DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Picks - RBC Heritage Golf Advice (2023)

Be sure to follow me on Twitter @TeeOffSports to get more answers this week, and if you aren't doing so already, I'd love for you to consider signing up for my RotoBaller premium subscription. There are numerous tools available, including my heralded 'PGA Rankings Wizard Model.'

 

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - RBC Heritage

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PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)

• A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market. 
• The RBC Heritage Link

Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)

• Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
• All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (234-174-23) 57.35%
• Total H2Hs Since 2017: (434-301-59) 59.05%
• Outright Winners Since 2017: 36
• Units: +311.229 Units
• All Totals Are Entering 2023
• Click here to see an example

In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)

• Here you will find updated stats for the particular tournament – all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time round four comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.

In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4

• Lifetime Record: (200-127-36) 61.16%
• Click here to see an example

First-Round Leader Article

• Eight first-round leader wins in 2022.
• Click here to see an example

One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)

• 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look into a handful of options to consider.
• Click here to see an example

Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool)

• We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.

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Field

Field Size: 143
Cut: Top 65 and Ties
Top 20 Entrants: 

 

Last Five Winners Of The RBC Heritage

2022	Jordan Spieth	-13
2021	Stewart Cink	-19
2020	Webb Simpson	-22
2019	C.T. Pan	-12
2018	Satoshi Kodaira	-12

 

Expected Cut-Line

2022	1
2021	-1
2019	-3
2018	1
2017	1

 

Harbour Town

7,121 Yards - Par 71 - Greens Bermuda (Overseeded)

Initially built in 1969, Harbour Town is a Pete Dye track that received help from Jack Nicklaus when being constructed. Interestingly, the venue was Nicklaus' first time working on a property in his career. Still, though, the combination of Dye/Nicklaus generated the strategic layout you might expect from the two working together from a golf architecture standpoint.

Tight, tree-lined fairways forge this path of a less-than-driver appeal on most holes, although the real difference maker for me came down to the massive increase in second-shot expectations from 125-200 yards. We see 10.7% more shots occur from that range than an average stop on tour - highlighted by a nine percent reduction in anticipated approaches from over 200 yards. That distribution renders a unique split since it minimizes distance when most holes possess a club-down option as the optimal route and enhances mid-iron play for those that often find themselves beaten by the elite players in the world with distance in all facets of the game.

Strong winds are one of the variables that can wreak havoc on the field with its coastal design. However, that factor does become marginally mitigated because of the tree-lined impact that does serve as a protection for a course littered with 18 water hazards and numerous sand traps.

Overall, we have a unique data split since there aren't many tracks on the PGA Tour that will eliminate driving distance this heavily from the equation. That is a weird answer since we still see this venue grade as one of the more impactful in wayward drives (even though the rough is not penal). I just think it comes down to knowing where you can/cannot miss, and golfers that are a bit wild off the tee can still find this course easy if their strength allows more accessible fairway-finding opportunities when they are clubbing further down than their competitors. I believe that is why guys like Cameron Young and Cameron Davis have been able to use their stellar proximity totals to find success here in the past.

Let's Look At The Stats

Stat	Harbour Town	PGA Average
Driving Distance	268	283
Driving Accuracy	65%	61%
GIR Percentage	58%	65%
Scrambling Percentage	62%	57%
Average Three-Putts Per Round	0.38	0.55

Key Stats 

Let's quickly run through how I built my model. (You can see only the 2023 season when you make a copy).

Weighted Strokes Gained Total (25%)

 

Weighted Tee-To-Green L24 (12.5%)

 

Strokes Gained Total Under 7,200 Yards (10%)

 

Strokes Gained Total Pete Dye/Jack Nicklaus Tracks (10%)

 

Strokes Gained Total Wind (7.5%)

 

Par-Five Average (10%)

 

Weighted Bogey Avoidance (10%)

 

Ball-Striking (15%)

 

Total Number Of Top 10's Out Of The Eight Categories: Two-Year Running Model

I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on Twitter.

