Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!


Receive free daily analysis


Already have an account? Log In


Forgot Password


Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Starts and Sit
Daily Fantasy
Who To Pickup
Fantasy Updates
24x7 News and Alerts

Early Summer ADP Risers at Running Back

We continue looking at ADP risers and fallers as we've done throughout the early portion of the summer with the running back position. We've already gone over risers at wide receiver, tight end, and quarterback.

Average Draft Position (ADP) indicates the average position where a player is drafted over more than one fantasy football draft. You can consider it as the price you have to pay to draft and get a player in your team.

ADPs are helpful to gauge the average value of players on draft day as viewed by the competition.


Running Backs - ADP Risers

In this series, I’ll highlight players at each skill position seeing significant fluctuation since the start of May leading up to June using data from FFPC drafts that have taken place in that period. Today, it's time to look at four running back ADP risers.


Matt Breida, Miami Dolphins

Not that long ago, by mid-April, the word on the streets was that Matt Breida would start the 2020 season in San Francisco. Fast-forward to the days around the draft and you'll find Breida packing his bags en route to Miami. How fast things change. Ever since that trade took place Breida's ADP has gone up and up and up. It has stabilized a bit as of late, but it's still seen a 44-pick bump during the past month and change, which is ridiculously high.

Breida will be paired with Jordan Howard in the Dolphins backfield and although their games are complementary (Howard more of a short-rush tank, Breida more of a big-play, finesse player) they will undoubtedly share touches. Both players are going to be part of an RBBC with Breida bringing some pass-catching upside.

Both of them have similar ADPs (Breida 92, Howard 98) and PFF projects them to score 118.0 and 120.6 PPR respectively in 2020. At their price, they're far from good ROI plays and you should be able to find more valuable assets in your board (Jamaal Williams, Tarik Cohen, or even Phillip Lindsay, all going cheaper).


Ronald Jones II, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Ronald Jones' ADP bump of more than 12 picks is a little hard to explain. Tampa drafted Ke'Shawn Vaughn and also has Dare Ogunbowale in the backfield after trading Peyton Barber to Washington. This looks like an RBBC entering the 2020 season, and although Jones should be the RB1 of the team he will still lose touches to the other two.

If we're honest, Jones hasn't looked closer to a world-beater in his first two years as a pro. He only had one 100-yard game in 2019 and it wouldn't be a surprise to see Vaughn snatching the no. 1 role from him with time. There are also rumors out there about Tampa offering Devonta Freeman a contract, making this ADP rise even more baffling.

Jones offers an atrocious ROI at his current ADP (projected to 100.8 PPR good for RB53 while having the 37th-highest ADP among RBs). Fade him until his price drops a lot and let others fall in his trap.


Derrius Guice, Washington Redskins

Washington's backfield is crowded as hell. It features Derrius Guice, Adrian Peterson, Peyton Barber, J.D. McKissic, and now also rookie RB Antonio Gibson. Gibson might end playing more wide receiver than running back, but that still leaves four names there. Put in simple fantasy football terms: avoid this RBBC as you'd avoid lava running down a hill.

Guice's ADP rise could be described as the result of Washington planning to reduce 38-year-old Peterson's workload and the fact that Guice's was once a first-round pick that has not had the chance to prove much due to injuries in his first two years in the league (he missed 2018 entirely). He should be the first man in line to take the reins of the backfield, that is.

Guice projects to reach 154.6 PPR, the 30th-highest mark among RBs. His ADP is currently the 33rd-highest, so he's a borderline positive-ROI candidate. He should be a good pick at his ADP of 75, but if it keeps climbing I'd advise passing on the tailback.


David Johnson, Houston Texans

I'd be the first one to try and convince you of the potential David Johnson's renaissance taking in place in Houston come next season. That being said, Johnson's current ADP of 36 is more than ridiculous. I mean, Johnson getting off boards in the third round would require him to put on an incredible season that seems to be out of his reach these days. Sure, Johnson had a 246.6 PPR year in 2018, but 2019 was a down season for him as he finished RB37 with 141.5 PPR.

