RADIO
Nothing gets fantasy players' ears perked like the word breakout. The issue is, that word can mean many different things to different players. For some, it means a player that will outlive their fantasy baseball ADP. But to me, that is more of a sleeper. If you draft a player in Round 12, and they return Round 9 value, that was a good pick -- but it was not a breakout.
To me, a fantasy breakout is a player that will not only exceed their draft day cost, but will become one of the better players in fantasy. This is a player that next year will be going significantly earlier, likely in the first handful of rounds.
These are players that not only will make you look smart amongst your buddies, but could help you win your league if things break right. While they are not all guaranteed to hit, the more breakout candidates you can draft at the right price, the higher odds of having a very successful season.
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2024 Fantasy Baseball Breakout Pitchers
Yoshinobu Yamamoto may seem like a gimme here, but when MLB teams compete to give him a record-breaking contract before he even throws a pitch in the big leagues, you can see why it is easy to get so excited about him. Yamamoto has pitched to a sub-2.00 ERA in four of his last five seasons in Japan.
In that other, he had a 2.20 ERA. He has averaged over a strikeout per inning in each season since 2020 and threw between 164 and 193 innings in each of his last three seasons. Oh, and he will play on one of the best teams in baseball that gives him plenty of chances to win games.
ATC projects him for 12 wins, with a 3.76 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and a 26 percent strikeout rate. Ariel is consistently the most accurate projection system, so who am I to question him? But to me? Those numbers seem very conservative. Yamamoto can be a top-10 starting pitcher this season, and you do not need to pay that price. However, Yamamoto did struggle in his MLB debut, allowing five runs on four hits and a walk while striking out two over one inning. Fantasy managers might be able to get him a few picks later after struggling in his MLB debut.
Tarik Skubal is a popular breakout pick, but that is not going to scare me off from throwing my hat into the ring. Skubal pitched to a 2.80 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and a 33 percent strikeout rate in 80 innings last year. You can argue he already broke out as he had the third-highest strikeout rate in baseball, and his 2.28 xERA was the lowest among any starter that threw 50 innings.
We know he has swing-and-miss stuff, but he posted a career-high ground ball rate (52 percent), a career-low walk rate (4.5 percent), HR/FB rate (6.8 percent), and barrel rate (4.2 percent). If he can duplicate those results over a full season, he would win the Cy Young Award. There is a ton of upside here with Skubal.
Hinch on Tarik Skubal throwing 99+ yesterday: pic.twitter.com/RZbBhGMLa2
— Motor City Metrics (@mcmbaseballpod) February 21, 2024
Eury Perez debuted last year and threw 91 1/3 innings in 19 starts. He pitched to a 3.15 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP and a 29 percent strikeout rate. The ERA indicators were higher, which may scare some drafters away. But Perez will be entering his age-21 season, so the fact that he has MLB success already is extremely impressive.
It also helps explain why his ERA was nearly two runs higher in the second half. His worst month of the season was September, when he had a 5.19 ERA. The rookie wall is real, especially for pitchers, so pitching later in the year than ever before could explain his late-season struggles.
Update: Perez will begin the season on the 15-day injured list after being diagnosed with right elbow inflammation, making him a risky pick heading into 2024 fantasy baseball drafts. ATC now projects him for four wins, a 3.84 ERA, and 1.17 WHIP with a 28 percent strikeout rate over only 58 innings. If healthy, the former minor league standout would have returned top-25 starting pitcher value. Perez is still worth stashing in all league formats.
Grayson Rodriguez debuted last week and showed that he has swing-and-miss capabilities, striking out a quarter of the batters he faced. He also showed the ability to pick up ground balls, but he did allow a lot of barrels, which led to a high home run rate. Still, all his ERA indicators were lower than his ERA. He also got much better as the season went on.
In the second half, he pitched to a 2.58 ERA and 1.10 WHIP with a 24 percent strikeout rate. His BABIP and strand rate normalized in the second half as well. There is a case to be made that he was unlucky early on, and there was certainly an adjustment period to the MLB. ATC projects him for a 3.74 ERA and 1.19 WHIP to go with a 26 percent strikeout rate. If the pitcher we saw in the second half is the real Rodriguez, he can easily exceed those projections.