 

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

 

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

***There are five players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter.

• Safest Play: Patrick Cantlay ($10,300) - With three top-seven finishes at Harbour Town since 2018, Patrick Cantlay brings an intriguing combination of safety and course history to the table this weekend at the RBC Heritage. The American has been a tee-to-green stalwart over the past 24 rounds (ranking third in this field), and it will come down to if he can make a few putts if he wants to get himself into the winner's circle. As everyone knows by now, I typically am bullish on his chances.
• Most Upside: Scottie Scheffler ($11,000) -Putting matters, but there hasn't been anyone on tour as dominant as Scottie Scheffler over my two-year running model when we remove that category and only look at tee-to-green. The difference between Scheffler (1st) to Rahm (2nd) is as large as Rahm to Homa (8th). We have reached the point where Scheffler will win any event where he produces quality putting. 
• Favorite GPP Play: Scottie Scheffler ($11,000), Jon Rahm ($11,100) - I am curious where the ownership trends for Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm. Sure, the Masters impacted everyone that played four rounds, but we could make the same argument for any of these names. There is no reason the two best golfers in the world should be the ones to suffer the ownership discount. Both are heavily enticing if they aren't going to be top-10-owned golfers.
• Fade: None - All are playable
• Most Likely Winner: Scottie Scheffler ($11,000)

 

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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

• Safest Play: Viktor Hovland ($9,800) - Hovland has quietly been brilliant in 2023, making all eight cuts and providing six top-20 finishes. A ball-strikers course that accentuates iron proximity sounds like a good fit for a golfer that landed 21st here in 2020.
• Most Upside: Tony Finau ($9,300) - Finau fits the safety answer of a golfer that continues to churn out top 30 finishes while failing to compete most weeks, but the data has been phenomenal when we dive into his season. Like Cantlay and Scheffler, we are waiting for more putts to fall, but the American grades second in strokes gained tee-to-green over his past 24 rounds. Something has to give here soon, which is why I believe we are sitting on a significant result.
• Favorite GPP Play: Viktor Hovland ($9,800), Tony Finau ($9,400) and Cameron Young ($9,600) - Any fades for me are going to come because I can't play everyone, but I do believe the early ownership is enticing for anyone $9,000+. If the numbers stand, Rahm, Scheffler, Cantlay, Hovland, Young and Finau will be the six that I use, although a lot can change between now and Thursday.
• Fade: None - I have players I like more than others, but every name in these two sections rank inside the top 12 of my model. Pricing is accurate in all spots and will make everyone mostly playable.
• Most Likely Winner: Tony Finau ($9,300) 

 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$8,000 Range 

• Safest Play: Sungjae Im ($8,600) - The price is becoming more accurate for Sungjae Im, but I still think we are marginally too cheap.
• Most Upside: Justin Thomas ($8,900) - An upside answer goes without saying for the two-time major winner, but I won't be in unless we get an ownership discount. Fourteen percent is too high for someone trending massively in the wrong direction. None of that is to say he can't win, but it is hard to accept the total unless something changes.
• Favorite GPP Play: Tom Kim ($8,500) - I could see ownership start to run wild before Thursday, but we aren't receiving that right now. If things stay around where they are percentage-wise, I will play Kim. 
• Fade: My model wants to say Matthew Fitzpatrick, but I can already see him trending up with some of the back-end numbers that I input throughout the week. As of right now, I will be out on most of these names in GPPs because of ownership.
• Most Likely Winner: Sungjae Im ($8,600) 

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000+)

• Safest Play: Justin Rose ($7,700) - Rose climbs from 50th to 17th in weighted tee-to-green for the RBC Heritage inside my model.
• Most Upside: Russell Henley ($7,800) -Henley nuking his ownership was less than ideal at the Masters. Harbour Town is a fantastic fit for his game, and I still plan to use him at his current ownership projection.
• Favorite GPP Play: Gary Woodland ($7,500), Stephan Jaeger ($7,000) - Woodland and Jaeger are sub-two percent options that have top-25 potential. 
• Fade: You can find all the massive fades on my model.
• Most Likely Winner: Russell Henley ($7,800)

 

Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider

• Safest Play: Ben Griffin ($6,900) - Griffin was the only golfer to land inside the top 50 of my model for safety in this range. The bottom of this board has some concerns.
• Most Upside: Alex Smalley ($6,700) - Smalley gets a reduction in par-fives and a shorter venue to use his ball-striking.
• Favorite GPP Play: Answer to come later in the week. 
• Fade: Andrew Putnam ($6,700)
• Most Likely Winner: Alex Smalley ($6,700)

 

 

Win Big With RotoBaller

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