X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: Statcast Exit Velocity

Rick Lucks discusses how exit velocity (EV) can be used to predict a fantasy baseball player's future performance in his ongoing series on making sabermetrics more accessible to fantasy managers.

If you've watched a baseball broadcast in the so-called Statcast Era, you have undoubtedly noticed the broadcasters commenting on a batted ball's exit velocity, or EV. Many have taken to using stats like Hard% and Soft% to forecast how a player should be performing, expecting larger Hard% rates to produce larger BABIP and HR/FB figures. There is a relationship there, but it is not as clear-cut as you might think.

The hardest batted ball of the 2019 season was struck by Giancarlo Stanton. It was clocked at 120.6 mph, but Stanton only recorded a single for his efforts. The hardest-hit home run was a three-way tie at 118.3 mph: Gary Sanchez, Peter Alonso, and Aristides Aquino. Aaron Judge's best EV of the season was clocked at 118.1 mph and made an out. While higher exit velocity figures support offensive performance, you need to use other tools as well to accurately assess a player's performance.

Let's take a closer look at how the EV readings on Baseball Savant can give you an advantage in your fantasy leagues.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

How can I use EV to predict BABIP on ground balls?

The best way to get a feel for how hard a given batter usually hits the ball is to look at his average exit velocity. The league average mark in 2019 was 88.1 mph, but that stat is of little value. The exit velocity on airborne balls (both flies and line drives but not including pop-ups) is all you need when evaluating a player's HR/FB rate, while ground ball exit velocity is the best indicator of a high BABIP on ground balls. The two metrics should seldom intersect, but a lot of analysts ignore context and use overall average exit velocity to evaluate both HR/FB and BABIP.

You really shouldn't do that unless you believe that a grounder has a chance of going over the fence. Hard% is even worse, as it assumes that all batted balls of at least 95 mph are equal and makes no attempt to differentiate ground balls from airborne ones. So how do you figure out what's useful among these sabermetric measures? As always, the answer lies in placing these numbers in their proper context.

Major league batters averaged an EV of 84.8 mph on ground balls in 2019, and every mph above or below that figure is very important. For instance, hitters produced a batting average of just .150 on balls in the 80-82 mph bucket in 2019, while batted balls at 85 mph or above produced a .347 batting average.

As we've previously seen, players who can be shifted should be expected to struggle on grounders regardless of EV, while faster players can punch above their weight. Much like broader BABIP, it is a good idea to compare a player's current BABIP on ground balls to his career mark to account for these factors. As such, average exit velocity on grounders should be seen as one piece of a larger puzzle instead of the end of your BABIP analysis.

 

How can I use EV to predict HR/FB?

In 2019, the average airborne exit velocity in Major League Baseball was 92.7 mph. All other things being equal, a batter with an average airborne EV in the same area would be expected to be near the league-average HR/FB. Unfortunately, nobody of fantasy interest matched the exact MLB average in 2019.

If we increase the threshold to 92.8 mph, we get a bunch of fun names to work with: Gleyber Torres (21.5% HR/FB), Charlie Blackmon (17.7%), Jose Altuve (23.3%), and Jonathan Villar (16.7%). By exit velocity alone, all four of these guys were due for significant regression that could adversely affect their fantasy value. Sure enough, all four of them had down 2020 campaigns.

While airborne EV is an important power metric to look at, other variables can prove more important. Ironically, airborne exit velocity's most important use may be to confirm whether a player besting his career BABIP on fly balls and/or line drives can continue to do so.

 

Conclusion

Hitting the ball hard is obviously a good thing, but limiting your fantasy analysis to just exit velocity is asking for trouble. Variables such as strong pull tendencies and foot speed can trump raw EV in a player's BABIP on ground balls, while home park, launch angle, and Pull% can all support elevated HR/FB figures even if the EV doesn't. Oh, and for the love of the fantasy baseball gods, please don't use Hard% for anything.

If you'd like to learn how to interpret more statistics for a fantasy advantage, please check out our other articles on the topic.