Bobby Miller debuted last year, pitching to a 3.76 ERA with a 1.10 WHIP and 24 percent strikeout rate in 124.1 innings. But, his ERA indicators were all a tick lower. Additionally, he had higher strikeout rates throughout the minor leagues. Miller also got better as the season went along last year. In the second half, he lowered his ERA, WHIP, walk rate, batting average against, and hard contact rate, all while increasing his strikeout rate. Plus, he pitches for the Dodgers, who will not only win a bunch of games, but have a history of developing young talent.
Bobby Miller, Fastball and Slider, Individual Pitches + Overlay. pic.twitter.com/bYNrALfCcC
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) February 20, 2024
Joe Ryan took some tough luck last year when he pitched to a 4.51 ERA, despite having a 3.53 xERA. His .305 BABIP was much higher than his career norm, so there could be room for positive regression. Ryan posted the fifth-best K-BB rate amongst starting pitchers (24 percent). And the best part is that Ryan already has a track record of success. I feel confident that Ryan can return to his 2022 form, but there is even more upside. A career year could be in store for the Twins hurler.
Michael King was the big return for the Padres in the Juan Soto trade, so it is easy to see why he comes with hype. He posted a 2.75 ERA, 3.53 xERA, and 1.15 WHIP with a 30 percent strikeout rate and 22 percent K-BB rate in a career-high 104.2 innings pitched. He made nine starts last year -- putting up a 2.23 ERA in 40.1 innings.
It is also worth noting that he posted a higher strikeout rate, lower walk rate, and WHIP in his starts. His 26 percent K-BB rate as a starter puts him in elite territory. So it is easy to see why people are getting excited now that he will get an opportunity to be a full-time starter for San Diego. Expect King to be hyped up and get pulled up draft boards, but that should not scare you from taking a shot on him. He could easily be one of this year's big breakout pitchers.
Live from Peoria, it’s Michael King. pic.twitter.com/rKk31iNR72
— San Diego Padres (@Padres) February 21, 2024
Brandon Pfaadt came up with a lot of hype, but ended the regular season with an ERA approaching 6.00. It will lead to him falling in drafts, but that creates a buying opportunity. While he never posted elite numbers, he did get much better as the year progressed. Not only did he split his ERA in half from the first to second half, but he lowered his walk rate, batting average against, WHIP, home run to fly ball rate, all while increasing his ground ball and strikeout rates. He then pitched very effectively for the D-Backs on their World Series run. Do not give up on the prospect that came with so much hype just a season ago.
Hunter Greene can strike batters out with the best of them. He has struck out 31 percent of the batters he has faced in both his MLB seasons. But he does allow a lot of walks and home runs, which is a combination for an inflated ERA and WHIP. Still, his 21 percent K-BB rate was 16th-best in baseball. Last year, he had a 4.82 ERA, while his xERA sat at 3.82, indicating some bad luck. Greene will always be a high variance pitcher, but there could be elite results if he can ever put it together for an extended stretch. Think a Blake Snell type of run.
Cole Ragans perhaps broke out last year. In 96 innings, he posted a 3.47 ERA and 1.16 WHIP with a 29 percent strikeout rate. His 22 percent K-BB rate was 13th-best among starters. Ragans’ 3.28 xERA would have tied him with Max Scherzer for 10th- lowest among starters. Additionally, Ragans' numbers are inflated by his time as a reliever. In 71.2 innings as a starter, he pitched to a 2.64 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 31 percent strikeout rate, and a .195 batting average against. Those are pretty elite numbers. He is worth taking a shot on, especially if he can be stretched out a bit more this season.
KC identified Cole Ragans' +4mph(!) increase in YoY FF velo to go w/elite existing shape (13.4“V-Mov x 12.4“H-Mov).
The Changeup (24%Use/.277xSLG/34.4%Whiff) was always sick but he *also* added an 87mph Slider (10%Use/.246xSLG/40.0%Whiff) & the results were remarkableSo what I… pic.twitter.com/uwDwID3175
— John Laghezza MLB / NFL Moving Averages (@JohnLaghezza) February 19, 2024
Cristopher Sanchez posted a 3.44 ERA, 3.77 xERA, and 1.06 WHIP with a 24 percent strikeout rate and just a 4 percent walk rate. He posted the 11th-best WHIP among starting pitchers, while his 20 percent K-BB rate was better than Max Fried, Logan Gilbert, and Aaron Nola. The lefty also limits hard contact and induces a ton of ground balls. He is not an elite strikeout pitcher, but he can provide very strong ratios on a good Philly team that can provide the opportunity for wins.
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