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We're back in the APEX for another one this weekend, and will be once more in two weeks time. After that, entering December, the UFC still has to confirm avenues starting with UFC on ESPN 19 next Dec. 5. Fear nothing, though, as this event is set in stone and will happen for real in just some mere hours from the moment you read this column.
It's about to be a month since the last time we saw someone put his belt on the line in the UFC, but the wait will be over sooner than you can realize. It was back in October when Khabib defeated a man for the 29th and final time in his career, retiring on top of the MMA mountain, both current and historic. It's now time for Figueiredo (who needed to tries to get the gold) to risk losing the gold, and for Valentina Shevchenko to try and successfully defend her title for the fourth consecutive time after she snatched it from Joanna Jedrzejczyk.
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy MMA, UFC lineup picks for DraftKings for UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez on 11/21/20. You can check out our FanDuel MMA DFS picks as well. These DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced fighters and value picks on DraftKings. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
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DraftKings MMA Flyweight (C) - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Deiveson Figueiredo (C), $9000 - vs. Alex Perez
It took years--and a nullified victory--for Figueiredo to finally get the belt, but after a KO that didn't count and then a submission also inside the first round against Benavidez, Deiveson got to lift the gold a little over four months ago last July. Figueiredo's UFC run to the title is rather impressive, with an 8-1 record to this point and his only loss coming via decision in 2019.
Alex Perez shouldn't get less praising, though. Perez debuted three years ago and still boasts an impeccable 6-0 record in the promotion. He has won a couple of bouts via KO and sub this year already, and this is his first attempt at beating the reigning champ.
These two have posted very similar stats in their fights, with both making heavy use of takedowns and landing 45%+ of them. The strikes aren't overly great in terms of volume for either of them, and the landing rates are, also, really close at around 60% for both. This fight should be closer than some are predicting, but Figueiredo is the favorite and current flyweight lord, so I gotta go with him.
DraftKings MMA Women's Flyweight (C) - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Valentina Shevchenko (C), $9600 - vs. Jennifer Maia
I wouldn't put anyone even remotely close to Amanda Nunes in the P4P ranks, but if there is a fighter close to Nunes' exploits that must be Shevchenko. Valentina's only losses came against Nunes, two times, back in 2016 and 2017, but other than that she's perfect, the current flyweight champ, and is entering her fourth title-defense fight after snatching the gold from Joanna in December 2018.
Jennifer Maia isn't bad, but she will probably look the part against such a beast. Maia is the no. 3 contender only below Jessica Andrade and Katlyn Chookagian, so there's that. Maia is 3-2 in the UFC and comes from a W against Joanne Calderwood this past August. Jennifer is all about striking and has attempted just two takedowns (landing one) in his five fights.
This is a very unbalanced fight. The money lines can't be more separated, and Shevchenko is as heavy a favorite as it gets. It'll be a true shocker to find Maia getting the win here, even more considering she's gone to decision four of five times, which wouldn't help her against Valentina either. Sadly for Maia, though, odds are she doesn't even make it that far in this one.
DraftKings MMA Welterweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Tim Means, $8000 - vs. Mike Perry
Robbie Lawler should have been Mike Perry's foe for this UFC 255 fight, but he got injured last month opening the door for veteran Tim Means to face Perry. Means last stepped into an octagon in August, got his first win in eight months, and is currently carrying a not-very-promising 3-5 in his last eight bouts going back to the start of 2017. Means is not new to the promo, though, with his debut coming in 2012.
Perry himself has five years of experience in the UFC, which isn't bad at all, but he's dropped more than a few fights since 2017. Perry is an even 5-5 in that span. He won his last one, sure, but prior to that, he had lost three of his past four fights. Perry is not a true early-finish threat these days, not having a KO win since 2017, and getting his victories on 15-minute decisions every time.
Both Perry and Means are active grapplers, but they don't really kill it in terms of being successful at landing takedowns. They rely more on striking, and they do so with similar landing rates slightly above 50%. This is a close fight, with Means coming in as the dog by little. I'd bet on these two battling for the full 15 minutes with Means edging his opponent in total fantasy points.
DraftKings MMA Women's Flyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Cynthia Calvillo, $8700 - vs. Katlyn Chookagian
Chookagian is a great fighter. In fact, she's above this weekend title-challenger Jennifer Maia in the WFW ranks coming in at no. 2. The problem with Chook, though, is that she already tried her luck against Valentina and got knocked out in under three rounds this past February. She proceeded to beat Shevchenko--Antonina, that is--next, but in October she lost again via KO against Jessica Andrade in less than one full round.
Calvillo, on the other hand, is holding a pretty nice 6-1-1 record in the UFC and has an incredibly rounded MMA style, shooting plenty of significant strikes per minute landing more than half of them, and she also makes heavy use of takedowns with a 60% success rate in almost 4 TD attempts per fight.
You can build an argument in favor of Chook because of his past, and her run toward title-contention, but when it truly mattered she always put on serious duds. Calvillo is the favorite here and has one of the highest ROI of the full event, which makes her slightly high price very affordable.
DraftKings MMA Light Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Mauricio Rua, $7700 - vs. Paul Craig
By the time Paul Craig was born, Mauricio Rua had already fought 20 times in the UFC. No, that's not true. But it is close. Mo Rua's first fight in the UFC came all the way back in 2007 against living legend Forrest Griffin in UFC 76 (!). Rua was always an up-and-down fighter alternating wins and losses steadily. Until for some reason, he (almost) couldn't stop winning starting in 2015. Since then, he's 5-1-1 and hasn't lost a single bout since 2018. No wonder, Rua lifted the gold in 2010 after beating Lyoto Machida.
Paul Craig stepped into the octagon for the first time nine years after Rua did so for the first time, and he also mostly alternated Ws and Ls. He, too, has found his mojo lately with a 3-1-1 record since the start of 2019. What is the most interesting thing about this fight, you say? Well, these two fought to a draw in November 2019, and no W was awarded that night.
This rematch will make these two face each other a year after their first affair. This equation has two solutions, depending of what you like the most. If you're a striking-believer, then Rua offers more upside, and who knows if he could even drop a KO on Craig. If you prefer to bank on grappling, then Craig is your man. As I always do, I try to leave early-finish bonus points out of my analysis to see who's the true favorite on equal terms, and Shogun Rua gets the edge by a mile over Craig. He's cheaper and brings the potential KO upside. Easy play.
