8 Breakout Hitters For Fantasy Baseball Drafts: Jarod Rupp's Picks

March 19, 2026

Jarod Rupp's 2026 fantasy baseball hitter breakouts to target in drafts. His favorite undervalued hitters and fantasy baseball sleepers to break out.

Identifying hitters who are on the precipice of a breakout season is one way to have a successful fantasy draft and is a stepping stone toward having a championship-caliber fantasy season. It is because many of these breakout hitters will be very cheap, potentially providing a high return on investment, while you stack your team with high-priced talent in the earlier rounds.

In this column, I'll detail eight of my favorite candidates to become breakout hitters for the 2026 fantasy baseball season. I believe these bats can blow past the draft price point and take on a starting role in your fantasy lineups at some point this season. All ADP references are taken from NFBC drafts from March 1 through March 18.

Be sure to follow RotoBallerMLB on X and offer your opinions on these selections to me @JRRupp5. Also, don't just listen to me, check out what hitters my colleagues have identified, including Nick Mariano's Breakout Hitters and Andy Smith's picks, too. What eight hitters should you consider in the later rounds of your drafts, according to me? Let's check it out!

Ivan Herrera, DH, St. Louis Cardinals

ADP - 170

Ivan Herrera was supposed to be a breakout hitter last season, but injuries limited him to just 107 games. Even so, it was still a breakout in many ways. Just five games into the campaign, the Panamanian blasted three home runs in a single game, then followed it up with a home run in his very next game.

The hot streak was brought to a screeching halt in the following game with a knee injury. He returned in May, but was primarily a DH for the rest of the season and did not start playing full-time again until August. The 5-foot-11 backstop's season ended with a September to remember, belting eight home runs in the month with a .412 wOBA and a 170 wRC+.

All in all, he tallied 19 home runs in 452 plate appearances, good for a 25-homer pace if given 600 PA. An 11.0 percent barrel rate should sustain the power again in 2026, and with a better-than-average 18.6 percent strikeout rate, the right-handed hitter should continue to put the bat on the ball. All of his expected stats (xBA, xSLG, xwOBA) all ranked 86th-percentile or better, too, so nothing seemed fluky.

The 25-year-old has dealt with knee inflammation again this spring, but it is thought to be a result of catching, so he'll likely continue to be the team's designated hitter until the knee allows him to get behind the plate. As a result, hopefully, any type of knee-related IL stint should be avoided.

He finished as the sixth-ranked catcher for fantasy last season despite the missed time, so a top-five finish this season isn't out of the question, yet he's going around pick No. 170 in fantasy drafts. While he does not meet eligibility criteria on NFBC as of writing, he does on Yahoo!, making him an even stronger target on that platform.

Spring Stats: 2-for-7 (.286), 0 HR, 0:0 K:BB

Jonathan Aranda, 1B, Tampa Bay Rays

ADP - 185

Jonathan Aranda was an All-Star in 2025, but played in almost the same number of games (106) as the aforementioned Herrera (107), also as a result of injury. Aranda's was hopefully not the potentially recurring type of injury, though, as he suffered a fractured wrist after a collision at first base at the end of July.

The left-handed slugger returned for three games at the end of the season and provided a reminder of what he's capable of, going 4-for-12 (.333) with two homers in those three contests. In the end, he produced a .316/.393/.489 slash line with 14 home runs, a .381 wOBA, and a 146 wRC+.

There was an elevated BABIP of .409 and a higher-than-average strikeout rate of 25.4 percent, so some regression can be expected; however, with a 12.8 percent barrel rate and 93rd-percentile-or-better average exit velocity (EV), hard-hit rate, and expected stats, a 20-homer campaign with a solid average is well within reach (career .302 hitter in the minors, so last season's average didn't come out of nowhere).

Hitting third in the order behind Yandy Diaz and in front of Junior Caminero should provide plenty of help with the counting stats, too. Perhaps missing the second half of the season has made him an afterthought in many fantasy managers' minds, but at an ADP of 185, there are 18 other first basemen going ahead of him, and while it's a loaded position, Aranda could finish in the top 15 while easily outproducing his ADP.

Spring Stats: 7-for-21 (.333), 0 HR, 3:3 K:BB

Caleb Durbin, 3B, Boston Red Sox

ADP - 222

Caleb Durbin's final stat line from 2025 of .256-11-53-60-18 doesn't scream breakout, nor does a .319 wOBA and 105 wRC+, but that includes a dreadful first month in which he hit .169 with a .275 wOBA and 48 wRC+ in his first 30 games.

From May 21 through the end of the year, the right-handed hitter slashed .278/.352/.424 with a .341 wOBA and 120 wRC+ in 106 games (402 plate appearances), while 10 of his 11 home runs came during that time, as did 16 of his 18 steals.

