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DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS lineup picks for UFC Vegas 17: Thompson vs. Neal on 12/19/20. MMA DFS analysis to build winning daily fantasy UFC lineups.
Let's all observe a moment of silence for the year that was in MMA and the last event of 2020 that is ahead of us. Okay, we can now move on. It's sad (maybe?) but having the last event scheduled for this very shitty year this upcoming Saturday also means that we're about to enter 2021 and that can only mean great things. The Apex will welcome UFC Vegas 17 this weekend, but after that, we have no less than mighty McGregor coming back, and two more set-on-schedule "numbered" events in February and March. But let's focus on the short-term future of the UFC first.
And that goes through Vegas once more before we go on vacation until Jan. 16th. This weekend, Dana White is turning into Santa bringing us a six-fight main card full of greats. Stephen Thompson and Geoff Neal headline the card, but deeper down we can find names such as those of Jose Aldo, Marlon Moraes, and Anthony Pettis. No belt on the line, sure, but the names alone and the matchups make this event a loaded one and a very watchable and enjoyable night on paper. So let's close 2020 with some MMA fireworks!
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy MMA, UFC lineup picks for DraftKings for UFC Vegas 17: Thompson vs. Neal on 12/19/20. You can check out our FanDuel MMA DFS picks as well. These DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced fighters and value picks on DraftKings. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
DraftKings MMA Welterweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Geoff Neal, $8400 - vs. Stephen Thompson
Back in November of 2016, Stephen was a clear contender to snatch the WW belt from Tyron Woodley's hands. They faced each other that month in what ended as a draw fight, and they fought once more in March 2017 when Woodley won by decision. Those two are all title-fights Thompson's been part of in his career, and it looks like his best days are over. After stringing six wins leading up to the first gold-bout, Thompson has more losses than wins. He's 1-2 since 2018 and the only good news is that he came back to the W column in his last fight... all the way back in November 2019.
Geoff Neal, on the complete opposite side of the spectrum, debuted in February 2018 and has yet to meet defeat. Neal is holding a perfect 5-0 in his UFC run, and although he's currently ranked below Thompson in the WW official ranks, he's much closer to challenging for the title than Steph. Neal has finished the three opponents he's faced in "numbered" events with first- or second-round KOs and won his other two via decision and submission. He does it all.
Neal has much more upside on this one than Thompson, and all points to Geoff's direction this Saturday. Neal has scored more than 85 DKFP in all fights he's had inside the Octagon and has high probabilities of finishing his foe. Stephenson looks cooked, and he's only scored more than 75 DKFP once in his last six fights, going back to the first championship-bout against Woodley.
DraftKings MMA Bantamweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Marlon Vera, $7600- vs. Jose Aldo
The first time Jose Aldo fought inside a UFC octagon was almost 10 years ago, and he did so as a straight challenger who got to call him champion by the end of the night of his debut. That's correct. Aldo became a champ in UFC 129, appeared in 11 title-on-the-line fights to "start" his UFC run, and defended the belt six consecutive times. Sadly for Aldo, his heyday is more than over. He got another crack at a belt facing Petr Yan this past July, but he ended eating the mat getting KO'd in under 25 minutes.
Vera has also been around for a while, with his UFC debut happening in November 2014. He had a relatively bouncy first three years with a 4-3 record in the 2014-17 span, but he's 6-2 since the start of 2018 and he's won six of his last seven bouts. Vera was on a five-fight winning streak until he lost to Song Yadon in May 2020 but rebounded quickly with another W against Sean O'Malley (KO in 4:40 minutes) four months ago.
With three losses in a row, Aldo has yet to score more than 42 DKFP in any fight since February 2019. He carries the living legend's aura, but I'm afraid that's all these days. Vera, on the other hand, has scored 59+ DKFP even in defeat through his last seven fights, and at least 85 DKFP in his wins. If he gets the W this weekend (he will), odds are he finishes Aldo and gets some bonus points, as he's done to the last eight fighters he's defeated (five KOs, three subs).
DraftKings MMA Welterweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Michel Pereira, $8300 - vs. Khaos Williams
It's barely been a month since the last time we saw Khaos Williams step inside an Octagon. It happened on Nov. 14th, when Williams scored himself his second UFC win with another KO, the second in a row. Khaos is a perfect 2-0 in the promotion, and all he's needed has been 57 seconds to reach that record. You read that right. He won his debut in 27 seconds, and his sophomore-bout in 30, both ending in KOs while the monster didn't even get to land more than 15 combined SS.
