Smith, OF, Houston Astros

ADP - 327

Allow me to borrow some thoughts from my bold predictions piece here, as Smith could become the post-hype breakout of the year. With only 32 pro games under his belt, he earned a starting role in Houston after a scorching spring (and a lack of options for the Astros).

He opened his rookie year with a robust 28.6% line-drive rate that was second best in the league before the All-Star break, producing a 116 wRC+ before enduring a slump down the stretch. But he was young and had barely played in the minors, let alone gone through the demands of a full 162 in the bigs.

It would not be surprising to see him stronger and more comfortable on his second trip around the circuit. This should also help him take advantage of the 95th percentile sprint speed.

Smith only had eight steals on nine attempts as a rookie, which should mean the team lets him go as he sees fit. Having just turned 23 here, we may still be a couple of years away from Smith’s power potential fully emerging, but we could fly into 20 HRs and 25 SBs with a healthy average. And maybe the power does mature early?

Cam Smith didn’t just homer today, he launched a missile.

440 feet, 107.5 exit velocity pic.twitter.com/ckO5pbU86O

— Michael Schwab (@michaelschwab13) March 9, 2026

Dominic Canzone, OF, Seattle Mariners

ADP - 334

Here’s another player who came on at 27 years old, but in an abbreviated 82-game sample that didn’t kick off until June. He entered Seattle’s June 9 game and went yard, which led to frequent right field starts and an eventual .304/.362/.488 triple slash with 11 HRs and three steals over 265 PAs.

The Statcast data says he “deserved” even more. Sorting from June 9 on with the competitive swings flag ticked off, his .328 xBA ranked fifth, and the .620 xSLG ranked 11th (min. 150 PAs). The 74-point gap between his .546 SLG and the xSLG was the 15th-largest margin, so don’t go saying he was lucky.

With a 93 mph average exit velocity, nestled in between Junior Caminero and Matt Olson on the leaderboard, Canzone also managed a healthy 21.5% strikeout rate. Perhaps some of you have Canzone already mentally highlighted after playing him in DFS on September 16 (5-for-5, 3 HRs), but most aren’t aware.

That day helped him surge to a .673 xSLG in September, which trailed only Judge and Ohtani out of players who saw at least 100 pitches. To be clear, these are not presented to say that he is suddenly a top-10 bat. However, he has intriguing tools that are capable of breaking out across a full year for us.

The hope is that Canzone starts out hot enough to maintain healthy playing time in a top-heavy Mariners lineup. He can slot in at right field or designated hitter, and should outperform the likes of Luke Raley and Victor Robles (who is still not 100%).

Owen Caissie, OF, Miami Marlins

ADP - 377

Is he the next Adam Dunn, he of the Three True Outcomes worship? Caissie was a big piece of the return from Chicago to Miami in exchange for Edward Cabrera this offseason, and 2025 gave us a big-league moment to catch why. Before that, he was part of the deal that moved Yu Darvish to San Diego.

The masher only had 15 MLB batted-ball events, but two were barrels, eight qualified as a “launch angle sweet spot” hit, and one produced a 114 mph exit velo on a double to right-center field. However, he also struck out 11 times in 27 PAs, so get used to the “swing big, miss big” if you watch him.

But this is a guy who went 45th overall in the 2020 draft and had to make a transition to a professional organization during the pandemic. He kept at it and produced a strong .918 OPS at Double-A as a 20-year-old, followed by an .887 Triple-A OPS over two years without a starting vacancy at Wrigley.

The 6-foot-4 slugger is the No. 42 prospect according to MLB Pipeline and could follow in Stowers’ footsteps as someone who dominates righties and holds his own against southpaws. He also quietly swiped 11 bags in 127 games two seasons ago, though that fell to an iffy 5-for-9 success rate over 99 Triple-A tilts last year. A 35/10 season is possible!

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