Fantasy GMs are drafting Johnson as the 20th-best RB while he projects to score 194.8 fantasy points in 2020. That aligns, as that point total would be good for RB20 on the year. The problem is that he is the 85th player overall in total PPR in those projections, his ROI would be really low at that high price, and you'd be betting a lot (a third-round pick or even a low second-round one if you want to secure him) on a positive regression that who knows if it will happen or not. He's a total fade for me.

More Fantasy Football Analysis


Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Starts and Sit
Daily Fantasy
Who To Pickup
Fantasy Updates
24x7 News and Alerts


Kaapo Kahkonen2 hours ago

Makes 44 Saves In Victory
Mikael Granlund2 hours ago

Totals Season-High Three Points
Anthony Duclair3 hours ago

Scores Two Goals In Victory
NJ3 hours ago

Simon Nemec Collects Two Points In NHL Debut
Ausar Thompson4 hours ago

Probable Against Cleveland
Bojan Bogdanovic4 hours ago

Likely To Return On Saturday
Caris LeVert4 hours ago

Sitting Out Against Detroit
Brandon Miller4 hours ago

Battling An Ankle Issue
Anthony Edwards4 hours ago

Not Expected To Play On Saturday
Andrew Wiggins7 hours ago

Questionable For Rematch With The Clippers
Trey Lyles7 hours ago

Won't Play Versus Denver
Keegan Murray7 hours ago

Might Return On Saturday
New York Mets8 hours ago

Yoshinobu Yamamoto Is Where Mets' Focus Lies
Cleveland Browns8 hours ago

Myles Garrett Cleared For Week 13, Denzel Ward Ruled Out
Ezekiel Elliott9 hours ago

Questionable For Week 13
Bailey Zappe9 hours ago

To Start In Week 13
Demario Douglas9 hours ago

Won't Play In Week 13
Travis Etienne Jr.9 hours ago

Remains Limited On Friday
Tee Higgins9 hours ago

A Full Participant On Friday
Dalton Schultz10 hours ago

Won't Play In Week 13
Noah Brown10 hours ago

Tank Dell, Noah Brown Questionable For Week 13
Dorian Thompson-Robinson10 hours ago

Won't Play Sunday, Joe Flacco To Start
Keenan Allen11 hours ago

Questionable For Week 13
Dallas Goedert11 hours ago

Doubtful To Play In Week 13
Treylon Burks11 hours ago

Questionable To Face Colts
DeMar DeRozan12 hours ago

Uncertain To Play Against Pelicans On Saturday
Pat Connaughton12 hours ago

Ruled Out On Saturday
Keegan Murray12 hours ago

Practices On Friday
Chris Olave12 hours ago

Still In Concussion Protocol But Not Ruled Out
Doug McDermott12 hours ago

Will Not Play Against Pelicans
Luka Doncic12 hours ago

Ruled Out On Friday Due To Personal Reasons
Joel Embiid12 hours ago

Will Be True Game-Time Decision On Friday
Devin Booker12 hours ago

Will Sit Out Against Nuggets On Friday
Victor Wembanyama12 hours ago

Will Be Sidelined On Friday
Trey McBride12 hours ago

Iffy For Week 13 Action
Marquise Brown12 hours ago

Officially Questionable Against Steelers
Julius Randle12 hours ago

Tagged As Questionable On Friday
Dalvin Cook12 hours ago

Breece Hall, Dalvin Cook Questionable For Week 13
Treylon Burks13 hours ago

Cleared To Play In Week 13
Aaron Jones13 hours ago

Ruled Out For Week 13
Jerick McKinnon13 hours ago

Chiefs Expect Jerick McKinnon, Kadarius Toney To Play In Week 13
Dougie Hamilton14 hours ago

Simon Nemec Called Up To Devils Friday, Dougie Hamilton Placed On IR
Zach Charbonnet14 hours ago