More Sabermetrics & Statcast for Fantasy Baseball




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Anthony Richardson

Should be Fine for Training Camp
Russell Westbrook

to Decline Player Option
Kevin Durant

Trade Could Happen in the "Next Few Days"
A.J. Puk

Pauses Throwing Program
Matt Chapman

Can Begin Rehabbing in a Week
Logan Gilbert

Next Start Could Come in the Big Leagues
Cam Akers

Joining Saints
Yordan Alvarez

Still Not Hitting
Michael Mayer

to Get More Involved
Aaron Rodgers

DK Metcalf Building Chemistry with Aaron Rodgers
Colston Loveland

Likely to be Primary Tight End
Jacob Wilson

Returns on Friday
Justin Martinez

Out 12-13 Months With UCL Sprain
Will Johnson

Returns to Practice
Harold Fannin Jr.

Could Have Big Role in Rookie Season
Matt Chapman

Could Miss the Rest of June
Quentin Johnston

Still Running With Starters
Rashawn Slater

Takes Part in Minicamp
Jack Bech

Mostly Working With Second-Team Offense
Dont'e Thornton Jr.

Makes Strides This Offseason
Joaquin Buckley

Set For Main Event
Ashton Jeanty

to be Part of Committee Backfield?
Kamaru Usman

An Underdog At UFC Atlanta
Christian McCaffrey

Takes Part in Mandatory Minicamp
Jordan Watkins

has Been Standing Out
Miranda Maverick

Set For Co-Main Event
Rose Namajunas

Looks To Bounce Back
Jacob Cowing

on the Rise
Andre Petroski

Looks To Extend His Win Streak To Four
Demarcus Robinson

a Frequent Target This Spring
Dee Winters

has Been Impressive This Spring
Edmen Shahbazyan

A Favorite At UFC Atlanta
Raoni Barcelos

Set To Take On Former Champion
Cody Garbrandt

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Mansur Abdul-Malik

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Cody Brundage

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Alonzo Menifield

Opens Up UFC Atlanta Main Card
Oumar Sy

Looks To Remain Undefeated
Aaron Civale

Traded to the White Sox
Connor Hellebuyck

Wins Vezina And Hart Trophies
Aleksander Barkov

Records Two Power-Play Assists Thursday
Sam Reinhart

Collects Three Points in Thursday's Loss
Matthew Tkachuk

Notches Three Points in Losing Effort
Calvin Pickard

Joins Exclusive List with Thursday's Win
Mattias Ekholm

Logs Two Assists in Comeback Victory
Leon Draisaitl

Delivers Victory in Overtime Thursday
Myles Turner

Playing Through Illness
Reed Sheppard

Will Play in the NBA Summer League
Kevin Durant

Deal Could Come Sooner Rather Than Later
Jacob Misiorowski

Pulled With Cramps
Framber Valdez

Punches Out 12 in Win
Isaac Paredes

Homers, Exits Early With Hamstring Injury
D.J. Humphries

Rams Sign D.J. Humphries on Thursday
Troy Franklin

has Had a Good Offseason
Jacob Misiorowski

Leaves Game with Ankle Injury
Mike Williams

Expected to be Ready for Training Camp
Trey Benson

Adds Weight, Explosiveness
Dorian Finney-Smith

Undergoes Ankle Surgery
Christian Moore

Angels Calling Up Christian Moore
Anze Kopitar

Wins Third Lady Byng Trophy
Sergei Bobrovsky

Heading Out for Win No. 15
John Klingberg

Won't Play in Game 4 Against Panthers
Viktor Arvidsson

Sits Out Game 4 Against Panthers
Christian Yelich

Back in Brewers Lineup
Stuart Skinner

Remains in Oilers Crease Thursday
Chris Kreider

Ducks Acquire Chris Kreider From Rangers
Aaron Judge

Out for First Time All Season
Kodai Senga

Heading to Injured List With Hamstring Strain
Rafael Devers

has Been Playing Through Groin Strain
Jalen Williams

Leads Thunder in Scoring Wednesday
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Settles for 24 Points in Game 3 Loss
Pascal Siakam

Does Everything for Pacers Wednesday Night
Tyrese Haliburton

Gets Close to Triple-Double in Game 3 Win
Bennedict Mathurin

Leads All Scorers with 27 Points Wednesday
Brandin Podziemski

Has Second Offseason Surgery
Cale Makar

Wins His Second Norris Trophy
Lane Hutson

Voted NHL's Best Rookie
CGY

Adam Klapka Agrees to Two-Year Extension with Flames
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

Considered a Game-Time Call Thursday
Carlos Santana

Hits Grand Slam on Wednesday
Alec Bohm

Homers, Drives in Four on Wednesday
Clarke Schmidt

Strikes Out Seven in Win on Wednesday
Hunter Goodman

Homers, Doubles Twice on Wednesday
Jaylen Brown

Undergoes Successful Knee Procedure
Kevin Porter Jr.