During that stretch, the former 14th-round draft pick carried a 4.4 percent barrel rate, so it's hard to imagine there are many more home runs in his bat, but maybe he can get to 15. That isn't the type of power fantasy managers are looking for from a third baseman; however, the diminutive infielder is also eligible at 2B on Yahoo!, and 15 home runs would have put him just outside the top 12 in that category in 2025 at that position.

He should have no problem swiping 20 bags this year, too, which would have put him near the top five at the 2B position in that category last year (and would have put him behind only Jose Ramirez and Maikel Garcia at third base). Assuming his 88.4 percent contact rate and ultra-low 9.9 percent strikeout rate (98th percentile) weren't a fluke, there is a good chance to outproduce that .256 average from a season ago as well.

The 26-year-old spent the majority of last season hitting seventh in the order or lower (~70 percent of PA), but he's projected to bat sixth in Boston to begin the year, which should give his counting stats a slight boost. Add it all up, and you've got the right ingredients to outproduce his current ADP going outside the top 200.

Although he may not be your team's everyday third baseman, he's a viable backup and could slot in as a high-end corner infielder.

Spring Stats: 13-for-33 (.394), 0 HR, 3 SB, 3:5 K:BB

Andrew Vaughn, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers

ADP - 265

I outlined the case for an Andrew Vaughn breakout last year in my Post-Hype Infield Sleepers article, and for much of the season, that looked like a really bad prediction, culminating with his demotion to Triple-A in May. But once he got a shot in the majors again with the Brewers, the former first-round draft pick looked the part.

The right-handed slugger slashed .308/.375/.493 with 14 doubles, nine home runs, and 46 RBI in 64 games with Milwaukee. Things I had mentioned in that article that were a problem for Vaughn in the past were chase rate and walk rate, both of which were worse than average for his career. With Milwaukee? Both stats were better than average.

Combine those improvements with better-than-average career contact rate (and more specifically, zone-contact rate), career strikeout rate, and an improved barrel rate, and it's no wonder we saw what we did from Vaughn during his time with the Brew Crew in 2025.

(If you care to compare, there is a graphic in the article I mentioned above that shows Vaughn's first four years in the majors, and below is 2025 from Baseball Savant.)

Keep in mind, this is a guy who was drafted third overall in 2019, so the pedigree has always been there. As they say, maybe all he really needed was a change of scenery, and there was probably no scenery worse than his years with the White Sox. Set to be the Brewers' everyday first baseman, the California native has a chance to show what he's made of over a full season's worth of games.

In Vaughn, it feels like we're talking about an old veteran, but although he debuted in 2021, he's the same age as Aranda, both of whom will turn 28 years old this year, and just two years older than Durbin, who made his MLB debut just last year. The combination of pedigree, a change of scenery, and Vaughn coming into his prime baseball years last season explains his success, and there may be more to come in 2026.

At an ADP of 265, there is 25-homer, 80-RBI upside, with the potential for a decent batting average, all with little draft capital being risked.

Spring Stats: 12-for-33 (.364), 2 HR, 6:4 K:BB

Chase DeLauter, OF, Cleveland Guardians

ADP - 288

Chase DeLauter is a former 16th-overall draft pick, but he suffered a foot injury in college that lingered into his first year of professional baseball back in 2023. In 2024, he dealt with another foot injury and a hamstring strain, which again limited his availability. Unfortunately, 2025 was no different, as the former first-rounder needed surgery twice -- once for a sports hernia and later for a broken hamate bone in his hand.

The litany of ailments has resulted in a total of 138 games over the last three seasons, averaging just 46 games per year. While that is some concerning history that fantasy managers need to consider, the flip side of that coin is that the left-handed hitter has been very productive when in the lineup.

The JMU product owns a .302/.384/.504 slash line with 20 home runs during his minor league career, with a low 13.7 percent strikeout rate and a superb 12.0 percent walk rate to boot. Although he won't be a threat to run, the 6-foot-3 slugger has the look of a potential four-category fantasy producer.

The Guardians were so confident in his abilities that they gave him his major league debut during the '25 postseason, a rare occurrence to say the least. The Guardians' second-ranked prospect is projected to hit sixth in the Cleveland lineup, which should provide plenty of RBI opportunities, and he has not looked overmatched at the plate this spring, even smoking a 115.3 mph double off his bat in his latest appearance.

115.3 mph double by Chase DeLauter 😯

The @CleGuardians' second-ranked prospect is hitting .393 this spring with a 1.076 OPS: pic.twitter.com/tE8Hb9RLyU

— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) March 18, 2026

The 24-year-old should sail past his ADP this season and return loads of value, with one catch -- he needs to prove he can stay healthy. Sure, you could say that a lot of players could do the same as long as they stay healthy, but not many have shown such a proclivity for getting injured season after season, especially this early in their career, like DeLauter. Even so, he may only cost you one of your last picks, so it's a chance worth taking.

Spring Stats: 11-for-28 (.393), 1 HR, 3:2 K:BB

Jordan Lawlar, 3B, Arizona Diamondbacks

ADP - 275

Yet another seemingly injury-prone player, Jordan Lawlar, is set up for a breakout season so long as he stays healthy. The former top prospect debuted in Arizona in 2023 as a 20-year-old and even made the team's postseason roster, but injuries cost him most of 2024 and some of 2025.

Many will point to that and his underperformance when given the chance in the pros last season as reasons to steer clear, but this author believes the .182 AVG he posted in 28 appearances last year was more the result of inconsistent playing time and sporadic pinch hit opportunities.

During his initial call-up in 2025, the right-handed hitter got six starts over a two-week period; that's no way to get in a groove at the plate. He was recalled again in late August, and once more his playing time was sporadic, but take a look at the games in which he garnered two or more plate appearances -- there were 11 instances over the final month.

The former first-rounder collected at least one hit in nine of those games, going 11-for-34 (.323) with six of those 11 hits going for extra bases. This is the type of production we were seeing from him at Triple-A, producing a .313/.403/.564 slash line with 11 home runs and 20 steals in 63 games.

Jordan Lawlar breakout szn?

Fourth homer of the spring.

Off Glasnow is legit. pic.twitter.com/U3AEnVMMGS

— Jake García (@Jake_M_Garcia) March 10, 2026

Set to be the team's everyday center fielder this season, there is 20/20 potential if he can stay healthy for a full complement of games, and he possesses the skill to hit for a solid average as well. Lawlar isn't even eligible at the OF spot on NFC or Yahoo! yet, so when he gains that, it will make him more versatile and add to his fantasy appeal. At an ADP of 275, there is little risk and plenty of potential for reward.

Spring Stats: 11-for-39 (.282), 4 HR, 1 SB, 13:7 K:BB

Moises Ballesteros, DH, Chicago Cubs

ADP - 499

Moises Ballesteros owns one of the highest-rated hit tools in the minors, per FanGraphs scouting reports. It feels like his bat has been on fire since the start of the 2024 season. Since that time, facing Double-A and Triple-A pitching that was typically more advanced than him, the left-handed slugger has hit .302 with an .842 OPS in 238 games, blasting 32 home runs while striking out at a better-than-average rate of just 15.7 percent.

The Cubs' top-ranked prospect got a taste of the majors last season and did not disappoint, slashing .298/.394/.474 in 66 plate appearances while continuing to strike out at a better-than-average rate (18.2 percent) and drawing walks, too (13.6 percent).

Home runs in back-to-back at-bats for Moisés Ballesteros!

2nd inning: 108.2 mph | 441 ft
3rd inning: 103.9 mph | 423 ft

The @Cubs' top-ranked prospect is hitting .367 with a 1.020 OPS during Cactus League play. pic.twitter.com/hB21cCSN5O

— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) March 18, 2026

The Venezuelan backstop hasn't slowed down this spring either and will head into the season as the club's designated hitter. The 22-year-old could even see time at first base and catcher, and if he makes enough starts at first, then positional eligibility/versatility for fantasy will follow.

Of all the players listed here, Ballesteros is the cheapest with an ADP of 499, but there is NL Rookie of the Year potential in that bat if he can collect enough plate appearances.

Spring Stats: 11-for-31 (.355), 2 HR, 5:2 K:BB

Honorable Mention

Luis Robert Jr., OF, New York Mets

ADP - 110

There are a lot of players who have changed teams this offseason that will not see an increase in productivity just because they've found themselves plopped into the middle of a new lineup, but Luis Robert Jr. could be in the Vaughn boat in New York. Simply getting out of the White Sox organization should be a boon to his fantasy potential.

Sure, there are concerning metrics that can be cited as reasons to avoid him, but there are others that offer a glimmer of hope. He's not far removed from a .264-38-80-90-20 season in 2023, the same season in which he posted one of the worst chase and walk rates in baseball.

But the chase rate has improved incrementally along with the walk rate in each of the past two seasons, so we could see an improvement in batting average this year. Even his xBA of .246 suggested his .223 AVG from a season ago shouldn't have been so bad, and an abnormally low BABIP of .274 (career .329 prior to 2025) seems to back that up as well.

One thing that has always been consistent is his bat speed, which ranked in the 92nd percentile in 2025. The Cuban's average bat speed of 75.6 ranked right behind none other than Shohei Ohtani. Others just ahead of him? Ronald Acuna Jr., Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Aaron Judge, Nick Kurtz, Caminero, and Oneil Cruz -- some of the biggest bats and highest exit velocity producers in the game.

Like DeLauter, Robert will need to stay on the field for an entire season to return value on his ADP, having played in more than 110 games just once since debuting in 2020, but he has the power and the speed to once again be a solid fantasy producer, even if he never returns to the levels we saw in 2023.

Spring Stats: 3-for-11 (.273), 0 HR, 2:0 K:BB

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