Dealing With Swelling In Knee
Adin Hill14 hours ago

Leaves Thursday's Contest Early As Precaution
Timo Meier14 hours ago

Close To Returning, Could Play Friday
Jonathan Taylor14 hours ago

Officially Ruled Out
Sam Montembeault14 hours ago

Signs Three-Year Extension With Canadiens
Nikita Zadorov14 hours ago

Traded To Vancouver
Beneil Dariush16 hours ago

Arman Tsarukyan A Favorite Over Beneil Dariush At UFC Austin
Jack Eichel16 hours ago

Steers Vegas Back On Track
Beneil Dariush17 hours ago

Has A Dangerous Task In Front Of Him
Brayden Schenn17 hours ago

Leads Blues To Victory Thursday
Bobby Green17 hours ago

Looking For Third Win In A Row
Noah Dobson17 hours ago

Grabs Three Assists In Thursday's Win
Jalin Turner17 hours ago

A Favorite At UFC Austin
Tyrese Haliburton17 hours ago

Notches Another Big-Time Performance
Jack Hughes17 hours ago

Adds Three More Points To His Tally
Dustin Stoltzfus17 hours ago

In Dire Need Of Victory
Trae Young17 hours ago

Posts A 45-Point Double-Double
Tom Wilson17 hours ago

Celebrates First Career Hat Trick
Jalen Brunson17 hours ago

Drops 42 Points In Win Over Pistons
Punahele Soriano17 hours ago

Looking To Return To Win Column
Jonathan Isaac17 hours ago

Tagged As Questionable On Friday
Tristan Jarry17 hours ago

Caps Off Winning Performance With Historic Goal
Mitchell Marner1 day ago

Scores Hat Trick In Victory
Alex Lyon1 day ago

Earns Third Consecutive Victory
Jeremy Swayman1 day ago

Posts Shutout Against Sharks
Matt McLain1 day ago

Fully Healed
Shohei Ohtani1 day ago

Wins Most Outstanding Designated Hitter Award
Zach Hyman1 day ago

Ready To Return On Thursday
Juuso Valimaki1 day ago

Back For Coyotes On Thursday
Ilya Mikheyev1 day ago

Good To Go Thursday
Dylan Cease2 days ago

Cardinals Interested In Dylan Cease
Joaquim Silva2 days ago

Looking To Return To The Win Column
Clay Guida2 days ago

Set For 36th UFC Fight
Kelvin Gastelum2 days ago

Returns To Welterweight
Tyler Glasnow2 days ago

Cubs Have Held Trade Talks On Tyler Glasnow
Sean Brady2 days ago

Looking To Rebound After First Career Loss
Deiveson Figueiredo2 days ago

Moving Up To Bantamweight
Rob Font2 days ago

Set For Third Fight Of 2023
Nick Martinez2 days ago

Agrees To Two-Year Deal With Reds
Jackson Chourio2 days ago

Brewers Expected To Complete Record-Breaking Deal
Joey Wendle2 days ago

Agrees With Mets
Devin Williams2 days ago

Wins NL Reliever Of The Year Award
Félix Bautista2 days ago

Felix Bautista Named AL Reliever Of The Year
Luis Severino2 days ago

Mets, Luis Severino Finalizing One-Year Deal
Shohei Ohtani2 days ago

Expected To Sign Before End Of Winter Meetings
Dylan Cease2 days ago

Trade Talks For Dylan Cease Have Intensified
Randy Arozarena3 days ago

Being Shopped By Rays
Bo Bichette3 days ago

Likely Staying Put
Emilio Pagán3 days ago

Emilio Pagan Agrees To Two-Year Pact With Reds
Dylan Cease3 days ago

Dodgers "Among Most Aggressive" Teams For Dylan Cease
Shohei Ohtani3 days ago

Yoshinobu Yamamoto "Above All Other Options" For Giants
Juan Soto3 days ago

"Almost Certain To Be Traded"
Cody Bellinger3 days ago

Earns NL Comeback Player Of The Year Award
Liam Hendriks3 days ago

Earns AL Comeback Player Of The Year Award