Michel Pereira also KO'd his first foe in 1:47 minutes, but he then proceeded to lose two straight (decision and DQ) to finally bounce back last September by submitting Zelim Imadaev. With a 2-2 record, Pereira better steps up if he doesn't want to start getting questioned a little bit down the road.
We just don't have enough of a sample to analyze Williams' game other than how impressive he's looked with two under-30-second KOs to his name already. If there is something to Khaos, that's finishing prowess. But Pereira isn't short of talent, either. Pereira can land strikes and has a very sweet ground game (he's 5-of 8 in TDs), which makes me think he might be the one with chances to end Khaos' impressive start.
DraftKings MMA Bantamweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Rob Font, $7200 - vs. Marlon Moraes
This fight is hard as hell to address in fantasy contests. The difference in salaries can't be higher, with Moraes $1.8K more expensive than Font. The problem is that both fighters have very different profiles, which makes their prices reasonable and is making me also think that pairing these two in a stack could probably be a smart move here.
Marlon Moraes had an incredible run of four consecutive wins leading up to his title-fight against Henry Cejudo in June 2016, which he ultimately lost via KO. He defeated a lowly Jose Aldo jumping up weight classes, but then dropped his lone fight of 2020 (another KO) a couple of months ago against Cory Sandhagen. Moraes carries some viable floor because he tends to be an active striker and also lands some takedowns.
Font, on the other hand, is the absolute boom/bust description of an MMA fighter. He's alternated wins and losses for almost all of his career (he's on a two-fight winning streak now, though), and his scores have ended above 100 DKFP five times and below 20 DKFP three times. It's just an all-or-nothing approach with Font. I'd bet on Font had I to pick a winner here (most probably via KO or Sub, adding some tasty bonus points), but I think the stack is the play to go with when it comes to these two this Saturday.
DraftKings MMA Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Marcin Tybura, $7600 - vs. Greg Hardy
If Greg Hardy has done something since joining the UFC back in January 2019, that's to fight foes left and right. He's got inside an octagon seven times since his debut back then, averaging more than three fights per year and actually fighting five times in 2019 and (after this weekend) three in 2020. He's carrying a 4-2-1 overall record but he's also on a two-win streak, including an October KO inflicted in just over six minutes of fighting time.
Tybura isn't short of experience neither, although his run extends back to 2016. He's won his last three fights (all in 2020) via decision after getting KO'd twice in 2019. Those two KOs showed Tybura's floor (3 and 14 DKFP), but other than that (even in losses) Tybura has been able to score an average of around 75 DKFP per fight, which is a rather nice outcome.
This could be a close fight, and in fact, Vegas is giving both fighters very similar MLs and win probabilities. Given the cheaper price Tybura comes with on this one, and his great all-around, striking-and-grappling game, I think he could close Hardy's winning streak while finishing 2020 with a perfect 4-0 himself.
DraftKings MMA Welterweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Alex Moronos $7000 - vs. Anthony Pettis
For some reason, and somehow, Alex Moro turned to takedowns in his last fight and landed all three he attempted against Rhys McKee while getting a decision win. That put Morono's record since 2018 at 5-2, and it helped him rebound from getting mollywhopped by Khaos Williams in February when he was KO'd in under 30 seconds.
What can I say about Pettis now, though? Pettis needed all of four fights to get himself some gold when he defeated Benson Henderson for the LW belt in 2013 (!). He defended it successfully more than a year later but lost it the next time he fought, against Rafael dos Anjos. And that's title-winning Pettis for you, as he got a shot at the featherweight belt but missed on the weight limit and also dropped the fight to Max Holloway. Pettis is an even 3-3 since 2018, having defeated Donald Cerrone in his last fight.
Banking on Petis is the romantic play, but banking on Morono feels like the actual smart play. Pettis is the absolute favorite for this one, that's right. But Pettis is also tagged at $2.2K more than Morono and the truth is that only Khaos was able to stop Morono in his last five fights. Pettis has one KO win in 15 fights going back to August 2013... Barring that fluky loss, Morono is averaging 89 DKFP since 2018 to Pettis' 53 DKFP in the same span. Cheap play with monster upside.
