RADIO
Last matchweek was a good one. We just went with two games but managed to bag two winners from three picks in each game and net a 161% ROI. Leicester City beat Norwich City and Jamie Vardy scored as we expected, while Southampton and Newcastle United played out an exciting 2-2 encounter despite the game being scoreless at half-time. We also correctly predicted that scoreline. There's no time to pat ourselves on the back. We have a tricky week, coming on the back of internationals which caused chaos in some parts of the world and the European club competitions starting in midweek.
Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on them. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game I look at (although these are notoriously difficult to pick so I'm not suggesting you bet on these significantly) and will be picking the bets I think offers the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how.
We've been cranking up the soccer content this year at RotoBaller too. We'll be bringing you DFS and Fantasy Premier League content, on top of the weekly betting content. Follow the team on Twitter (@vdray5, @RichKingFF, @LucidMediaDFS, @PhilOfSports and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo) and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions or need advice on any of this.
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2021-22 EPL Betting Picks
- Total picks: 9-10-2 (+2.65 U)
- Match results: 5-3
Saturday, September 11th, 2021
Wolves (+136) at Watford (+248) - 10:00 am ET
Wolves come into this encounter without a point or a goal. They've lost all three games 1-0 so far but that doesn't tell the full story. They were very unlucky last time out that Manchester United's goal was allowed to stand and their +1.4 xGD (expected goal difference) is fifth-best in the league. All three losses have come against teams that finished in the top-7 last season so they can feel hard done by with the schedule and early results.
After opening the season with a 3-2 win against Aston Villa, Watford lost their next two games without scoring (away at Tottenham 1-0 and Brighton 2-0). While the newly promoted team have equipped themselves pretty well so far, they led the opening game 3-0 so have now conceded five unanswered goals. Their 2.6 total expected goals scored (xG) is the third-lowest and scoring enough goals to avoid relegation could be a season-long struggle.
I do fancy Wolves to win but think this will be a tight game so we'll also look at some props.
For two teams who struggle for goals, it shouldn't come as a shock that they don't win many corners. Through the first three weeks of the season, Watford has only had seven corners (20th) and Wolves have had 14 (tied-13th). Their combined average per game so far is seven and in what will likely be a low-scoring game, the 'under' in corners appeals.
I also expect the game to see a decent number of fouls, with both teams having six bookings so far and the referee for the game (Peter Bankes) dished out six yellow cards in his only EPL game this season. Watford's 38 fouls conceded is the most in the league while Wolves 26 fouls conceded is tied-11th most. The total bookings line is set very high (unsurprisingly) so we'll think a little outside the box and go for a penalty to be awarded in the game. Both teams have already conceded one in their first three games and another for either team here wouldn't surprise.
Score prediction: Watford 0 - 1 Wolves
Betting Picks:
- Moneyline - Wolves win (+136) 1 unit
- Total corners - under 9.5 (-102) 1 unit
- Penalty to be awarded - Yes (+175) 0.5 units
Brighton (+175) at Brentford (+191) - 10:00 am ET
Brentford comes into this weekend unbeaten. After defeating Arsenal (2-0) on the opening weekend, they've drawn with Crystal Palace (0-0) and Aston Villa (1-1). They've certainly not been overawed so far in their first-ever season in the EPL. They'll need talisman Ivan Toney to net regularly if they are to remain in the league next season and he opened his account last time out.
Brighton started the season with back-to-back wins (2-1 at Burnley and 2-0 versus Watford). They slipped to defeat last time out at home to Everton (2-0) and it was a slightly familiar tale for Brighton with just three of their 14 shots being on target. Last season, Brighton's 27.1% shooting accuracy (SoT%) was last in the EPL but they had a 33.3% SoT% in their first two games this season.
Brighton's top scorer from the previous two seasons (Neil Maupay) already has two goals this campaign and like Brentford with Ivan Toney, Brighton will need him to keep firing if they are to avoid another long relegation battle this season.
Brighton's biggest issue last season was taking their chances. They played good football and created plenty of chances without scoring but were much more efficient in front of goal in their opening two games and I expect them to hand Brentford their first defeat of the season. It should be a close game with Brentford urged on by the home fans so hedging for a possible draw seems prudent given the odds.
We'll also play the corners market here, as Brighton is a team that likes to keep possession and that should lead to winning more corners. In their first three games, they had more possession than their opponents and their 17 corners is tied-6th most. Brentford meanwhile has only had nine corners which is third-fewest and the 52% possession they had against Aston Villa was the most they'd had in a game this season.
Another feature for Brighton last season was their propensity for second-half goals (both for and against). Of the 86 goals in their games last season, 49 came in the second-half. So far this season, both teams have had more first-half than second-half goals in their games. That can be common early in the season as players build up to full match fitness and coming off the back of an international break (where both teams had few players called up for international duty) I'm expecting a slow and sluggish start to the game but one which will liven up in the latter stages.
Score prediction: Brentford 1 - 2 Brighton
Betting Picks:
- Draw no bet - Brighton (-110) 1.5 units
- Moneyline - Brighton (+175) 0.5 units
- Corners handicap - Brighton -1 (+123) 1 unit
- Highest scoring half - 2nd half (+110) 1 unit
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly!
