8 Fantasy Baseball Risers and Fallers - Jacob Wilson, Merrill Kelly, William Contreras, Jesus Luzardo, more

June 9, 2025

Connelly's fantasy baseball risers and fallers for Week 11 of 2025. He assesses hitters and pitchers performing well and poorly to determine their future value.

Welcome, everyone, to another edition of RotoBaller’s Fantasy Baseball Risers and Fallers article series for Week 11 of the 2025 season! Today, I'll be taking a look at names like Jacob Wilson, Merrill Kelly, William Contreras, and Jesus Luzardo.

Keeping up with the latest hitter and pitcher trends is a key component for a successful season, and RotoBaller is here to help fantasy managers! Each week, I will select a few players who have performed well recently and a few who have not, and I will analyze their performances to determine how their future outcomes may be affected.

Fantasy managers likely now have a sense of where they stand and what they can do to improve their chances. Trades are one way to make improvements, and Riser and Faller trends can help inform them. Let's get into it to see if we can't help get some ideas flowing!

Fantasy Baseball Hitter Risers

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, June 8, 2025.

Jacob Wilson, Athletics (SS)

.370/.407/.524 Slash Line, 8 HRs, 37 RBI, 5 SBs

While there was no doubt about Wilson’s hit tool, there were questions about how it would translate for fantasy. Those questions have been put to bed, as he has slashed .370/.407/.524 this season.

Wilson hasn’t hit the ball hard overall, but he has done an elite job getting the most out of each swing with a squared-up rate in the 99th percentile of baseball. This has led to a strong .372 BABIP despite having less-than-average speed.

His hitting approach has also translated to power contributions in both points and roto leagues. His eight HRs are fine given his batting average, and his .524 slugging percentage has been bolstered by 14 doubles.

We should be talking about Jacob Wilson more.

We have a rookie hitting .350 with over 200 ABs. Kid is insane. pic.twitter.com/I1mwU513mK

— Ben Verlander (@BenVerlander) May 28, 2025

The Athletics have had a surprisingly strong offense this season, which has been partly due to Wilson. He has both fueled and benefited from their lineup, making him a fantasy standout to this point.

Max Muncy, Los Angeles Dodgers (3B)

.229/.353/.422 Slash Line, 9 HRs, 35 RBI, 3 SBs

Max Muncy's season numbers may not raise eyebrows from a fantasy perspective. However, he has looked more like his prime fantasy days since the end of April. Is it time for fantasy managers to buy back in?

It has been well documented that Muncy started wearing prescription glasses at the end of April, which corresponded to a spike in his production. Muncy had done next to nothing at the plate before his glasses but has slashed .272/.400/.583 with all nine of his HR since getting them.

Things also look good under the hood for Muncy. He has never hit for much batting average with a career .228 mark. However, his strongest attribute has always been his power, which is still present. In fact, his 91.2 mph average exit velocity and 52.9% hard-hit rate are both career highs.

MAX MUNCY! pic.twitter.com/l7UPbARTZ9

— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) June 4, 2025

Muncy has gotten things back on track while hitting in one of baseball's best lineups. His batting average may never be great, but he walks a ton and is back to providing elite power. It may not be fair to fully attribute his improved performance to his glasses, but it's as good a reason as any to buy back into him.

Fantasy Baseball Pitcher Risers

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, June 8, 2025.

Merrill Kelly, Arizona Diamondbacks

6-2, 3.43 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 23.8% Strikeout Rate, 76 IP

Kelly had a poor second start of the season but has otherwise had an excellent showing through 13 starts. He was a high-floor fantasy option in 2022-2023; is he back to that form?

There are some signs to suggest that he may not be back to quite that level. Looking at his batted-ball profile, his 89.5 mph career exit velocity is mediocre, but his current 90.9 mph is a career-high. His average exit velocity and hard-hit rate are both in the bottom 20 percent of baseball, although his 3.50 SIERA supports his ERA.

He has also been somewhat inconsistent on a start-by-start basis, especially lately. Kelly allowed four earned runs, two and three starts ago, before turning in a seven-inning one-hitter gem at the Braves. The good news is that his strikeout numbers have been up over his last three starts. Kelly managed a 22.6% strikeout rate in his first 10 starts compared to 27.8% in his last three.

Merrill Kelly, Nasty 87mph Changeup. 👌

7th K thru 5...and 🤫 pic.twitter.com/nGUsTyZBue

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 5, 2025

Kelly may not be the most exciting fantasy option, but he typically offers, at worst, a high floor. He was certainly better than that in his last start and has shown strong flashes throughout the season. Fantasy managers should be pleased with his performance, given how late he was being drafted.

Drew Rasmussen, Tampa Bay Rays

5-4, 2.14 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 23.5% Strikeout Rate, 63 IP

Injuries have limited Drew Rasmussen's fantasy impact throughout his career, but he has been effective when on the mound. He has gotten off to a strong start in 2025, compiling a 2.14 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP, and a 23.5% strikeout rate in 12 starts. Can he continue this high level of performance?

Drew Rasmussen has been on a tear lately...

Last three starts: 18IP 9H 0ER 3BB 13k. Lowers his season ERA to 2.33...

Quietly having a phenomenal season thus far. pic.twitter.com/lQuyoJrvy9

— Nicho Roessler (@NichoRoessler) May 29, 2025

Rasmussen relies mostly on three different types of fastballs, but each has been effective in its own way. His four-seamer has been hit hard but has been hit in the air, resulting in a 17.4% infield FB rate and a .205 batting average against. His cutter and sinker have yielded even better results with softer contact and high groundball rates.

An encouraging and important trend is that Rasmussen has finally been given the opportunity to pitch relatively deep into games. He averaged almost 5 1/3 IP/GS in 2022, when he made 28 starts. He has averaged the same this season. However, he has pitched six innings in three of his last four starts.

Rasmussen has done an excellent job avoiding damaging contact this season, which has paid dividends in several ways. He has been a WHIP specialist, and the Rays have finally let him pitch six innings. He has delivered a fantasy All-Star performance so far.

Fantasy Baseball Hitter Fallers

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, June 8, 2025.

William Contreras, Milwaukee Brewers (C)

.243/.352/.344 Slash Line, 5 HRs, 26 RBI, 5 SBs

Contreras has emerged as the top fantasy catcher option over the past several seasons. He has not displayed the attributes that got him there so far in 2025 and has a poor .211/.286/.281 slash line in his last 14 games. Is there a chance that Contreras may not be who fantasy managers thought he was?

It is important to note that almost all players experience periods of success and struggle throughout the season. Contreras has provided little from a fantasy perspective in the last two weeks, but his season numbers, while disappointing, are still better than his cold stretch. I bring this up to note that fantasy managers should attempt to look beyond the short-term picture whenever possible.

As for his overall season, the main thing that stands out is that Contreras has not hit the ball as hard. His average exit velocity and hard-hit rate are both much lower than his career averages and are below league average. One explanation for this could be that Contreras is playing through a fractured finger in his left hand.

This fracture is in his catching hand, but the pain is said to be most acute when he is hitting. The bottom hand is the one that guides the bat, while the top hand is more used as support. It is difficult to say how much this may be impacting him.

The tough thing about Contreras's performance is that he has been playing through an injury, although it hasn't been so bad that he has had to sit out. Catcher is still a tough position to get fantasy value out of, and Contreras has been a top option for several seasons. At this point, it seems the most conservative to wait for Contreras to break out of his slump before re-evaluating him.

Wyatt Langford, Texas Rangers (OF)

.227/.306/.425 Slash Line, 11 HRs, 26 RBI, 11 SBs

Wyatt Langford was a top fantasy prospect coming into last season and had a solid first season. His second season has been lackluster, and he has provided little in the last two weeks. Could this be a case of a sophomore slump?

The positive thing is that Langford's underlying numbers look solid overall. He has hit the ball harder than last season and has above-average Statcast metrics for the most part. Despite having a stronger batted-ball profile, Langford's .259 BABIP is 40 points lower than last season. This appears to be a case of bad luck.

Langford has been disappointing from a fantasy perspective, especially given how much hype he had last season. His underlying metrics look fine, making him a strong potential buy-low candidate.

Fantasy Baseball Pitcher Fallers

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, June 8, 2025.

Jesus Luzardo, Philadelphia Phillies

5-2, 4.46 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 26.4% Strikeout Rate, 72 2/3 IP

Jesus Luzardo would have been a top Fantasy Riser two weeks ago. However, his last two starts have been utter disasters, allowing 20 runs in 5 2/3 IP. Trying not to overreact is a key aspect of fantasy baseball, but Luzardo has completely collapsed recently. What should fantasy managers make of it?

Digging in, Luzardo allowed hard contact in his last two starts, and his 18.8% and 7.1% barrel rates were his highest marks since his first two starts of the season. He had allowed just three HRs all season, but he allowed that many in his last two starts combined.

There isn't a ton to point to in terms of discernible differences between his start of the season and his last two starts, which isn't necessarily a bad thing. Neither Luzardo nor manager Rob Thomson has had answers, other than eliminating health issues as a culprit.

Luzardo's recent performances have certainly been disheartening for fantasy managers, but he looked excellent before that. It is unusual to see such a stark difference in outcomes, but the silver lining is that Luzardo more or less pitched like he did when he was finding success. At this point, fantasy managers should sit him until he figures things out, but I am not ready to abandon ship.

Shane Baz, Tampa Bay Rays

5-3, 4.96 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 21.5% Strikeout Rate, 65 1/3 IP

Shane Baz had a great start to the season, but things have been trending down since May. He has allowed at least three runs in six of his last seven starts. Is it time for fantasy managers to move on?

One of the main issues has been his pitch location. He has left all of his pitches other than his fastball in the middle of the plate, which has led to a lot of hits. His pitch location has also impacted his strikeout numbers. He has allowed a lot of contact, which has dropped his swinging-strike rate to a career-low 9.7%.

Baz does have a high pedigree and is still relatively young in his career. He has shown flashes of upside even this season, but his overall value will remain limited if he cannot improve his pitch location.

More Sabermetrics and Statcast Analysis