Likely to Decline Player Option
Matt McCarty

Comes Off Season-Best Showing at RBC Canadian Open
Justin Thomas

Desperate to Continue Good 2025 Season
Kevin Durant

Knicks Not Looking to Trade for Kevin Durant
Jon Rahm

Seeks Revenge at U.S. Open
Tom Kim

Aiming for Improvement in U.S. Open
PGA

Sungjae Im Expects Solid Performance at Oakmont
Brian Harman

Aims to Rebound From the Memorial
Tony Finau

has Been Up and Down at U.S. Open
Patrick Cantlay

Hoping This is the Year at Oakmont
Akshay Bhatia

Improving in Time for U.S. Open
Xander Schauffele

Primed for Another Major Championship Run
Cameron Young

May Struggle at U.S. Open
Collin Morikawa

Eyeing Third Major Championship Title
Matt Fitzpatrick

Seeks to Avenge Oakmont Collapse
Jordan Spieth

Can Contend at Oakmont
Shane Lowry

a Strong Value Play at U.S. Open
Brooks Koepka

Seeks Another Major Win at Oakmont
Viktor Hovland

Still Can Improve at U.S. Open
Michael Kim

a Boom-or-Bust Value Play at U.S. Open
Russell Henley

Looking to Play the Weekend at Oakmont
Tyrrell Hatton

a Safe Option at U.S. Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Eyeing Third U.S. Open Title
Darius Garland

Kings Targeting Darius Garland
Kevin Durant

Expected to Be Moved Soon
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Reportedly Has "No Trade Market"
Jarace Walker

Remains Out Wednesday
Tyrese Haliburton

"Fine" For Wednesday's Action
Denny Hamlin

Charges Late to Win at Michigan
Carson Hocevar

Michigan Run is Derailed by A Late-Race Flat Tire
Kyle Larson

Up-and-Down Day Ends With Top-Five Finish at Michigan
Ross Chastain

Quietly Finishes Sixth at Michigan
Olivier-Maxence Prosper

Says Rehab Going "Great"
Corey Perry

Nets Power-Play Goal in Monday's Loss
Stuart Skinner

Gets Pulled in Heavy Game 3 Defeat
Evan Rodrigues

Extends Scoring Streak with Multi-Point Effort
Sam Reinhart

Collects Two Points in Monday's Win
Chris Buescher

Takes Second Place After William Byron Runs Out of Fuel
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Has a Great Points Day to Build Buffer Over the Playoff Cut Line
Ryan Blaney

Flat Tire Results in Poor Finish for Ryan Blaney
Alex Bowman

Playoffs in Doubt After Stage 2 Crash at Michigan
Sean O'Malley

Submitted For The First Time In His Career
Merab Dvalishvili

Defends Bantamweight Belt At UFC 316
Julianna Peña

Julianna Pena No Longer A Champion
Kayla Harrison

Is The New Champion
Joe Pyfer

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Kelvin Gastelum

Drops Decision
Patchy Mix

Drops Decision In His UFC Debut
Mario Bautista

Extends His Win Streak
Vicente Luque

Submitted At UFC 316
Denny Hamlin

is A Top Contender to Win At Michigan
Kyle Larson

Will Compete For The Win At Michigan
Chase Elliott

is One of the Most Favored DFS Options of the Week for Michigan
William Byron

May be A Top Threat to Win at Michigan
Kyle Busch

is Difficult to Recommend for DFS Lineups at Michigan
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Qualifies Ninth For the FireKeepers Casino 400
Alex Bowman

What Should Fantasy Managers Do With Alex Bowman at Michigan?
Austin Cindric

Should Austin Cindric be Considered For Michigan DFS Lineups?
Shane Van Gisbergen

Should Shane Van Gisbergen Be Rostered For Michigan DFS Lineups?
John Hunter Nemechek

Is A Solid Value Option For Michigan DFS Lineups
Zane Smith

Is Zane Smith Worth Rostering Outside of Tournament Lineups at Michigan?
Todd Gilliland

Is A Decent Value Option for Michigan DFS Lineups
Ryan Blaney

One of the Leading DFS Contenders, but Might Be Slightly Overpriced
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF