RADIO
Here at RotoBaller, our dynasty crew will be reviewing all 32 teams in our offseason Dynasty Team outlook series. Leading up to the draft, we will break down every franchise as they currently stand and will review them again after the conclusion of free agency and the NFL Draft.
Which players should you buy and which players should you sell? Who will be sleepers this season and who will be busts? We will cover all the positions and all the angles for you.
NFL teams that have as high-powered of an offense as the Packers tend to produce some nice fantasy options. Dynasty options are no different with the Packers. When you have Aaron Rodgers at the helm, you’re going to have some nice numbers to work with. On the other hand, when you are missing Rodgers, well, you know what happens then...
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Green Bay Dynasty Outlook
Team Record: 7-9 (3rd, NFC North)
Fantasy Leaders - PPR
QB: Brett Hundley -123.6 (QB31)
RB: Jamaal Williams – 142.8 (RB32)
WR: Davante Adams – 222.5 (WR14)
TE: Lance Kendricks/Richard Rodgers – N/A
IDP: Blake Martinez – 251.1 (LB3)
Quarterback
Brett Hundley started in 11 games this year after Rodgers went down with a broken collarbone. Rodgers still outscored Hundley for the year with 129.5 fantasy points in just seven games. It’s safe to say the Packers were a major disappointment on both sides of the ball this year, and fantasy owners felt this disappointment as well.
With this series, we are focusing on dynasty football. In this case, Rodgers still holds his same value and is likely the number one QB anywhere you look. He isn’t going anywhere, and when he comes back in 2018, fantasy owners can expect his usual elite numbers. One of the major pieces for dynasty purposes on the Packers along with Rodgers, is WR Davante Adams. He is currently my number seven dynasty WR, and I’ll explain later just why I have him ranked so high. Elite WRs are becoming pretty rare anymore in the league with the late resurgence from RBs and pass-catching RBs, so if you have Adams, you’ll be happy to read this piece.
The number one dynasty QB, regardless of your league format, is always something that is huge to own. Even in 1QB leagues where QBs tend to get overlooked, there really isn’t anything like having that reliable 20+ points week in and week out. It is a huge advantage, and you’ll never have to worry about who to start every week, for the most part. The exception to this was made clear in 2017, as Rodgers suffered a broken collarbone in week 6 against the Vikings, heading into this matchup sitting atop the NFC North at 4-1. Rodgers has already broken his collarbone once in his career (left, non-throwing), but this time he broke his collarbone on his throwing shoulder.
Losing Rodgers showed everyone just how valuable he is to that team. Hundley led the Packers for the remainder of the season, finishing third in the division with a 7-9 record. Jordy Nelson basically became unstartable for fantasy purposes without Rodgers, and Adams’ production also took a hit. Look for the Packers to bounce back in 2018 with some elite numbers from Rodgers.
Running Back
The running back situation in Green Bay is one that I wasn’t thrilled about heading into the season. Ty Montgomery has always made me nervous since switching from a WR to a RB. Rookies Jamaal Williams and Aaron Jones were interesting prospects heading into the season, and most guys that love evaluating rookies based off metrics will tell you they are still believing in Jones. Williams was actually more productive for fantasy purposes, especially in PPR leagues.
I expect the Packers to grab another RB in this year’s draft. Despite having these three options, I think the Packers could be a sneaky spot that a late round RB ends up landing. None of these guys stick out to me as the one to own, so my suggestion would be to sell high on them if someone in your league loves Jones or thinks Montgomery is the answer. If the Packers do not end up drafting a RB, then Montgomery is the guy that I expect to get first crack at the backfield. He started off strong last year, but the Packers were feeding him the ball so much that it was just a matter of time before he fell off.
