Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

Lost password? [X]

Receive free daily analysis:

NFL    NBA    MLB

Already have an account? Log in here.

[X]

Forgot Password


[X]

Buy Low(er) - Dynasty Baseball Players Due For A Rebound


Dynasty teams are great to own and develop; they are my favorite teams to manage actually. In real life and fantasy, there are managers who find happiness by having a finished organization that can run itself with very little decision-making on their part. There are other people who find pleasure building an organization up and making it better. I am the latter. I get bored if I ultimately have upper-tier players at every position. One of the keys to building a great team is to build with value. When doing that, get in the habit of trading up for more valuable players instead of trading for quantity.

Below I will cover a few players that missed the mark with their 2018 season and will bounce-back. It is not an exhaustive list. Of course, there are plenty of other candidates who will recover back to their norm, and even more. To start, Kris Bryant will likely have third-round value to start the year. The keyword with him is health. Is his shoulder fully healed? If you’re looking for another infielder with similar keywords, you will find it in Carlos Correa. He will also have a slightly deflated value due to his performance, which was likely affected by a back injury. Maybe you need another SS that can probably be found with even lower value; keep an eye out for Corey Seager. The closer we get to the regular season, the more attention that will be paid to his progress from taking a year to recover from his Tommy John surgery as well as recent hip surgery. Take advantage now before spring training play helps assuage these concerns.

In the analysis, I will give you a quick snippet of information on the player in a BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front) format. If you have any question on the article, baseball in general or dynasty questions at all, shoot me a message on Twitter @EllisCan2.

Editor's Note: Get any full-season MLB Premium Pass for 50% off, with exclusive access to our season-long articles, 15 in-season lineup tools and over 200 days of expert DFS research/tools. Sign Up Now!

 

Buy-Low(er) Guys

Carlos Martinez (SP, STL)

BLUF: An SP2 that had a season derailed by injuries. Finishing the season as the team’s closer might worry fantasy owners and further lower his value.

Martinez had an ADP of 53 in 2018. He came into the season as the ace of the Cardinals’ staff. However, an 8-6 record with 117 strikeouts in 118 innings with a 3.11 ERA somehow has people shaken and running for the hills. It is unfortunate, but Martinez was beset with injuries and was unable to get into a rhythm. I would not say Martinez is injury prone, but he definitely had an injury-filled season. Martinez was literally a strain on your roster in 2018. He had strains of all kinds, lat, oblique, and shoulder. He even got nailed by a 109.8mph line drive in his first appearance back from an injury.

Martinez finished the year as the closer, but a guy with a four-pitch mix should not be in the bullpen. It is more likely he is put back in the rotation where he has excelled in the three years prior to 2018. In the years of 2015-2017, Martinez had a WAR of 3.4, 3.3, and a 3.3. His performance was impressive and should be treated more like someone to target rather than an afterthought. In 2019 drafts, most people will likely regard Martinez as someone that barely classifies as a top-40 starter; be overjoyed if you can get him as your SP3-4.

Michael Conforto (OF, NYM)

BLUF: A full season healthy will lead to career numbers. He can hit with power and excels at drawing a walk. With a little team help (Cano), he might push to be a top-20 OF in 2019.

How can we categorize a guy as a bounce-back if they’ve never been consistent? Well, he is a guy that had a very good year in 2017 but his 2018 season numbers will tamper expectations, unnecessarily. Another question, how valuable is a solid player on a terrible team? That is a good question. It is still early, and anything can happen in the offseason. Oh, I almost (didn’t) forgot that the Wilpons own the Metropolitans (no, not the ice cream; that’s Neopolitan, and the Mets would be Strawberry). Maybe the hiring of a former agent as the GM and bringing in an analytics expert to the front office will instill some vigor into the organization. Regardless, what can Conforto accomplish despite his surroundings?

Lest we forget, Conforto started his 2018 season somewhat prematurely in his return from shoulder surgery. It showed in his numbers as he hit 11 HR and .216 AVG in the 346 plate appearances of the first half. Contrarily, he turned it on and hit 17 HR with .273 AVG in the second half (292 plate appearances). He finished the year with 28 homers and .243 average with a .342 wOBA.

Conforto will come into the 2019 season fully healthy and the confidence of steady playing time. As such, he has the ability to duplicate his 2017 second half numbers for an entire season, which will allow him to shoot up the OF rankings. Do not let him slide.

Byron Buxton (OF, MIN)

BLUF: There is a risk, but there are few with his potential (power and speed) that will be valued so low. However, do not pay for can’t-miss, elite-prospect Buxton.

Fatigue. That is exactly what is going on with Byron Buxton. Owners have seen glimpses of his ability that reminds them of the promise he showed in the minors. However, it has been overshadowed by a tremendous amount of disappointing results. If you add in the Twins’ strange management of his playing time at the end of 2018 (ahem, service time, anyone), then you have a recipe for complete frustration by any fantasy manager.

