RADIO
Last event of the year, folks. It's been a long one but we have reached the end of the road as we'll enter the lovely Christmas period after Saturday and stay hibernating until Dana brings the fireworks back come Jan. 14th. Yes, that's nearly a month for those keeping track at home. So don't take a single thing for granted and enjoy this stuff while it lasts!
We wrap up the year with a Vegas finale featuring a recent MW contender in Jared Cannonier and an aspiring one in Sean Strickland. Whoever gets the W here will position himself in a very sauce place entering 2023, so this is the closest to a title fight we could ask for from an APEX event. That, and more, covered in the final UFC column of the year!
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA lineup picks for UFC Vegas 66: Cannonier vs. Strickland on 12/17/22. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
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DraftKings MMA Middleweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Jared Cannonier, $7700 - vs. Sean Strickland
Cannonier had his lone chance at lifting gold back in July but Israel Adesanya was too much for him in what ended up being a decision loss by the former in UFC 276. Cannonier, who should have faced Strickland two months ago, had to wait until the end of the year to do so with Strickland withdrawing from that October fight due to a finger infection.
Strickland is now ready to go and will try to bounce back from a loss, the same as Cannonier, suffered in his most recent fight: a KO defeat to Alex Pereira in the same UFC 276. Other than that blemish, though, Strickland had won six consecutive fights going all the way back to Oct. 2018, boasting a 5-1 overall record since Oct. 2020.
Cannonier has only reached the judges' decision three times in the eight fights he's been part of since the start of 2018. He only won one of those. The other five bouts ended in four KO wins and one KO defeat.
You can consider Cannonier one of those KO-or-nothing type of fighters judging by his recent outings. No need to mention he offers no grappling/takedown upside at all.
Strickland has done some grappling here and there, but he's definitely not one to bet on thinking he'll give you plenty of goodies on that front. He comes with KO-prowess too, but he's not so much of an either/or proposition as Cannonier.
Strickland is the better play all things considered. He can KO Cannonier (be careful, though, because that has not happened to him since May 2018) but most importantly he comes with a huge volume of strikes on a per-fight and per-minute basis along with very large odds of getting all the way there to the final buzzer.
Cannonier is clearly the worst fighter on 15-or-25-minute runs, so there's that. My fantasy money is on Sean.
DraftKings MMA Lightweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Arman Tsarukyan, $8900 - vs. Damir Ismagulov
The only thing keeping this fight from being a ridiculous one is Arman's late loss to Mateusz Gamrot last June. Yes, he debuted in defeat (to 94th-percentile DKFP-per-fight averager Islam Makhachev, which is understandable), but other than that he had gone on a five-fight winning streak from Jul. 2019 to Feb. 2022.
Damir has yet to meet defeat in the UFC, currently boasting a perfect 5-0 record since debuting back in Dec. 2018. Ismagulov has not been quite as active as his foe this weekend, though, with just one fight in each of this and last year and none at all between Aug. 2019 and May 2021.
These two bring both striking and grappling to the table. Arman has a slightly lower volume on the former but the landing rates are a tad higher on that front. Damir has averaged more SSA per fight (164) and per minute (nearly 11) since 2019.
When it comes to takedowns, both men will most probably land at least one while going for gaudy amounts of them. Arman has chased foes 7+ times per fight while Damir has gone for 5+ in the same span.
The most optimal outcome would be for these two to reach the final buzzer because they provide numbers on all fronts. If that doesn't happen, Arman is the only fighter with early-finish prowess having gone for two KO wins.
Pray for a 15-minute fight and if you feel like it, stack these two together. If you can only go with one of them, Arman Tsarukyan would be my choice.
DraftKings MMA Featherweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Julian Erosa, $8800 - vs. Alex Caceres
After defeating five foes in a row, Caceres decided to step up his game and face a proper opponent last March only to fall for the first time in 36 months after doing so for the last time back in Feb. 2019. Caceres is 5-1 in that span but coming off a loss to the only fighter ranked inside the 76th+ percentile in DKFP per fight (Sodiq Yusuff).
Erosa, on the other hand, has three wins in a row and a 5-1 record since June 2020 getting that L against, actually, the weakest (49th percentile) of the men he's faced in that time. His ongoing three-fight winning streak came against fighters ranked inside the 71st pctl or higher, including 82nd-pctl Charles Jourdain (submission W).
I don't think there is much debate to be hand here. Erosa comes with both a higher volume of strikes and takedowns. He lands blows on a lower accuracy than Caceres does, yes, but he launches more than twice strikes per minute so he more than makes up for that rate difference.
Caceres has minimal upside in taking people down, but he has had two submission victories in the past two years and four months, so there is that.
That said, of course, you can just bank on such a rare event, rather betting on takedown volume and submission prowess, just in case. And Erosa provides exactly that having 2+ takedowns landed in each of his last three fights winning one of those via sub. He has another sub in the UFC, along with a KO victory in Feb. 2021. It's Erosa all day for me.
DraftKings MMA Lightweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Bobby Green, $7600 - vs. Drew Dober
With both men about to appear in their 20th fights in the UFC (Dober will be just one short after Saturday's meeting), it makes sense to focus on their most recent results rather than their full careers.
Dober is 4-2 since the start of 2020 while Green has amassed a 5-3 record in the same span on a slightly bulkier workload (mostly thanks to fighting four times in 2020 alone). None of these two has won via submission, although Dober was defeated in March 2021 in that particular way (it must be said that the L came against 94th-pctl Islam Makhachev, though).
While Bobby Green is the one having the better takedown numbers, the truth is that it's been four fights in a row for him without landing one after going 11-of-15 in his four 2020 bouts. He's 0-of-3 since the start of 2021... Dober is 1-of-6 in his last six fights combined.
This is just going to be a strike exchange, as simple as that. Dober is coming off knocking out his two most-recent foes with both those victories taking place last March and July. Green, on the other hand, got rocked in his most recent fight last February, coincidentally, by the same Islam Makhachev.
The per-minute volume favors Green and so do the per-fight numbers too. Fantasy players out there might be scared of betting on Green because he is coming off a KO loss compared to Dober's back-to-back KO wins. Don't fall for it, it's a trap. Bank on Green bouncing back.
DraftKings MMA Middleweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Cody Brundage, $6800 - vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk
Back-to-back victories by Brundage after losing his debut fight against Nick Maximov (via decision) had him looking good of late. On top of that, those two Ws have come in the past nine months, so Brundage cannot enter the Octagon this Saturday riding a higher wave.
Michal, on the other hand, is 3-2 since the start of 2020 but is coming off a first-round KO win while having another such victory in his third-to-last fight. He dropped one via decision to Dustin Jacoby last March, though, sandwiching those two KO victories.
None of these two are going to give you many takedown goodies as they have not landed more than one takedown since the end of 2017 (Michal). On the striking side things don't look much better, mind you. Both fighters are more prone to KO their foes than mauling them over full-time fights and a large volume of landed strikes.
This is a really ugly affair to pick a single fighter from because both men like super risky boom/bust plays. Brundage has finished foes in both KO and submission ways, so I'd just go with him because of that and the fact that Michal has been submitted twice (at the end of 2019 and the start of 2020).