Wide Receiver
If you’re in the market for a study WR in your dynasty league, look no further than the Packers. Davante Adams has shown us that he can be a legitimate WR1 in the NFL, and in fantasy football. With Jordy Nelson heading to Oakland, Adams looks to be Rodgers main target for the foreseeable future. Adams is under contract in Green Bay through the 2021 season, so for you two to three-year window fans for dynasty purposes, this is perfect. You’ve got the best fantasy QB in the league throwing him the ball, and a stud WR that has shown improvement consistently each year since 2014 when he entered the league.
Adams' numbers have increased steadily in each of the following categories since entering the league: yards per game and receptions per game. Despite losing Rodgers for the majority of the season, Adams would have easily passed his yardage numbers from 2016, which would’ve been his first 1,000-yard season. He has increased steadily each year in receptions and targets as well, minus 2017. Again, give Rodgers a full season, and these would’ve easily passed his 2016 numbers. Not to mention, Adams missed two games in 2017. I don’t expect Adams to continue to put up these ridiculous TD numbers, but I do expect his targets and yardage to continue in the same direction, potentially with even more upside without Nelson.
Another more low-key winner from the departure of Nelson is Randall Cobb. Cobb gets no respect in fantasy, and it is hard to buy into him as a big producer for fantasy. Having said that, without Nelson, Cobb will likely continue as the slot receiver role, and have a shot as a flex or WR3 for 2018. He is someone you can buy for next to nothing.
(data from Pro Football Reference)
Tight End
The Green Bay Packers for fantasy purposes, aren’t known for putting up big numbers at the tight end position. This year, I expect that trend to finally change. One of the biggest names of free agency this year was Jimmy Graham, and he landed in Green Bay. The last fantasy-relevant TE out of Green Bay was probably Jermichael Finley in 2012 or 2011. Since then, Packers tight ends like Martellus Bennett have gotten some hype in the pre-season but end up as barely a weekly streaming option. This year that should change.
Although the tight end position hasn’t been great in Green Bay in recent years, they’ve never had someone like Graham. I expect Graham to be a legitimate TE1 option, and a weekly starter this year. He will be a threat in the red-zone and a nice piece to compliment Adams and Cobb.
IDP
Not only was Green Bay an abysmal defense in 2017, but their fantasy players in IDP leagues were far from great. Second year LB Blake Martinez showed the league that he is a beat of a LB, and will be a nice piece for IDP leagues moving forward. It isn’t likely that you’ll be able to get Martinez cheap by any means, but he isn’t someone I’d want to be selling right now either. He’s a hold for me right now.
The Packers have several needs on the defensive side of the ball, and a lot of opportunity for a rookie to step up. There is a good chance that a rookie defensive player for the Packers ends up being fantasy relevant for IDP. With needs at the LB and DB position, there is an opportunity for someone to step up and make a name for himself.
Off-Season Outlook
2018 Draft Picks:
#14, 45, 76, 101, 133, 138, 172, 174, 186, 207, 232, and 239.
Team Needs:
CB, LB, DE, RB, WR
Cornerbacks have been a popular position to target for the Packers in recent years. In three of their past four drafts, they’ve taken a cornerback with their first pick. Unfortunately, with the departure of Demarious Randall and missing out on Bears FA Kyle Fuller, they may need another CB. The Packers pass-rush is one of the places that I expect them to target early on in the NFL Draft as well. Clay Matthews will be 32 in May. The addition of Muhammad Wilkerson in free agency will help, but he will be 29 this year, and isn’t an ideal long-term answer.
As mentioned earlier, I think the Packers will target a RB late in this draft. Despite having their current three options, this RB class is very deep, and there will likely be some value late in the draft. The Packers also have 12 picks this year, so they could definitely afford to use one on a RB, whether it be in the later rounds, or if someone of good value falls to them. Although I do love Adams and Cobb will be a nice slot receiver, I do think the Packers grab a WR late as well. Geronimo Allison has a chance to take a step forward, but there are a handful of late round WRs that with all of their picks, the Packers could take a flier on one. This draft is full of slot receiver and number two receiver options, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Packers grab one late.
More 2018 Team Outlooks