Triple-A continues to be where he is most comfortable. Despite a miserable 2018, the one semi-bright spot was that he hit .271 with four homers and four stolen bases in 35 games at Rochester. Compare that to a .156 batting average and zero homers in the majors. At 25 years old (soon to be), the Twins will quit toying around with his playing time and allow him to get some consistency. With that, he should be able to get comfortable and perform better. So, how does this make him a bounce-back candidate? Well, he did have a myriad of injuries in 2018. Also, Buxton’s batting average was hampered by a .226 BABIP. With maturity, he should now be able to translate his Triple-A success to the big leagues.

With that said, now is as good of a time to reach out and acquire him. The Buxton owner cannot get any lower, hopefully. However, the buying opportunity will disappear just as quickly with any positive news in spring training, breathing new life into an ill-fated corpse of a fantasy owner.

Miguel Sano (3B, MIN)

BLUF: Power. Strikeouts. He is not as bad as 2018 unless weight management issues are the cause and persist.

The best shape of his career. That’s how everyone is feeling in spring training; evidently, that was not the case with Sano. Maybe his playing weight was elevated because of the offseason sexual assault allegation before the 2018 season. If an incident-free offseason is obtained, it is possible Sano comes into the 2019 season focused. Yes, I know he hit a police officer while driving his truck outside of a nightclub in the Dominican Republic. No charges were levied against Sano; he also offered to pay for the officer’s medical expenses (broken leg). So, with all that behind him, he can focus on an otherwise uneventful offseason and come into spring training fresh.

What can we expect in 2019? Let’s first look at 2018. In 71 games, he hit 13 homers with a .199/.281/.398 slash line. He also had a career-worst strikeout (38.5%) and ground ball rate (43.8%). Obviously, I am not highlighting his strengths from the season, or am I? The point is, Sano’s underlying stats will improve which should enable him to return performances more in line with 2016 and 2017. This included upper 20s homers and a batting average of roughly .250. While it isn’t the epitome of sexy, it is definitely a bounce-back, particularly for the meager price you will have to pay for him. This is a prime example of someone that can clearly play better, returning a tremendous value on your investment.

Chris Archer (SP, PIT)

BLUF: Big strikeouts without the inflated price. Even higher returns if he can reduce his hard hit and walk rate. Can still be a top-30 SP.

The discarded ace. Archer was once on the cusp of being an elite starter for quite a few years. He has always had premier level strikeouts but fell short of ace status because of his hard hit, fly ball, and walk rates.

Archer finished the year with a 6-8 record in 27 starts. Additionally, he only pitched 148 innings in 2018, whereas he exceeded 200 innings in years 2015 – 2017. In regards to strikeouts, he surpassed 230 in all three of the previously mentioned years but only had 162 last year. He has achieved all this while relying primarily on two pitches. Archer does have his shortcomings, primarily with hard contact as he allowed a 39.4% hard hit rate, which was equal to 2017 but nearly an 8% increase from the previous three seasons.

Signs exist for Archer to have a bounce-back year in 2019. Everyone has their interpretation of these signs. But, it is a positive outcome that he will have a full season pitching in the national league, which should further solidify his return to strikeout excellence. Also, Archer finished the year off strong with Pittsburgh. In September, he had a 2.70 ERA with 36 strikeouts and nine walks in 30 innings. This is enough to give hope that he can rekindle his old performance. If the Archer owner in your league truly believes he is not even a top-50 starting pitcher, make an offer equitable to a 50th-ranked starter and enjoy the profit throughout the year.

Gary Sanchez (C, NYY)

BLUF: One of the top-two options at catcher. Costs less than 2017, but still worth it with a limited quantity of choices available at the position.

Sanchez had a down year (understatement), especially considering where he was drafted by many last year. He finished with 18 homers and 53 RBI in 89 games. Sanchez’ batting average plummeted to .186. It suffered primarily from a .198 BABIP, which was negatively affected by a 43% fly ball rate, an increase from 36% in 2017.

While the numbers aren’t impressive, you must consider the circumstances they were achieved. Sanchez spent quite a bit of time off the field with injuries. Whether “loafing” or not, he was sidelined with a groin injury. Sanchez also dealt with an aggravated shoulder the last couple of years; he underwent shoulder surgery in November but should be ready for opening day.

The options at the catcher position are sparse. Even with a poor performance in 2018, Sanchez still carries a ton of value, likely that of the best option at the position. However, it might be possible that the down year provides an opportunity to acquire him at a discount from his (3rd round ADP) draft value in 2017. Rehabbing his groin and fixing a persistent shoulder injury might allow Sanchez to perform better in 2019 than we even expected following his 2017 season.

 

Other Players to Consider

More Dynasty Baseball Strategy




More Recent Articles

 

Wide Receiver Matchups To Target In Week 15

In Week 14, DeAndre Hopkins and Michael Thomas were the high-end options that came through with solid performances, both finishing in the top-five even though they had fairly tough matchups. A.J. Brown finished as the No. 1 receiver on the week, scoring two touchdowns off of just seven targets, while Darius Slayton and Emmanuel Sanders... Read More


Fantasy Football Starts and Sits: Matchups Analysis for Week 15

Welcome to our Week 15 matchup analysis and start/sit column for fantasy football. We'll be covering every single contest from the Sunday slate in one convenient location, helping you make the best decisions for your fantasy lineups. Be sure to check back regularly because this article will be updated as news comes in regarding injuries and other... Read More


Woos and Boos - Starts and Sits for Week 15 Lineups

The trend of fresh faces being among the tops of the fantasy scoring leaderboard continued in Week 14. Across the skill positions, we saw players that took advantage of plus matchups and excelled for fantasy owners during the first week of the playoffs. Mitchell Trubisky and Drew Lock came out of nowhere to finish inside... Read More


Week 15 Fantasy Football Staff Rankings

Below you will find all of RotoBaller's fantasy football weekly rankings, tiers, player news and stats for the 2019 NFL season. Our Ranking Wizard displays our staff's rankings for various league formats, all in one easy place. Here's what you'll find: Weekly PPR Rankings Weekly Half-PPR Rankings Weekly Standard Rankings Dynasty League Rankings     Fantasy... Read More


Fantasy Football News and Injuries - Running Updates

Below is a quick-hit list of running notes on relevant injuries and player news, including pre-game reports and live in-game updates. Stay tuned for updates all throughout the week and on Sunday morning game day:   Week 15 James Conner is expected to make his return this week. Devante Parker (concussion) is good to go for... Read More


Week 15-16 Playoff Defense (DEF) Streamers and Starts - 2019 Fantasy Tiers, Rankings

Still doing things a little differently this week--for those of you who are still alive. I want to take a look at the playoffs as a whole (and in this case we are considering Weeks 14-16) and determine which DSTs you can ride all the way through and which ones you should stream this week.... Read More


Week 15 Stream Team - Free Agent and Bye-Week Streamers

Now that the playoffs are in full swing in most leagues and the final march for a championship has begun, streaming becomes a  necessary strategy. Knowing who to add and when to start them could be the ultimate difference-maker in a weekly matchup. Making the right streaming decisions could easily be the difference in winning... Read More


Key Starters and Tough Calls - Lineup Spotlights for Week 15

Welcome to Week 15, RotoBallers! Below you will find some of my spotlight plays and tough lineup decisions for the upcoming week of the fantasy football playoffs. These player selections are based on my Premium Weekly Lineup Rankings, available as part of the RotoBaller's NFL Premium Pass. Enter promo code KING at checkout for a... Read More


Week 15 Panic Room: Outlooks for Slumping and Injured Players

As you set your Week 15 fantasy football playoff lineups, there may be some players who make you feel very uncomfortable about starting them. Based on recent lackluster performances, injuries, or just an intangible bad vibe, it's a struggle to insert them into your lineup in a do-or-die week. But you may also nervous be... Read More


Drew Lock: Is He Ready For Fantasy Football Playoff Consideration?

There is much excitement in Denver after Drew Lock put on an air display at Houston last week. In just his second NFL start, the rookie threw for 309 yards and three TD passes, all in the first half, as the Broncos stunned the AFC South leaders, 38-24. The final score doesn’t indicate what type... Read More


Survive and Advance: The King's Guide to Fantasy Football Playoff Sanity and Success

As the playoffs progress in the NFL every season, media coverage ramps up. By the time we get to Super Bowl week, it's become a full-blown circus. There are microphones and recorders being shoved in players' faces at every waking moment, and the questions never stop. As the fantasy football playoffs move ahead, there is... Read More


Red Zone Usage Risers and Fallers - Week 15

We are at a crucial point in the season. Hopefully, your team is still alive, but there is always an opportunity to get your team in shape before that final push! As fantasy owners, we know that not all touches are equal. A touch in the red zone has an increased chance of scoring a... Read More


QB vs Pass Rush Matchups To Watch - Week 15

Week 15 is here, and the fantasy playoffs are rolling. Some head into the fantasy semifinals as big favorites but others are scrapping to keep their season alive. Real teams start at quarterback, and the position is pretty important for fantasy as well. Quarterbacks have changed the game for fantasy football this year with guys... Read More


Inside the Tent - Week 15 NFL Injury Insight

At RotoBaller, we can't stress enough the importance of keeping up with injuries and playing your best lineup week after week. Players are going to get injured, that's an unavoidable fact. What's avoidable though is making the wrong roster decisions based on the injuries surrounding your fantasy squad. If you want to dominate your leagues... Read More


NFL Matchup Ratings Tool - Weekly Player Projections

  If you see the red "Upgrade" button below, then you are not a Premium subscriber, or have not yet logged in. Learn more about our NFL Matchup Ratings and projections system. Editor's Note: Get any full-season NFL Premium Pass for 50% off. Our exclusive In-Season Lineup Tools, Lineup Optimizer and over 150 days of... Read More